2014 CUBS TRADE RUMOR CHAT

[SilenceS]

On Jake Arrieta, I highly doubt the Cubs are listening much. Any team trying to trade for him now is trying to steal him. They would be hoping he has turned the corner and will take a shot with some lowball offer. He is under control and is blossoming under Bosio. His peripherals are saying it isnt just luck. They are saying more that the lightbulb turned on. To trade away Shark, Hammel, and Arrieta would set the team back another couple of years easily.

 

[beckdawg]

On Jake Arrieta, I highly doubt the Cubs are listening much. Any team trying to trade for him now is trying to steal him. They would be hoping he has turned the corner and will take a shot with some lowball offer. He is under control and is blossoming under Bosio. His peripherals are saying it isnt just luck. They are saying more that the lightbulb turned on. To trade away Shark, Hammel, and Arrieta would set the team back another couple of years easily.

Not sure I'd go that far about the peripherals. He's got a 4.9% HR/FB rate when his career marks are 11.6%. Even if his new approach has increased his groundball ratio, 5% is really low. Felix Hernandez who's easily a better pitcher in a pitcher friendly park for half his games and having a similar career groundball ratio to Arreita this year was around 10%. His strand rate is also ridiculously high at 81.4% for someone with a career 68.6% rate. If he had qualified innings(around 30 off) he would have the 5th highest in the majors. It's hard to say exactly where he should be ERA wise. His xFIP would put him at 2.57. If you toss in a regression in his strand rate I'm guessing he'd be in the 3.50 ERA range which isn't bad by any means but a stark contrast to his current 2.05 ERA. I'm also not sure I trust his walk rate to stay where it is at 2.37. He's closer to a 4 bb/9 for his career.

That being said, I'd be surprised if he's traded because I doubt anyone will offer what you'd need to trade a piece having this sort of year with 4 years of team control left. I mean you're probably talking at least the Garza trade maybe more sure things rather than what Olt/Edwards were and that might be low. However, I don't think it would set them back as much as people think though that sort of determined by return. They can easily add two 2/3 starters in the off season to replace Shark and Hammel assuming there's anyone worth their time there. From there you're just back filling with trade returns. Hendricks will have done enough to deserve a shot likely before the end of the season. Grimm and Ramirez probably deserve one. And that's before you consider the potential returns not to mention Edwards and Johnson who are arguably the best pitching prospects they have. Also there's the Bosio magic factor in that everything he touches seems to turn to gold.

In all honesty, it's Shark that would be the only real difficult thing to replace. I liked Hammel prior to the season and even suggested him as someone they could target if they bombed on Tanaka. I also liked the upside of Arrieta at the time of the Feldman trade. However, had I asked pretty much anyone here prior to the season I'm sure most would have traded either given what they likely should return at this point and rightly so. The cubs issue isn't really 3-5. They've got numerous interesting options there. It's the 1/2 slots they don't have. If Shark, Arrieta, and Hammels all return a #2 or higher potential pitcher(or better) I would likely move all three because even if someone like Hendrick's fails as a 4/5th starter, they've shown the ability to find great bargains in FA there. Unfortunately you can't really turn those types into a Kershaw level pitcher. I'm not saying you give them away but if you get a reasonable offer for them you have to consider it.

 

[beckdawg]

The whole Alcantara UZR and all is dumb for CF. He hasnt played out there much and he is learning how to play there. He has plenty enough speed and is a great athlete. He would have no problem going there.

There's more to CF than speed. If that's all it were, then Lake and Bonifacio would be better than below average or worse in CF. Those two and Alcantara can play CF but that doesn't mean they will necessarily be any good at it. Of the 19 starting CF with qualified innings this year, only BJ Upton, Coco Crisp, and Billy Hamilton were former 2B. If you wanna toss in SS into that, Adam Jones payed 275 games at SS between rookie league and AA as a 17-19 year old but after that he went full time OF having 179 games in CF and 19 in RF before promotion. Similarly, Hamilton was a SS/2B(primarily SS) from 18-21 in rookie-AA. He played one game of SS in AAA but played 118 games in CF in AAA before promotion. Crisp played 64 games as a 19 year old in rookie league and 4 as a 20 year old in A- and was a OF from there after. Upton spent the majority of his minor league time at SS playing 428 of his 464 minor league games there. So, can it be done? Yes. However, it's no where near as common a move as SS to 3B or SS to 2B. Hell, even Soriano who was a 40/40 guy ended up playing LF.

