2018 Hug watch thread..

[CSF77]

I look at it as if there is a dog fight for him it is because they are scared of the Cubs right now.

All CHC needs to do is go after Hand IMO. That will send waves.

 

[chibears55]

Starting to think there more to Darvish injury then their letting on..

If he not ready to go after the Cardinals series to at least get set for rehab starts, then I have to think a deal for a SP has to be in the making..
Just dont see management rolling the dice on Monty and Chatwood every 4 to 5 days to help lighten the load of the other 3

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[CSF77]

Starting to think there more to Darvish injury then their letting on..

If he not ready to go after the Cardinals series to at least get set for rehab starts, then I have to think a deal for a SP has to be in the making..
Just dont see management rolling the dice on Monty and Chatwood every 4 to 5 days to help lighten the load of the other 3

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I agree. I’m pretty sure that Hand is their prime target though. The control aligns with Morrow and turns the Cubs pen into the league best. I’ve been saying Hand and Ross for a while now. Front lining Happ and Bote with 2 pitchers would push it IMO.

looking at the system right now a arm that is ready is Clifton. You would figure that they would want a arm in return that can pitch today. Clifton honestly is better than Mills or Underwood.

Now to push it further I believe it would take Keegan. Cubs are not going to give away Little or Lange. Keegan honestly looks like a innings absorber at the majors with 4 quality pitches. He is about a year out right now.

 

[chibears55]

Sounds like Manny going to the Dodgers..
Gonna be a tough offense come October, hope the cubs get some pitching help to offset that

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[beckdawg]

Machado going to LA is going to be interesting from a luxury tax stand point. Machado is making 16 mil this year and LA is 15.5 mil under the luxury tax. However, it's more like 8 going onto their books but then again that doesn't include bonuses players are likely to incur. So, there's not a ton of wiggle room there. It's also interesting because to an extent this is a rental. Granted they have the money to potentially bring him back but the reason this interests me is because typically when you part with big time prospects you get controllable assets back. Yusniel Diaz is a pretty decent prospect to be included in a rental. And they gave away calhoun last year to rent Darvish.

LA is going to be still fairly loaded even after this but the more they chip away at that prospect pool without getting long term assets back the better given they can no longer buy talented prospects in the same manner as they used to in IFA.

 

[anotheridiot]

Machado going to LA is going to be interesting from a luxury tax stand point. Machado is making 16 mil this year and LA is 15.5 mil under the luxury tax. However, it's more like 8 going onto their books but then again that doesn't include bonuses players are likely to incur. So, there's not a ton of wiggle room there. It's also interesting because to an extent this is a rental. Granted they have the money to potentially bring him back but the reason this interests me is because typically when you part with big time prospects you get controllable assets back. Yusniel Diaz is a pretty decent prospect to be included in a rental. And they gave away calhoun last year to rent Darvish.

LA is going to be still fairly loaded even after this but the more they chip away at that prospect pool without getting long term assets back the better given they can no longer buy talented prospects in the same manner as they used to in IFA.

How much money is the world series title worth? Keep telling me it was worth Gleybor Torres. You are talking about a team that had a team payroll of 250 million a year or two ago BEFORE even worrying about the tax bill with a team that sells out 50,000 seats for 81 plus games. But I also heard a guy on local radio claim that Britton may also have been included in the deal which is why this is taking so long to announce and a guy like Logan Forsythe might be going back to offset some salary.

 

[beckdawg]

How much money is the world series title worth? Keep telling me it was worth Gleybor Torres. You are talking about a team that had a team payroll of 250 million a year or two ago BEFORE even worrying about the tax bill with a team that sells out 50,000 seats for 81 plus games. But I also heard a guy on local radio claim that Britton may also have been included in the deal which is why this is taking so long to announce and a guy like Logan Forsythe might be going back to offset some salary.

I don't think you understand the point I was making. i'm not saying the trade for Machado if it were to push them over the luxury tax would be "bad" for LA this year. I'm saying it's interesting because it makes what they do this fall in FA much harder. If they are trading for Machado obviously the thought process is you want to keep him. But they would pay a 50% penalty on top of the contract they give him. In other words, if he's getting $30 mil this offseason they are actually paying him $45 mil/year. And it's not just him they have to worry about. Kershaw also likely opts out.

