Yelich to the Brewers

[beckdawg]

I look at the trade like this. MIL was always going to do something with the prospects in this deal. IMO, Brinson alone could very well be a 3-4 win player and he's literally ready now. So, I sort of feel like while not a total wash, the difference between him and Yelich isn't worth the other 3 players in the deal albeit you know what Yelich is and Brinson is a hope that he's good.

But aside from that I question how much better the Brewers are. Their best hitter last year was Travis Shaw. He was worth 3.4 fWAR. That said, he only was a 119 wRC+. I would exactly call him a player you build your franchise around though he's a good supporting cast type. Santana was their #2 hitter at 3.3 fWAR but presumably is getting traded now. Thames was #3 and is 31 and was only a league average 2.1 starter type. Manny Pina is a pretty good young catcher but he is more defense with a lack of bat at 94 wRC+. Ryan Braun is 34 and only was worth 1.5 wins last year. Orlando Arcia is probably who you'd argue is their "franchise" guy but even in the minors he's never really been a monster hitter. His best wRC+ above rookie ball was 126 in 2015 at AA. Decent for a SS but it's not like he's Correra out there.

Overall though from the batting perspective they don't have anyone who jumps out really. And in terms of prospects, Corey Ray(A+ CF) and Keston Hiura(A 2B) are ok but not game changers. They have a lot of interesting young pitching albeit the upside of a top end guy is missing.

To get to the point, I feel like they are a team that is probably an 80-85 win type and lack the player to get over the hump and go into the real contender types. So, unless yelich takes another step forward and becomes that guy I'm not sure this move really moves the needle for me. They were always going to be strong in the OF with the prospects they had. They just traded future for now. So, they probably got better but I'm not sure they did enough to get past the cubs for the foreseeable future. I mean the cubs beat them last year playing like shit for half a season. Not sure the 2-3 extra wins Yelich may provide changes that.

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/956701814715494401


Hmmmmm.....

Wouldn't that be a kick in the cubs ass...
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[beckdawg]

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/956701814715494401


Hmmmmm.....

Wouldn't that be a kick in the cubs ass...
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Except the fact the Rays have already basically come out and said they aren't trading Archer this offseason. Plus, Santana wouldn't even move the needle on him. Like I'm not sure he's even better than Happ. He hit .278/.371/.505 last year and was worth 3.3 wins over 607 PAs. Happ hit .253/.328/.514 and was worth 1.8 wins over 413 PAs. So if you alter nothing but the number of PAs Happ had he would have been worth roughly 2.65 wins. Happ is 2 years younger. He hit 24 HRs to Santana's 30. He is probably a better defender in the OF and can play 2B.

I'm sure the brewers would love to build a package for Archer around Santana but I simply can't believe the Rays would even entertain the idea.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

Except the fact the Rays have already basically come out and said they aren't trading Archer this offseason. Plus, Santana wouldn't even move the needle on him. Like I'm not sure he's even better than Happ. He hit .278/.371/.505 last year and was worth 3.3 wins over 607 PAs. Happ hit .253/.328/.514 and was worth 1.8 wins over 413 PAs. So if you alter nothing but the number of PAs Happ had he would have been worth roughly 2.65 wins. Happ is 2 years younger. He hit 24 HRs to Santana's 30. He is probably a better defender in the OF and can play 2B.

I'm sure the brewers would love to build a package for Archer around Santana but I simply can't believe the Rays would even entertain the idea.

Agreed. But I bet the Brewers are wondering what Detroit wants for Fulmer...

 

[beckdawg]

Agreed. But I bet the Brewers are wondering what Detroit wants for Fulmer...

Don't think fulmer would be any cheaper.

 

[chibears55]

Except the fact the Rays have already basically come out and said they aren't trading Archer this offseason. Plus, Santana wouldn't even move the needle on him. Like I'm not sure he's even better than Happ. He hit .278/.371/.505 last year and was worth 3.3 wins over 607 PAs. Happ hit .253/.328/.514 and was worth 1.8 wins over 413 PAs. So if you alter nothing but the number of PAs Happ had he would have been worth roughly 2.65 wins. Happ is 2 years younger. He hit 24 HRs to Santana's 30. He is probably a better defender in the OF and can play 2B.

