2011 Draft

[Rice Cube]

I can't beleive someone actually is pointing out that its good to get on base. Speed can help you get on base. It also helps your defense. It doesnt just affect stolen bases.

Speed will definitely increase your infield-hits total.

 

[Lex L.]

Speed will definitely increase your infield-hits total.

It also increases the throwing errors by your opponents, especially if you can bunt.

 

[Rice Cube]

It also increases the throwing errors by your opponents, especially if you can bunt.

The problem is that with age, speed is the skill that is most likely to deteriorate, so they have to find other ways to get on base, which is why statsy folk like on-base percentage so much. If the defense knows you're going to bunt all the time, they'll play up. At that point, is your speedy guy going to be able to dink one over the third baseman's head? Just a thought.

Take Tony Campana for example. Warp speed, but serious issues getting on base so far at MLB level. It'll probably even out since he hasn't actually played all that much, but he can't even consistently Willie Mays Hayes it and hit it on the ground to get to first. Speed is pretty much useless if you can't get to first base, which was one of the previous points. But it is very nice to have if your player also has the other skillsets.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

"Willie Mays Hayes. I hit like Mays, and I run like Hayes." - Willie Mays Hayes
"You may run like Hayes. but you hit like shit." - Lou Brown

 

[poodski]

I can't beleive someone actually is pointing out that its good to get on base. Speed can help you get on base. It also helps your defense. It doesnt just affect stolen bases.

The ten quote un quote fastest guys in the majors this year are: Michael Bourn (.348) Coco Crisp (.293), Shane Victorino (.353), Jose Reyes (.386), Curtis Granderson (.351), Ian Desmond (.271), Brett Gardner (.351), Elvis Andrus (.318), Erick Aybar (.329), and Starlin Castro (.329) or an average OBP of 333.

The ten quote un quote slowest guys in the majors this year are: Justin Smoak (.347), Justin Morneau (.281), Hideki Matsui (.268), AJ Pierzynski (.320), Gaby Sanchez (.388), Adam Dunn (.322), Vladimir Guerrero (.309), Brad Hawpe (.307), and Todd Helton (.392) for an average of 327.

So the difference is .7% or one extra time on base per every 143 PA.

 

[Lex L.]

The ten quote un quote fastest guys in the majors this year are: Michael Bourn (.348) Coco Crisp (.293), Shane Victorino (.353), Jose Reyes (.386), Curtis Granderson (.351), Ian Desmond (.271), Brett Gardner (.351), Elvis Andrus (.318), Erick Aybar (.329), and Starlin Castro (.329) or an average OBP of 333.

The ten quote un quote slowest guys in the majors this year are: Justin Smoak (.347), Justin Morneau (.281), Hideki Matsui (.268), AJ Pierzynski (.320), Gaby Sanchez (.388), Adam Dunn (.322), Vladimir Guerrero (.309), Brad Hawpe (.307), and Todd Helton (.392) for an average of 327.

So the difference is .7% or one extra time on base per every 143 PA.

What about defense? What about the fact that faster guys are usually better at defense? What about once they're on base? Hitters usually see more fastballs when a fast guy is on base. What about the fact that guys whose game is speed can often bunt which is something that translates into more productive outs?

Sorry to point this out but the exercise you just went through is a little silly. Its extremely myopic...so much so that its virtually useless.

 

[Lex L.]

The problem is that with age, speed is the skill that is most likely to deteriorate, so they have to find other ways to get on base, which is why statsy folk like on-base percentage so much. If the defense knows you're going to bunt all the time, they'll play up. At that point, is your speedy guy going to be able to dink one over the third baseman's head? Just a thought.

Take Tony Campana for example. Warp speed, but serious issues getting on base so far at MLB level. It'll probably even out since he hasn't actually played all that much, but he can't even consistently Willie Mays Hayes it and hit it on the ground to get to first. Speed is pretty much useless if you can't get to first base, which was one of the previous points. But it is very nice to have if your player also has the other skillsets.

Actually, the bigger problem is that teams dont use speed well and theyre not committed to it. The other issue is that even fast guys are often bad bunters in today's MLB.

If the defense plays up all the time, the batter can take a shortened swing. If the batter knows what he's doing, he can make the read and take advantage of the defense cheating up. MLB just doesnt emphasize small ball though because this is one way that their still living in the steroid era.

The other issue is that you dont really see the same speed in MLB like you did before the steroid era. Two things happened: Steroids and Michael Jordan. At one point the demographic that produces the most fast runners started focusing on basketball. Around the same time, steroids were taking speed out of the game. You had 9 hole hitters who were threats to hit 20 HRs in the steroid era. MLB just hasnt seen the same speed that was there pre-steroids. When you say a guy is fast, its relative. He might be fast for today, but not compared to the era Im talking about.

 

[Rice Cube]

Yeah, I figure the run environment would change quite a bit. However, I don't mind having a few guys with gap-to-gap power so that the speedy guys can go 1st-to-3rd or 1st-to-home. I think that's a better use of speed than having the speedy guys (again, thinking about Tony Campana) try to bunt their way on or get infield hits. It also helps if the speedy guys are also fantastic at getting on base, then you can load the top of your lineup with the traditional speedsters because they're not making outs, and have the power guys drive them in while they run wild on the bases. But I think simply trying to amass speed is just that...simplistic. They have to have other skills too, and as said before, if they can't even get to first base, their speed is useless on that side of the ball. They can still run down fly balls and pop ups and sharp grounders, but if they can't get on base, they're just defensive replacements and pinch runners.

That's why I emphasize OBP over speed, anyway. I do like speed, and I agree with you, it has to be used right.