2018 Hug watch thread..

[beckdawg]

Of course he gonna be rusty and ineffective, that pretty much my whole point...

Baseless speculation. I could cite literally dozens of pitchers who've returned just as good as they were prior to injury from TJS immediately upon returning. As for this building his arm up crap you realize he's been throwing for over a month now right? Pitchers don't start throwing in spring training until feb and by march they are ready for spring training action and by april are playing real games. He started throwing in July, will likely start a rehab assigning in the next few days assuming nothing went wrong with his simulated game today and by September could be in the majors. That's literally the same sort of timeline every pitcher uses to get ready for a season.

Honestly I don't even know what your point in this is. It seems to be to write off his season this year for reasons beyond me. If we were to hypothetically say you're right then why are they even bothering talking about him going to a rehab assignment in the next week or so. They could just as easily shut him down for the rest of the year to prep for 2019 like they did with Alzolay. But they didn't which means they think he can contribute this season potentially. I mean for **** sake I literally cited the cubs pitching coach saying this. So, that argument is completely invalidated by the cubs own staff.

As for how well he performs if and when he does come back, why don't you just let the results speak for themselves? Why are you immediately assuming he's going to be bad? You're not even saying temper expectations. You're unequivocally saying he's going to be bad. You don't know that anymore than you knew that Heyward was going to be bad in March/April.

My point here isn't to say that Smyly is a 100% lock to be a useful contributor not only in September but also in the playoffs. My point is that is a possibility that exists. The biggest gripe I have with you isn't that you think it's unlikely. It's that you think it's impossible. If you were instead saying temper expectations fine. That's a reasonable thing to say. In fact, I've literally said multiple times if he's healthy and playing in September let the results speak for themselves. But you aren't saying that.

 

[beckdawg]

Now as I said match up dictates also. Say they match up vs team A round 1 and they have 1-2 legit left handed threats. You really don't need 3 lefties then. So at that point you take the top 2 performers. Say Smyly in Sept puts up a 1.31 ERA and is basically uninhabitable. Well guess what he is on the roster and most likely ahead of Wilson and Montgomery.

I see it as Wilson has the short stick going in. No control next year so he has to beat the rest to be in. Smyly is performance based. Tie really depends on his arm. If they feel that that is enough then they will pull the plug. If he is the best option then that is what he is.

Think you're missing the point here. You don't "need 3 lefties." If Smyly is performing well you have him and likely wilson as your two specialists vs LH batters. That then frees Monty of having to be in that role. We know that in the playoffs hooks come quick. Maddon isn't afraid to yank a guy in the 5th. So, you could be talking about a bullpen regularly covering 4 innings. Obviously you have Morrow for the 9th. I don't see them going Davis/Chapman with him over multiple innings given he's a bit fragile. But I'm not sure they need to. If monty is no longer in that loogy role you can bring him in during the 5th and 6th to get 4-5 outs as needed to get you to the 7th. In the 7th, you can use Strop/Cishek who are your two best pitchers vs RH batters and you can use Wilson/Smyly as your two best lefties. That leaves you Edwards for the 8th and Morrow in the 9th as mentioned.

Obviously that isn't exactly how things will play out game to game but it gives you an idea of how they can approach things. Monty being a multiple inning bridge guy to the back end of the bullpen is far more valuable than him being a loogy. And they don't really have great options for that role. They've sorta used Cishek in it this year but given him and strop are your two best guys vs RH batters you'd likely prefer to save them

 

[chibears55]

Baseless speculation. I could cite literally dozens of pitchers who've returned just as good as they were prior to injury from TJS immediately upon returning. As for this building his arm up crap you realize he's been throwing for over a month now right? Pitchers don't start throwing in spring training until feb and by march they are ready for spring training action and by april are playing real games. He started throwing in July, will likely start a rehab assigning in the next few days assuming nothing went wrong with his simulated game today and by September could be in the majors. That's literally the same sort of timeline every pitcher uses to get ready for a season.

Honestly I don't even know what your point in this is. It seems to be to write off his season this year for reasons beyond me. If we were to hypothetically say you're right then why are they even bothering talking about him going to a rehab assignment in the next week or so. They could just as easily shut him down for the rest of the year to prep for 2019 like they did with Alzolay. But they didn't which means they think he can contribute this season potentially. I mean for **** sake I literally cited the cubs pitching coach saying this. So, that argument is completely invalidated by the cubs own staff.

As for how well he performs if and when he does come back, why don't you just let the results speak for themselves? Why are you immediately assuming he's going to be bad? You're not even saying temper expectations. You're unequivocally saying he's going to be bad. You don't know that anymore than you knew that Heyward was going to be bad in March/April.

My point here isn't to say that Smyly is a 100% lock to be a useful contributor not only in September but also in the playoffs. My point is that is a possibility that exists. The biggest gripe I have with you isn't that you think it's unlikely. It's that you think it's impossible. If you were instead saying temper expectations fine. That's a reasonable thing to say. In fact, I've literally said multiple times if he's healthy and playing in September let the results speak for themselves. But you aren't saying that.

