2014 CUBS TRADE RUMOR CHAT

[chibears55]

•The Blue Jays are highly unlikely to deal for Cubs hurler Jeff Samardzija, and the clubs have not swapped trade proposals in some time. While a deal centered around pitching prospects Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris has been floated in the media, a source tells Heyman that there is “zero chance” that Toronto would part with that package


•That would seem to reflect a desire to add bats, but GM Jack Zduriencik says that he is “wide open” in approaching acquisitions. According to Heyman, the team is interested in adding controllable, younger bats or starting pitching. Seattle has spoken with the Cubs about both Hammel and Samardzija, though the club remains loath to give up either Taijuan Walker or James Paxton. While the club seemingly would deal away some of its young position players — such as Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak, and Nick Franklin — it seems disinclined to part with them for less than a compelling return.

 

[chibears55]

Heyman says the Blue Jays, in addition to desiring a second base upgrade, would prefer to pick up a rental starter like Jason Hammel, rather than going deep on a more expensive piece like Samardzija. The rental market is still pretty cloudy (which also delays pretty much all trade talks), with guys like Justin Masterson, Francisco Liriano, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jake Peavy all potentially becoming available over the next month.


http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/06/trade-rumors-danny-duffy-to-the-cubs/

The Royals continued strong play has made them a popular destination in Jeff Samardzija rumors. One name that is popping up in trade rumors is 25-year old lefty Danny Duffy. A third round pick in the 2007 draft, Duffy emerged as one of the Royals top prospects before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2012. (Hipster Tommy John surgery: he had it before it was cool.) Duffy has a mid 90s fastball which he complements with a plus curve and a changeup. This year, his strikeouts numbers are down but so are his walk totals. If you're looking to get someone similar to Jake Arrieta in a Jeff Samardzija trade, Duffy is a good guy to hope for.

 

[chibears55]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/...ngels-are-interested-but-do-they-have-enough/

That brings us to Ken Rosenthal’s latest, which has the Angels interested in Jason Hammel, whom the Cubs are expected to trade in the coming weeks (even as soon as next week). The Angels do have a rotation need, and Hammel seems like a pretty good fit.

… but do they have enough to get him?

Well, the answer has to be yes, given all I said above. The better question, I think, is whether they’re a good fit for what the Cubs would like in return (presumably upper level prospects – starting pitcher, outfield bat, or catcher).

On the prospect side, it’s a thin, thin story. The Angels’ consensus top prospect, Taylor Lindsey, is a 22-year-old second baseman at AAA who did not make most top 100 lists. Their top pitching prospect, R.J. Alvarez, is dominating at AA … but he’s 23 and he’s a reliever. Their top starting pitching prospect coming into the season, Mark Sappington, is currently getting blasted at High-A. And he’s 23, also.

On the big league roster, one guy that jumps out to me as a really interesting piece for the Cubs is right fielder Kole Calhoun. At 26 and pre-arb, Calhoun could be an outfield fit for the Cubs for several years (particularly as a bridge to some of the coming prospects), and he offers quite a bit of offensive production from the left side for a guy that has been relegated to a somewhat complementary role with the Angels (although he’s heated up lately, and is playing more regularly). It’s not clear whether the Angels would want to rob Peter to pay Paul by losing Calhoun to upgrade the rotation, but I do like what he brings: a career .270/.333/.447 line with a 119 wRC+, 8.9% BB rate, 19.5% K rate, and average defense. There could be some power upside, too, as his ISO has been climbing over the past three years (and hasn’t yet reached his minor league levels). Let’s call him a sneaky good target, not unlike what the Cubs got last year for Scott Feldman in Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop.

 

[beckdawg]

I'd be cool with Hammel and Valbuena to the Jays for Norris and Dalton Pompey. You could toss in some more filler for either side if need be but I personally like that better than Shark for those two and Sanchez.

 

[beckdawg]

Taken from bleacher nation

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/24/accessing-the-blue-jays-needs-at-trade-deadline-approaches

Bob Elliott writes about just that, and hears from a National League executive – presumably not with the Cubs – that the Jays really need Samardzija.

Elliott calls it “a wild one” that the Jays would be willing to trade the Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, and Dalton Pompey package, and instead suggests that’s not even what the Cubs want – he hears they’re still looking for strictly pitching prospects, and they want four of them.

