Which QB pick is most likely to "Trubisky" the team that picks them?

[Spitta Andretti]

I've been thinking this as well. Everyone assumes that Lawrence is the surest thing but I am not so sure. I mean you can make an argument that he has always been a front runner and in the games that were tough, he did wilt a bit (Looked bad against Ohio State x2 and LSU). Basically, when Clemson was up, he looked great but when they were playing from behind, he wasn't as good.

He isn't going into an Aaron Rodgers or Mahomes type of situation (basically a pre-built playoff team). He is going to a place where he is going to lose alot the first 1-3 years and frankly, we just don't know how he will react to the losing.

I hear the Luck comparison's alot and from a talent level, i get it. But from a competition level, Luck was in a dogfight every single week he played....Lawrence, like Alabama QB's, almost always played with huge leads....

My point exactly.

He might not be terrible but all this hype surrounding him is going to be tough to live up to. On top of turning a perennial loser like Jacksonville around

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Whichever QB the 49ers take would have to be the answer, no? Just based on the trade?

Unless someone makes a deal with the Jets.

In any case, I'm not sure what everyone thinks the expectations of Trevor Lawrence is, but it's my opinion that he'll never live up to them. Especially when Urban comes down with another medical condition when things get tough.

 

[Black Rainbow]

Lawrence is a winner and will live up to the "hype" just like Manning and Luck did.

Once in a decade guy.

 

[Montucky]

Whichever QB the 49ers take would have to be the answer, no? Just based on the trade?

Unless someone makes a deal with the Jets.

In any case, I'm not sure what everyone thinks the expectations of Trevor Lawrence is, but it's my opinion that he'll never live up to them. Especially when Urban comes down with another medical condition when things get tough.

The only way three first round picks on player is worth it is if its a great quarterback or a truly generational talent. Like for sure Aaron Donald would have been worth three firsts, but the odds of finding Aaron Donald are even lower than the odds of finding a franchise quarterback.

So yeah, I cant see any way third overall is anything other than The Guy.

 

[Midway Fields]

I love all 3.

Trevor Lawrence is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Was the #1/2 overall high school recruit and lived up to expectations at Clemson. I believe he will continue to live up to the hype as a thoroughbred.

Justin Fields is also a thoroughbred. Was the top high school recruit w/ Lawrence and all he did was produce at an elite level. Love his toughness and overcoming adversity beating Clemson. Look at his td/int ratio and the fact that he is a freak of nature. I’m all fucking in and think NFL is absolutely fucking nuts if he turns out to be QB5.

Zach Wilson I also love. He can put the ball wherever he wants at whatever trajectory/velocity he wants from any platform/arm angle he wants. His ability to throw the pigskin is Rodgers/Mahomes esque.

If I had to pick bust I’d say Wilson due to durability concerns as he is not a naturally big guy and he’s going to the shithole Jets.

@Aesopian, please bookmark as this thread will be a gem. You wannabe OldCCSTakesExposed dork.

 

[Nelly]

I don't get the Lance hype at all. One big year at a small school with bad downfield accuracy. When it comes to all the guys in this draft he most closely profiles to Trubisky. He can run a little faster so there's that. But I think unless you have a freak athlete for the position, running ability to completely overrated. You need Lamar Jackson or Mike Vick type running ability to make that a central point of your quarterback's game. I wouldn't even draft Lance 20th.

Lawrence has a good chance of falling short of expectations but it's hard to see him being anything less than a reliable starter.

I'm assuming that Mac Jones is going to SF at #3 with Shanahan wanting him to be Matt Ryan. Ryan was MVP in 2016 so that'd be pretty great if they got that from him, or even just regular Matt Ryan type production from him. His career passer rating is 94.5. It's pretty reasonable to make that comparison.

If Zach Wilson turns out to be akin to Baker Mayfield, are you happy? Mayfield has a 94 passer rating last year. Him and Fields seem to be ones with the most variability to me. I like Fields, and assuming he falls out of the top 3, would be the only one I'd want the Bears to get should they make a move (they won't though).

People do this every year though: looking at the class in isolation and thinking every one of them can be good. You're most likely to get two of them be something from solid to great, one of them to be replaceable and the other two to bust relative to their draft position. Bust potential to me, in order, would be 1. Lance 2. Wilson 3. Fields.

 

[bears5150]

whoever the Bears select

 

[aeronaut]

People do this every year though: looking at the class in isolation and thinking every one of them can be good. You're most likely to get two of them be something from solid to great, one of them to be replaceable and the other two to bust relative to their draft position.

Statistically, yes. But look at past drafts 1st rounders. 2016, Goff, Wentz, both on their second team. 2017, Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Tru on his second team, Mahomes MVP/SB champ, Watson out of play for now. Won't go any farther forward than that, too soon to tell. 2015, Winston, Mariotta, both on second team as backups. 2014, Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater. Teddy is the only one with a semblance of a career now. 2013 EJ Manuel, oh right, him. 2012 Luck, RG3, Tannehill, Weeden, pretty good class, but still just two hits. 2011 Newton, Gabbert, Lockett, Ponder (Prior supplemental), one hit, then meh. 2010 Bradford, Tebow, meh. 2009 Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman; Stafford good, rest meh. 2008 Ryan, Flacco, both been to Super Bowl, both near retirement.

In any given year there might be no good QBs, several, one, or a few. It's random. You do your research, spend your pick, and hope for the best.

 

[pseudonym]

Jones. These three are going to do well, Lawrence REALLY well.