2018 Hug watch thread..

[Diehardfan]

I took what Theo said and Mooney’s view point as Theo is not going to cast his best chip on Britton.

I believe that it was speculated that a 3 player return of mid tier quality gets it done though.

Cubs have plenty of that type that they can toss out.

Britton is a hot name but if you look at his raw. 10 BB in 15 IP. That is about the same thing we are getting out of Wilson and we lose both.

So in view of that what is his value. That is what I believe Theo is looking at and not getting caught up into the tidal wave.

Pitching is a lot simpler than many make it out to be. You don't need to chase down a "name", you don't need to chase down a high profile player that strikes everyone out. You just need a guy that doesn't walk people and allows his defense to work for him. Perfect example is this guy Bass. You watch him and he doesn't wow you with his stuff but he's out there throwing strikes and letting the hitters get themselves out. Then he hurt himself....now he's walking guys, not getting up on counts and generally getting his ass handed to him. Chavez looks like that type of guy...the pre injury Bass. That's just the kind of guy they need. The only thing that is close to a certainty is that pitchers that walk batters and regularly get behind on pitch counts will almost always be bad. Even good hitters fail 70% of the time...you have to make them swing the bat.

 

[anotheridiot]

I dont know what happened to Wilson when he got here, he was not the same pitcher he was in Detroit. Do not know if it was how he was handled or how the cubs game plan for hitters or what, but it was quite a fall off coming to the NL. I know Britton is a different guy, but who knows if the same thing happens. Its so quick to come to the conclusion that the AL pitchers have a higher ERA since they are always facing hitters, but relievers pretty much face all hitters in the NL too. Wilson was used as a part time closer and blamed the lower leverage situations on his lack of focus, but he as almost always been a 1bb to 2K guy. Taking a closer like Britton and putting him in the setup role is the worrysome part with Britton. He is looking at some stupid free agent money if he remains a closer somewhere.

 

[CSF77]

I got the feeling that the market is going to over price Britton and some team will over pay due to having a deeper farm.

I like Chavez and am glad with that. If they focus on getting Yu and Smyly active to fill needs while scouting the waver wire in Aug I’m fine with that.

I’m kinda like Britton is still getting his legs under himself right now and will be in a better place this offseason. Cubs should attack then with payroll cleared from F/A. Morrow and Briton locked up is a strong 8-9 next year.

But looking at F/A I’m pretty sure Strop and Wilson are off.

That is the way I would approach it right now honestly and let our competition deplete future resources.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

The funny thing about Britton is that the Astros seem really interested in acquiring him because they don't seem to trust Hector Rondon as their full-time closer, to take them through the playoffs. Sounds familiar.

We may not have a strong need to sign a second closer, but then again, we need to anticipate what other NL teams, especially what the Brewers, might do at the trade wire. A second closer might make up the difference for us if Milwaukee does something like trade for deGrom. So, there are two forces at work, here -- how best to incrementally improve above the rest of the division, and how best to maintain a leadership position in the division based on what the other teams in the division do -- that they haven't done yet.

That's why it's not a straightforward process, and why we have so much fun sitting around speculating...

 

[beckdawg]

What I'd like to know is if the Astros plan to acquire Britton and they probably can beat the cubs offer.... what's their plan with Ken Giles? They demoted him to AAA after an outburst from getting pulled. There's some baggage there admittedly but depending on price I wouldn't hate him as a change of scene guy

 

[CSF77]

What I'd like to know is if the Astros plan to acquire Britton and they probably can beat the cubs offer.... what's their plan with Ken Giles? They demoted him to AAA after an outburst from getting pulled. There's some baggage there admittedly but depending on price I wouldn't hate him as a change of scene guy

Accually he is the reason why I doubt they go full tilt. All is happening is he is getting back into a groove right now. He was spuraticly used and lost sharpness

 

[Diehardfan]

With Suter now out for the year, what would you do if you're the Milwaukee GM? Do you make a run of late deals to try save the season? Maybe, but they have some deep problems right now. Their lack of depth is showing and it's not just in the pitching. While you got Aquilar having a career year and the deals for Cain and Yelich being a plus, that's being offset by Braun looking retirement in the face and Broxton proving to be strictly one dimensional. Villar is hurt....SS has ex White Sox Saladino taking over. The bottom half of their lineup is borderline useless. I think they ride it out and stay status quo as they're a bit ahead of schedule as it is.

 

[CSF77]

With Suter now out for the year, what would you do if you're the Milwaukee GM? Do you make a run of late deals to try save the season? Maybe, but they have some deep problems right now. Their lack of depth is showing and it's not just in the pitching. While you got Aquilar having a career year and the deals for Cain and Yelich being a plus, that's being offset by Braun looking retirement in the face and Broxton proving to be strictly one dimensional. Villar is hurt....SS has ex White Sox Saladino taking over. The bottom half of their lineup is borderline useless. I think they ride it out and stay status quo as they're a bit ahead of schedule as it is.

I think they will try not to be labeled as a first half team. They are a team that went in over the top and I expect them to go over board.

 

[chibears55]

Britton is for October more then now..
That why the interest is high for him

He has a rested arm from missing majority of season and will have the next 2 months to get fully ready..

