2016 position players

[willycat]

I mean that's the thing right, the flexibility? They so many options here they can have multiple talks with multiple teams. I think they will acquire that cost controlled starter they're looking for. Maybe even Hendricks goes in that deal, or another one following it, because the kid coming back has more upside. what if instead of spending $210 million on Price they spent something like $130 million on Jordan Zimmermann to plug in at #3 immediately. Then still make a trade for a Carrasco or someone like that. How would Arrieta, Lester, Zimmermann, Carasco, Hammel look to you? Maybe a bit righty heavy but nice right? What if all that cost you was Soler and a prospect plus the contract to Zimmermann? Or maybe you keep Hendricks and move Hammel. Either way. Then rather than dumping Castro, where they would almost certainly have to eat part of the deal, they keep him as a part of a platoon at 2B with either La Stella or Coghlan or both and your team looks like this: Infield Rizzo 1B, Castro/LaStella 2B, Russell SS, Baez 3B and an outfield of Bryant, Span, Schwarber with Montero/Ross/Schwarber at C? They probably need to get a righty OF to replace replace Denorfia but that lineup, with some serious flexibility I might add, looks awfually good both offensively and defensively. You still can see if Schwarber is a catcher, Bryant is an upgrade in RF defensively, Baez likewise at 3B. I'm predicting any of this but again they could go a lot of different directions here. I don't think Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber or Russell are going anywhere. I think it's highly unlikely that Baez moves unless someone bowls them over. That leaves a lot of other options.

Some very good thoughts but some questionable ones as well. Still think that the FO feels that Price is the guy they want and I totally agree. It's now the time to spend the new advertising cash and go all out for next season. Maybe Spam would fill the CF gap if Fowler leaves but not sure, with his injury history he is any better then Jackson would be. Also don't think that either Castro or LaStella are everyday players on a championship team, thus keep Baez there. Not at all sold on trading Soler, simply because he is young, has a reasonable contract and probably the only possible power guy not named Rizzo or Bryant. Sign Price or Zimmerman and trade Castro, Hammel and a minor leaguer, maybe Vogelbach for another SP.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think the only way they sign Price is if he really wants to come here and leave money on the table. Some say he could get $230 million, I don't see the Cubs going a dime about $190. I don't think that's impossible because unlike Scott Boras Price's agent Bo McKinnis does emphasise fit over absolute top dollar. He gets his clients a lot of money but it is said he tries to get more input from his clients on where they want to play. If that truly is case and he'll take that $190 or so I think he'll be a Cub, if not think Boston and LAD are the favorites, and remember Dombrowski is in an unusual position in that he's spent much of the last year negotiating with Price's agents. I think Boston is going make heads spin with all the deals they're going to be making.

 

[CSF77]

I think the only way they sign Price is if he really wants to come here and leave money on the table. Some say he could get $230 million, I don't see the Cubs going a dime about $190. I don't think that's impossible because unlike Scott Boras Price's agent Bo McKinnis does emphasise fit over absolute top dollar. He gets his clients a lot of money but it is said he tries to get more input from his clients on where they want to play. If that truly is case and he'll take that $190 or so I think he'll be a Cub, if not think Boston and LAD are the favorites, and remember Dombrowski is in an unusual position in that he's spent much of the last year negotiating with Price's agents. I think Boston is going make heads spin with all the deals they're going to be making.

Lets look at the realm of possibility:

2016 obligations: 82,010,000
ARB eldg:
Arrieta. Arb 2 and making 3,630,000. Largest all time pay hike was Buster Posey at 8 mil. 12 mil for a cy-young year. Yes I believe he will command that raise.
Wood Arb 2. Doubt they re up.
Wada. same thing.
Strop. arb 3. Have a arb 4 also. I expect him retained under 3 mil.
Coghlan retained. He will get a bump from this year. Expect around 5 mil.
Turner Arb1. Who knows here. His value has to be low.
Herrera Arb 3. Gone.
Rondon Arb1 2 mil would be expected.
Grimm Arb 1. 1-2 mil

medina Arb 1 gone.

We are looking at 24 mil in Arb cases. Again a real reason to tie up Arrieta. He could be at 18 mil on Arb3 at the pace he is going.

So that puts payroll at 106 mil. Add in Baez, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber. 2 mil aprox. Need a CF. Jackson would cost 8 mil. He is getting 7.7 right now so that is a legit 1 year offer.

116 mil.

Price will cost 30 mil per year. The question is amount of years. 30 right now. Will turn 31 in Aug next year so a realistic offer would be 6 years with a team option(s) after. So 6/180 is what he should get.

That puts the Cubs at 146 mil.

I do not see the Cubs going up to 146 mil at all.

So to make this happen they would have to shed pay roll. Real pain in the ass depending on other teams to take on debt......

That means Castro...Bye Bye. Trade for prospects. Save 7.8 mil

Payroll at 139 mil then.

Then pass on Jackson and platoon CF til Almora is ready. Saves another 8 mil. 131 mil.

About all they can do outside of trading Soler and his 3.667 mil. Not really worth it IMO just to shave a few dollars.

I think the reality is Arrieta's Arb case is put the Cubs on the outs unless Theo locks up Arrieta and back end's the deal. Say 8 mil year 1. Then signs Price and hits him with a year 1 of 20 mil. Then balloons up after Jackson and Hammel's deals are off of the books. They owe 62 mil in 2017.

