2011 PECOTA Team Projections

[Jntg4]

OK, it has us with the second best offense in the division by runs (behind Milwaukee by 6, STL with the highest team batting average, Milwaukee with the highest team On Base Percentage by .001 over us, and Milwaukee with the highest slugging percentage). It also says that we have the second worst pitching staff in the division. Anyone find that odd?

AL East:
Boston 93-69
New York 92-70
Tampa Bay 84-78
Baltimore 81-81
Toronto 76-86

AL Central:
Detroit 83-79
Minnesota 83-79
Chicago 82-80
Cleveland 74-88
Kansas City 69-93

AL West:
Texas 84-78
Oakland 83-79
Los Angeles 78-84
Seattle 70-92

NL East:
Philadelphia 91-71
Atlanta 87-75
Florida 84-78
New York 80-82
Washington 70-92

NL Central:
St. Louis 87-75
Milwaukee 85-77
Cincinnati 81-81
Chicago 80-82
Pittsburgh 71-91
Houston 68-94

NL West:
San Francisco 90-72
Los Angeles 87-75
Colorado 83-79
San Diego 80-82
Arizona 74-88

Baseball Prospectus | Depth Charts

This is just the first version, as they continue to update throughout spring training every so often. But these are normally pretty good, but they seem pretty terrible this year.

This is the official projection of Baseball Prospectus too.

 

[waldo7239117]

Damn Chicago is low. Also, everybody has the Cardinals low and no 1st place finish. They do not look good.

 

[Jntg4]

Damn Chicago is low. Also, everybody has the Cardinals low and no 1st place finish. They do not look good.

I think Milwaukee and the Cubs will have better records than the ones suggested here. Cincinnati is fine where they are listed and St. Louis needs to be lowered by at least 3 wins.

The Sox need to be brought way up, and Minnesota and Detroit should be higher too.

Dodgers need to be brought down.

I really wish I could see Florida in the playoffs... we never will again. In 2012, there will be no team called the Florida Marlins.

 

[poodski]

I don't see anything that sticks out as odd.

 

[Jntg4]

I don't see anything that sticks out as odd.

Texas with just 84 wins, Milwaukee with just 85, Detroit and Minnesota with just 83, the White Sox with just 82, the Cubs with just 80 (debatable), St. Louis reaching 87 wins, Dodgers reaching 87 wins, etc.

 

[poodski]

Texas with just 84 wins, Milwaukee with just 85, Detroit and Minnesota with just 83, the White Sox with just 82, the Cubs with just 80 (debatable), St. Louis reaching 87 wins, Dodgers reaching 87 wins, etc.

Maybe the Dodgers seem off the rest seem fine.

 

[Jntg4]

Maybe the Dodgers seem off the rest seem fine.

White Sox at 82 wins???

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

let's save this thread until the end of the season

 

[Jntg4]

let's save this thread until the end of the season

We should keep it pinned all season to test for accuracy and to not lose it.

 

[poodski]

White Sox at 82 wins???

What about it?

 

[Jntg4]

What about it?

That's pretty damn low if you ask me. They had a good off-season and had 88 wins last year.

 

[poodski]

That's pretty damn low if you ask me. They had a good off-season and had 88 wins last year.

Eh. The ALC is still pretty top heavy and the AL as a whole is better as well.

 

[Jntg4]

Eh. The ALC is still pretty top heavy and the AL as a whole is better as well.

I still don't see how they get worse by 6 games when they just got a huge power hitter in Adam Dunn and now have a SOLID power game in Dunn, Konerko, and Rios, great speed in Pierre, and a few nice pieces in Pierzynski and Beckham. also will have Sale for a whole year so there shouldn't be the closer worries that Jenks brought. And they have a solid pitching staff in general.

 

[DewsSox79]

This thread will be saved. I will save it for when the season is over. I bet the NL central and AL central are different.

 

[poodski]

~

This thread will be saved. I will save it for when the season is over. I bet the NL central and AL central are different.

I am sure they will be plenty wrong. I am sure most teams will be plenty wrong I doubt they get more than lets say two or three perfectly right, and I bet more than half are off by more than 5 wins.

Regardless I am sure you are also upset by the White Sox number, but no one seems to be shocked or upset about the Twins? Did they really do so much to their team to deserve to be knocked down 11 wins?

It will be wrong I am sure, but I don't see anyone really being upset about other than maybe the Dodgers.

 

[Jntg4]

I am sure they will be plenty wrong. I am sure most teams will be plenty wrong I doubt they get more than lets say two or three perfectly right, and I bet more than half are off by more than 5 wins.

Regardless I am sure you are also upset by the White Sox number, but no one seems to be shocked or upset about the Twins? Did they really do so much to their team to deserve to be knocked down 11 wins?

It will be wrong I am sure, but I don't see anyone really being upset about other than maybe the Dodgers.

I said that the Twins and Tigers were too low too.

 

[poodski]

I said that the Twins and Tigers were too low too.

So how many wins do you want out of the central? Want all three to win 90 games? What about Boston and NY? What about Texas and Oakland? There are only a finite amount of wins out there.

 

[Jntg4]

So how many wins do you want out of the central? Want all three to win 90 games? What about Boston and NY? What about Texas and Oakland? There are only a finite amount of wins out there.

Set the Sox at 89, Minny at 88, Detroit at 87? IDK.

 

[poodski]

Set the Sox at 89, Minny at 88, Detroit at 87? IDK.

So who are you taking those 16 wins from?

 

[Jntg4]

So who are you taking those 16 wins from?

NL teams in interleague, the Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals, IDK.