Would you really be that surprised if we made the playoffs this year?

[hyatt151]

I can give several examples of good coaches that came into shit storms and the team either made the playoffs or had a winning record in year one. Caldwell, Arians, Pagano are all recent examples. So why not us? We have a well respected head coach and arguably the best defensive coordinator. Normally, teams surprise. They go from bad one year to good the next.

If you doubt what I am saying, think back. Look for examples of teams that methodically improved slightly each year. You will not find many examples. The league is not linear like that. NFL teams are not an Algebra equation.

If we went 5-11 or 6-10 next year but "improved" and "were in every game", I guarantee you wouldn't feel some sense of accomplishment or have a good feeling going into 2016. You would gloom on the negatives and what caused us to lose the close games.

I think a lot of people here secretly have the expectations and hope that we will compete but they don't to put their foot in their mouth or get their hopes up. That's fine I guess.

I am predicting 9-7. With our coaching changes we will be better. We have proven players that are winners in their prime at key positions. We have a decent QB (not great) that has been competitive in the past. Unless we have some bad luck with injuries, I think we will have a competitive record. The NFC could be tough again like last year and if it is, it could be tough to get in at 9-7. We will see.

Troll away if you like, but this is my opinion.

Actually, that's what I'm realistically hoping for.

 

[hyatt151]

I can give several examples of good coaches that came into shit storms and the team either made the playoffs or had a winning record in year one. Caldwell, Arians, Pagano are all recent examples. So why not us? We have a well respected head coach and arguably the best defensive coordinator. Normally, teams surprise. They go from bad one year to good the next.

If you doubt what I am saying, think back. Look for examples of teams that methodically improved slightly each year. You will not find many examples. The league is not linear like that. NFL teams are not an Algebra equation.

If we went 5-11 or 6-10 next year but "improved" and "were in every game", I guarantee you wouldn't feel some sense of accomplishment or have a good feeling going into 2016. You would gloom on the negatives and what caused us to lose the close games.

I think a lot of people here secretly have the expectations and hope that we will compete but they don't to put their foot in their mouth or get their hopes up. That's fine I guess.

I am predicting 9-7. With our coaching changes we will be better. We have proven players that are winners in their prime at key positions. We have a decent QB (not great) that has been competitive in the past. Unless we have some bad luck with injuries, I think we will have a competitive record. The NFC could be tough again like last year and if it is, it could be tough to get in at 9-7. We will see.

Troll away if you like, but this is my opinion.

After publicly trying to ship him off to another team, our QB will be nothing short of oatmeal in 2015.

 

[BearFanJohn]

I would be surprised. I think the coaching, like most here, is much better. The defense will improve. Cutler is playing for a job somewhere else. If he gives a shit at all about football and his career he won't phone it in. Weirder things have happened in the NFL but for the Bears to make the playoffs a bunch of stuff has to happen to other teams; most of it injuries.

 

[theOHIOSTATE!]

Do you know the probability of the worst team in the NFL winning the superbowl? It is normally 1,000 to 1. Sometimes 5,000 to 1.

The odds of becoming a billionaire are 1 in 785,166.

http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1110/getting-rich-what-are-your-odds.aspx

The odds of the Bears THIS YEAR to win the NFC North are 7-2 according to sportsbetting.com I am not even talking about winning the division. I am talking about making the playoffs.

You are comparing something that is so astronomically low (especially the way Bill Gates did it) to something that literally a team or two will do every fucking year which is surprise and make the playoffs after a bad year.

I am confused as to where you think I was literally comparing odds of the Bears winning the division to odds of a random person becoming a billionaire.

You need to read a bit closer chap.

I was talking about people confusing what is POSSIBLE and what is PROBABLE.

It is possible that the Bears make the playoffs, however it isn't probable they make them.

I cannot make this any easier.

 

[theOHIOSTATE!]

To the poster named OHIOSTATE (I will never put the "the" in there because A) no one fucking cares and B) its the stupidest thing in the world)...

Your logic is like saying, it's so hard to win the lottery that you should never fill out an office bracket! To hard to win because no one wins the lottery!

You shouldn't play the lottery bc it's a horrible gambling proposition from a Expected Value POV, especially because the advertised payouts cannot be taken as an immediate lump sum, and because of tax implications. You still have to pay for a ticket in an office pool last I checked, lol.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

I am confused as to where you think I was literally comparing odds of the Bears winning the division to odds of a random person becoming a billionaire.