I think it can be done but Price and Arrieta would have to structure their deals to cap out when the new TV deal is in place.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think you're wrong on where the Cubs budget is. It would not surprise me at all for them to go $150 mil or higher, but only if and when it makes sense. I don't think they'll sign Price but it's not because they don't have the money. First he's not going to get 6 years, he's going get 7. If the money goes up to the $230 level some think it will it's going to be 8 just to even things out. If they could get him for 6/$180 they'd sign him your math be damned. They can't, I'm fairly certain. Plus he's not their only option. They could trade for a guy with some years of control, which would keep the salary in line instead only using human assets, or they could sign a lesser guy if they think a guy they really want might be available at the deadline next year. They will add a starting pitcher this winter, they may add two. If they add one they could play the Jason Hammel card in that he has been good early in the season and then upgrade at the deadline. If they have already added a guy that would bump him from 4 to 5 as the race gets hot. Some think that's exactly what will happen. I'm inclined to this point of view myself but I see a ton of options. Revenues are up with estimates saying they will add $20 million to the payroll in and of themselves. The team is going to refinance their ownership in 2016 and the value of the team has more than doubled since the purchase. Even if the beancounters don't agree with the $2 billion value many are putting on them, even if they say $1.6 billion that puts a lot of cash in the coffers. I think you have too rigid an idea about how much money the Cubs have to spend. That doesn't mean that they will spend it, it just means that they can.

 

[CSF77]

I think you're wrong on where the Cubs budget is. It would not surprise me at all for them to go $150 mil or higher, but only if and when it makes sense. I don't think they'll sign Price but it's not because they don't have the money. First he's not going to get 6 years, he's going get 7. If the money goes up to the $230 level some think it will it's going to be 8 just to even things out. If they could get him for 6/$180 they'd sign him your math be damned. They can't, I'm fairly certain. Plus he's not their only option. They could trade for a guy with some years of control, which would keep the salary in line instead only using human assets, or they could sign a lesser guy if they think a guy they really want might be available at the deadline next year. They will add a starting pitcher this winter, they may add two. If they add one they could play the Jason Hammel card in that he has been good early in the season and then upgrade at the deadline. If they have already added a guy that would bump him from 4 to 5 as the race gets hot. Some think that's exactly what will happen. I'm inclined to this point of view myself but I see a ton of options. Revenues are up with estimates saying they will add $20 million to the payroll in and of themselves. The team is going to refinance their ownership in 2016 and the value of the team has more than doubled since the purchase. Even if the beancounters don't agree with the $2 billion value many are putting on them, even if they say $1.6 billion that puts a lot of cash in the coffers. I think you have too rigid an idea about how much money the Cubs have to spend. That doesn't mean that they will spend it, it just means that they can.

Hoyer said that sales went up by 21 mil over last year. That doesnt mean that it all will go that way.

You can't say they will spend x amount when they have not shown a willingness to do so.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Hoyer said that sales went up by 21 mil over last year. That doesnt mean that it all will go that way.

You can't say they will spend x amount when they have not shown a willingness to do so.

Except that every time they are asked they say will spend whatever they need to when they need to. I'm going by what they say and by what economics are saying in regards to the refinancing, upcoming TV deal, etc. You could very well be right. I just think it's more of a case that they're not going to spend foolishly, that's not the same as not spending at all. They were by far the high bidder for Lester, they made a really good offer to Russell Martin and were only beaten out by a foolish offer and the James Shields situation was similar. To me they haven't shown an unwillingness to spend but rather a bent towards fiscal responsibility that isn't the same thing. Again I don't know this I'm just reading the tea leaves as I see them and I know you're doing the same. As far as who is right only time will tell.

 

[CSF77]

Except that every time they are asked they say will spend whatever they need to when they need to. I'm going by what they say and by what economics are saying in regards to the refinancing, upcoming TV deal, etc. You could very well be right. I just think it's more of a case that they're not going to spend foolishly, that's not the same as not spending at all. They were by far the high bidder for Lester, they made a really good offer to Russell Martin and were only beaten out by a foolish offer and the James Shields situation was similar. To me they haven't shown an unwillingness to spend but rather a bent towards fiscal responsibility that isn't the same thing. Again I don't know this I'm just reading the tea leaves as I see them and I know you're doing the same. As far as who is right only time will tell.

Talk is cheap.

 

[Boobaby1]

Talk is cheap.

They laid out a bid for Sanchez, Tanaka and Lester, and were 2nd, 2nd, and 1st.

I am not sure how anyone can say they are cheap when they have eaten a lot of contracts. They also have a ton of rookies making the minimum, and E-Jax will be off the books in a year too. This all factors into their spending, and as TC said, they will be responsible.

Hell, I would take Jordan Zimmermann right now, and a trade for a potential TOR and go to spring training with that.

It has also been noted that when the Cubs need the money, that it will be there. Ricketts does not want to lose Theo, nor his staff. Doesn't mean that they have to go ape shit. They need some pitching and bullpen help, and a tweak of the roster here and there.

I can't think of a thing that this FO has said that they haven't done. They have been upfront from the word GO.

They said they would add a TOR which they did, and that another one would be there in 12-18 months which has been almost a year now.

So! Why should I think that they won't do what they have said?