Alcantara has 6 games in the OF. To assume he can play CF in the majors based on that seems like a huge stretch to me. Additionally, if they thought his best position was going to be CF, they should/would have moved him there when Baez came up to AA and supplant him. Granted there wasn't a ton of talent ahead of him at 2B but obviously they knew there were questions about Baez at SS and the fact they already had Castro. And Watkins and Barney plus that Baez possibility are far and away better than what the cubs have in the OF in AA/AAA. You're talking about Lake, Brett Jackson, Jae-Hoon Ha, Matt Szczur, Vitters, and Ryan Kalish to fill 3 slots.

 

[CSF77]

I would be ok with Baez in CF. He played 2B first then went to CF then his senior year he played SS.

I'm worried about him crashing into a wall but outside of that he has the time in at least.

 

[chibears55]

I would be ok with Baez in CF. He played 2B first then went to CF then his senior year he played SS.

I'm worried about him crashing into a wall but outside of that he has the time in at least.

I personally dont care where they play the 3, I just want to see them up and in the everyday lineup ASAP

 

[CSF77]

I personally dont care where they play the 3, I just want to see them up and in the everyday lineup ASAP

That is why I posted:
Alcantara
Castro
Rizzo
Bryant
Baez

IDC where they end up. They are in for their bats. You just plug them in where you lose less on D vs expecting a prime D.

If Alcantara and Baez are equal at 2B but Alcantara is better at CF than Baez then you move Alcantara to CF. Pretty easy to figure out.

You don't go by UZR factors here. You go by who can play CF better than the other. Not where they match up against other CF...who cares to be honest.

In the end I'm feeling that they want Schwarber in LF, Almora in CF and Soler in RF. Where Castro, Bryant, Alcantara and Baez end up we can't even start to predict based off of minor league production.

 

[chibears55]

@TheCCO: #Cubs: Report: Blue Jays Scouting Barney and Villanueva along with Samardzija and Hammel bit.ly/1qG2O25 #MLB

 

[SilenceS]

There's more to CF than speed. If that's all it were, then Lake and Bonifacio would be better than below average or worse in CF. Those two and Alcantara can play CF but that doesn't mean they will necessarily be any good at it. Of the 19 starting CF with qualified innings this year, only BJ Upton, Coco Crisp, and Billy Hamilton were former 2B. If you wanna toss in SS into that, Adam Jones payed 275 games at SS between rookie league and AA as a 17-19 year old but after that he went full time OF having 179 games in CF and 19 in RF before promotion. Similarly, Hamilton was a SS/2B(primarily SS) from 18-21 in rookie-AA. He played one game of SS in AAA but played 118 games in CF in AAA before promotion. Crisp played 64 games as a 19 year old in rookie league and 4 as a 20 year old in A- and was a OF from there after. Upton spent the majority of his minor league time at SS playing 428 of his 464 minor league games there. So, can it be done? Yes. However, it's no where near as common a move as SS to 3B or SS to 2B. Hell, even Soriano who was a 40/40 guy ended up playing LF.

Alcantara has 6 games in the OF. To assume he can play CF in the majors based on that seems like a huge stretch to me. Additionally, if they thought his best position was going to be CF, they should/would have moved him there when Baez came up to AA and supplant him. Granted there wasn't a ton of talent ahead of him at 2B but obviously they knew there were questions about Baez at SS and the fact they already had Castro. And Watkins and Barney plus that Baez possibility are far and away better than what the cubs have in the OF in AA/AAA. You're talking about Lake, Brett Jackson, Jae-Hoon Ha, Matt Szczur, Vitters, and Ryan Kalish to fill 3 slots.

They moved him off of short just last year. He went to second because that was a position they wanted to see him in. He has now played in CF. There is a reason for that. If they think they are going to move Baez to second at some point, then he is going to take precedent over Alcantara. Castro isnt moving and Bryant and Baez are going to be put ahead of Alcantara. You keep dismissing CF, but you havent seen him play it. The Cubs evidentally think he can play there cause they have had him play there. The more versatility a player like Alcantara has the better. He isnt going to smash a ton of homeruns. He isnt going to bat over .300. He is going to be a solid switch hitter with some pop and some speed. That is realistically what you can hope for from him. Also, yet again, he has 11 errors at second. I could understand Short, but second?

