What I'll never understand about the draft

[Myk]

the other thing to consider is that the first round picks are actually slotted for salaries.

Here are the estimated four-year contract values for the 2017 NFL Draft first-round picks (with the figures of Forbes first, overthecap.com second and spotrac.com third):

1. Myles Garrett, Browns: $30,275,992 / $30,408,550 / $30,566,250
2. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears: $28,902,911 / $29,028,894 / $29,178,790
3. Solomon Thomas, 49ers: $28,029,149 / $29,028,894 / $28,295,878
4. Leonard Fournette, Jaguars: $27,030,534 / $28,150,940 / $27,286,806
5. Corey Davis, Western Michigan: $25,282,971 / $25,391,648 / $25,520,944
6. Jamal Adams, Jets: $22,162,335 / $22,256,084 / $22,367,629
7. Mike Williams, Chargers: $19,665,824 / $19,747,636 / $19,844,976
8. Christian McCaffrey, Panthers: $17,169,314 / $17,239,192 / $17,322,323
9. John Ross, Bengals: $17,044,347 / $17,113,760 / $17,196,047
10. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: $16,357,943 / $16,423,942 / $16,602,457
11. Marshon Lattimore, Saints: $15,296,937 / $15,357,848 / $15,430,339
12. Deshaun Watson, Texans: $13,799,018 / $13,852,776 / $13,916,735
13. Haason Reddick, Cardinals: $13,424,544 / $13,476,514 / $13,538,340
14. Derek Barnett, Eagles: $12,800,418 / $12,848,404 / $12,907,678
15. Malik Hooker, Colts: $12,550,782 / $12,598,556 / $12,655,428
16. Marlon Humphrey, Ravens: $11,801,811 / $11,846,014 / $11,898,614
17. Jonathan Allen, Redskins: $11,552,159 / $11,595,170 / $11,646,348
18. Adoree Jackson, Titans: $11,240,100 / $11,281,622 / $11,331,021
19. O.J. Howard, Buccaneers: $11,052,856 / $11,093,482 / $11,141,816
20. Garett Bolles, Broncos: $10,990,448 / $11,030,774 / $11,078,755
21. Jarrad Davis, Lions: $10,928,034 / $10,969,060 / $11,015,687
22. Charles Harris, Dolphins: $10,803,204 / $10,842,638 / $10,889,550
23. Evan Engram, Giants: $10,678,382 / $10,717,216 / $10,763,421
24. Gareon Conley, Raiders: $10,428,730 / $10,466,372 / $10,511,154
25. Jabrill Peppers, Browns: $10,303,908 / $10,340,946 / $10,258,873
26. Takkarist McKinley, Falcons: $10,179,063 / $10,215,524 / $10,258,873
27. Tre'Davious White, Bills: $10,054,256 / $10,090,102 / $10,132,759
28. Taco Charlton, Cowboys: $9,991,841 / $10,027,398 / $10,069,691
29. David Njoku, Browns: $9,491,010 / $9,524,166 / $9,563,615
30. T.J. Watt, Steelers: $9,225,787 / $9,257,666 / $9,295,615
31. Reuben Foster, 49ers: $9,003,620 / $9,034,450 / $9,071,121
32. Ryan Ramczyk, Saints: $8,860,569 / $8,890,720 / $8,926,572


If you take a guy at 8 that you might be able to get at 20, you are paying him 7 million more over the first 4 years.

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/04/2017_nfl_draft_how_much_each_f.html

Soooo, we could get a backup QB better and cheaper than we paid Glennon?

 

[TL1961]

The term "reach" means that you draft a player when that player would still be available with YOUR next pick. It doesn't mean you pick a player at 8 when he is projected at 15.

I don't agree with this. I think a "reach" can be simply drafting a guy at 8 who is expected to be available at 15, meaning you missed an opportunity not getting an extra pick if that was the guy you wanted. (Not always easy to simply trade down whenever you want, of course)

A lot of people here say if a guy is good, he was not a reach. But if you want a guy at your pick who can be had lower, and you trade down and acquire picks, THAT is how you win the draft. A GM can't be certain where every player is going to go, of course. But the guys who maximize their picks do so by having a good feel for where they can get the guy they want. It takes a bit of good fortune as well. It's not like one or two GM's "win the draft" every year.

But to grab a buy at 8 that could be picked at 23 is a reach, no matter how he plays. Not a 'bad pick", but a "reach".

 

[Washington]

Completely agree. The two most overused words regarding NFL drafts are "reach" and "value".

"He's not good value at #8 but would be fine at 13".

How do you know? Never in the history of NFL drafts have the players been picked in the order of how good their careers end up being. You can't even find a top 10 overall where that happened far less the whole draft.

So while obviously there are differences in prospects as to where you can recommend likely rounds players should be drafted in, the difference between a few picks up or down is a pointless argument. If it's the guy you really like, get him, whether he's mocked there or a handful of picks later.

Yeah, I agree with this.

Many people said Bullard was a value pick getting him in the 3rd. That is based on a player being taken later than projected versus earlier than projected (reach). Therefore, if this thread holds any water, both terms are equally useless. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

 

[TL1961]

One of my favorites is when a poster says "So and so will never be available in Round X."

