2015 Spring Training Thread

[beckdawg]

Yet again, follow the contact rate. Longoria, 76% contact rate in minors. 72% contact rate in the majors his first season. I am not saying Kris Bryant wont be ok but Im seeing .280 plus predictions. Unless he changes his contact rate, you are looking more between .250 to .260. He was top 5 worst contact rate in the minors last season. It will only get worse in the majors. He is going to have to adjust because he will struggle at certain points.

I'd be surprised if he hits .280 especially in his rookie season. If he does he's probably A-Rod/Trout levels of rookie season because as I said a long while back, if he hits .270 with his walk rate you're probably looking at close to a .400 OBP. For the sake of argument let's say Bryant's walk rate dips 2-3% similar to what another decent walking hitter with contact issues in Olt has. At a 12% walk rate over 600 PAs you're talking about 72 walks. Excluding sac flies and such .270 would be roughly 143 hits. That's roughly a .360 OBP. If we instead say .250 you're talking about 132 or .340 OBP. If he hits .230 it's roughly .320 OBP...etc. I believe league average last season was .317 OBP. So, this is what I was getting at when I said even if he struggles it's going to be hard for him not to be at least some what useful.

I honestly don't think his walk rate drops that far though. He's just been so consistent. In 297 both at AA/AAA his walk rate was an identical 14.5%. AFL which again is roughly AA level he put up a 15.2% over 92 PAs. So, in close to 700 PAs at high minors competition we're at roughly 15% walk rate. On the other hand, I'm fairly confident his K rate rises probably to the 33-35% range at least year one. He was 25.0% in AFL, 25.9% in AA and 28.6% in AAA. In ST he's had 7 K's in 23 ABs which is roughly 30%. I'd figured this up previously but I'm slightly unsure about the exact numbers. I believe each % of k is worth 3 points of BA over a full season. So, at the very least 5-7% higher k rate should mean roughly 15-21 points of batting average off his .295 AAA average which would be .274. I'm also guessing his .367 BABIP doesn't hold especially because the PCL is notoriously a hitter league.

Throw all that together, my expectations are something like .240/.330 probably with 25ish HRs. That's roughly what Brandon Moss did last season being worth 2.3 fWAR. That being said, I'd hardly call that "struggling."

 

[SilenceS]

I'd be surprised if he hits .280 especially in his rookie season. If he does he's probably A-Rod/Trout levels of rookie season because as I said a long while back, if he hits .270 with his walk rate you're probably looking at close to a .400 OBP. For the sake of argument let's say Bryant's walk rate dips 2-3% similar to what another decent walking hitter with contact issues in Olt has. At a 12% walk rate over 600 PAs you're talking about 72 walks. Excluding sac flies and such .270 would be roughly 143 hits. That's roughly a .360 OBP. If we instead say .250 you're talking about 132 or .340 OBP. If he hits .230 it's roughly .320 OBP...etc. I believe league average last season was .317 OBP. So, this is what I was getting at when I said even if he struggles it's going to be hard for him not to be at least some what useful.

I honestly don't think his walk rate drops that far though. He's just been so consistent. In 297 both at AA/AAA his walk rate was an identical 14.5%. AFL which again is roughly AA level he put up a 15.2% over 92 PAs. So, in close to 700 PAs at high minors competition we're at roughly 15% walk rate. On the other hand, I'm fairly confident his K rate rises probably to the 33-35% range at least year one. He was 25.0% in AFL, 25.9% in AA and 28.6% in AAA. In ST he's had 7 K's in 23 ABs which is roughly 30%. I'd figured this up previously but I'm slightly unsure about the exact numbers. I believe each % of k is worth 3 points of BA over a full season. So, at the very least 5-7% higher k rate should mean roughly 15-21 points of batting average off his .295 AAA average which would be .274. I'm also guessing his .367 BABIP doesn't hold especially because the PCL is notoriously a hitter league.

Throw all that together, my expectations are something like .240/.330 probably with 25ish HRs. That's roughly what Brandon Moss did last season being worth 2.3 fWAR. That being said, I'd hardly call that "struggling."

I don't think you are looking at Cubs fans predictions then. They may jump off a bridge if they thought that was realistic which was my whole point. And yes, that would mean at times he is going to struggle. No one is thinking league average with him. The point of all my post


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[CSF77]

.250 his rookie season would be awsome compaired to what Baez did last year.

One thing you have failed to address is the learning curve issue in reguards to them both. At ever promotion Baez had a lull then the following year he dominated that league. After a promote he would lull again. AAA he never really had that domination. He got hot after Bryant promoted then they pulled the trigger. IMO too soon.

Bryant has been steady in production after each promotion with little down time.

I get the contact rate but the point was Bryant there is little variance in production vs Baez who will go cold for a month or more then light up like a fire cracker when he adapts.

I'm not saying Baez is a bust but I'm saying he is not ready. Bryant on the other hand came into the minors with 3 years of college ball behind him. Way more polished.

Regardless as a pure hitter Soler is still my pick to be a HOF after it is said and done. Dude has very small holes to his game.