 

[SilenceS]

Not sure I'd go that far about the peripherals. He's got a 4.9% HR/FB rate when his career marks are 11.6%. Even if his new approach has increased his groundball ratio, 5% is really low. Felix Hernandez who's easily a better pitcher in a pitcher friendly park for half his games and having a similar career groundball ratio to Arreita this year was around 10%. His strand rate is also ridiculously high at 81.4% for someone with a career 68.6% rate. If he had qualified innings(around 30 off) he would have the 5th highest in the majors. It's hard to say exactly where he should be ERA wise. His xFIP would put him at 2.57. If you toss in a regression in his strand rate I'm guessing he'd be in the 3.50 ERA range which isn't bad by any means but a stark contrast to his current 2.05 ERA. I'm also not sure I trust his walk rate to stay where it is at 2.37. He's closer to a 4 bb/9 for his career.

That being said, I'd be surprised if he's traded because I doubt anyone will offer what you'd need to trade a piece having this sort of year with 4 years of team control left. I mean you're probably talking at least the Garza trade maybe more sure things rather than what Olt/Edwards were and that might be low. However, I don't think it would set them back as much as people think though that sort of determined by return. They can easily add two 2/3 starters in the off season to replace Shark and Hammel assuming there's anyone worth their time there. From there you're just back filling with trade returns. Hendricks will have done enough to deserve a shot likely before the end of the season. Grimm and Ramirez probably deserve one. And that's before you consider the potential returns not to mention Edwards and Johnson who are arguably the best pitching prospects they have. Also there's the Bosio magic factor in that everything he touches seems to turn to gold.

In all honesty, it's Shark that would be the only real difficult thing to replace. I liked Hammel prior to the season and even suggested him as someone they could target if they bombed on Tanaka. I also liked the upside of Arrieta at the time of the Feldman trade. However, had I asked pretty much anyone here prior to the season I'm sure most would have traded either given what they likely should return at this point and rightly so. The cubs issue isn't really 3-5. They've got numerous interesting options there. It's the 1/2 slots they don't have. If Shark, Arrieta, and Hammels all return a #2 or higher potential pitcher(or better) I would likely move all three because even if someone like Hendrick's fails as a 4/5th starter, they've shown the ability to find great bargains in FA there. Unfortunately you can't really turn those types into a Kershaw level pitcher. I'm not saying you give them away but if you get a reasonable offer for them you have to consider it.

This is where you need to know a pitcher and not just look at numbers.

Dale (KY)

Are you buying in on Jake Arrieta? His Babip says he might actually get a little better?

Klaw

Maybe ease up on the BABIP scouting a little. He's pretty clearly a legit starter now, though - better FB command, plus that cutter (or just a harder slider) is the best offspeed option he's ever had.

 

[SilenceS]

Just another note, Junior Lake has played CF for this team. He plays a total of 6 games in the OF in the minors. The Cubs evidentally dont mind putting an inexperience player in CF. Also, Alcantara has 142 errors in his 5 minor league career season in the IF. lol

Also, Bonafacio didnt start playing CF until 2009. He has a whopping 110 games there in his career. That includes when he played CF in the minors.

 

[beckdawg]

Also, yet again, he has 11 errors at second. I could understand Short, but second?

I'm a little tired so I might be reading this wrong. I assume you're saying Alcantara has 11 errors at 2B? I'm confused mainly because baseball ref has him at 9 errors(.966 fielding%) at 2B this year. Either way, over all his time at 2B, Alcantara has 767 chances with only 38 errors or a .950 fielding%. That's pretty decent. Obviously fielding% isn't the end all stat for defense but you're unlikely to find good coverage of defense stats wise in the minors anyways. Either way, it's definitely good enough to play there going forward and possibly good enough as he continues to mature to be a plus there.

As for him in CF, it's either a case of poor foresight or they felt 2B was a better position for him. They obviously have much more information than we do and they are the ones making the plans. So, for them to some how miss the possibility that Baez might need a different position seems far fetched to me. Additionally, OF as I've already mentioned was wide open for prospects as Soler and Almora where the only two high profile OF's and they were ar enough behind Alcantara that it's not a worry of him blocking them. Even if they didn't feel he was a CF, you could have given him reps sooner and slowly transitioned him to a corner OF slot if need be. However, they chose to keep him at 2B until now. That leads me to believe they'd prefer to play him there. Additionally, if he could adequately play CF that'd make him a hell of a lot more valuable as both a player for the cubs and as a trade asset. So, the fact they waited until he was a few months away from the majors to play him there seems frankly odd if that's what ends up happening.

On top of that, when he eventually comes up to the majors you don't want him worrying about his defense. You want him to go out there and focus on hitting. In the case of guys like Upton and Soriano who did move from 2B to OF, Upton didn't play OF in the majors until 2007 which was after he'd seen 95 games and 3 years of near majors development(he was called up in 2004 for 45 games then missed 2005 and split time between AAA and the majors in 2006). In the case of Soriano, he didn't play LF until 2006 which was 8 years after he'd debuted and established himself as a hitter.