 

[CSF77]

Heyman says the Blue Jays, in addition to desiring a second base upgrade, would prefer to pick up a rental starter like Jason Hammel, rather than going deep on a more expensive piece like Samardzija. The rental market is still pretty cloudy (which also delays pretty much all trade talks), with guys like Justin Masterson, Francisco Liriano, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jake Peavy all potentially becoming available over the next month.


http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/06/trade-rumors-danny-duffy-to-the-cubs/

The Royals continued strong play has made them a popular destination in Jeff Samardzija rumors. One name that is popping up in trade rumors is 25-year old lefty Danny Duffy. A third round pick in the 2007 draft, Duffy emerged as one of the Royals top prospects before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2012. (Hipster Tommy John surgery: he had it before it was cool.) Duffy has a mid 90s fastball which he complements with a plus curve and a changeup. This year, his strikeouts numbers are down but so are his walk totals. If you're looking to get someone similar to Jake Arrieta in a Jeff Samardzija trade, Duffy is a good guy to hope for.

Sounds like a lame return

 

[CSF77]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/...ngels-are-interested-but-do-they-have-enough/

That brings us to Ken Rosenthal’s latest, which has the Angels interested in Jason Hammel, whom the Cubs are expected to trade in the coming weeks (even as soon as next week). The Angels do have a rotation need, and Hammel seems like a pretty good fit.

… but do they have enough to get him?

Well, the answer has to be yes, given all I said above. The better question, I think, is whether they’re a good fit for what the Cubs would like in return (presumably upper level prospects – starting pitcher, outfield bat, or catcher).

On the prospect side, it’s a thin, thin story. The Angels’ consensus top prospect, Taylor Lindsey, is a 22-year-old second baseman at AAA who did not make most top 100 lists. Their top pitching prospect, R.J. Alvarez, is dominating at AA … but he’s 23 and he’s a reliever. Their top starting pitching prospect coming into the season, Mark Sappington, is currently getting blasted at High-A. And he’s 23, also.

On the big league roster, one guy that jumps out to me as a really interesting piece for the Cubs is right fielder Kole Calhoun. At 26 and pre-arb, Calhoun could be an outfield fit for the Cubs for several years (particularly as a bridge to some of the coming prospects), and he offers quite a bit of offensive production from the left side for a guy that has been relegated to a somewhat complementary role with the Angels (although he’s heated up lately, and is playing more regularly). It’s not clear whether the Angels would want to rob Peter to pay Paul by losing Calhoun to upgrade the rotation, but I do like what he brings: a career .270/.333/.447 line with a 119 wRC+, 8.9% BB rate, 19.5% K rate, and average defense. There could be some power upside, too, as his ISO has been climbing over the past three years (and hasn’t yet reached his minor league levels). Let’s call him a sneaky good target, not unlike what the Cubs got last year for Scott Feldman in Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop.

Somewhat Like this return. Fills the need for a LH bat in the OF. The thought of Sweeney, Kalish or Cog starting next year.

 

[ZAN]

I like the idea of dealing with the "win now" Mariners. I really like the prospects of Nick Franklin/Dustin Ackley. Also would be willing to take a flier on a Jesus Montero. We need C depth in the organization.

 

[CSF77]

I like the idea of dealing with the "win now" Mariners. I really like the prospects of Nick Franklin/Dustin Ackley. Also would be willing to take a flier on a Jesus Montero. We need C depth in the organization.

Ackley? Career .242 BA? Wow though we had enough of under producing LH hitting OF.
Franklin career BA .214....ok another Barney?

Wow just think Hammel for Barney and Cog....ya great return.

Montero: played AAA: 222 AB's .270/.345/.455 8 HR's.
But they moved him to 1B. His D at catcher was sub par anyways. He has potential but not as a catcher.

 

[ZAN]

Nick Franklin is an unwritten book. It's not like we'd be trading Shark for a package from Seattle anyways.

I don't think anyone expects major return from Hammel or Arrieta. You could easily play the "career numbers" game with those two arms, as well.

 

[CSF77]

Nick Franklin is an unwritten book. It's not like we'd be trading Shark for a package from Seattle anyways.

I don't think anyone expects major return from Hammel or Arrieta. You could easily play the "career numbers" game with those two arms, as well.

Arrieta is long term. They have control until 2018. He is going nowhere. Not to mention he is turning the page right now. Right now he is 28. He will hit Arb1 at 29, 30 Arb2 31 Arb3. So his prime years are under control. Why trade it?

