Will Daron Payne hit free agency?

[dennehy]

Who says Payne is bad against the run? To my mind that is flat out wrong, his run defense is why he was a considered a very valuable player during his firs couple years when he wasn't a great pass rusher.

Dremont Jones is going to cost at least $12m AAV by himself, and if we are to gauge Ogunjobi by what Pace was going to pay him ,$13m, or what he got paid this past year , $8m, they are nowhere close to $16m combined. Jones makes some splash plays every game, but he also get dominated a bunch. Plus I dn't think there's any way Ogunjobi is going to come here on the cheap after what happened last off season. Although that is speculation.

 

[Britbuffguy]

He’s the player the majority of Bears fans want, so no, he will not hit FA.

With the Texans loss, the Kevin hire...the Bears seem to be on a weird winning streak. Who knows?

 

[knoxville7]

As usual you are projecting here. I’m fine with the disagreement but your obnoxious delivery is tired. You can disagree without coming off like an adolescent.

For what it’s worth, Larry O and Jones estimated contracts are less combined than Paynes on spotrac, so your opinion on them being overpaid, is…your opinion. All of this discussion is speculation anyway.

Again, me disagreeing with you somehow = a childish response from you. No shock there

And I never said that their two contracts together would be more than Paynes. So not seeing your point there

Those two can still get over paid without equalling paynes contract. It’s not some mutually exclusive thing

And at least you’re finally realizing that all you’re doing is speculating and guessing. Hopefully sometime you’ll realize that your speculation isn’t any more valid than mine or anyone else’s

 

[knoxville7]

Who says Payne is bad against the run? To my mind that is flat out wrong, his run defense is why he was a considered a very valuable player during his firs couple years when he wasn't a great pass rusher.

Dremont Jones is going to cost at least $12m AAV by himself, and if we are to gauge Ogunjobi by what Pace was going to pay him ,$13m, or what he got paid this past year , $8m, they are nowhere close to $16m combined. Jones makes some splash plays every game, but he also get dominated a bunch. Plus I dn't think there's any way Ogunjobi is going to come here on the cheap after what happened last off season. Although that is speculation.

Payne is terrible against the run and misses tackles according to @Enasic

Must be why he is like the most in demand potential FA this offseason, huh? Lol

 

[dennehy]

This is from from his rookie year, when he was barely 21. He was an absolute stud against the run.

He is probably asked to do some different things now, but it would be very unusual for someone to age from 21 to 25 and get worse against the run (minus injuries, which Payne has not had). He's also been very good against the run when I have watched him play. I think it would be worthwhile to watch Dre'Mont Jones against the run too. the difference is striking, as Jones gets washed out a lot.

 

[Enasic]

Again, me disagreeing with you somehow = a childish response from you. No shock there

And I never said that their two contracts together would be more than Paynes. So not seeing your point there

Those two can still get over paid without equalling paynes contract. It’s not some mutually exclusive thing

And at least you’re finally realizing that all you’re doing is speculating and guessing. Hopefully sometime you’ll realize that your speculation isn’t any more valid than mine or anyone else’s

Disagreements are fine. You should read back your initial responses and ask yourself if you’re simply disagreeing and offering an argument or….being obnoxious with no substance. That has been your MO around here for quite some time. The only childish comments on this have been coming from you. All we’re doing is discussing sports. It’s not that serious

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

The opportunity for a significant payday for Payne looms this offseason. That’s not news on the surface. Despite not engaging in extension talks with Payne this summer, the Commanders aim to keep their defensive tackle tandem together.

“We’re going to do our due diligence on the situation and work to get something done with Daron,” a team official, who was granted anonymity for competitive reasons, told The Athletic. “We’re hopeful that we can keep him in Washington.”

We know the team will have to consider the costs of paying a veteran quarterback and extending Sweat and Chase Young. The subplot is the difficulty of projecting the rising cost for defensive tackles.

From a quick glance at the current market, one might guess Payne’s deal would land in the same range as the four-year, $72 million extension Allen signed before the 2021 season. But those around the league forecasting where the DT market might go told The Athletic to think higher.

Two agents representing defensive tackles due for new deals — who requested anonymity so as to not reveal their clients — told The Athletic they think the next wave of contracts will push past the range of $21 million annually, a threshold that only the Rams’ incomparable Aaron Donald has exceeded.

“It won’t be close. Significantly north of ($21 million annually),” one said. “People have f—ed with the tackles compared to the D-ends for too long.”

 

[Enasic]

Who says Payne is bad against the run? To my mind that is flat out wrong, his run defense is why he was a considered a very valuable player during his firs couple years when he wasn't a great pass rusher.

Dremont Jones is going to cost at least $12m AAV by himself, and if we are to gauge Ogunjobi by what Pace was going to pay him ,$13m, or what he got paid this past year , $8m, they are nowhere close to $16m combined. Jones makes some splash plays every game, but he also get dominated a bunch. Plus I dn't think there's any way Ogunjobi is going to come here on the cheap after what happened last off season. Although that is speculation.

I’ll have to dig up the stats on Paynes poor run defense and miss tackling.

Spotrac lists Larry O’s value at 3.5 mil per. He had a down year in Pitt in a scheme not really suited for him. They list Jones’ value at 7 mil per. Obviously not concrete.

 

[dennehy]

I’ll have to dig up the stats on Paynes poor run defense and miss tackling.

Spotrac lists Larry O’s value at 3.5 mil per. He had a down year in Pitt in a scheme not really suited for him. They list Jones’ value at 7 mil per. Obviously not concrete.