You might say what's $40+ mil in excess tax to the Dodgers but I'd counter with the fact it's money they can't spend else where. Not to mention the fact it pushes them closer to the penalty aspect of the new CBA which is legitimately severe now.

 

[chibears55]

Its official...
Machado to Dodgers for 5 prospects

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1019722546097385474?s=19

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[beckdawg]

Pretty light return. Diaz and maybe Kremer are the only guys who might be something IMO. Valera is kind of useful as a bench MI but he's 26 already. Bannon has raked in the low minors but he's already 22 and is still only in A+ not to mention being undersized. Pop is a reliever. I can see liking this trade if you believe in Kremer's stats. He has 256 K's in 197.2 IP in the minors which is a 11.66 k/9. In that time he had 70 walks(3.19 bb/9). Those are pretty fantastic numbers. Well the walk rate is kinda average but with that high a k rate you take it.

The more interesting aspect is apparently baltimore isn't eating any money and isn't trading away IFA money(they never use their IFA money for some stupid reason). That being said, I feel like they could have got more in the offseason.

 

[chibears55]

Pretty light return. Diaz and maybe Kremer are the only guys who might be something IMO. Valera is kind of useful as a bench MI but he's 26 already. Bannon has raked in the low minors but he's already 22 and is still only in A+ not to mention being undersized. Pop is a reliever. I can see liking this trade if you believe in Kremer's stats. He has 256 K's in 197.2 IP in the minors which is a 11.66 k/9. In that time he had 70 walks(3.19 bb/9). Those are pretty fantastic numbers. Well the walk rate is kinda average but with that high a k rate you take it.

The more interesting aspect is apparently baltimore isn't eating any money and isn't trading away IFA money(they never use their IFA money for some stupid reason). That being said, I feel like they could have got more in the offseason.

Tells us now that there never was any real offer of Russell for Machado, no way Orioles didn't jump at that over what they got in return from Dodgers..

I have to think the cubs are going to strengthen their pitching for the postseason..

Dodgers Braves offense pretty good,
Get pass them then they face power houses from AL..

I know it looking way ahead but that pretty much what you do at this time before the deadline ends..
You make your team stronger if you can


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[CSF77]

What is the feel on Nathan Eovaldi? Just back from injury and can't expect a huge return. Seems the Cubs are scouting him now.

 

[beckdawg]

What is the feel on Nathan Eovaldi? Just back from injury and can't expect a huge return. Seems the Cubs are scouting him now.

I don't think he's more than a middling starter. He's 28 and never going to be better than this. And thus far this year he has a 4.59/4.46 ERA/FIP. He's simply a depth starter at best.

 

[CSF77]

Tells us now that there never was any real offer of Russell for Machado, no way Orioles didn't jump at that over what they got in return from Dodgers..

I have to think the cubs are going to strengthen their pitching for the postseason..

Dodgers Braves offense pretty good,
Get pass them then they face power houses from AL..

I know it looking way ahead but that pretty much what you do at this time before the deadline ends..
You make your team stronger if you can


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Cubs lead the NL with 476 runs. 9 more than the Rockies with 3 less games played.
Dodgers are at 453. Well short with 3 games more played.

ERA: Dodgers and Cubs are 1-2 in the NL. with in .07.

I just don't see Manny closing the gap honest right now by himself. It would have to be a jump start effect.

I do like Muncy and Kemp. Turner sucks this year. Bellenger is in a sophomore slump. Not the same guy.

So it might be a reach to say that this team is as good as last year with Manny. Push is realistic.

Pitching:
Wood had a career year last year. He is back to his career avg right now.
Maeda looks about the same. #4 SP
Stripling is up in his innings. 100 was his previous high and he is at 95. You can expect going back to the pen soon.
Hill: I think he has run his course. Something to write about after retirement on a nice career ending stint. 4.55 ERA 1.37 WHIP well over his 5 year run hovering 1.0

Over all they lack a #2 SP behind Shaw. Hill really looks done and Wood and Maeda are 3-4 quality. This puts the Cubs in advantage.

They have been using Stripling as that #2 guy but I just don't see them riding his arm like that this year. Next year is far more likely.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think he's more than a middling starter. He's 28 and never going to be better than this. And thus far this year he has a 4.59/4.46 ERA/FIP. He's simply a depth starter at best.

