Willie on the block

[SilentLurker]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1192924513622728704

 

[CSF77]

Well it feels like the right time for this move. All I want to see in return is pitching and more pitching talent.

 

[zack54attack]

Grandal is intriguing as a FA..

 

[Castor76]

Well it feels like the right time for this move. All I want to see in return is pitching and more pitching talent.

Or maybe a 2B or CF who can bat leadoff.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Cervelli is a good, cheap vet backup option for Caratini, if that’s the route they are going

 

[fatbeard]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1192924813758803968

 

[CSF77]

Or maybe a 2B or CF who can bat leadoff.

wasted trade chip. Their biggest concern is rotation turn over and a bad market next year. Marquez looks like the only TOR potential in the system. Azolay is 50/50 high leverage or SP. It really depends if he can start getting deeper in his starts. Rest of the talent is borderline trash arms.

I would much rather have them pull a mulligan this year.

Trade Contreras for 2 pitching prospects.

Sign a high leverage late inning arm.

Start Chatwood to build his trade value with Q.

Keep Mills and Rae in the pen. Azolay in AAA building up pitch counts.

When (if) they trade in season back fill with the 3 above listed as filler options. If not then let them drop off to F/A's and use that opened up resource to go after Betts.

As far as a lead off is concerned they should focus on Nico and if he fails go back to Rizzo and drop Nico down to #8 for clean up RBI's.

At the end of they year it was working with out a healthy Javy and Rizzo. Schwarber and Happ were picking up their game and the potential is there to score runs.

 

[TL1961]

wasted trade chip. Their biggest concern is rotation turn over and a bad market next year. Marquez looks like the only TOR potential in the system. Azolay is 50/50 high leverage or SP. It really depends if he can start getting deeper in his starts. Rest of the talent is borderline trash arms.

I would much rather have them pull a mulligan this year.

Trade Contreras for 2 pitching prospects.

Sign a high leverage late inning arm.

Start Chatwood to build his trade value with Q.

Keep Mills and Rae in the pen. Azolay in AAA building up pitch counts.

When (if) they trade in season back fill with the 3 above listed as filler options. If not then let them drop off to F/A's and use that opened up resource to go after Betts.

As far as a lead off is concerned they should focus on Nico and if he fails go back to Rizzo and drop Nico down to #8 for clean up RBI's.

At the end of they year it was working with out a healthy Javy and Rizzo. Schwarber and Happ were picking up their game and the potential is there to score runs.

You repeatedly say to start Q to build his trade value.

If he is starting because they have nobody better, how do you trade him? Or who do start after you do?

You aren’t trading a pitcher for a better pitcher

P.S. Alzolay.

 

[anotheridiot]

Grandal is intriguing as a FA..

you see, that is where everyone immediatley goes. Caratini, Peralta, Amaya, Schwarber (yeah, **** all of you, but would let Nick fit in left field)

But the original story that has been retweeted by everyone having to make it look like they came up with this was that some GM's believe Contrares is available. Theo said he was listening to all offers for everybody, no untouchables. Why is this a new story?

 

[beckdawg]

I wouldn't trade Contreras. League average for C last year was a 85 wRC+. Among C with 350+ PAs only one catcher had a better wRC+ than Contreras' 127. I understand the thinking. People see Caratini who hit decent at 108 and think you can move Contreras for a slight downgrade and still be good plus you get whatever Contreras fetches. But to put some specifics here, that's a 19% difference in offense performance. That's like going from Rizzo at 1B to Ji-Man Choi.

I also get the logic that Contreras in the past hasn't been a great framer. I have 2 points on that. #1, even as bad as he was at framing he was still mostly neutral defensively because he was so athletic else where and had that cannon of an arm. So, while ideally you want a good framer, it's not like he was killing you defensive. As for point 2...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1180193403058847744

Theo said in his end of season presser that Contreras found a process for framing that worked better for him in the second half of last year. So, there's strong data suggesting he'll be better next year in that regard. And on top of that, you guys know contreras is the type of competitor you want.