You need to read a bit closer chap.

I was talking about people confusing what is POSSIBLE and what is PROBABLE.

It is possible that the Bears make the playoffs, however it isn't probable they make them.

I cannot make this any easier.

You compared the 2 to try and make the point that it was such an improbability for the Bears to make the playoffs that one person must be stupid to make a claim.

 

[theOHIOSTATE!]

You compared the 2 to try and make the point that it was such an improbability for the Bears to make the playoffs that one person must be stupid to make a claim.

Wow, ok, like I said...can't make it any simpler. One would have to football stupid to think it LIKELY the Bears make the playoffs this coming yr. That isn't tantamount to saying it would be exactly as unlikely as a person expecting to become a billionaire....

You know what, nevermind.

 

[The Half Moon Bay]

Honestly, I've thought about whether the Bears can be a playoff team, and I am starting to think they might.

If you think about what the Bears did in the draft, they really took care of the offense. Other than RT (and arguably QB, depending on your opinion of Cutler), is there a weakness on the offensive side of the ball?

LT - Bushrod
LG - Slauson
C - Grasu
RG - Long
RT - Mils/Fabuluje/Leno/training camp cut???
WRs - White, Jeffrey, Royal, Wilson
RBs - Forte, Langford, Rodgers, Carey
TEs - Bennett, Pascoe, Zach Miller
QB - Cutler

Think about all the talent - White/Jeffrey are both Pro Bowlers or potential Pro Bowlers and Royal is a very good #3 WR. If Wilson can get back on track to where he was projected before the collarbone injury, maybe he becomes a very good #3/4 WR. Forte probably still has one more elite year left, particularly considering he won't be used as heavily as he has been in years' past. And even with the slightest of slippage, the Jacquizz Rodgers/Jeremy Langford duo should be more than enough to pick up some of the slack. I have to assume Martellus is going to be on the team and we've seen how good he is. The OL is a little bit of a question mark, as mentioned above, but I like what the Bears have in 4 of those 5 slots. Regarding the RT position, I think Pace will bring in some vet competition once training camp cuts start happening. Obviously the wildcard is Cutler. He doesn't need to improve by leaps and bounds, nor does he need to become Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Peyton Manning. All he has to do is be more careful with the football. Question is - can he?

On the defensive side, the Bears won't be great, but why can't they be pretty good (say, top 10-15?). Let's be real, the Bears draft strategy is a clear indication that Pace thinks the defense is going to improve markedly simply by having real coaches. I am not saying everyone will get better with Fangio/Fox, but isn't it fair to assume that going from Trestman/Tucker to Fox/Fangio will elevate at least some of the following players' games: Bostic, Christian Jones, McClellin (he's probably a lost cause), Fuller, Tim Jennings, Mundy (surprisingly decent last year), Jared Allen (fewer snaps will help), David Bass, Ego. If the new coaches can simply elevate 2-3 of those players' games, the Bears will be a much better defense. On top of that, they've added some real talent in McPhee, McDonald, Rolle, Ball, Acho, Foster, Eddie Goldman, and Adrian Amos. Is this really a bad defense with the new coaching staff?

NT - Goldman
DE - Ratliff, McDonald
OLB - McPhee, Houston
ILB - Foster, Jones
CB - Fuller, Jennings
S - Mundy, Rolle (could see Amos earning this spot)
Nickel - Ball

Let's not underrate how much talent was infused with Goldman, McDonald, Foster, McPhee, and Ball. Each of those guys is a legitimate starter (if not more). And I don't think Jenkins, Acho, and Amos are bums either. There is some decent depth, which will also be a direct benefit to the special teams units.

All in all, I am not PREDICTING a playoff appearance. The schedule is tough and with a gun to my head, I'd probably predict something like 7-9 or 8-8. Fact is, the QB is still the most important player on the team and I don't trust Cutler to cut down on his turnovers.

That said, there is certainly a path to 10-6 and a playoff appearance. Games are won and lost on funny bounces, bad calls, and freak injuries every year. At least one "8-8" team always goes 10-6 and makes the playoffs and at least one "11-5" team always goes 8-8 and misses the playoffs. It could happen.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Wow, ok, like I said...can't make it any simpler. One would have to football stupid to think it LIKELY the Bears make the playoffs this coming yr. That isn't tantamount to saying it would be exactly as unlikely as a person expecting to become a billionaire....

