2015 Spring Training Thread

[chibears55]

Found it:

Jon Lester has a 2.77 career ERA when working with David Ross as his catcher.

That's Lester's best ERA with any of the four catchers with whom he has amassed at least 25 games, 100 innings pitched and 400 batters faced: He has a 3.24 ERA with Victor Martinez, 3.41 ERA with Jason Varitek and 4.20 ERA with Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

He gonna need to have a low ERA with now 2 automatic outs with him and Ross batting at bottom of lineup, instead of just the 1 ( ross) he had in AL...

Be interesting to see the runs support he gets in his starts...

 

[CSF77]

Looking like Baez should be starting season in Iowa...
Kid just doesn't look like he ready for the majors, and wondering iff he will ever be...

Olt: 11 SO in 26 AB
Baez: 11 SO in 30 AB

Olt has 4 HR's. Neither have really done much. But LaStella: .292/.370/.333 There is a clear need for a #2 hitter. .370 OBA is not killing the team.

Maddon has said that he like going R/L/R as much as he can.

Fowler
LaStella (Alcantara vs LH SP)
Castro
Rizzo
Soler
Montero
Olt
Coghlan

That is a option until they promote Bryant. Of the kids only Soler (.393/.414/.714) has proven he belongs at this point. Even Alcantara has put up a .250/.296/.333 That slash is not screaming start me.

Bryant is on another level: .435/.500/.1.304 IMO if Boras wants Bryant to start opening day he needs to work a starter contract where the Cubs keep that year of control vs lose it. IMO all Boras is doing is trying to get Bryant a year closer to payday with his rant. Always follow the $$$ If it was really all about winning then he should work a deal out. Note Theo will never say they are holding him back to gain a year because the union can file a grievance. That is why he said it is a developmental issue. Same with Rizzo being held back. Same case.

ON Ross starting: It seems like Montenero will get the lionshare and he worked a game with Lester. I see this as a non issue. When Bryant promotes the O should be able to sustain it. If we are depending on the catcher to sustain the O then there is something wrong with the way this team is being built.

 

[chibears55]

ON Ross starting: It seems like Montenero will get the lionshare and he worked a game with Lester. I see this as a non issue. When Bryant promotes the O should be able to sustain it. If we are depending on the catcher to sustain the O then there is something wrong with the way this team is being built.

Didn't say theyd be dependent on it, but if their getting no production at bottom of order it leaves alot of pressure on the rest to produce..
Also, 5-6 guys may not see to many good pitches to hit knowing they could get the lower 3 out easily. .


Could very easily be like samardzija with runs support..

 

[SilenceS]

Looking like Baez should be starting season in Iowa...
Kid just doesn't look like he ready for the majors, and wondering iff he will ever be...

His last at bat was bad. His 3 before were not. Even if he K'd twice still. He worked counts and didnt go nuts at the end. He probably will start in AAA but Patrick Mooney made a good point about why. Epstein made these moves to compete and would have a hard time justifying Baez getting his lumps out at the ML level to Cubs fans. Mooney made a specific point if Baez has a game that he K's three times. Twitter will explode and the media will be all over him and thats not something the Cubs want to do to him. He even specified him going to AAA does not mean the Cubs fell out of favor with him at all.

 

[SilenceS]

Bryant is going to struggle at some point. I would like people not to think he is going to be Mike Trout when he comes up. People forget Soler had a great two weeks and the rest was bad. These are young kids that ML pitchers will take advantage of their inexperience.

 

[brett05]

Bryant is going to struggle at some point. I would like people not to think he is going to be Mike Trout when he comes up. People forget Soler had a great two weeks and the rest was bad. These are young kids that ML pitchers will take advantage of their inexperience.

I want more Albert Pujols myself

 

[Parade_Rain]

Bryant is going to struggle at some point. I would like people not to think he is going to be Mike Trout when he comes up. People forget Soler had a great two weeks and the rest was bad. These are young kids that ML pitchers will take advantage of their inexperience.

The difference with Bryant is that his Dad played pro ball, too. He will be much more ready to make adjustments. He takes a solid plan to the plate.

 

[SilenceS]

The difference with Bryant is that his Dad played pro ball, too. He will be much more ready to make adjustments. He takes a solid plan to the plate.