 

[SilenceS]

.250 his rookie season would be awsome compaired to what Baez did last year.

One thing you have failed to address is the learning curve issue in reguards to them both. At ever promotion Baez had a lull then the following year he dominated that league. After a promote he would lull again. AAA he never really had that domination. He got hot after Bryant promoted then they pulled the trigger. IMO too soon.

Bryant has been steady in production after each promotion with little down time.

I get the contact rate but the point was Bryant there is little variance in production vs Baez who will go cold for a month or more then light up like a fire cracker when he adapts.

I'm not saying Baez is a bust but I'm saying he is not ready. Bryant on the other hand came into the minors with 3 years of college ball behind him. Way more polished.

Regardless as a pure hitter Soler is still my pick to be a HOF after it is said and done. Dude has very small holes to his game.

I didn't ignore any of that. I was trying to put in perspective what he will truly be. Read all over the place. People have him penciled in as a superstar off the bat. Mike trout and Bryce Harper has done this to top prospects. Do people remember when profar was considered a lock. Injuries have derailed his development. I want people to keep expectations in tact. The jump from aaa to majors is a lot bigger leap then people think. Rizzo and castro are who people should expect to carry the team. The kids are going to have peaks and valleys. This is baseball. There is a reason the avg rookie is over24


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[CSF77]

I didn't ignore any of that. I was trying to put in perspective what he will truly be. Read all over the place. People have him penciled in as a superstar off the bat. Mike trout and Bryce Harper has done this to top prospects. Do people remember when profar was considered a lock. Injuries have derailed his development. I want people to keep expectations in tact. The jump from aaa to majors is a lot bigger leap then people think. Rizzo and castro are who people should expect to carry the team. The kids are going to have peaks and valleys. This is baseball. There is a reason the avg rookie is over24


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.270 would be fair. You have to remember BB takes away from contact rates also. Bryant has near 2x's the BB% as Baez has in the minors.

That said I feel Paul Goldschmidt is a fair comp for Bryant when he adapts. Baez is more volatile . He reminds me of A-Ram when he would just start up ice cold then when the weather would warm so would his bat. The problem with Baez is his BB rate. At this point Sori is a strong comp. Weak plate discipline but can blow up any pitch and very streaky.

 

[SilenceS]

.270 would be fair. You have to remember BB takes away from contact rates also. Bryant has near 2x's the BB% as Baez has in the minors.

That said I feel Paul Goldschmidt is a fair comp for Bryant when he adapts. Baez is more volatile . He reminds me of A-Ram when he would just start up ice cold then when the weather would warm so would his bat. The problem with Baez is his BB rate. At this point Sori is a strong comp. Weak plate discipline but can blow up any pitch and very streaky.

Contact rate is a direct reflection of batting average. It has to raise to be .270. He should keep a higher then normal babip because of his hard contact. I'm talking this year not future. Rizzo had to adjust and I don't find Bryant as complete as Rizzo right now.


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[fatbeard]

This headline just made me laugh:

Jon Lester dealing with dead arm

"http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/12524213/chicago-cubs-ace-jon-lester-skip-next-spring-start-due-dead-arm"

Gosh, I hope they don't have to amputate! Once the gangrene sets in it's all over.

 

[Bear Pride]

Contact rate is a direct reflection of batting average. It has to raise to be .270. He should keep a higher then normal babip because of his hard contact. I'm talking this year not future. Rizzo had to adjust and I don't find Bryant as complete as Rizzo right now.


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How about production per contact? Is that a metric? Rizzo really improved last year, imo. Some say it was cuz he worked out with Votto, but he clearly improved last year tho. So yes, I think Bryant will get better as he goes along. However, he seems to put up really good production #'s with his contact rate, imo. If he get's better, he could be a phenom, imo.

 

[CSF77]

Contact rate is a direct reflection of batting average. It has to raise to be .270. He should keep a higher then normal babip because of his hard contact. I'm talking this year not future. Rizzo had to adjust and I don't find Bryant as complete as Rizzo right now.


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I think Bryant should fall into Rizzo's first season with the Cubs. Baez went through what Rizzo did with the Padres. But as I've said what concerns me is Baez's BB rate. His creer has been around 5% while that has been a strong point in Rizzo and Bryant. Theo and Jed said they would have passed on Baez that year but didn't realize Javy's drive to be great. I believe it ties to Baez's BB rate. That ties to plate discipline. 10% is where most hitters should strive for.

 

[SilenceS]

I think Bryant should fall into Rizzo's first season with the Cubs. Baez went through what Rizzo did with the Padres. But as I've said what concerns me is Baez's BB rate. His creer has been around 5% while that has been a strong point in Rizzo and Bryant. Theo and Jed said they would have passed on Baez that year but didn't realize Javy's drive to be great. I believe it ties to Baez's BB rate. That ties to plate discipline. 10% is where most hitters should strive for.