One argument I can see being made is do you really want to pin a lot of resources up in a C? They get hurt a lot and don't play everyday. While I see the validity of that argument, I think the cubs are in a really unique position. Their 2 C last year both used to play 3B. And they also have a former C playing LF. Were the cubs so inclined they could seriously consider playing Contreras in the OF some. The reason that doesn't happen more often is clubs are worried about an injury to a C leaving you with only 1 guy but Schwarber gives them an "oh shit" valve. The cubs are in a unique position where they have 3 C they can use in the field to limit some of the wear and tear.

 

[CSF77]

You repeatedly say to start Q to build his trade value.

If he is starting because they have nobody better, how do you trade him? Or who do start after you do?

You aren’t trading a pitcher for a better pitcher

P.S. Alzolay.

No but you can package players for controlled starters.

Q is going to give about 3.5 ERA and he will push strike outs and push 200 innings every year. A team will see value in that as a #4 starter.

Idealy you go after LAA and take advantage of Joe knowing his players value and making deals that work for both teams.

Regardless rumor has both Q and Contreras on the market ATM. Should be a interesting off season

 

[CSF77]

I wouldn't trade Contreras. League average for C last year was a 85 wRC+. Among C with 350+ PAs only one catcher had a better wRC+ than Contreras' 127. I understand the thinking. People see Caratini who hit decent at 108 and think you can move Contreras for a slight downgrade and still be good plus you get whatever Contreras fetches. But to put some specifics here, that's a 19% difference in offense performance. That's like going from Rizzo at 1B to Ji-Man Choi.

I also get the logic that Contreras in the past hasn't been a great framer. I have 2 points on that. #1, even as bad as he was at framing he was still mostly neutral defensively because he was so athletic else where and had that cannon of an arm. So, while ideally you want a good framer, it's not like he was killing you defensive. As for point 2...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1180193403058847744

Theo said in his end of season presser that Contreras found a process for framing that worked better for him in the second half of last year. So, there's strong data suggesting he'll be better next year in that regard. And on top of that, you guys know contreras is the type of competitor you want.

One argument I can see being made is do you really want to pin a lot of resources up in a C? They get hurt a lot and don't play everyday. While I see the validity of that argument, I think the cubs are in a really unique position. Their 2 C last year both used to play 3B. And they also have a former C playing LF. Were the cubs so inclined they could seriously consider playing Contreras in the OF some. The reason that doesn't happen more often is clubs are worried about an injury to a C leaving you with only 1 guy but Schwarber gives them an "oh shit" valve. The cubs are in a unique position where they have 3 C they can use in the field to limit some of the wear and tear.

This is a arguement for trading him. 3 years of control plus bat and signs of improvement.

He could pull back a top 100 SP with that happening.

 

[CSF77]

And to be clear. I would rather have them do a mini reset this year and bulster the pitching our of it. Then make a push for Mookie Betts this off-season after payroll is in order and they extend or trade off short term guys.

No one here is saying Vic is a better talent. But catcher is a strength and you have the #1 D catcher in the minors that you can groom as a back up with a top 100 prospect pending.

Time is right and 3 years of control of a all star talent in a vital position requires a large return.

 

[Castor76]

I'm right with you. Contreras is an All-Star catcher. If he just gets his D to zero level then his bat makes him very valuable. Bryant is literally an MVP with two years of control left. What the Cubs need is for a team or two to lose out trying to get Rendon or Donaldson and then be like "We got a 3B you can have. Let me see what you got. Maybe we can make a deal." Between Baez, Rizzo, and Schwarber, the Cubs have 3 guys who could hit 100 HR together and have 100 RBI each. Happ has power and could be fine at Third. I wouldn't be objectionable to seeing if the Cubs could land Howie Kendrick on maybe a 2 year, 12 M deal with maybe an option for a 3rd year or more.