HE will still struggle. He is not the best hitter I have ever seen and they all struggle. He only had a 67% contact rate last year in the minors. People need to slow down. Not saying you, but people seem to think this is a slam dunk. He is still very young. Lets take one step at a time.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Bryant is going to struggle at some point. I would like people not to think he is going to be Mike Trout when he comes up. People forget Soler had a great two weeks and the rest was bad. These are young kids that ML pitchers will take advantage of their inexperience.

Couldn't agree more and Trout struggled in his first call up but that was 123 AB, it didn't take him long to right the ship and in most seasons he would have been MVP in his first full year. Bryant is that kind of player but to expect those results is foolish, now if they come we'll gladly take them.

 

[CSF77]

Baez never really dominated AAA before his call up. I feel he was rushed. Bryant has never lost a step each promotion. There is little proof that he will go through a major transition.

 

[SilenceS]

Baez never really dominated AAA before his call up. I feel he was rushed. Bryant has never lost a step each promotion. There is little proof that he will go through a major transition.

67% contact rate says otherwise.

 

[SilenceS]

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-04-15-shandler-contact-rate_N.htm

Older article but it makes the point. His contact rate must come up because he wont get away with it in the majors like he did in the minors.

 

[SilenceS]

Just to put it in perspective.

Kris Bryant- 72% contact rate 2013, 67% contact rate in 2014, 69% contact rate in spring training. He is pretty consistent.

Javier Baez- 76% in 2012, 71% in 2013, 66% in 2014 AAA, 55% in majors 2014, 63% contact rate in spring training.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Captain Debbie Downer strikes again!

 

[beckdawg]

Couldn't agree more and Trout struggled in his first call up but that was 123 AB, it didn't take him long to right the ship and in most seasons he would have been MVP in his first full year. Bryant is that kind of player but to expect those results is foolish, now if they come we'll gladly take them.

Trout was also 19 compared to 23. Nothing is guaranteed with Bryant. Regardless, the thing with Bryant is even if he isn't making godly contact he's going to be a useful player so long as he walks at the same rate he has in the minors. Also having listened to Bryant talk about his approach he definitely seems more in tune with it than most young players. I posted an article a week or so ago about him talking about his approach which I found quite interesting. Given his size he realizes there's just certain areas he's not going to make great contact in. He's chosen instead to give up some stuff in those areas in order to make better contact in the areas he can. This frankly has been fairly evident in his numbers as his BABIP is absolutely ridiculous which in turn indicate his hitting a lot of line drives/homers(which we can see).

Whether or not this continues with better pitching remains to be seen. But it does remind me of another article I read on ESPN talking about two of the Yankee's to prospect and how A-Rod helped them. He basically told them that even in the majors pitchers can't throw three consecutive fastballs on the black so they shouldn't even worry about trying to cover everything.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Trout was also 19 compared to 23. Nothing is guaranteed with Bryant. Regardless, the thing with Bryant is even if he isn't making godly contact he's going to be a useful player so long as he walks at the same rate he has in the minors. Also having listened to Bryant talk about his approach he definitely seems more in tune with it than most young players. I posted an article a week or so ago about him talking about his approach which I found quite interesting. Given his size he realizes there's just certain areas he's not going to make great contact in. He's chosen instead to give up some stuff in those areas in order to make better contact in the areas he can. This frankly has been fairly evident in his numbers as his BABIP is absolutely ridiculous which in turn indicate his hitting a lot of line drives/homers(which we can see).

Whether or not this continues with better pitching remains to be seen. But it does remind me of another article I read on ESPN talking about two of the Yankee's to prospect and how A-Rod helped them. He basically told them that even in the majors pitchers can't throw three consecutive fastballs on the black so they shouldn't even worry about trying to cover everything.

Listen I love the kid, I'm just trying to keep expectations for Bryant and the Cubs in general low, for myself mostly I guess. I'm with SilenceS in that I know he's going to struggle some, of course I also think he'll be a RoY candidate. These are weird times for Cubs fans.

 

[beckdawg]

Listen I love the kid, I'm just trying to keep expectations for Bryant and the Cubs in general low, for myself mostly I guess. I'm with SilenceS in that I know he's going to struggle some, of course I also think he'll be a RoY candidate. These are weird times for Cubs fans.