I know what spotrac lists them at. They also had Payne at $14 until today or yesterday, then moved it to $19.

Stats aren't going to tell you much about an IDL's run defense. Their job really isn't to make tackles, although Payne does make a ton of them including 18 TFL this past year, top 7 in the league and I think the best for IDL.

It's best to watch them to get a sense of their impact.

 

[Enasic]

I know what spotrac lists them at. They also had Payne at $14 until today or yesterday, then moved it to $19.

Stats aren't going to tell you much about an IDL's run defense. Their job really isn't to make tackles, although Payne does make a ton of them including 18 TFL this past year, top 7 in the league and I think the best for IDL.

It's best to watch them to get a sense of their impact.

I agree with your last part. I obviously don’t watch every WAS game lol but I’ve seen him play quite a few times.

Any concerns on his play without Allen? Do you think that is going to help his play, hurt his play, or make no impact?

Also, any concerns that prior to this season (contract year) he did not have more than 5 sacks or 6 TFL? Do you think he’ll sustain his current production after he gets paid and without Jonathan Allen? And are you confident enough to pay him 20+ mil per season over 5 years?

 

[dennehy]

I agree with your last part. I obviously don’t watch every WAS game lol but I’ve seen him play quite a few times.

Any concerns on his play without Allen? Do you think that is going to help his play, hurt his play, or make no impact?

Also, any concerns that prior to this season (contract year) he did not have more than 5 sacks or 6 TFL? Do you think he’ll sustain his current production after he gets paid and without Jonathan Allen? And are you confident enough to pay him 20+ mil per season over 5 years?

I am confident, because I think he's a really good player. He's easily the best and most consistent IDL on the market this year. He can play 1 or 3 tech and he can two gap. His stats went up this year because I think they had him playing more one gap, asked him to get up field rather than take stack and shed and take on double teams.

When I watch him he's very, very difficult to move out of his gap, and that doesn't have much to do with Allen. Of course you never know how someone will react when they get paid but that's the same for everyone.

Now, I would rather have Buckner, but that's obviously a different question.

 

[Enasic]

I am confident, because I think he's a really good player. He's easily the best and most consistent IDL on the market this year. He can play 1 or 3 tech and he can two gap. His stats went up this year because I think they had him playing more one gap, asked him to get up field rather than take stack and shed and take on double teams.

When I watch him he's very, very difficult to move out of his gap, and that doesn't have much to do with Allen. Of course you never know how someone will react when they get paid but that's the same for everyone.

Now, I would rather have Buckner, but that's obviously a different question.

I like it. I want to jump on the Payne train but I have more questions than I’d like when giving someone likely 22-25 mil per season. The GTD money will be enormous. On the flip side, I could see it working out if he doesn’t become complacent.

 

[dennehy]

I like it. I want to jump on the Payne train but I have more questions than I’d like when giving someone likely 22-25 mil per season. The GTD money will be enormous. On the flip side, I could see it working out if he doesn’t become complacent.

Yeah, to me they have to spend on at least one top tier dude this FA season, and he is the best one out there at an impact position imo. Probably won't be there in March, unfortunately. $22 is a ton, but they would still be able to get two really go OL and fill holes elsewhere even if they gave that to Payne.

 

[BearFanJohn]

Know a reasonable but big Washington fan that swears he is getting tagged and that Washington can afford it, He may be using fuzzy math, I don’t know.

 

[Enasic]

Yeah, to me they have to spend on at least one top tier dude this FA season, and he is the best one out there at an impact position imo. Probably won't be there in March, unfortunately. $22 is a ton, but they would still be able to get two really go OL and fill holes elsewhere even if they gave that to Payne.

If they’re going to spend big on someone, I’d rather go after Hargrave who while older, probably would take a 3 year deal. Perhaps with an out after year 2. I think he’s the better overall player and wouldn’t take the same long term commitment/salary (in theory)

 

[knoxville7]

Disagreements are fine. You should read back your initial responses and ask yourself if you’re simply disagreeing and offering an argument or….being obnoxious with no substance. That has been your MO around here for quite some time. The only childish comments on this have been coming from you. All we’re doing is discussing sports. It’s not that serious

Literally only you seem to have issues with me on here

I was discussing sports and disagreed with you on your comment. Nothing more. You seem to want to make it about something else, maybe because you realize you made a dumb comment now. I dunno

 

[baselman1974]

I don’t know how Washington will afford a new QB and Payne at the same time. Also Snyder being forced to sell the team. Why would he give a shit about paying Payne when he is forced to sell the team and save $100 million from his future salary.

Unless Snyder sells the team in this off-season, then I don’t see Washington re-signing Payne. This is the same owner who was short changing other owners for his home attendance proceeds. Snyder is a vile cheap Fuck asshole.

 

[Enasic]

Literally only you seem to have issues with me on here

I was discussing sports and disagreed with you on your comment. Nothing more. You seem to want to make it about something else, maybe because you realize you made a dumb comment now. I dunno

Hilarious take. Might want to review my conversation with @dennehy to see what an honest adult conversation looks like with differing opinions. If you can’t see the difference between the two, I’m not in the least bit surprised, but I don’t know what to tell you.

 

[dennehy]

If they’re going to spend big on someone, I’d rather go after Hargrave who while older, probably would take a 3 year deal. Perhaps with an out after year 2. I think he’s the better overall player and wouldn’t take the same long term commitment/salary (in theory)

Not me. I don't think he's as good of a player, and at 5 years older I'd say he's more likely to not play up to a contract, even at 3 years vs. 5.

That said still would be an exciting signing.

 

[Montucky]

Is there any good reason they don't tag Payne though?