Every year there are 50+ players going in the 1st round if you were to listen to CCS.

Or anyone else, including paid experts.

 

[gwharris2254]

Don't act like you weren't on that David Terrell hype train filling up your bathtub with sprite and playing splishy splashy in your David Terrell replica jersey during August of 2001

I think he was playin splishy splashy and doin alotta sniffin of sudsy bubbles after a beansy dinner

 

[iueyedoc]

It is likely that Pace grade Whitehair at about the same level as Spriggs and would be fine with either player.

When Floyd was available at 9 Pace's ranking probably had Floyd's value at or above the trade up value.

Agree. As much as he traded back, it suggests he had many players he graded similarly.

 

[gallagher]

I don't agree with this. I think a "reach" can be simply drafting a guy at 8 who is expected to be available at 15, meaning you missed an opportunity not getting an extra pick if that was the guy you wanted. (Not always easy to simply trade down whenever you want, of course)

A lot of people here say if a guy is good, he was not a reach. But if you want a guy at your pick who can be had lower, and you trade down and acquire picks, THAT is how you win the draft. A GM can't be certain where every player is going to go, of course. But the guys who maximize their picks do so by having a good feel for where they can get the guy they want. It takes a bit of good fortune as well. It's not like one or two GM's "win the draft" every year.

But to grab a buy at 8 that could be picked at 23 is a reach, no matter how he plays. Not a 'bad pick", but a "reach".

See, this is the line of thought when you are insulated from the risk. Fact is, teams "reach" all the time for the player they want, and in fact will trade up to do so. Talking about "could" and "may" is speculation, and playing based on that can cause you to lose out on a player that would have been a great fit. Teams act independent of your expectations and you have to be smart about making presumptions.

You do what it takes to get the guy who will make a difference on your team. If that means a bit if a reach, then reach. If that means trading up, then trade up (see: Aaron Donald). This isn't about getting a guy who could be had most of a round later, but more about taking a guy at 8 that you expect to be there at 15.

 

[Bear Pride]

So Minkah Fitzpatrick at 8 is fine, but Harold Landry at 8 is a reach?

Like I said, I could debate that 100 different ways .... Landry could be a reach in the sense that we might be able to add a 2nd and still draft him. However, as you say, if he's your guy, draft him at #8, as OLB's have the biggest 2nd contracts. He then becomes a good value and less of a reach.

Fitz, on the other hand, could be a reach cuz he doesn't have a set position, or maybe he's a good value cuz he can play multiple positions. :thinking:

:shrug:

 

[PAPABEAR77]

What makes someone a reach? Why do so many people use that word when they are so often wrong? I'll give you an example:

Just today someone makes a mock taking Harold Landry at 8, and the inevitable 'he's not worth the 8th pick.'

My question is why? Why would Landry, a player of an obvious need, be the wrong pick at #8 if he is Pace's guy? Sure, he could trade down and get Landry, but doesn't that assume a. there is a trade partner and b. that Landry wouldn't already be drafted by someone else?

If Landry, Davenport, or hell - even Isaiah Wynn is Pace's guy, what does it matter if he drafts them at #8 as opposed to later in the draft, simply because some people think it's a reach?

Well it’s not a science that’s for sure and your right in a sense we can be wrong.
Besides injuries you can tell if someone is worth the pick based on lots of things but the most is how they play against better players.
Landry has good numbers however I don’t think he fits fangio he likes length on the edge and speed not saying he isn’t fast however I do believe t the combine he didn’t do well. Not saying that transforms to the nfl however when your picking in the top ten you got to beast it all the time and Landry doesn’t fit that mold.
I watch him play vs. ND and he did show talent however he was handled by a good oline and not saying ND had a great team but the left side dominated and the nfl is only better.
I do believe that most people agree with the notion that he hasn’t proved he should be drafted top ten now probably round one but not top ten.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[bears5150]

It is a term that helps shield the ego of people who think they're the smartest person in the room, yet have no skin in the game.

I'm with you though - get the guy you want when you have the chance, and let history vindicate you.

Well Pace took Kevin @7 which I thought was a reach, I thought he did the same with Mitch by trading up. So if White fades away and Mitch does not pan out this year I will be on the Pace get fired team.

 

[Adipost]

I thought this was a VashalasX post from the title.

 

[SugarWalls]

Who is Shea Mcllelland?

Who is Ryan Tannehill?

Define the difference between bust and reach.

 

[Bear Pride]

Define the difference between bust and reach.

A 5" dick is a bust, an 8" dick's got some reach. So, is this good value? Ladies?

 

[Penny Traitor]

Golden Fleeced? Is that the same thing as Golden Showers? I swear I've heard that before.

next time you fuck Belichick in the ass let us know ....

A 5" dick is a bust, a 8" dick's got some reach.

Go home Pride Parade...you're drunk.

 

[Bear Pride]

Go home Pride Parade...you're drunk.

Nothing like the neighborhood douchebag to wreck my chill!

... and have no clue what they are talking about!

 

[Bear Pride]

Engarde!

 

[Penny Traitor]

Engarde!

 

[Bear Pride]

 

[Penny Traitor]

 

[Bear Pride]