If Alcantara plays CF in the majors, I honestly worry he'll have too much new shit going on at once and struggle because of it. I'd much rather see him play the infield where he's played 492 of his 498 games with 441 of those games being at middle infield. In the case of Baez, moving to 3B from SS isn't really a huge transition. So, even though he's not played 3B in the minors I'm not really worried about that. Bryant played some RF in college and his college coach suggested he had Gold Glove potential in RF. However, Alcantara to CF just feels like trying to make shit fit that doesn't. And even if he can play an average CF defensively, you're just going to put yourself in the position to move him again in a few years assuming Almora develops. Almora should be an excellent defensive CF so assuming he hits his way to the majors you'd rather have him there long term. If you stick him at 2B and give him a few years to develop, even if he fails you still have the option to move Baez from 3B to 2B later and allow an opening for someone like Villanueva or Candelario which would allow Bryant to stick in RF.

 

[beckdawg]

This is where you need to know a pitcher and not just look at numbers.

The numbers suggest some regression. You'd have to be naive to believe his current level is sustainable. That doesn't mean he's necessarily a bad pitcher despite a regression just that he's unlikely to have a 2 ERA going forward. No where did I say he was a bum or anything like that.

 

[beckdawg]

Just another note, Junior Lake has played CF for this team. He plays a total of 6 games in the OF in the minors. The Cubs evidentally dont mind putting an inexperience player in CF. Also, Alcantara has 142 errors in his 5 minor league career season in the IF. lol

Also, Bonafacio didnt start playing CF until 2009. He has a whopping 110 games there in his career. That includes when he played CF in the minors.

And neither Bonifacio nor Lake are particularly good in CF. Bonifacio is at best slightly below average there. UZR/150 has him at -3.2 which is passable but not really good. Lake is -21.0 which is out right bad. I'm not saying either is Mark Trumbo in CF but to suggest either is good there is a stretch.

 

[2323]

I would be ok with Baez in CF. He played 2B first then went to CF then his senior year he played SS.

I'm worried about him crashing into a wall but outside of that he has the time in at least.

No way. In CF you have to cover so much ground that it produces too many scenarios where an integral offensive player can get injured.

 

[2323]

There's more to CF than speed. If that's all it were, then Lake and Bonifacio would be better than below average or worse in CF. Those two and Alcantara can play CF but that doesn't mean they will necessarily be any good at it. Of the 19 starting CF with qualified innings this year, only BJ Upton, Coco Crisp, and Billy Hamilton were former 2B. If you wanna toss in SS into that, Adam Jones payed 275 games at SS between rookie league and AA as a 17-19 year old but after that he went full time OF having 179 games in CF and 19 in RF before promotion. Similarly, Hamilton was a SS/2B(primarily SS) from 18-21 in rookie-AA. He played one game of SS in AAA but played 118 games in CF in AAA before promotion. Crisp played 64 games as a 19 year old in rookie league and 4 as a 20 year old in A- and was a OF from there after. Upton spent the majority of his minor league time at SS playing 428 of his 464 minor league games there. So, can it be done? Yes. However, it's no where near as common a move as SS to 3B or SS to 2B. Hell, even Soriano who was a 40/40 guy ended up playing LF.

Alcantara has 6 games in the OF. To assume he can play CF in the majors based on that seems like a huge stretch to me. Additionally, if they thought his best position was going to be CF, they should/would have moved him there when Baez came up to AA and supplant him. Granted there wasn't a ton of talent ahead of him at 2B but obviously they knew there were questions about Baez at SS and the fact they already had Castro. And Watkins and Barney plus that Baez possibility are far and away better than what the cubs have in the OF in AA/AAA. You're talking about Lake, Brett Jackson, Jae-Hoon Ha, Matt Szczur, Vitters, and Ryan Kalish to fill 3 slots.

The biggest attribute of being good at CF is being able to read the ball off contact with the bat. Jim Edmonds wasn't fast but he was really good at reading the flight of the ball. But after that, speed is a huge asset.

 

[dabynsky]

The biggest attribute of being good at CF is being able to read the ball off contact with the bat. Jim Edmonds wasn't fast but he was really good at reading the flight of the ball. But after that, speed is a huge asset.

He was also great at unnecessarily diving for the ball to make plays look better.