Hammel will be 32 in Sept. He will be looking at a deal at 32 to cover his prime years. Career wise his numbers have been like Jackson's. He is peaking this year though so sell high.

 

[chibears55]

@TheCCO: MT @CSNCubs A TOR scout is here at Wrigley today w/Hammel pitching.Said he'll be here tomorrow (Samardzija) & follow Cubs on road to BOS too

 

[beckdawg]

Arrieta is long term. They have control until 2018. He is going nowhere. Not to mention he is turning the page right now. Right now he is 28. He will hit Arb1 at 29, 30 Arb2 31 Arb3. So his prime years are under control. Why trade it?

You don't unless someone vastly over pays which at this time of year happens more than you'd think. I get why people like Arrieta right now but let's say someone offers a return of a #2 starter(like say Garza) for him right now. Do you take it? I ask because 6 months ago we were hoping he'd be good enough to be a #5 starter. People often get caught up in short term results rather than the whole picture. I don't think you take a Feldman like return for him. I'm just suggesting that there is potentially more out there for a guy with that sort of cost control you talk about.

 

[CSF77]

You don't unless someone vastly over pays which at this time of year happens more than you'd think. I get why people like Arrieta right now but let's say someone offers a return of a #2 starter(like say Garza) for him right now. Do you take it? I ask because 6 months ago we were hoping he'd be good enough to be a #5 starter. People often get caught up in short term results rather than the whole picture. I don't think you take a Feldman like return for him. I'm just suggesting that there is potentially more out there for a guy with that sort of cost control you talk about.

Right now he is building up legit value. He doesn't have a long track record going into this season. They would be better served looking at this at next year this point where he has a established (more so) value.

My hang up with him is he is 28 right now. It makes sense to keep him in a 2-3 year window and sell after. By then he will be in his early 30's and would be looking at a payday contract. Rather have them trade in his arb 2 or 3 year vs pre arb.

Here is the deal:

Teams know they can not retain shark after next year. So they are only buying 1+ years of control. He has stated he will become a F/A. That lowers the return alone. No long term.

Hammel has built up value but again a 1 year rental. I could see Theo tossing in a player to up the return.

Arrieta has no track record going into this season. If he had 1 year of success going into this year it would be another story.

 

[beckdawg]

I like the idea of dealing with the "win now" Mariners. I really like the prospects of Nick Franklin/Dustin Ackley. Also would be willing to take a flier on a Jesus Montero. We need C depth in the organization.

I can see the interest some what in Franklin/Ackley. 3 years ago Ackley had 16.6%/11.5% bb/k rates while hitting .303/.421/.487. He's also a left handed bat. The problem as I see it though is he's not a particularly good defensive outfielder. This is the same thing I bring up when people talk about Alcantara in CF. He's got a career -21.3 UZR/150 in CF. He, like lake, has been better in LF at 10.1 but the barrier to what's good there is so much lower. His value is at 2B but the cubs like the M's already have a ton of value there. And even if you project his AAA numbers from 3 years ago you're still talking about 10-15 HRs and 15-20 SBs. At 2B tat production is pretty decent if he gets to it but at LF it's really not that great and he's not a good fit in CF. Franklin similarly can hit from the left side(switch), had good bb/k rates in AAA but has sort of the same problem. He was a SS in the minors.

I think both are interesting Olt like pieces in a trade but neither should be headline pieces because they aren't likely to be starters.

 

[CSF77]

This is what I would do:

Domonic Brown‘s trade value is dropping by the day, says Stark. Scouts have been watching Brown (and the Phillies in general) over the past couple of weeks, and Philadelphia is trying to bill Brown as “a guy who did it once before so he can do it again.” However, Stark has a hard time seeing Brown fetching anything more than another change-of-scenery candidate.

I would swap Lake for Brown. Cubs have a real need for a LH power bat in the line up going into next year. That covers LF until Schwarber promotes.

Then add Alcantara/Baez/Bryant in Sept.

Traded out: Shark/Hammel/Bonifacio/Schierholtz/Barney.

I would package as much as I could.

Stark has received no indications that the Yankees are shopping for a third baseman. He hears that they’re prioritizing the rotation over everything else at this time.

Thsi a team that I feel could be a match up for Hammel. Say they trade Hammel, Barney and Olt.
The return: Ian Clarkin and Manny Banuelos. Manny hit the 7 day DL so some flags are coming up but Olt brings his own set of red flags.

