2016's Around Major League Baseball

[TC in Mississippi]

I dont see the great depth in arms on the Rays

Archer (setting aside his early season troubles), Smyly, Moore, Cobb, Odorizzi and Snell with Brent Honeywell and Taylor Guerrieri probably each less than a season and a half behind Snell? How do you figure on no depth?

I would think that Archer and Snell are untouchable but Cobb, Moore, Smyly and Odorizzi could likely be had with the right package.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

While on the subject of Rays pitching I didn't see last night's game but I just saw some Chris Archer highlights as he finally got off the schneid. Dude had a nasty change up working. If that guy adds a plus change consistently he moves to the next level.

 

[brett05]

Yes but highly doubt the Cubs sign a long term deal with a Boras client ahead of Jake.

At this point, it would take something beyond drastic for the Cubs to not sign Arrieta long term IMO.

I agree with this. Where is it going to start? I believe the Cubs will try very hard for a low ball offer as they did with the arb year this time around. I don't think Jake settles so easily. I think the offer has to be $30 million a year for at least 5 years, no?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I agree with this. Where is it going to start? I believe the Cubs will try very hard for a low ball offer as they did with the arb year this time around. I don't think Jake settles so easily. I think the offer has to be $30 million a year for at least 5 years, no?

Yes. Has to be. You'd have to figure on buying out the last year of arb for say $25 mil plus the 5/$150 making it essentially 6/$175 which frankly may not be enough in light of the Greinke and Price contracts.

 

[CSF77]

Archer (setting aside his early season troubles), Smyly, Moore, Cobb, Odorizzi and Snell with Brent Honeywell and Taylor Guerrieri probably each less than a season and a half behind Snell? How do you figure on no depth?

I would think that Archer and Snell are untouchable but Cobb, Moore, Smyly and Odorizzi could likely be had with the right package.

The point was if they traded a starter who would come in and fill the spot. They are running 4 right now with the off days early season. Smiley got 1 and think a MR got the 2nd.

After Smiley there is a huge drop off in prospect talent for pitching.

That said I don't see any of the above a huge upgrade to Hendricks. Cubs would be better off holding the deck and giving Johnson a shot at the rotation opening. Now if it was Smiley or Archer then yes it would be a upgrade and they should persue it.

 

[CSF77]

I agree with this. Where is it going to start? I believe the Cubs will try very hard for a low ball offer as they did with the arb year this time around. I don't think Jake settles so easily. I think the offer has to be $30 million a year for at least 5 years, no?

He may take less per if he gets 7. If they want 5 it would end up in the 30 mil range per.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The point was if they traded a starter who would come in and fill the spot. They are running 4 right now with the off days early season. Smiley got 1 and think a MR got the 2nd.

After Smiley there is a huge drop off in prospect talent for pitching.

That said I don't see any of the above a huge upgrade to Hendricks. Cubs would be better off holding the deck and giving Johnson a shot at the rotation opening. Now if it was Smiley or Archer then yes it would be a upgrade and they should persue it.

Tampa can't hit a lick so who is going to start is likely going to be a moot point come August 1 as they'll be looking towards 2017 and getting a more rounded lineup. I'd kill for Blake Snell but they aren't trading him instead trying to lock him up to a long term deal. Does that mean they might consider trading Archer? I seriously doubt it as he's signed to the most favorable pitching contract this side of Chris Sale. Now Smyly is another story and if he starts living up to his potential he's going to start getting paid in arbitration in 2017. As far as a guy to take the spot that's about when Alex Cobb will come off the DL from TJ surgery. If I'm them he's probably the guy I look to deal once out of the race taking my chances with Archer and Snell at the top of that rotation going forward.

 

[beckdawg]

I mean theo has basically already said they wont spend money next offseason with the "we spent 2 offseasons in 1" talk. So, I'd assume that's pretty much off the table other than complementary parts.

As for pitching, pretty sure the cubs can target and get whomever they really want. I don't think this is a case where they just make a trade because they have to. So with that being said here's the things I'd be looking for. 1) a ground ball rate of higher than 45%. The cubs tend to favor guys who keep the ball on the ground. Specifically they seem to like sinker ball pitchers. That's not to say that's all they are after since Hammel doesn't really fit that mold but Hendricks, Lester and Arrieta are all strong in those regards. 2) low walk rates. The cubs seem to care less about overall k rate of pitchers and more about their walk rate. Some they fix since Arreita struggled there early in his career. Others have always had it(Hendricks). But by in large cubs pitchers don't walk people. They are presently 4th in walk rate among starters this year. They were 3rd last year.

 

[CSF77]

I mean theo has basically already said they wont spend money next offseason with the "we spent 2 offseasons in 1" talk. So, I'd assume that's pretty much off the table other than complementary parts.

As for pitching, pretty sure the cubs can target and get whomever they really want. I don't think this is a case where they just make a trade because they have to. So with that being said here's the things I'd be looking for. 1) a ground ball rate of higher than 45%. The cubs tend to favor guys who keep the ball on the ground. Specifically they seem to like sinker ball pitchers. That's not to say that's all they are after since Hammel doesn't really fit that mold but Hendricks, Lester and Arrieta are all strong in those regards. 2) low walk rates. The cubs seem to care less about overall k rate of pitchers and more about their walk rate. Some they fix since Arreita struggled there early in his career. Others have always had it(Hendricks). But by in large cubs pitchers don't walk people. They are presently 4th in walk rate among starters this year. They were 3rd last year.