I'm sure the brewers would love to build a package for Archer around Santana but I simply can't believe the Rays would even entertain the idea.

Not sure what brewers have left in their system but im sure as that post is, they might take a swing and see if and what Rays could be interested in with the extra OFers...
Im sure top pitching prospects would be involved if they have those

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[CSF77]

Except the fact the Rays have already basically come out and said they aren't trading Archer this offseason. Plus, Santana wouldn't even move the needle on him. Like I'm not sure he's even better than Happ. He hit .278/.371/.505 last year and was worth 3.3 wins over 607 PAs. Happ hit .253/.328/.514 and was worth 1.8 wins over 413 PAs. So if you alter nothing but the number of PAs Happ had he would have been worth roughly 2.65 wins. Happ is 2 years younger. He hit 24 HRs to Santana's 30. He is probably a better defender in the OF and can play 2B.

I'm sure the brewers would love to build a package for Archer around Santana but I simply can't believe the Rays would even entertain the idea.

I would target Duffy or Manea myself. See which team matches up better in a deal. Crew lacks a lefty and makes more sense to balance the rotation after Nelson returns.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Except the fact the Rays have already basically come out and said they aren't trading Archer this offseason. Plus, Santana wouldn't even move the needle on him. Like I'm not sure he's even better than Happ. He hit .278/.371/.505 last year and was worth 3.3 wins over 607 PAs. Happ hit .253/.328/.514 and was worth 1.8 wins over 413 PAs. So if you alter nothing but the number of PAs Happ had he would have been worth roughly 2.65 wins. Happ is 2 years younger. He hit 24 HRs to Santana's 30. He is probably a better defender in the OF and can play 2B.

I'm sure the brewers would love to build a package for Archer around Santana but I simply can't believe the Rays would even entertain the idea.

The Rays have said that but when you look at them it would make sense for them to trade him now if the monster offer comes. They are loaded with young pitching, loaded and yet they don't have any position player prospects to go with that pitching so they could find themselves in the same boat when they're ready to compete agin 2-3 years from now with a solid staff and no bats. Archer gets you bats but so far no one has wowed them so they say he's not being moved. I get it and he may not be, but don't just take their word because it makes no sense for them to watch his diminishing value for the next several years, because they ain't competing anytime soon.

 

[anotheridiot]

Well, not much to think other than there were posters here that were interested in adding Yelich and some interested in adding Cain, so it must be a decent set of moves.

Does this mean the brewers are more retooling than rebuilding? I mean with no movement with the cubs and starters, maybe they see the division is winnable

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Well, not much to think other than there were posters here that were interested in adding Yelich and some interested in adding Cain, so it must be a decent set of moves.

Does this mean the brewers are more retooling than rebuilding? I mean with no movement with the cubs and starters, maybe they see the division is winnable

It signals that the rebuild is over and they're ready to compete. They were reluctant to trade prospects at the deadline last year correctly surmising that the Division really wasn't up for grabs but now, with a full season looming they're making their moves. Right now their the clear second best team in the division. If they were to get DArvish and our guys got Cobb it'll be a dogfight. Theo needs to sign Darvish.

 

[beckdawg]

Not sure what brewers have left in their system but im sure as that post is, they might take a swing and see if and what Rays could be interested in with the extra OFers...
Im sure top pitching prospects would be involved if they have those

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They don't *really* have much left. Keston Hiura is good but not elite. Think you could argue he's a shade worse than Happ as a prospect. Bat is comparable though Hiura has a better hit tool and Happ has a better power tool in my eyes anyways. Happ's also better defensively and also more flexible. Hiura is 2B only. Luis Ortiz and Corbin Burnes probably back half of the top 100 types but neither has overwhelming stuff. Ortiz has been a 7-8 k/9 guy with a good walk rate. Burnes has better K potential at 8-9 per 9 but a worse walk rate. Think you could make the case both are on a similar tier to Alzolay.

