Who are the mocks wrong on?

[Discus fish salesman]

Too low - Darius Robinson, barton, Michael hall, maason Smith, almost every wr everyone projects in rd 3-4.

Too high - jayden daniels, fashanu, 2nd/3rd round G/C prospects outside of the ndsu G that is actually being projected too low

 

[bamainatlanta]

My guy Braden Fiske slides into the end of the 1st round or top of the 2nd.

I thought it was Braydone Fiske

 

[RuszBron1]

Sedrick Van Pran not getting much love. He will surprise lots of folks in the good way..

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Sedrick Van Pran not getting much love. He will surprise lots of folks in the good way..

He'll probably get drafted later than people are projecting him would be my guess

 

[KittiesKorner]

Which mocks

 

[DB012031]

CW is the only elite tier QB prospect. Every other QB has serious question marks.

Maye struggles with his accuracy at times and has pretty mediocre pocket presence for a guy who is projected as a pocket passer.

Jayden Daniels has that Justin Fields tendency to be one or two reads and then try to scramble rather than going through his progressions properly.

Michael Penix has an awkward shot put throwing motion (although that worked for Phillip Rivers).

J.J. McCarthy is extremely difficult to even form an opinion about based on his film because they just didn't ask him to do very much NFL style reads or difficult throws.

Bo Nix also just doesn't put any difficult throws on film that would make me excited about drafting him.

I'm going to push back a bit on the JJ McCarthy comment. Harbaugh absolutely runs an NFL style offense and JJ made plenty of NFL reads and difficult throws.

Now, what can be questioned is that because Michigan had such a dominating rushing offense AND a dominating defense, very rarely did JJ have to throw 30+ times to win the game and make those kinds of throws day in and day out. So, he has done them, just not at the frequency that many would like.

Also need to keep in mind JJ is the youngest of all the QB's coming out this year (just turned 21). He is best suited for going to a team that would sit him a year (like Mahomes did and no this isn't a Mahomes comparison) or a team that has a dominate running game/Oline, so he can be brought along slower.

He was one of the top QB's in all of college football in completion %, 3rd Down Conversions, 3rd down yards per attempt, and TD to INT ratio. Yes, he didn't have the number of attempts that others had, but he also didn't have to because of their defense and rushing attack. Plus, if you are an intangibles guy, JJ has that in spades (Coaches love him, Teammates love him, always positive, Team first attitude, etc).

 

[SugarWalls]

I'm going to push back a bit on the JJ McCarthy comment. Harbaugh absolutely runs an NFL style offense and JJ made plenty of NFL reads and difficult throws.

Now, what can be questioned is that because Michigan had such a dominating rushing offense AND a dominating defense, very rarely did JJ have to throw 30+ times to win the game and make those kinds of throws day in and day out. So, he has done them, just not at the frequency that many would like.

Also need to keep in mind JJ is the youngest of all the QB's coming out this year (just turned 21). He is best suited for going to a team that would sit him a year (like Mahomes did and no this isn't a Mahomes comparison) or a team that has a dominate running game/Oline, so he can be brought along slower.

He was one of the top QB's in all of college football in completion %, 3rd Down Conversions, 3rd down yards per attempt, and TD to INT ratio. Yes, he didn't have the number of attempts that others had, but he also didn't have to because of their defense and rushing attack. Plus, if you are an intangibles guy, JJ has that in spades (Coaches love him, Teammates love him, always positive, Team first attitude, etc).

So you’re pushing back on @Bort comments of JJ being difficult to judge because he didn’t really throw the ball a lot by citing the exact reasons it is difficult to judge McCarthy?

 

[DB012031]

So you’re pushing back on @Bort comments of JJ being difficult to judge because he didn’t really throw the ball a lot by citing the exact reasons it is difficult to judge McCarthy?

Not entirely. I am not pushing back that he is hard to judge because he didn't throw 30+ times a game. I was more pushing back on the comment that he didn't make NFL throws and reads. He absolutely did those as Harbaugh runs NFL route trees with his WR and TE's. He was still making those reads about 20 times a game.