Over all it gives the Yanks a plus D option at 2B and some one to man 3B until A-Roid comes back. Not to mention they could move Olt around or DH to give him more playing time.

Clarkin is a solid return adding Banuelos makes it a good return.

Shark is not going to get this huge return. After 2015 he is gone and all teams will be in on the bid. View of that I would have to place it in theis offseason and next as my window. Blue Jays, Royals and the M's all all in right now. If the Yanks bolster their rotation the Jays have to do the same. M's have to keep in the wild card hunt and have the LAA to deal with.

I just think the hot bed is in the AL East right now. Jays will have a bigger need if the Yanks add a legit arm. Basically you trade Hammel to the Yanks to up the price for shark to the Jays. Play both sides of the fence.

 

[CSF77]

I can see the interest some what in Franklin/Ackley. 3 years ago Ackley had 16.6%/11.5% bb/k rates while hitting .303/.421/.487. He's also a left handed bat. The problem as I see it though is he's not a particularly good defensive outfielder. This is the same thing I bring up when people talk about Alcantara in CF. He's got a career -21.3 UZR/150 in CF. He, like lake, has been better in LF at 10.1 but the barrier to what's good there is so much lower. His value is at 2B but the cubs like the M's already have a ton of value there. And even if you project his AAA numbers from 3 years ago you're still talking about 10-15 HRs and 15-20 SBs. At 2B tat production is pretty decent if he gets to it but at LF it's really not that great and he's not a good fit in CF. Franklin similarly can hit from the left side(switch), had good bb/k rates in AAA but has sort of the same problem. He was a SS in the minors.

I think both are interesting Olt like pieces in a trade but neither should be headline pieces because they aren't likely to be starters.

Guy I would like to get a return on is Brett Gardner.

Yanks OF now: Soriano/Ellsbury/Beltran/Suzuki/Gardner Past this year: Gardner/Ellsbury/Beltran. If the Cubs were able to get Gardner in return he becomes the CF long term.

In a deal like that You would have to up the Cubs side some. A mega deal would be Hammel, Castro for Gardner (signed til 2019) and Clarkin.

That gives the Yanks a long term SS. A 1 year fix at SP. Right now they have depth in the OF and they are adding A-Rod next year. Adding a LF is easier than replacing Jeter.

Cubs gain a top end CF lead off long term. They let Baez and Alcantara play their natural positions next year.

Looking at it:
CF: Gardner
2B Alcantara
1B: Rizzo
3B: Bryant
SS: Baez

It becomes a strong starting point. Clarkin would be in AA next year. Shark's return would have to MLB ready. I still believe they need to sign an Ace though via F/A in the offseason though.

 

[TL1961]

You don't unless someone vastly over pays which at this time of year happens more than you'd think. I get why people like Arrieta right now but let's say someone offers a return of a #2 starter(like say Garza) for him right now. Do you take it? I ask because 6 months ago we were hoping he'd be good enough to be a #5 starter. People often get caught up in short term results rather than the whole picture. I don't think you take a Feldman like return for him. I'm just suggesting that there is potentially more out there for a guy with that sort of cost control you talk about.

I understand that is the offer is good enough, you listen.

I am not caught up in Arrieta based on a few starts. I expected good things from him as soon as we got him - or at least I should say "hoped for" more than "expected". But the comments we read at the time of the trade made me hopeful we got a real good return for Feldman, and I think it's fair to say we did.

I just don't want to trade off every pitcher we have.

I love that they bought low and sold high on Feldman and Maholm. And I think the returns they got for Dempster and Garza were very good, even after Dempster screwed them on the first trade.

But somebody has to pitch for us. Wood and Arrieta would be the guys they will not be looking to trade, I would think. (And nobody will ever want Edwin Jackson, so we're stuck with him.)

 

[TL1961]

Trade Castro and it will be Lou Brock all over again.

 

[SilenceS]

A couple of things, to trade Castro and Hammel for an about to be 31 year old CF and a pitcher in A ball that has the most upside of a 2 but most likely you are looking at a 3 or worse. Yea, no thanks. Also, Baez natural position isnt short. He played more OF in his life. Yet again, he became a SS as a senior in HS and he isnt very good at it. Alcantara wasnt naturally a second baseman and has commited as many errors there as Baez has at short. Its why he has been playing CF as well. The whole Alcantara UZR and all is dumb for CF. He hasnt played out there much and he is learning how to play there. He has plenty enough speed and is a great athlete. He would have no problem going there.