 

[SilenceS]

The numbers suggest some regression. You'd have to be naive to believe his current level is sustainable. That doesn't mean he's necessarily a bad pitcher despite a regression just that he's unlikely to have a 2 ERA going forward. No where did I say he was a bum or anything like that.

Yes, there will be regression. My argument was that his numbers said he turned the corner. Maybe I should explain myself better, but I think like KLAW on this subject. He has become a major league starting pitcher that wasnt the case before.

 

[SilenceS]

And neither Bonifacio nor Lake are particularly good in CF. Bonifacio is at best slightly below average there. UZR/150 has him at -3.2 which is passable but not really good. Lake is -21.0 which is out right bad. I'm not saying either is Mark Trumbo in CF but to suggest either is good there is a stretch.

Lake cant play OF at all because he has no instincts. Bonifacio doesnt focus his defense squarely on Center and like I said just started playing it a couple of years ago.

 

[SilenceS]

I'm a little tired so I might be reading this wrong. I assume you're saying Alcantara has 11 errors at 2B? I'm confused mainly because baseball ref has him at 9 errors(.966 fielding%) at 2B this year. Either way, over all his time at 2B, Alcantara has 767 chances with only 38 errors or a .950 fielding%. That's pretty decent. Obviously fielding% isn't the end all stat for defense but you're unlikely to find good coverage of defense stats wise in the minors anyways. Either way, it's definitely good enough to play there going forward and possibly good enough as he continues to mature to be a plus there.

As for him in CF, it's either a case of poor foresight or they felt 2B was a better position for him. They obviously have much more information than we do and they are the ones making the plans. So, for them to some how miss the possibility that Baez might need a different position seems far fetched to me. Additionally, OF as I've already mentioned was wide open for prospects as Soler and Almora where the only two high profile OF's and they were ar enough behind Alcantara that it's not a worry of him blocking them. Even if they didn't feel he was a CF, you could have given him reps sooner and slowly transitioned him to a corner OF slot if need be. However, they chose to keep him at 2B until now. That leads me to believe they'd prefer to play him there. Additionally, if he could adequately play CF that'd make him a hell of a lot more valuable as both a player for the cubs and as a trade asset. So, the fact they waited until he was a few months away from the majors to play him there seems frankly odd if that's what ends up happening.

On top of that, when he eventually comes up to the majors you don't want him worrying about his defense. You want him to go out there and focus on hitting. In the case of guys like Upton and Soriano who did move from 2B to OF, Upton didn't play OF in the majors until 2007 which was after he'd seen 95 games and 3 years of near majors development(he was called up in 2004 for 45 games then missed 2005 and split time between AAA and the majors in 2006). In the case of Soriano, he didn't play LF until 2006 which was 8 years after he'd debuted and established himself as a hitter.

If Alcantara plays CF in the majors, I honestly worry he'll have too much new shit going on at once and struggle because of it. I'd much rather see him play the infield where he's played 492 of his 498 games with 441 of those games being at middle infield. In the case of Baez, moving to 3B from SS isn't really a huge transition. So, even though he's not played 3B in the minors I'm not really worried about that. Bryant played some RF in college and his college coach suggested he had Gold Glove potential in RF. However, Alcantara to CF just feels like trying to make shit fit that doesn't. And even if he can play an average CF defensively, you're just going to put yourself in the position to move him again in a few years assuming Almora develops. Almora should be an excellent defensive CF so assuming he hits his way to the majors you'd rather have him there long term. If you stick him at 2B and give him a few years to develop, even if he fails you still have the option to move Baez from 3B to 2B later and allow an opening for someone like Villanueva or Candelario which would allow Bryant to stick in RF.

Villanueva cant play second from what I am reading. He got to heavy. We will see where these guys end up, but I would venture to guess we will see Alcantara play second and Center for the Cubs at some point.

 

[Boobaby1]

The biggest attribute of being good at CF is being able to read the ball off contact with the bat. Jim Edmonds wasn't fast but he was really good at reading the flight of the ball. But after that, speed is a huge asset.

Alcantara is best suited for CF in the long term for the Cubs. If Almora pushes him in a couple of years, so be it. I'd rather not tax Baez in the outfield, and frankly, I'd like to see Bryant in RF. His profile to me seems a little similar to Jason Werth.

I hope they go out and get a 3B and LF for now, and let Soler, Almora, Vogelbach, and Schwarber ease themselves up the ladder. I don't want all kids playing. As great as it sounds, it is a pipedream and the Cubs need some veteran leadership from outside the organization. Depth is a good thing to have and there is absolutely nothing wrong with free agents. Every good team has them.