2011 PECOTA Team Projections

[poodski]

IDK.

Exactly.

That's why I don't have a problem with the numbers given. It has the White Sox, Twins and Tigers withing one game. Hell I think thats more important than anything.

 

[DewsSox79]

That's pretty damn low if you ask me. They had a good off-season and had 88 wins last year.

replacing kotsay with Dunn. better BP. Edwin jackson all year.

 

[Jntg4]

replacing kotsay with Dunn. better BP. Edwin jackson all year.

Dunn is huge, Sale is huge, Jenks is gone, all good. Not sold on Edwin Jackson though, he was pretty bad with Arizona part from the no-no, but turned it around in the AL. Let's see if he carries it over.

But that's a damn good off-season.

 

[nickofypres]

Sox should be a minimal 90 wins. Even if they play at the same level, they won't have Jenks blowing games or Linebrink being awful.

 

[Jntg4]

Sox should be a minimal 90 wins. Even if they play at the same level, they won't have Jenks blowing games or Linebrink being awful.

My thoughts too. I don't know why I wrote 89 here when trying to boost them up.

 

[DewsSox79]

Sox should be a minimal 90 wins. Even if they play at the same level, they won't have Jenks blowing games or Linebrink being awful.

and it isnt us being homers. we actually have a solid contending team, im always negative about the sox, but i think they have a pretty damn good team...especially better than pecota's projections.

 

[Jntg4]

and it isnt us being homers. we actually have a solid contending team, im always negative about the sox, but i think they have a pretty damn good team...especially better than pecota's projections.

:yep:

Not ism from you guys. I believe the same.

 

[DewsSox79]

:yep:

Not ism from you guys. I believe the same.

like i said im usually negative

 

[Jntg4]

like i said im usually negative

Ya, IK. I agreed with you about the Sox.

 

[poodski]

Sox should be a minimal 90 wins. Even if they play at the same level, they won't have Jenks blowing games or Linebrink being awful.

We will see, I just dont know where its going to come from with Boston and Oakland getting better as well.

We will see though.

 

[DewsSox79]

We will see, I just dont know where its going to come from with Boston and Oakland getting better as well.

We will see though.

we arent in their division.

 

[nickofypres]

We will see, I just dont know where its going to come from with Boston and Oakland getting better as well.

We will see though.

We already lose to Boston and Oakland during the regular season, so, nothing really changing.

 

[DewsSox79]

We already lose to Boston and Oakland during the regular season, so, nothing really changing.

in just a handful of games that we play them. all we have to do is tighten up on KC and Cleveland.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

I believe you guys will probably win around 93 games.. but it isn't to say that 85 and behind the Twins isn't impossible either.

 

[poodski]

We already lose to Boston and Oakland during the regular season, so, nothing really changing.

Well this thing has the division only winning 391 games compared to the 399 last year. So it's got 8 games lost during out of division play.

Regardless the whole point I am trying to make is unless one of the three teams falls off I don't see any of them winning over 88 games.

Even if you bring those eight wins back and give 4 to the sox and two to the others it still only leaves you with 86 wins.

I think all three teams are ridiculously even and I don't see anyway any gets to 90 without a team falling way back.

 

[nickofypres]

Detroit really isn't that even with us. After Verlander the rotation is suspect, except for their 3-4-5, their offense isn't anything special, and except for Valverde their pen isn't all that great, and with the exception of Jackson and Inge, their defense sucks.

Sox and Minnesota are a notch above Detroit.

 

[Jntg4]

Detroit really isn't that even with us. After Verlander the rotation is suspect, except for their 3-4-5, their offense isn't anything special, and except for Valverde their pen isn't all that great, and with the exception of Jackson and Inge, their defense sucks.

Sox and Minnesota are a notch above Detroit.

Ya, Sox-Min-Det-Who cares after that?

 

[DewsSox79]

Well this thing has the division only winning 391 games compared to the 399 last year. So it's got 8 games lost during out of division play.

Regardless the whole point I am trying to make is unless one of the three teams falls off I don't see any of them winning over 88 games.

Even if you bring those eight wins back and give 4 to the sox and two to the others it still only leaves you with 86 wins.

I think all three teams are ridiculously even and I don't see anyway any gets to 90 without a team falling way back.

 

[FirstTimer]

I think everyone is taking this Baseball Prospectus stuff incorrectly.

IIRC BP's projections they come out with are the average of thousand of simulations they run rather than a one time predictor of what a team will do. That's why so many teams end up around .500 or barely over in these things.

 

[Jntg4]

I think everyone is taking this Baseball Prospectus stuff incorrectly.

IIRC BP's projections they come out with are the average of thousand of simulations they run rather than a one time predictor of what a team will do. That's why so many teams end up around .500 or barely over in these things.

Probably right...