Given that, I'm not sure a package of something like Happ and Alzolay would get the job done. Even if they included a higher upside guy like Corey Ray i'd be surprised to see the Rays move archer.

 

[beckdawg]

The Rays have said that but when you look at them it would make sense for them to trade him now if the monster offer comes. They are loaded with young pitching, loaded and yet they don't have any position player prospects to go with that pitching so they could find themselves in the same boat when they're ready to compete agin 2-3 years from now with a solid staff and no bats. Archer gets you bats but so far no one has wowed them so they say he's not being moved. I get it and he may not be, but don't just take their word because it makes no sense for them to watch his diminishing value for the next several years, because they ain't competing anytime soon.

I should probably clarify. It wouldn't shock me to see the Rays move Archer. It would shock me to see them move him for what the brewers have to offer. The only way I see tampa moving archer is if they get a franchise corner stone or if they get essentially half a starting roster for him. The cornerstone route seems unlikely because with Adames, Arroyo and Duffy they are pretty set in the infield and there's not a lot of big corner OF bats these days.

In terms of going the bunch of good players route... maybe that's plausible but they sort of already have that. As mentioned, Duffy, Arroyo and Adames figure to be above average. KK is around another 6 years in CF. They could use a catcher but so could about 20 other teams. Steven Souza is around til 2021. So realistically all there really looking for is LF, 1B and DH. If we're talking the Brewers specifically I suppose you could argue Domingo Santana sorta fills the role of that power hitting LF/DH type. But it's not like those guys are particularly difficult to find. That's obviously the reason everyone and their mother wants to sell Schwarber for 10 cents on the dollar. Well not everyone but seems like it.

Honestly, I think the Rays will just run with Archer for the next couple of years and see what the make of things. It's a lot easier for them to keep him and deal other pitching to free spots for younger guys than it is for them to replace him. And if all they really are after is 1B/LF/DH types that shouldn't be that difficult to find.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

They don't *really* have much left. Keston Hiura is good but not elite. Think you could argue he's a shade worse than Happ as a prospect. Bat is comparable though Hiura has a better hit tool and Happ has a better power tool in my eyes anyways. Happ's also better defensively and also more flexible. Hiura is 2B only. Luis Ortiz and Corbin Burnes probably back half of the top 100 types but neither has overwhelming stuff. Ortiz has been a 7-8 k/9 guy with a good walk rate. Burnes has better K potential at 8-9 per 9 but a worse walk rate. Think you could make the case both are on a similar tier to Alzolay.

Given that, I'm not sure a package of something like Happ and Alzolay would get the job done. Even if they included a higher upside guy like Corey Ray i'd be surprised to see the Rays move archer.

Santana and Philips are likely going in trade. That might get them a guy like Danny Duffy. Wouldn't shock me to see Boston give up up on the Martinez pursuit and doing something like sign Cobb and trade Pomeranz for Santana. What Milwaukee has done is open up flexibility. Archer and Fulmer are probably out for them but there are always three team deals to consider.

 

[chibears55]

They don't *really* have much left. Keston Hiura is good but not elite. Think you could argue he's a shade worse than Happ as a prospect. Bat is comparable though Hiura has a better hit tool and Happ has a better power tool in my eyes anyways. Happ's also better defensively and also more flexible. Hiura is 2B only. Luis Ortiz and Corbin Burnes probably back half of the top 100 types but neither has overwhelming stuff. Ortiz has been a 7-8 k/9 guy with a good walk rate. Burnes has better K potential at 8-9 per 9 but a worse walk rate. Think you could make the case both are on a similar tier to Alzolay.

Given that, I'm not sure a package of something like Happ and Alzolay would get the job done. Even if they included a higher upside guy like Corey Ray i'd be surprised to see the Rays move archer.

Yea.. i could see them grabbing a lesser SP using an OFer to trade

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[CSF77]

Jed put out: We were expecting the Crew to make some moves. But that is not going to change our offseason.