 

[SugarWalls]

Not entirely. I am not pushing back that he is hard to judge because he didn't throw 30+ times a game. I was more pushing back on the comment that he didn't make NFL throws and reads. He absolutely did those as Harbaugh runs NFL route trees with his WR and TE's. He was still making those reads about 20 times a game.

So you think every one of jj’s drop backs (essentially averaging out to 20 a game) was NFL quality? Interesting. Is your Michigan tattoo on your arm or butt?

 

[Shepard]

Give me a guy that the mock drafts (or fans) are too high or low on in your opinion.

I’m going Chop Robinson. If I had never seen a mock or looked at stats I would think he’s a top 15 pick. To me the athleticism just jumps off the “tape”.

Johnny Newton.

He's kicked the shit out of the B1G the last two years and I rarely see him go in the top 20 in mocks. He didn't test, but he his production for an interior lineman is insane. Good luck running on him and whether or not you buy into "QB Hurries" (per PFF if he's had 64 the past two years)...he had 20 QB HITS in '22.

He's a beast and the ideal 3-Tech. No idea why he isn't mentioned as top 10 pick more than he is.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

Johnny Newton.

He's kicked the shit out of the B1G the last two years and I rarely see him go in the top 20 in mocks. He didn't test, but he his production for an interior lineman is insane. Good luck running on him and whether or not you buy into "QB Hurries" (per PFF if he's had 64 the past two years)...he had 20 QB HITS in '22.

He's a beast and the ideal 3-Tech. No idea why he isn't mentioned as top 10 pick more than he is.

Think Newton is because he has an injury. Broken bone in his foot or something. Otherwise yeah he definitely should be talked about more.

 

[BeerFan]

I am old school. "Don't count your chickens before they hatch." It just takes one unexpected trade or pick to throw drafts into a tizzy. Heck most can't get the first 6 picks correct. Why do you think any after that will be correct? It just takes 1 team to trade up into the top 5/6 to throw it all off. and does every year. Much like an NCAA Cinderella BB team . Generally, if "Mock" is in the title, I don't read it. IMO, after the first 2-3 picks, who knows.
But I'm an old curmudgeon.

 

[DB012031]

So you think every one of jj’s drop backs (essentially averaging out to 20 a game) was NFL quality? Interesting. Is your Michigan tattoo on your arm or butt?

If you play in an "NFL" offense, as Michigan (and Georgia for that matter) are designed, then yes, then every drop back is essentially of an NFL quality, because of how the system is designed.

Now, is your competition always going to be at an NFL level? Well the answer to that is no, its not, and I think that is pretty clear.

However, an "NFL" style offense is still an NFL style offense, regardless if a college team uses it or an NFL team uses it. It has the same reads, same route trees, same option routes, same audibles depending on what the defense shows.

I am really failing to see your argument at this point.

 

[Collins77]

Bowers....he won't be drafted before 20.

 

[TL1961]

I am old school. "Don't count your chickens before they hatch." It just takes one unexpected trade or pick to throw drafts into a tizzy. Heck most can't get the first 6 picks correct. Why do you think any after that will be correct? It just takes 1 team to trade up into the top 5/6 to throw it all off. and does every year. Much like an NCAA Cinderella BB team . Generally, if "Mock" is in the title, I don't read it. IMO, after the first 2-3 picks, who knows.
But I'm an old curmudgeon.

Well, it's a numbers game. If we project 4 QBs, 2 WR, 1 DE an 1 OT going top 8, the surprise can be someone expected to take DE trades to a team who grabs WR 3, for example. But then the DE falls.

At the end of the day, as long as 3 QBs go top 8, and especially if 4 QBs go top 8, there will be premier players available at 9.

And even at 11 or 12, making a small move down a practical move.

You're certainly right that there's always a chance for a surprise. But in this draft, given the players expected to go Top 10-12 and how they align with the Bears' needs, a surprise - like someone drafting a CB or S higher than anyone projects - would benefit the Bears rather than hurt them.