IDK. .98 WHIP.

51 IP but 42 hits so they really are not hitting him. 8 BB add to it 45 SO. From what I see he is actually pretty good. The 4.59 End result looks more luck with a .222 BAA. and yes 10 HR's.

 

[beckdawg]

IDK. .98 WHIP.

51 IP but 42 hits so they really are not hitting him. 8 BB add to it 45 SO. From what I see he is actually pretty good. The 4.59 End result looks more luck with a .222 BAA. and yes 10 HR's.

Sample size. His infield fly ball rate is 17.0%. Career rate is 8.3%. Never had a higher rate than 9.1%. That's not sustainable.

 

[CSF77]

From what I'm looking at in zone for the most part. But have left some over too much leading to 10 HR's given up. But 26 runs. So at least 1/2 of his damage were via the HR. But his BB's have limited the big inning.

IDK I would take a chance just due to him not walking guys. There is risk with the HR rate but you have a good shot that it will be a solo shot as he doesn't give away bases like Chatwood.

 

[CSF77]

Sample size. His infield fly ball rate is 17.0%. Career rate is 8.3%. Never had a higher rate than 9.1%. That's not sustainable.

Well his 1.76 HR/9 is pretty unsustainable also. He has hovered around .70 pre injury.

It is his first year back and it should take a while to normalize. His career is around 2.81 BB/9 and 6.65 SO/9 So back end guy. But upgrade to Chatwood as the 5.

About all I feel about him. I wouldn't give anything of quality in return. Thinking Vosler and Tseng to be honest.

 

[CSF77]

But from what Theo said: No splash but adding Depth.

I take that as no big names but minor names.

What they have:

Lester: 11-2 2.58 1.19 WHIP
Hendricks: 6-8 3.92 1.20 WHIP
Quintana: 8-6 1.37 WHIP

Those 3 are set.

Pen:

Morrow: 1.47 ERA 1.08 WHIP
Cishek: 1.88 ERA 1.02 WHIP

Those 2 are your top guys

Wilson: 2.77 ERA 1.37 WHIP
Strop: 2.52 ERA 1.07 WHIP
Edwards: 2.89 ERA 1.18 WHIP

2nd tier arms

Excess:

Rosario: 1.95 ERA 1.27 WHIP
Duesing: 6.59 ERA 1.83 WHIP

Now just looking as the surface they need a lefty in the pen pretty bad. I don't see them just sitting on Smyly here honestly. If he was doing live in the minors that would be another story.

So they need a pen lefty. period. Just looking at the numbers they have Roserio and Wilson and both walk guys more than they should.

SP wise Hendricks has pitched as a #4. Fact is they can't bring in a #2. So they have to approach it from the back end and remove either Chatwood or Montgomery.+

My issue with Montgomery lies in his SO rate. 5.68 which is his lowest out put. And I really believe it has to do with pitching to contact to get deeper into games. But it is a bit much and is catching up with him recently.

Chatwood strikes guys out. That is not his problem. The problem is he should be in Iowa right now figuring it out vs causing nightmares to the faithful.

All said and done they need 2 guys I believe. If Yu comes back and Smyly comes up it fixes every thing but that never happens. So they need to address with medium impact.

If you think about it they have to upgrade Duesing and Chatwood. Both go to AAA or wavers...W/E. Let them fight for the right to be in the major leagues again. If Yu returns then Montgomery hits the pen. He is fringe anyways. At that point you bump the next low man off. Smyly IMO is a Sept guy and a non issue.

 

[beckdawg]

Well his 1.76 HR/9 is pretty unsustainable also.

Not really. The season before he got injured he threw 124.2 innings with a 1.66 hr/9. That's not a small sample size. More to the point, the reason he is giving more HR's up is that his hard hit rate has skyrocketed. It was roughly 30% prior to 2016. The past 2 seasons he's pitched in it was 33.9% and 34.9% this year.

 

[CSF77]

Not really. The season before he got injured he threw 124.2 innings with a 1.66 hr/9. That's not a small sample size. More to the point, the reason he is giving more HR's up is that his hard hit rate has skyrocketed. It was roughly 30% prior to 2016. The past 2 seasons he's pitched in it was 33.9% and 34.9% this year.

Is he a upgrade to Chatwood?