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My favorite teams
(1) DJ Moore's 2023 season was phenomenal. 96 receptions, 1364 yards and 8 TDs were all personal bests. As a bona fide #1 WR with a rookie QB, he would normally be favored to receive the lion's share of receptions again. And yet a reasonable person could believe that his share of offense will go down; Poles saw to it that Williams is flush with good WR talent, Swift is a quality safety valve in the passing game, and Kmet is no slouch at TE. This board could fairly debate whether Keenan Allen had a better season than Moore; his 108 receptions, 1243 yards and 7 TDs were spread over 13 games where Moore suited up for all 17 games. While it is certainly achievable for these two receivers to equal last year's output while competing for passes, I think we can all agree that it is a tall order to put on a rookie QB.
(2) Getting two receiving options to cross the 1000 yard threshold is not unheard of - Tampa Bay, Miami, SF and Philly all accomplished this last year (this list is not meant to be exhaustive, and is only to demonstrate). Among them, only SF had their third option cross 600 yards (Aiyuk -1342, Kittle - 1020, Samuel - 892).
(3) 600 yards over 17 games is 35-36 yards per game. I personally think that Odunze is going to top that number. Given that most teams struggle to feed three receiving threats, and that Odunze should challenge the receivers above him on the depth chart for opportunities, it stands to reason that either Allen or Moore (or both) will see a drop in production. Within the same context, Kmet should have the same expectation of topping 36 yards per game.
TL;DR: And so to the topic question - will either of Chicago's starting WR keep pace with last year's production?
(My Thoughts) I personally see Allen being a security blanket that lives between 8-10 yards downfield. He will have an impact as the receiver who just churns out first downs, but I expect that his overall share of the offense to go down. By the end of the year, I expect his opportunities to go down while Odunze's goes up. If I were trying to entice the most bets, I would probably set the over/under for Allen at 75 catches for 900 yards, with more than 50% of his production to come in the first half of the year. For comparison, I think that Moore is going to increase his volume and top 1500 yards.
(2) Getting two receiving options to cross the 1000 yard threshold is not unheard of - Tampa Bay, Miami, SF and Philly all accomplished this last year (this list is not meant to be exhaustive, and is only to demonstrate). Among them, only SF had their third option cross 600 yards (Aiyuk -1342, Kittle - 1020, Samuel - 892).
(3) 600 yards over 17 games is 35-36 yards per game. I personally think that Odunze is going to top that number. Given that most teams struggle to feed three receiving threats, and that Odunze should challenge the receivers above him on the depth chart for opportunities, it stands to reason that either Allen or Moore (or both) will see a drop in production. Within the same context, Kmet should have the same expectation of topping 36 yards per game.
TL;DR: And so to the topic question - will either of Chicago's starting WR keep pace with last year's production?
(My Thoughts) I personally see Allen being a security blanket that lives between 8-10 yards downfield. He will have an impact as the receiver who just churns out first downs, but I expect that his overall share of the offense to go down. By the end of the year, I expect his opportunities to go down while Odunze's goes up. If I were trying to entice the most bets, I would probably set the over/under for Allen at 75 catches for 900 yards, with more than 50% of his production to come in the first half of the year. For comparison, I think that Moore is going to increase his volume and top 1500 yards.
