What pick do you think the Cubs wind up with in the next June Draft?

[Discus fish salesman]

He pitched 7 innings.

That's an issue and has been a glaring red flag with him. If he wants a 1-2 year deal that's fine

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I'd say it's really important that from 2015-2020 he was pretty mediocre and injured a lot

Yes he was both those things. But he was never a bad pitcher, which is what I am arguing against.
We aren't giving him $30 million a year, but $15-20 per, which is very typical for his production level.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

That's an issue and has been a glaring red flag with him. If he wants a 1-2 year deal that's fine

Here is what I have been saying on this board for months. Give him a heavy front loaded contract. $100 million over 5 years. First two years pay him $30 million per. Last 3 years pay him around $15 million. Pay him a lot now, when we have loads of space and then take club /player option years the last 3 years.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Yes he was both those things. But he was never a bad pitcher, which is what I am arguing against.
We aren't giving him $30 million a year, but $15-20 per, which is very typical for his production level.

Nobody said he was a bad pitcher.

But his 7 years in the majors do not equate to deserving 15-20 mil per year, no matter what the market for pitching (which can be incredibly misguided) is.

He's been injured and not great before this year, where he was unhittable until July. Then he got bad/not great.

Here is what I have been saying on this board for months. Give him a heavy front loaded contract. $100 million over 5 years. First two years pay him $30 million per. Last 3 years pay him around $15 million. Pay him a lot now, when we have loads of space and then take club option years the last 3 years.

Or. Spend that $100 mil on Bauer for 2-3 years or that plus more for Stroman for 4+ instead of a lefty who has proven he's not good/injured/can be excellent for 1/2 of 1 year over his 7 year career when he's not re-inventing himself?

If you want a lefty that bad, I don't understand how Rodon is an immediate priority to James Paxton.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Bauer is more risky than Rodon. Plus we need two pitchers. Get Stroman for sure and add Rodon.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Bauer is more risky than Rodon. Plus we need two pitchers. Get Stroman for sure and add Rodon.

So I established that Bauer's situation is predicated upon his legal team. @CSF77 and I agreed if he settles/does not face criminal charges then he's an immediate priority.

Legal issues aside, I don't know how one can make the argument that Rodon is less risky than Bauer.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

So I established that Bauer's situation is predicated upon his legal team. @CSF77 and I agreed if he settles/does not face criminal charges then he's an immediate priority.

Legal issues aside, I don't know how one can make the argument that Rodon is less risky than Bauer.

Am I missing something? He signed a deal with LA through 2023.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Am I missing something? He signed a deal with LA through 2023.

He has an opt out after he got $38 mil year 1 of a $102 mil deal.

Dodgers only pay him $2 mil if they cut him (so he gets $40 mil in 1 year). Its widely expected (even before his legal situation) that this was a glorified 1 year, $40 mil deal and he opts out. This means does he get $30 mil on open market? The answer to that is an obvious 'yes.'

And to think he isn't worth that for ~2-4 more years as opposed to Carlos Rodon over 5+ for his body of work? You'd be insane not to think otherwise. Instead of giving big money to the lefty who's having a career year after 6 years of 'not good,' let's give it to the established guy who has years/the right chip on his shoulder to get better/can accept metrics can improve him as opposed to the old/dumb way of not wanting to change?

Now obviously, again--his legal issues have to clear. If that means settling idgaf. Even if he digs in/litigation continues or he doesn't opt out/LA doesn't dump him--not prioritizing Stroman with knowledge Bauer isn't available over Rodon would be criminal malpractice if your objective is TOR level guys.

If you're expecting Brennan Davis to the OF next year and to contribute as expected of a top prospect, and cubs to actually be buyers this winter, one SP at big $ and a position player at the same time--Rodon makes sense how over other names when you're trying to be a big market team and bounce back?