I posted who i felt were the 9 guys in the pen , someone suggested Smyley would be 1 of the 9 and i simply disagreed giving my reason...

Then i got bombarded as usual and gave my responses back...

That basically what happened here
LMAO


It pretty simple where we disagree..

I just dont think he'll be ready and or effective enough for the postseason ..
A couple of you think he will

We can all move on now til our bext disagreement..lol

We'll see what happens, we all obviously want the best players playing in October



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[CSF77]

Think you're missing the point here. You don't "need 3 lefties." If Smyly is performing well you have him and likely wilson as your two specialists vs LH batters. That then frees Monty of having to be in that role. We know that in the playoffs hooks come quick. Maddon isn't afraid to yank a guy in the 5th. So, you could be talking about a bullpen regularly covering 4 innings. Obviously you have Morrow for the 9th. I don't see them going Davis/Chapman with him over multiple innings given he's a bit fragile. But I'm not sure they need to. If monty is no longer in that loogy role you can bring him in during the 5th and 6th to get 4-5 outs as needed to get you to the 7th. In the 7th, you can use Strop/Cishek who are your two best pitchers vs RH batters and you can use Wilson/Smyly as your two best lefties. That leaves you Edwards for the 8th and Morrow in the 9th as mentioned.

Obviously that isn't exactly how things will play out game to game but it gives you an idea of how they can approach things. Monty being a multiple inning bridge guy to the back end of the bullpen is far more valuable than him being a loogy. And they don't really have great options for that role. They've sorta used Cishek in it this year but given him and strop are your two best guys vs RH batters you'd likely prefer to save them

Well as far as the pen goes I see it as

9th Morrow
8th Kintler

6-7 is where you see flux. That is where you want depth. This is where Cishek and Strop belong.

After that you want 2 2 arm guys. That would be Monty and Chavez.

So these are your basic set up.

8-9 I believe is set.

The 2 inning guys I believe are Montgomery and Chavez. Now depending on who gets bumped from the rotation could add 1 guy here. Chatwood is also a long shot here also.

The short inning guys are Cishek, Wilson, Strop, Edwards.

We don’t know where Smyly ends up. They were talking extending him in Aug. most likely starting games with a set pitch count then a piggyback follows. His pitch count should steadily build each start. Now this really means nothing as far as his role on returning. It is more about building arm strength. We don’t know what they end up doing.

 

[anotheridiot]

I just do not get why some people here think Smyly is the next coming of Kershaw. He is a .500 career pitcher, 85 starts, basically a 3.5:1 K to BB guy who was 7-12 with an era around 5 for Tampa last year. There is no doubt in anyones mind if healthy, Monty is the go to lefty in the pen. They will stack righties against our lefty starters and have lefties on the bench, so the flipping of sides is to deplete bench players which is also why we need 13 or 14 position players on the roster. Numbers against Righties will be the deciding factor.

 

[CSF77]

I just do not get why some people here think Smyly is the next coming of Kershaw. He is a .500 career pitcher, 85 starts, basically a 3.5:1 K to BB guy who was 7-12 with an era around 5 for Tampa last year. There is no doubt in anyones mind if healthy, Monty is the go to lefty in the pen. They will stack righties against our lefty starters and have lefties on the bench, so the flipping of sides is to deplete bench players which is also why we need 13 or 14 position players on the roster. Numbers against Righties will be the deciding factor.

Smyly is better than Montgomery.

Theo signed Smyly to start in 2019. He has avoided Montgomery like the plague up until this year.

Again results over rule bias here. But going in Smyly has dominated lefties so he is as close as you get to a loogy

But with 20 mil on Hamels you have to pull it.

If they do that and Smyly is in the rotation plans then it opens up a potential trade chip in Q. I would if I Have Hamels, Lester, Yu, Smyly, Hendricks. At that point I’m thinking of flipping Montgomery and Q to reload my farm for the next wave of talent.

 

[CSF77]

• Yu Darvish, who hasn't started since late May, was scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Saturday. He's been sidelined because of right triceps tendinitis.

• Brandon Morrow, who played catch on Thursday for the first time since July 18, reported no soreness in his right arm on Friday. He's on the DL with right biceps inflammation.

• Drew Smyly, who threw two innings in a sim game on Thursday, said he'll know on Saturday whether he's ready to begin a Minor League rehab assignment. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow that forced him to miss all of 2017.

 

[chibears55]

• Yu Darvish, who hasn't started since late May, was scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Saturday. He's been sidelined because of right triceps tendinitis.

• Brandon Morrow, who played catch on Thursday for the first time since July 18, reported no soreness in his right arm on Friday. He's on the DL with right biceps inflammation.

• Drew Smyly, who threw two innings in a sim game on Thursday, said he'll know on Saturday whether he's ready to begin a Minor League rehab assignment. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery on his left elbow that forced him to miss all of 2017.

You forgot Bryant who said there still soreness in his shoulder and their shutting him down for now..

Return unknown



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[chibears55]

Smyly is better than Montgomery.