It's entirely plausible that he wont struggle. Would I bet money on it? No but there's any number of prospects who never struggled. For example, Evan Longoria is a name that is brought up a lot around Bryant. He came up at 22 hit .272/.343/.531 with 27 homers on his way to a 5.5 fWAR season. Frankly we don't "know" anything about Bryant the player. That might seem a bit hypocritical coming from someone who has spent an inordinate amount of time discussing Baez's flaws. However, I would point out that my points on Baez have never been that Baez the individual can't succeed. They've always been that players like him haven't in the past. With regard to Bryant, the entire reason why projections love him so much is the exact opposite of Baez. Players like him have succeed in the past. That's why Streamer projects him to hit .260/.333/.498(3.3 fWAR) while zips suggests .256/.339/.500(4.2 fWAR) while the same services project Baez at .222/.272/.425(1.2 fWAR) and .233/.283/.447(2.2 fWAR).

You could argue the projections are factoring in a "struggle" for Bryant. It's obviously not in the traditional sense but we're talking about a player who's got a realistic shot at putting up .400 OBP seasons in his future. So, a .330 OBP while quite good for a rookie isn't that crazy. Personally, i'd imagine over a full season in his rookie year he'd be ~2.5 fWAR. That's what Ken Griffey Jr. put up as a 19 year old rookie followed by 5 straight seasons of 5+ fWAR(would have been around 10 had 1995 had more than 72 games for him. At 2.5 fWAR that'd easily be enough to win ROY. Anything more than that would be gravy.

 

[Bear Pride]

Looking like Baez should be starting season in Iowa...
Kid just doesn't look like he ready for the majors, and wondering iff he will ever be...

Yeah, 4 K's. :smh: It's disappointing to see, that's for sure. But hey, maybe a trip back to AAA might do him good and be a wakeup call for him. Maybe this opens the door for Russell, who knows? I do like how Maddon doesn't mess around, tho, and I don't think he will hesitate to send Javi down if need be.

 

[beckdawg]

Out of boredom I got an idea. Here's how BA's top 5 hitter prospects have performed since 1990 in their first season where they get more than 300 PAs