 

[TL1961]

Think Newton is because he has an injury. Broken bone in his foot or something. Otherwise yeah he definitely should be talked about more.

I've seen him projected to go as high as #14 and as low as #30. There are a lot of players at the premium positions that can push a DT down. But whoever ends up drafting him will not be disappointed.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

I've seen him projected to go as high as #14 and as low as #30. There are a lot of players at the premium positions that can push a DT down. But whoever ends up drafting him will not be disappointed.

My only concern would be injury. Otherwise think he’s going to be really good

 

[Bort]

I'm going to push back a bit on the JJ McCarthy comment. Harbaugh absolutely runs an NFL style offense and JJ made plenty of NFL reads and difficult throws.

Now, what can be questioned is that because Michigan had such a dominating rushing offense AND a dominating defense, very rarely did JJ have to throw 30+ times to win the game and make those kinds of throws day in and day out. So, he has done them, just not at the frequency that many would like.

Also need to keep in mind JJ is the youngest of all the QB's coming out this year (just turned 21). He is best suited for going to a team that would sit him a year (like Mahomes did and no this isn't a Mahomes comparison) or a team that has a dominate running game/Oline, so he can be brought along slower.

He was one of the top QB's in all of college football in completion %, 3rd Down Conversions, 3rd down yards per attempt, and TD to INT ratio. Yes, he didn't have the number of attempts that others had, but he also didn't have to because of their defense and rushing attack. Plus, if you are an intangibles guy, JJ has that in spades (Coaches love him, Teammates love him, always positive, Team first attitude, etc).

I try to focus on 3rd and long situations, throwing under pressure, 2 minute drill situations, and things like that when doing my analysis, and there just weren't many of those situations for McCarthy. And I've learned over the years not to give a QB too much credit for repeatedly completing passes to wide open receivers from a clean pocket.

I'm not even saying McCarthy is a bad prospect, just that he hasn't put enough on film for me to form a strong opinion about him.

 

[Xplosive]

I'm going to push back a bit on the JJ McCarthy comment. Harbaugh absolutely runs an NFL style offense and JJ made plenty of NFL reads and difficult throws.

Now, what can be questioned is that because Michigan had such a dominating rushing offense AND a dominating defense, very rarely did JJ have to throw 30+ times to win the game and make those kinds of throws day in and day out. So, he has done them, just not at the frequency that many would like.

Also need to keep in mind JJ is the youngest of all the QB's coming out this year (just turned 21). He is best suited for going to a team that would sit him a year (like Mahomes did and no this isn't a Mahomes comparison) or a team that has a dominate running game/Oline, so he can be brought along slower.

He was one of the top QB's in all of college football in completion %, 3rd Down Conversions, 3rd down yards per attempt, and TD to INT ratio. Yes, he didn't have the number of attempts that others had, but he also didn't have to because of their defense and rushing attack. Plus, if you are an intangibles guy, JJ has that in spades (Coaches love him, Teammates love him, always positive, Team first attitude, etc).

I'm going to be pissed if JJ ends up in Minnesota, I think he has as excellent chance at being successful with a team that doesn't ruin his confidence by throwing him to the wolves in his first season.

 

[DB012031]

I try to focus on 3rd and long situations, throwing under pressure, 2 minute drill situations, and things like that when doing my analysis, and there just weren't many of those situations for McCarthy. And I've learned over the years not to give a QB too much credit for repeatedly completing passes to wide open receivers from a clean pocket.

I'm not even saying McCarthy is a bad prospect, just that he hasn't put enough on film for me to form a strong opinion about him.

100% fair points. I get it. I've watched JJ since he came to Michigan (I a Big Ten guy) so what I have seen after all those games is a guy that I think may end up being the best out of this year's group of QB's.

Now, I do NOT think he is going to have those unworldly stats of Mahomes, Allen, Peyton Manning, year in and year out. I think he will be more early Brady or Kirk Cousins like in that he is very efficient (67-69% completion) 25-30 TD's, low INT and 3500-4K yards per year. He will have to win an occasional game simply on his arm, but he is going to have a more complete team around him, instead of everything always on his shoulders.