You know what, nevermind.

God bless the special ed teachers in this world.

What is the title of my thread?

Did I say "likely". I said "I wouldn't be surprised". And quite frankly, 7-2 odds to win the division is not surprise worthy either.

 

[gpphat]

Would I be surprised? Yes...this team had a lot of question marks on defense last year, throw in the fact that there is a new coaching staff in place along with a new defensive system. Those question marks weren't really alleviated. Yes they were addressed, but until the pads are on and meaningful games are being played....we won't know if this team will have a good enough defense to push them to the playoffs this year or in the following years. They made some moves I liked but the fact of the matter is there are still too many unknowns at this time...especially on the defensive side of the ball.

Offensively they are just as much of an enigma as they are defensively. The biggest difference is we know there is going to be some pretty good talent on that side of the ball. I won't be as surprised to see the offense click faster than the defense, but I still won't hold my breath for that this year.

 

[sevvy]

Our schedule and our division are going to be too much for this team imo. Unless Pace/Fox/Fangio/Gase work some serious magic, we're not going anywhere this year.

And that's probably good. We need a top 10 pick next year imo.

 

[Bort]

If the Bears make the playoffs I will be buying canned goods and ammunition.

Because the apocalypse is coming closely behind it.

The Bears will make the playoffs when Aaron Rodgers retires or is injured for more than 50% of the season.

Doesn't mean they won't be improved.

Therein lies the rub. The NFL is the most unpredictable major professional sports league. Nothing should be that surprising. Star players get injured every season. Every season, there are multiple games where a couple lucky deflections cause the inferior team to prevail in a game they had no business winning.

Statistically, the better team only wins about 67% of the time. And it's only a 16-game season. Sheer random luck can be the difference between 6-10 and 10-6. Bears fans should be acutely aware of this fact after that fluky 13-3 season we had in 2001.

 

[theOHIOSTATE!]

What is the title of my thread?

Did I say "likely". I said "I wouldn't be surprised". And quite frankly, 7-2 odds to win the division is not surprise worthy either.

I cannot quantify what qualifies as a surprise for you, and I would never claim to.

I would be surprised as would many posters here by the looks of it.

I am done with this idiocy now.


BROC, I agree there is a bigger SD to wins/losses than many would think, but if you also look at last yr's point differential- which so many on here like to ignore- you'll see that last yr's team was likely a very very poor team meaning it's record was fairly indicative of the team strength. That takes out some of the natural variance you might see yr to yr where one yr a team may have under-performed it''s true strength in terms of W's and L's and the next yr it may over-perform it's true strength in terms of W's and L's. We didn't under-perform last yr....at least it doesn't seem likely we did.

 

[nc0gnet0]

I would be surprised. I think the coaching, like most here, is much better. The defense will improve. Cutler is playing for a job somewhere else. If he gives a shit at all about football and his career he won't phone it in. Weirder things have happened in the NFL but for the Bears to make the playoffs a bunch of stuff has to happen to other teams; most of it injuries.

Cutler still has a contract guaranteed for 2016 in the neighborhood of 14-16 mil. Chances are he will still be a Bear.

 

[Bearly]

I'd be surprised but don't put it out of the realm of possibility.

 

[RisWell]

We have enough talent to make playoffs. It really comes down to QB play and defense.

 

[Schmidtaki]

How about the Bears.

1999 went 7-9. Then regressed to 5-11. Then went 13-3.
2003 went 7-9. Then regressed to 5-11. Then went 11-5 and 13-3.

Seahawks went 4-12, 5-11, 7-9 (twice), 11-5, and 13-3........

You asked for examples, you got some.......long story short, you were wrong.

But he provided examples that proved his theory correct...

You do know how to read right?

 

[nc0gnet0]

But he provided examples that proved his theory correct...

You do know how to read right?

Actually I think it is you that needs to brush up on his reading comprehension skills. He asked for examples right here

find me examples of teams that methodically improved over the course of 3-5 years in a linear fashion into a contender.

I gave them to him itso facto...game over

As for his theory, I have said from the onset that W-L record is nowhere near the complete story of the quality of the team.

 

[hyatt151]

Honestly, I've thought about whether the Bears can be a playoff team, and I am starting to think they might.