If you give Rodon anything more than 2 years, you're taking an enormous risk.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I just don't trust Bauer at all. Even if he is found innocent, dude has some obvious issues that you stay away from. Addison Russel type stuff, and the Cubs know better than to try that again.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

I get that after two years Rodon is a risk, that is why after year 2 you do opt outs and front load the contract like Dodgers did with Bauer.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

I just don't trust Bauer at all. Even if he is found innocent, dude has some obvious issues that you stay away from. Addison Russel type stuff, and the Cubs know better than to try that again.

This isn't unreasonable. Even though they sure didn't care about Chapman...

Fine. Take Bauer out of the equation. Rodon still isn't a priority if Stroman's on the market and the true objective is TOR.

I get that after two years Rodon is a risk, that is why after year 2 you do opt outs and front load the contract like Dodgers did with Bauer.

That's what Bauer wanted. That's why he left Cinci. He bet on himself to still be a CY candidate for several more years, and opting out means someone will pay you more, regardless of short term because he's in the conversation for top 3 of Cy Young.

 

[CSF77]

I will put it out in layman's terms.

Jed has been after Stroman since he was on the Jays.

Stroman said it was no big deal with the current Cubs situation.

No Q offer involved.

Sorry Bauer or not I believe this is the #1 target. I really didn't know that the Cubs were on his jock for that long.

Soooo

Stroman #1.
Rodon #2

The rest it depends. I'm not sure if Tom cares on Bauer or not to be honest. The Chapman argument is a bit unfair. He was a rent and it got a ring. And he didn't come back. So we are not talking about a fresh signing in a low pressure situation.


So my viewpoint is Jed targets Marcus and pushes this one hard as he has wanted him. And he has the payroll to invest. And Marcus doesn't have a injury or head case (wobble rod and all) history going in

 

[CSF77]

Other than that the Cubs really need to push Kyle back to #2. What is he 32? He is not going in the right direction right now.

This is my personal take BTW.

Next year Jed could sign Marcus and has Kyle as the 2 and Steel as the 3. 4-5 would be a battle.

That year would be about getting the next wave sorted.

AAA Kilian
AA Marquez, Herz and Wicks

Kilian is a 45 grade. About the same as Steel and Thompson.
Herz is also a 45 but that may change after this year.
Wicks is a 50 and he is the easiest to predict as he has clean mechanics and his main off is a low injury rate change up that might be the best one in the minors
Marquez needs a year to prove himself. I can see a pitch limit going in. Pen would be a safe bet but he is a 55 grade arm.

 

[CSF77]

 

[knoxville7]

Which year do you think matters most? 2021 or 2015?
Which year do you think matters more? Years he pitched 120 plus innings or years he pitched less than 50 innings?

By your own logic, none of the years matter. Only going forward matters. But which result do you think you’re more likely to get? The 6 out of 7 type? Or the 1 out of 7 type? Let’s bring odds into this too

you have gone completely off the deep end the last few weeks, bro

 

[CSF77]

I think the real reason no team wants him.

Pitching coach:. I hate breaking up your moment with your wobble dick but could you shag some balls.

Shit I never said short....Stop!!!!

No I don't care if acting like you are Ozzy Smith is part of your routine. Hey no black flips!!!

 

[Diehardfan]

By your own logic, none of the years matter. Only going forward matters. But which result do you think you’re more likely to get? The 6 out of 7 type? Or the 1 out of 7 type? Let’s bring odds into this too

you have gone completely off the deep end the last few weeks, bro

The problem is that there are people here that think they can fix things over night. That's just not gonna happen, there are just way too many holes to fill, besides no one wants Hoyer to be a Kenny Williams. They need to sign guys short term that can hopefully play well then flip them to a contender at the deadline....sorry, a guy like who walks the injury tightrope every year like Rodon does not fit that MO. Tough to move guys that are on the IR. You roll the dice on a guy like Rodon when you are ready to make a run at a WS spot.....that won't be happening for awhile.