I'm pretty sure they let Hammel and Fowler go and back fill with Almora and Johnson. After that they try to trade Montero and go with Conteras and Schwarber catching. This is why I thing Conteras gets 1-2 months on the team this year for the transition.

With that cost savings it should go towards Arrita's extension

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm pretty sure they let Hammel and Fowler go and back fill with Almora and Johnson. After that they try to trade Montero and go with Conteras and Schwarber catching. This is why I thing Conteras gets 1-2 months on the team this year for the transition.

With that cost savings it should go towards Arrita's extension

I'd slow down on that catching combo as we really have no idea if they'll ever let Schwarber catch again, but yeah Contreras will be part of the catching rotation next year. Also I don't think the Cubs can go with a BOR combo of Hendricks and Pierce Johnson. That's truly frightening. They're almost certain going to pick up a pitcher at the deadline. It's probably not going to be the TOR we've all thought but I do think but they will get an arm to bolster that rotation going into the playoffs. Maybe a rental. Also I wouldn't be shocked if they picked up Hammel's option for 2017. which is a bargain at today's prices.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm pretty sure they let Hammel and Fowler go and back fill with Almora and Johnson. After that they try to trade Montero and go with Conteras and Schwarber catching. This is why I thing Conteras gets 1-2 months on the team this year for the transition.

With that cost savings it should go towards Arrita's extension

Why would they try to trade Montero? He's not even that expensive and unless you're suggesting he falls off a cliff offensively there's no real need to do it in order to throw a rookie into the fire. Smarter play is to work Contreras in slowly as Ross' replacement.

 

[DanTown]

Why would they try to trade Montero? He's not even that expensive and unless you're suggesting he falls off a cliff offensively there's no real need to do it in order to throw a rookie into the fire. Smarter play is to work Contreras in slowly as Ross' replacement.

Montero makes 14 million next year; if trading Montero for a little salary back opens the books enough to get Jake to agree to a 6 year deal / 180 million deal next year, it's a deal the Cubs would have to seriously consider since Jake could fetch a good 40 million more on the open market but 180 is "life settling money" and gives him protection in staying.

 

[CSF77]

Why would they try to trade Montero? He's not even that expensive and unless you're suggesting he falls off a cliff offensively there's no real need to do it in order to throw a rookie into the fire. Smarter play is to work Contreras in slowly as Ross' replacement.

Dan pretty much answered it. It depends on Contreras. Like I said don't be surprised if he gets some time in this year. His bat alone holds value but his D is plus also.

Now it would be safe to sit on Montero for a year but I'm getting the feeling that Contreras could become a all star level talent and those types you play regardless.

 

[CSF77]

I'd slow down on that catching combo as we really have no idea if they'll ever let Schwarber catch again, but yeah Contreras will be part of the catching rotation next year. Also I don't think the Cubs can go with a BOR combo of Hendricks and Pierce Johnson. That's truly frightening. They're almost certain going to pick up a pitcher at the deadline. It's probably not going to be the TOR we've all thought but I do think but they will get an arm to bolster that rotation going into the playoffs. Maybe a rental. Also I wouldn't be shocked if they picked up Hammel's option for 2017. which is a bargain at today's prices.

Well Beck has pretty much banged the gong on Hendricks. He is pretty much a league #4 right now. If he regresses then they would have to look into another option by the dead line. They have the minor league talent to pull it off.

Doubt they pull a deal with Hammel. Not with Jake's situation looming

 

[beckdawg]

Montero makes 14 million next year; if trading Montero for a little salary back opens the books enough to get Jake to agree to a 6 year deal / 180 million deal next year, it's a deal the Cubs would have to seriously consider since Jake could fetch a good 40 million more on the open market but 180 is "life settling money" and gives him protection in staying.

If Montero is the difference between signing Arrieta and not then the cubs have way over spent their ability to earn and are already totally fucked. More importantly, Montero's money isn't even on the books when Arrieta will be a FA and with the way teams structure contracts any deal with Arrieta would be cheaper for the couple years of arbitration he has left(believe 2). So I see 0 way Montero impacts signing Arrieta.

 

[DanTown]

If Montero is the difference between signing Arrieta and not then the cubs have way over spent their ability to earn and are already totally fucked. More importantly, Montero's money isn't even on the books when Arrieta will be a FA and with the way teams structure contracts any deal with Arrieta would be cheaper for the couple years of arbitration he has left(believe 2). So I see 0 way Montero impacts signing Arrieta.

The question is can they afford to give Jake 30 million next year if Montero is here. It doesn't behoove the Cubs to sign him to 6/180 if they can't pay him 30 million of it next year.

 

[brett05]

The question is can they afford to give Jake 30 million next year if Montero is here. It doesn't behoove the Cubs to sign him to 6/180 if they can't pay him 30 million of it next year.

I think today Jake is 6/180. He pitches this year like he did last year and he shoots up quite a bit more than that in the offseason.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The White Sox have 16 wins on April 28th. That's impressive. I picked them for a Wild Card and it looks like I may not be wrong.

 

[brett05]

oh and...

Starlin Castro

 

[SilenceS]

Dee Gordon just got suspended 80 games for PED's