2014 - #1 Byron Buxton(no majors yet), #2 Xander Bogaerts(.240/.297/.362 0.4 fWAR, #3 Oscar Taveras(see below), #5 Javier Baez(not 300 PAs yet in a season)
2013 - #1 Jurickson Profar(.234/.308/.336 -0.4 fWAR), #3 Oscar Taveras(never made 300 PAs), #4 Wil Myers(.293/.354/.478 2.4 fWAR)
2012 - #1 Bryce Harpe(see below), #3 Mike Trout(see below)
2011 - #1 Bryce Harper(.270/.340/.477 4.4 fWAR), #2 Mike Trout(.326/.399/.564 10.1 fWAR), #3 Jesus Montero(see below), #4 Domonic Brown(.272/.324/.494 1.7 fWAR)
2010 - #1 Jason Heyward(see below), #3 Giancarlo Stanton(.259/.326/.507 2.3 fWAR), #4 Jesus Montero(.260/.298/.386 -0.4 fWAR)
2009 - #1 Matt Wieters(.288/.340/.412 1.3 fWAR), #3 Colby Rasmus(see below), #5 Jason Heyward(.277/.393/.456 4.6 fWAR)
2008 - #1 Jay Bruce(.254/.314/.453 0.7 fWAR), #2 Evan Longoria(.272/.343/.531 5.5 fWAR), #5 Colby Rasmus(.251/.307/.407 2.6 fWAR)
2007 - #2 Alex Gordon(.247/.314/.411 2 fWAR), #3 Delmon Young(see below)
2006 - #1 Delmon Young(see below), #2 Justin Upton(.250/.353/.463 0.6 fWAR), #3 Brandon Wood(never made 300 PAs), #4 Jeremy Hermida(.251/.332/.368 -0.8 fWAR), #5 Stephen Drew(.238/.313/.370 -0.7 fWAR)
2005 - #1 Joe Mauer(see below), #3 Delmon Young(see below), #4 Ian Stewart(.259/.349/.455 0.9 fWAR), #5 Joel Guzman(never made 300 PAs)
2004 - #1 Joe Mauer(see below), #2 B.J. Upton(.300/.386/.508 4.5 fWAR), #3 Delmon Young(.288/.316/.408 0.0 fWAR), #5 Rickie Weeks(.239/.333/.394 0.3 fWAR)
2003 - #1 Mark Teixeira(.259/.331/.480 1.9 fWAR), #2 Rocco Baldelli(.289/.326/.416 1.7 fWAR), #3 Jose Reyes(.273/.300/.386 1.8 fWAR), #4 Joe Mauer(.294/.372/.411 3.4 fWAR)
2002 - #3 Hank Blalock(.300/.350/.522 5 fWAR), #4 Sean Burroughs(.286/.352/.402 2.6 fWAR), #5 Carlos Pena(.242/.316/.448 0.2 fWAR)
2001 - #1 Josh Hamilton(.292/.368/.554 2.4 fWAR), #2 Corey Patterson(see below)
2000 - #2 Pat Burrell(.260/.359/.463 0.5 fWAR), #3 Corey Patterson(.253/.284/.392 0.2 fWAR), #4 Vernon Wells(.275/.305/.457 1.4 fWAR), #5 Nick Johnson(.243/.347/.402 0.8 fWAR)
1999 - #1 J.D. Drew(.242/.340/.424 2.5 fWAR), #3 Eric Chavez(.247/.333/.427 1.2 fWAR)
1998 - #1 Ben Grieve(.288/.386/.458 1.5 fWAR), #2 Paul Konerko(.294/.352/.511 1.9 fWAR), #3 Adrian Beltre(.275/.352/.428 3.4 fWAR), #5 Aramis Ramirez(.300/.350/.536 4.7 fWAR)
1997 - #1 Andruw Jones(see below), #2 Vladimir Guerrero(.302/.350/.483 1.5 fWAR), #5 Travis Lee(.269/.346/.429 1.0 fWAR)
1996 - #1 Andruw Jones(.231/.329/.416 3.7 fWAR), #3 Ruben Rivera(see below), #4 Darin Erstad(.299/.360/.466 2.8 fWAR)
1995 - #1 Alex Rodriguez(.358/.414/.631 9.6 fWAR), #2 Ruben Rivera(.195/.295/.406 1.4 fWAR), #3 Chipper Jones(see below), #4 Derek Jeter(.314/.370/.430 2.2 fWAR), #5 Brian Hunter(.302/.346/.396 1.5 fWAR)
1994 - #1 Cliff Floyd(see below), #2 Chipper Jones(see below), #3 Jeffrey Hammonds(.264/.323/.486 1.8 fWAR), #4 Alex Gonzalez(.243/.322/.398 0.3 fWAR), #5 Carlos Delgado(see below)
1993 - #1 Chipper Jones(see below), #3 Cliff Floyd(.281/.332/.398 0.4 fWAR), #4 Carlos Delgado(.270/.353/.490 1.6 fWAR), #5 Tim Salmon(.283/.382/.536 4.7 fWAR)
1992 - #4 Chipper Jones(.265/.353/.450 2.9 fWAR)
1991 - #2 Andujar Cedeno(.283/.346/.412 2.9 fWAR), #3 Ryan Klesko(.310/.396/.608 2.1 fWAR), #4 Jose Offerman(.260/.331/.333 0.6 fWAR)
1990 - #3 John Olerud(.265/.364/.430 1.4 fWAR), #4 Juan Gonzalez(.264/.321/.479 1.9 fWAR), #5 Sandy Alomar(.290/.326/.418 2.4 fWAR)

This is a bit skewed as Andujar Cedeno, Jeffery Hammonds, Ruben Rivera, Aramis Ramirez, Jose Reyes, B.J. Upton and Dom Brown had a few call ups though most of these guys were young upon being called up rather than college age players. By in large, the players typically hit for decent average/on base but often their power would come down some. There were a couple super star types right away. There were a few out right busts. Overall though it appears that most were average to above average.

For reference, I chose 300 PAs because that's typically more than your late season call ups. Bryant is probably more of a 400-500 PA type for 2015.

Edit: left out jeter by accident

 

[SilenceS]

Yet again, follow the contact rate. Longoria, 76% contact rate in minors. 72% contact rate in the majors his first season. I am not saying Kris Bryant wont be ok but Im seeing .280 plus predictions. Unless he changes his contact rate, you are looking more between .250 to .260. He was top 5 worst contact rate in the minors last season. It will only get worse in the majors. He is going to have to adjust because he will struggle at certain points.

Trout- 83% in A,A+, 76% in AA, 75% in first full year in majors, 77% in second season, 69% in third season. His average followed his contact rate. Mike Trout is a better all around player then Bryant and probably an all around better hitter when it is all said and done. This is what I am saying. People need to chill and let the kid come on his own cause I keep readin once he comes up the lineup will solidify. Dont do that to him. He is going to go through growing pains.