Which means: Hey Yu's agent. No the offer didn't change. No we are not tacking on more ok.

Honestly this tactic might bite them in the ass. I would love to see their offer honestly. If it is at 4/100 It would be disappointing. They can afford to go 6 years with him.

 

[CSF77]

Jed put out: We were expecting the Crew to make some moves. But that is not going to change our offseason.

Which means: Hey Yu's agent. No the offer didn't change. No we are not tacking on more ok.

Honestly this tactic might bite them in the ass. I would love to see their offer honestly. If it is at 4/100 It would be disappointing. They can afford to go 6 years with him.

 

[chibears55]

Jed put out: We were expecting the Crew to make some moves. But that is not going to change our offseason.

Which means: Hey Yu's agent. No the offer didn't change. No we are not tacking on more ok.

Honestly this tactic might bite them in the ass. I would love to see their offer honestly. If it is at 4/100 It would be disappointing. They can afford to go 6 years with him.

That been my point all along...

I get their not gonna throw out their best offer and overpay right away..
But
Were a couple weeks away from ST now and there still no progress..

Eventually someone gonna say fuk it and offer what Yu looking for or close to it..
Then their probably looking at offering Arrieta 6 yrs to get him or settling on Cobb and over paying him.

So, the cubs are eventually gonna have to bend a bit more or yes risk losing out or overpaying on a guy they don't really want



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[beckdawg]

I had another thought about this move being pretty meh. If the idea is the Brewers got better it is sorta weird IMO. The reason why is the brewers won 86 games last year. And with them signing Cain and trading for Yelich, we have to assume Santana is gone. Thing is, he was worth 3.3 wins last year. Cain is a decently big upgrade over Broxton(0.7 wins) and Brett Phillips(1 win). In terms of what they are getting here though, Yelich was worth 4.5 wins which is basically what he's been at his best. So if in effect you're trading Santana for him you're only gaining ~1.2 wins. Cain is probably a 3 win upgrade though so that's a pretty nice get for them.

I suppose you could argue Santana then nets them something else but in essence if you're doing that you're essentially trading the prospects they did for Yelich to get whatever Santana nets plus 1.2 wins. Not entirely sure that's worth it.

 

[chibears55]

I had another thought about this move being pretty meh. If the idea is the Brewers got better it is sorta weird IMO. The reason why is the brewers won 86 games last year. And with them signing Cain and trading for Yelich, we have to assume Santana is gone. Thing is, he was worth 3.3 wins last year. Cain is a decently big upgrade over Broxton(0.7 wins) and Brett Phillips(1 win). In terms of what they are getting here though, Yelich was worth 4.5 wins which is basically what he's been at his best. So if in effect you're trading Santana for him you're only gaining ~1.2 wins. Cain is probably a 3 win upgrade though so that's a pretty nice get for them.

I suppose you could argue Santana then nets them something else but in essence if you're doing that you're essentially trading the prospects they did for Yelich to get whatever Santana nets plus 1.2 wins. Not entirely sure that's worth it.

I looked at it this way..
Yelich is an upgrade over Broxton in CF but Cain at 32 will become a decline over Santana 26 in RF, plus Braun production in LF will start to decline and he immovable with his contract..

So, i dont see their additions that great as far as people saying their ahead of or a threat to cubs now

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[beckdawg]

I looked at it this way..
Yelich is an upgrade over Broxton in CF but Cain at 32 will become a decline over Santana 26 in RF, plus Braun production in LF will start to decline and he immovable with his contract..

So, i dont see their additions that great as far as people saying their ahead of or a threat to cubs now

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I suppose that's a way to look at it but Yelich isn't playing CF for them. Cain is. Cain was +5 DRS last year. Yelich was -6. Cain was 2.4 UZR/150. Yelich was -0.7. I suppose you could argue Cain has the better arm for RF because Yelich's is particularly weak but still think Cain's their CF.

Actually... think Braun could end up in RF looking at the numbers. Of the 3 his uzr rating on his arm was the best at -0.3. Cain was -3.5. Yelich was -8.0.