If you think about what the Bears did in the draft, they really took care of the offense. Other than RT (and arguably QB, depending on your opinion of Cutler), is there a weakness on the offensive side of the ball?

LT - Bushrod
LG - Slauson
C - Grasu
RG - Long
RT - Mils/Fabuluje/Leno/training camp cut???
WRs - White, Jeffrey, Royal, Wilson
RBs - Forte, Langford, Rodgers, Carey
TEs - Bennett, Pascoe, Zach Miller
QB - Cutler

Think about all the talent - White/Jeffrey are both Pro Bowlers or potential Pro Bowlers and Royal is a very good #3 WR. If Wilson can get back on track to where he was projected before the collarbone injury, maybe he becomes a very good #3/4 WR. Forte probably still has one more elite year left, particularly considering he won't be used as heavily as he has been in years' past. And even with the slightest of slippage, the Jacquizz Rodgers/Jeremy Langford duo should be more than enough to pick up some of the slack. I have to assume Martellus is going to be on the team and we've seen how good he is. The OL is a little bit of a question mark, as mentioned above, but I like what the Bears have in 4 of those 5 slots. Regarding the RT position, I think Pace will bring in some vet competition once training camp cuts start happening. Obviously the wildcard is Cutler. He doesn't need to improve by leaps and bounds, nor does he need to become Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Peyton Manning. All he has to do is be more careful with the football. Question is - can he?

On the defensive side, the Bears won't be great, but why can't they be pretty good (say, top 10-15?). Let's be real, the Bears draft strategy is a clear indication that Pace thinks the defense is going to improve markedly simply by having real coaches. I am not saying everyone will get better with Fangio/Fox, but isn't it fair to assume that going from Trestman/Tucker to Fox/Fangio will elevate at least some of the following players' games: Bostic, Christian Jones, McClellin (he's probably a lost cause), Fuller, Tim Jennings, Mundy (surprisingly decent last year), Jared Allen (fewer snaps will help), David Bass, Ego. If the new coaches can simply elevate 2-3 of those players' games, the Bears will be a much better defense. On top of that, they've added some real talent in McPhee, McDonald, Rolle, Ball, Acho, Foster, Eddie Goldman, and Adrian Amos. Is this really a bad defense with the new coaching staff?

NT - Goldman
DE - Ratliff, McDonald
OLB - McPhee, Houston
ILB - Foster, Jones
CB - Fuller, Jennings
S - Mundy, Rolle (could see Amos earning this spot)
Nickel - Ball

Let's not underrate how much talent was infused with Goldman, McDonald, Foster, McPhee, and Ball. Each of those guys is a legitimate starter (if not more). And I don't think Jenkins, Acho, and Amos are bums either. There is some decent depth, which will also be a direct benefit to the special teams units.

All in all, I am not PREDICTING a playoff appearance. The schedule is tough and with a gun to my head, I'd probably predict something like 7-9 or 8-8. Fact is, the QB is still the most important player on the team and I don't trust Cutler to cut down on his turnovers.

That said, there is certainly a path to 10-6 and a playoff appearance. Games are won and lost on funny bounces, bad calls, and freak injuries every year. At least one "8-8" team always goes 10-6 and makes the playoffs and at least one "11-5" team always goes 8-8 and misses the playoffs. It could happen.

365 days ago, some posters were :fap: that we addressed and fixed the defense. How did that work out? Talking yourself in to delusions on rookies and unproven veterans taking us to the playoffs is a bit out there. And can we let White play a down before we make him a pro-bowler.

 

[The Half Moon Bay]

If you read the post, I said that White is a potential Pro Bowler. All draft analysts and scouts seem to agree. There are two big differences between how the Bears "fixed" the defense last year and what they have done with the offense this year. First, last year the Bears brought in a bunch of guys from bad teams (LaMarr Houston) or who were on the down swing of their careers (Jared Allen). The Bears were also counting on old guys like Peanut, Briggs, and DJ Williams to be good. This year, the holes on offense were patched with rookies or guys still in their primes. Nobody on the offense is in the twilight of their career except maybe Forte.

Second, last year wasn't going to work no matter who was on the field because the defensive coaching was a joke. While I don't think Adam Gase and the offensive staff is as accomplished as Fangio/Fox and the defensive staff, he is at least competent and potentially even good or very good.