Based on What ?
His stats from 2015 and beyond?
He sucked in 2016 and didnt pitch at all in 2017 and 2018

Im not saying Monty has been great as a starter but youre comparing a guy who hasn't pitched since 2016 and hasn't pitched good since 2015 and saying he better then someone whose been ok as a starter this year and has been pretty good as a reliever overall..

That a pretty bold statement there on an unknown of what were gonna see out of Smyley after 2 years of inactivity...
Just saying

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[Adipost]

Based on What ?
His stats from 2015 and beyond?
He sucked in 2016 and didnt pitch at all in 2017 and 2018

Im not saying Monty has been great as a starter but youre comparing a guy who hasn't pitched since 2016 and hasn't pitched good since 2015 and saying he better then someone whose been ok as a starter this year and has been pretty good as a reliever overall..

That a pretty bold statement there on an unknown of what were gonna see out of Smyley after 2 years of inactivity...
Just saying

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:yep:

 

[CSF77]

You forgot Bryant who said there still soreness in his shoulder and their shutting him down for now..

Return unknown



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Rather they keep him shut down and get to 100%. It seems is wears down with time so might make more sense to time it to peak in Oct. limit him in Sept.

Bote makes it easier right now but even then you are fine with Baez at 3B and Zo at 2B.

 

[CSF77]

Smyly
2015: 2.70 BB/9 10.40 SO/9
2016: 2.52 BB/9 8.57 SO/9

If you look beyond the W/L and ERA you see a guy that has solid ratios going in. The part that bothers me is his hit ratio is a bit high which makes sense with a lower walk rate. 7.83/8.93

In a focused role such as a Loogy IDK honestly. His vs L/R seem pretty neutral.

So looking at a Smyly from the past yes he is better and that is based off of BB:SO numbers. But he is not high tier based off of his hit ratio. WHIP career wise 1.20 so respectable.

 

[anotheridiot]

So................. St Louis gets Ross for nothing and the Brewers got Lyles for the same price. I guess the cubs could have traded for Ross (poor mans Archer) for some international dollars if they really wanted him.

Waiver claims are still based on records, right? So its not that either team beat out the cubs for these guys, they just did not make it to the first place team right?

Either way, sure seems like SanDiego had their meeting and they drew the line on who wants to be there and play hard and its working so far.

 

[CSF77]

So................. St Louis gets Ross for nothing and the Brewers got Lyles for the same price. I guess the cubs could have traded for Ross (poor mans Archer) for some international dollars if they really wanted him.

Waiver claims are still based on records, right? So its not that either team beat out the cubs for these guys, they just did not make it to the first place team right?

Either way, sure seems like SanDiego had their meeting and they drew the line on who wants to be there and play hard and its working so far.

Pretty sure that they are good right now. Ross is not a upgrade to Montgomery and Darvish looks like he will return. Hamels was the prize

 

[anotheridiot]

Pretty sure that they are good right now. Ross is not a upgrade to Montgomery and Darvish looks like he will return. Hamels was the prize

I am not complaining, just trying to verify its based on records. Just seeing alot of comments about the Padres helping our central competition for nothing by people who are probably hanging on the bandwagon.

I mean, I know, there is simply no room right now, its just waiting for September to get Farrell, Bass and the rest of the bus boys up here to pick our best pen for the playoffs.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I am not complaining, just trying to verify its based on records. Just seeing alot of comments about the Padres helping our central competition for nothing by people who are probably hanging on the bandwagon.

I mean, I know, there is simply no room right now, its just waiting for September to get Farrell, Bass and the rest of the bus boys up here to pick our best pen for the playoffs.

Does Ross actually improve the cardinals? They probably have better options already internally. And idk how much Lyles improves Milwaukee either

 

[chibears55]

Remember when i said it wouldn't surprise me if cubs looked to add a guy to play 3rd..

https://www.bleachernation.com/2018...the-cubs-but-is-that-really-a-plausible-move/

I agree they dont really need to and rhis is a slim possibility, but it something for them to consider

Why not add another big bat if they can

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[anotheridiot]

I dont care who it is, the cubs get tied to any player being discussed.

 

[chibears55]

I dont care who it is, the cubs get tied to any player being discussed.

Pretty much but Beltre says he would ok a deal to the cubs..

Like i said it a slim possibility and theo may not even be interested but i wouldn't be against such move...

Good bat off the bench and get games against LHers where they can put Bryant in OF and Beltre at 3rd...

Bote doing great now but just wonder how much confidence management will have in him come playoff time and would they prefer a good veteran over him then...

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[anotheridiot]

Pretty much but Beltre says he would ok a deal to the cubs..

Like i said it a slim possibility and theo may not even be interested but i wouldn't be against such move...

Good bat off the bench and get games against LHers where they can put Bryant in OF and Beltre at 3rd...

Bote doing great now but just wonder how much confidence management will have in him come playoff time and would they prefer a good veteran over him then...

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You will not keep Beltre happy by being a bat on a bench. The reason he says yes is because there are two teams with a question mark at third who are playoff bound. You put him on a bench and all the hippie in Joe will not keep him happy.