What they have to decide is, do they think they can build a team that could compete for the Series this season. Chances are, unless they get lucky/go big in a trade, they won't have the pitching to make them seem like contenders. But I can still hold out hope that Boston gets desperate and takes Quintana for Sale.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I'm right with you. Contreras is an All-Star catcher. If he just gets his D to zero level then his bat makes him very valuable. Bryant is literally an MVP with two years of control left. What the Cubs need is for a team or two to lose out trying to get Rendon or Donaldson and then be like "We got a 3B you can have. Let me see what you got. Maybe we can make a deal." Between Baez, Rizzo, and Schwarber, the Cubs have 3 guys who could hit 100 HR together and have 100 RBI each. Happ has power and could be fine at Third. I wouldn't be objectionable to seeing if the Cubs could land Howie Kendrick on maybe a 2 year, 12 M deal with maybe an option for a 3rd year or more.

What they have to decide is, do they think they can build a team that could compete for the Series this season. Chances are, unless they get lucky/go big in a trade, they won't have the pitching to make them seem like contenders. But I can still hold out hope that Boston gets desperate and takes Quintana for Sale.

Happ at third in a retooling year is fine I guess. Happ starting at any position for a team planning on winning is a mistake.

 

[Steve_A]

No but you can package players for controlled starters.

Q is going to give about 3.5 ERA and he will push strike outs and push 200 innings every year. A team will see value in that as a #4 starter.

Idealy you go after LAA and take advantage of Joe knowing his players value and making deals that work for both teams.

Regardless rumor has both Q and Contreras on the market ATM. Should be a interesting off season

LAA has nothing of much value to this team right now.

 

[anotheridiot]

I wouldn't trade Contreras. League average for C last year was a 85 wRC+. Among C with 350+ PAs only one catcher had a better wRC+ than Contreras' 127. I understand the thinking. People see Caratini who hit decent at 108 and think you can move Contreras for a slight downgrade and still be good plus you get whatever Contreras fetches. But to put some specifics here, that's a 19% difference in offense performance. That's like going from Rizzo at 1B to Ji-Man Choi.

I also get the logic that Contreras in the past hasn't been a great framer. I have 2 points on that. #1, even as bad as he was at framing he was still mostly neutral defensively because he was so athletic else where and had that cannon of an arm. So, while ideally you want a good framer, it's not like he was killing you defensive. As for point 2...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1180193403058847744

Theo said in his end of season presser that Contreras found a process for framing that worked better for him in the second half of last year. So, there's strong data suggesting he'll be better next year in that regard. And on top of that, you guys know contreras is the type of competitor you want.

One argument I can see being made is do you really want to pin a lot of resources up in a C? They get hurt a lot and don't play everyday. While I see the validity of that argument, I think the cubs are in a really unique position. Their 2 C last year both used to play 3B. And they also have a former C playing LF. Were the cubs so inclined they could seriously consider playing Contreras in the OF some. The reason that doesn't happen more often is clubs are worried about an injury to a C leaving you with only 1 guy but Schwarber gives them an "oh shit" valve. The cubs are in a unique position where they have 3 C they can use in the field to limit some of the wear and tear.

The question always go to value.

Who is more valuable, an all star catcher with major league flaws, the best catcher in the minors, or a top catching prospect.

I always go back to the eye test, why did Contrares get so much time off the end of last year. I just cant get past there are some pitchers that just can work with him here,

 

[beckdawg]

This is a arguement for trading him. 3 years of control plus bat and signs of improvement.

He could pull back a top 100 SP with that happening.

My point is he's more valuable than just a top 100 pitcher. If you were to argue you could get a top 10 pitching prospect for him maybe I'd consider it. But I wouldn't trade Contreras for the package Miami got for Realmuto. And here's the other thing... Contreras wasn't a big IFA signing so chances are the cubs can lock him up long term a lot easier than say Bryant. To me he's a piece you build around.

 

[CSF77]

My point is he's more valuable than just a top 100 pitcher. If you were to argue you could get a top 10 pitching prospect for him maybe I'd consider it. But I wouldn't trade Contreras for the package Miami got for Realmuto. And here's the other thing... Contreras wasn't a big IFA signing so chances are the cubs can lock him up long term a lot easier than say Bryant. To me he's a piece you build around.

Irrelevant to 2 ASG starts. He will command Yadi type cash in his prime.

 

[CSF77]

Houston would be a strong trade partner. Wilson would be a upgrade and they have Forrest Whitley