Baez has had a better walk rate then Castro. Im not worried about Baez walking because he will never be a big walker. If he can get to around 9%, then the rest of his game has to make up for it. Make no mistake. Baez is a complete ball player with a big flaw that has to be worked out. Bryant is a hitter that the rest of his game is not much. His D would have to improve. But, Bryant has a short compact stroke that fits the majors. I love Baez and Bryant. Bryant is def. the safer bet by a mile. Baez needs Manny and he needs him bad. I believe Manny is the only hitter that can get through to Baez because they have same mentality and talent. I just want Cubs fans to calm down and know that the youngens are coming but you have to be patient. I dont believe in trading Baez because of our depth. I truly believe he is worth the risk to hold on to because if he fines tunes. You have a MI of great proportion. You have backup. I still believe if Schwarber can not stick at catcher he would be a big trade chip for the Cubs. Teams would covet him and others.

 

[SilenceS]

Another thing, I agree with Soler. He is more of a complete hitter then anyone in our system. But, dont sleep on Volgelbach. I know his season was not great but as a complete hitter. This guy in no joke. He has really no position but his bat is very real in my opinion and will be a ML for a long time before its done.

 

[CSF77]

Another thing, I agree with Soler. He is more of a complete hitter then anyone in our system. But, dont sleep on Volgelbach. I know his season was not great but as a complete hitter. This guy in no joke. He has really no position but his bat is very real in my opinion and will be a ML for a long time before its done.

I would say Vogy is #4 behind Soler, Schwarber, and Russell. He takes BB at a strong clip and doesn't SO much. I see him as a DH though long term.

 

[TL1961]

.250 his rookie season would be awsome compaired to what Baez did last year.

One thing you have failed to address is the learning curve issue in reguards to them both. At ever promotion Baez had a lull then the following year he dominated that league. After a promote he would lull again. AAA he never really had that domination. He got hot after Bryant promoted then they pulled the trigger. IMO too soon.

Bryant has been steady in production after each promotion with little down time.

I get the contact rate but the point was Bryant there is little variance in production vs Baez who will go cold for a month or more then light up like a fire cracker when he adapts.

I'm not saying Baez is a bust but I'm saying he is not ready. Bryant on the other hand came into the minors with 3 years of college ball behind him. Way more polished.

Regardless as a pure hitter Soler is still my pick to be a HOF after it is said and done. Dude has very small holes to his game.

Baez' average last season has no bearing on Bryant's.

If Bryant bats .250 it won't be awesome. It will be disappointing. I don't expect to ever see his batting average around .250.

 

[chibears55]

Boras says Bryant a superstar, so I expect nothing less then .330 40 120 from him every year..

Seriously. . I expect Bryant to hover around .280s-.290 this year and .300s career wise..

 

[chibears55]

Interesting lineup for today game against the Mariners.. Baez leading off, probably to get him extra ABs to maybe work on something. .

@TheCCO: #Cubs vs. #Mariners, Hernandez (3/21):
Baez 2B
Fowler CF
Bryant 3B
Soler RF
Rizzo 1B
Castro SS
Coghlan LF
Castillo C
Jokisch P

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Baez' average last season has no bearing on Bryant's.

If Bryant bats .250 it won't be awesome. It will be disappointing. I don't expect to ever see his batting average around .250.

A reasonable but on the optimistic side first season for Bryant would be .275/.360/.530 with 30 HR. He's going to struggle in stretches which will keep the average and OPS down from his potential. He should outperforming those averages late in the season. I agree that .250 would be a serious disappointment but .270 would not be. Anyone that thinks he's hitting .290 or above his rookie year is dreaming.

 

[SilenceS]

A reasonable but on the optimistic side first season for Bryant would be .275/.360/.530 with 30 HR. He's going to struggle in stretches which will keep the average and OPS down from his potential. He should outperforming those averages late in the season. I agree that .250 would be a serious disappointment but .270 would not be. Anyone that thinks he's hitting .290 or above his rookie year is dreaming.

How is he going to hit over .270 with a 67% contact rate? His BABIP would have to be unsustainable. This is what I am talking about. Your contact rate directly reflects where your average should be.

 

[SilenceS]

Even with all the projections I have seen, I have not seen a projection over .266. His contact rate will dip when he comes into the majors and his K's will raise. People need to understand this.

 

[chibears55]

Even with all the projections I have seen, I have not seen a projection over .266. His contact rate will dip when he comes into the majors and his K's will raise. People need to understand this.

How can you predict or assume what his contact rate is going to be in first yr of Majors. .
Plus we have no idea of the balls he does put in play will fall in for a hit or not..

He could have 600 AB strike out 190 times put 410 balls in play and end up with 170 hits and be a .280 hitter...
That with a 68% contact rate..


I personally don't care for pre season projections on rookies or 2nd yr players, only because we have no idea how they will adjust and perform in the Majors...

Ive seen guys project low and become Roy candidates and guys projected high that ended up on bench or back in minors...

 

[chibears55]

@pgammo: John Malee says Jorge Soler hasn't swung at a pitch out of the strike zone all spring. Scary good. May be best of Cubs lot right now


This guy could be fun to watch... im predicting he hits that LF video board ALOT..