He has improved each game since his return

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[CSF77]

Trade Chips:
AAA:
How I would rank them also:

Trevor Clifton: 7.48 SO/9 3.6 BB/9 BAA: .219
Underwood: 7.77 SO/9 2.92 BB/9 BAA: .259
Mills: 7.49 SO/9 3.14 BB/9 BAA: .271

Hitting wise not much out side of Bote and Zag. Vosler is a maybe as a 3B/1B bat little pop. 17 HR's from the left side.

AA is where you are looking more so at pure talent. AAA is more of players that can fill a role at the major league level.

Talent wise:
Michael Rucker: 8.65 SO/9 2.52 BB/9 .223 BAA
Matt Swarmer: 9.816 SO/9 1.54 BB/9 .231 BAA (ya this is legit)
Keegan Thompson: 7.88 SO/9 2.16 BB/9 .217 BAA

So these 3 are the hot ticket types at this level. Swarmer is pretty insane right now and should be making rankings soon.

The thing about Swarmer is he is striking guys out at AA after the promotion 1:1. Walks went up a tick but he had plenting of tick to give.

Now him Duncan and Rucker are all 24 this year, So trading 1 to 2 of them might be wise before their value dips. Of the 3 Rucker has the track record. But Swarmer has insane numbers supporting his case.

 

[chibears55]

So, their looking to add pitching..

https://twitter.com/PJ_Mooney/status/1021747260332429312?s=19

https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/1021387199202414592?s=19

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[CSF77]

Let’s see: Brad Brach. Pass

Honestly there has to be better options out there.

I see depth as Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Edwards, Chavez. Wilson, Rosero, Duesing

So looking it over after Morrow returns the main need is a lefty. Not another right hand guy.

Now they could just play wait and see with Smyly. He has/had a simulated (not sure on date/result) if good he goes into rehab games which I expect to last until Aug 1st ish.

Darvish is a bigger issue going on here.

I see the rotation as being Lester, Q, Hendricks, Montgomery, Chatwood in depth.

So they could try and pack Chatwood and prospects to upgrade him. Balt is a maybe but it really seems like they are passing on taking on contract. Or the same with Montgomery. I believe that this is a wrong move because if they just add a starter they can slide Montgomery back to the pen.

At the end of the day I don’t see Britton as a match due to a short farm. But he could be a option in F/A after losing Strop and Wilson.

Now if they did hold off and Yu fails to return a off ball option in wavers is Cole Hamels. Now he has about 8 mil left with a 20 mil/6 mil buy out. If they did plug him and negotiated him for Chatwood strait?

That was the only scenario that I could stomach honestly when milling over the rumors on him. Cubs are exempt from his no trade so...

 

[chibears55]

Throwing this thought out there...

Cubs decide they dont want to pay the cost of an upgraded SP and roll the dice with Monty and Chatwood and hope 1for the best with Darvish come September and October..

Do they then spend what they can on a couple of solid relievers to make sure they have guys who can get them through innings 6 thru 9+..

The depth is good to get them through the regular season but maybe they upgrade where they can to also get them through the playoffs where their basically just looking for starters to go 5 or 6, then turn it over to the pen..

Getting Britton would be hitting the reliever homerun this deadline but if they cant land him, maybe they look to the next level and grab a couple of guys that could get them through the middle innings...
Guys that aren't quite on the trading radar now


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[CSF77]

Throwing this thought out there...

Cubs decide they dont want to pay the cost of an upgraded SP and roll the dice with Monty and Chatwood and hope 1for the best with Darvish come September and October..

Do they then spend what they can on a couple of solid relievers to make sure they have guys who can get them through innings 6 thru 9+..

The depth is good to get them through the regular season but maybe they upgrade where they can to also get them through the playoffs where their basically just looking for starters to go 5 or 6, then turn it over to the pen..

Getting Britton would be hitting the reliever homerun this deadline but if they cant land him, maybe they look to the next level and grab a couple of guys that could get them through the middle innings...
Guys that aren't quite on the trading radar now


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Speaking realistically: Astros have a better shot at signing him. After that Phillies. Cubs and Brewers are next tier. Boston and Yankee’s dont need him but are always in the mix. Braves and D-Backs are also potential suitors.

Over all I just see this market as bad. His walk rate has not improved with time and his sinker is still sitting 93 pre injury 96-97. So it is back at his starter era velocity.

I really don’t want to see them over paying.

Smyly will be on a 2nd sum game thurs and he felt good after his Sunday sim. After that he goes on a rehab. It sounds like they will try to lengthen his arm first. So looking at the minors AAA is the likely landing spot. They have Mills, Tseng. Both have really been just regular starters. Clifton and Underwood have been used as piggyback guys. Then Coleman is back for a 2nd stint and has been decent. Then add Ferrell who is not in the dog house.

Seems like a lot going on but that staff has been is constant flux and is more used to change.

 

[chibears55]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1021909177063628800?s=19

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[chibears55]

Speaking realistically: Astros have a better shot at signing him. After that Phillies. Cubs and Brewers are next tier. Boston and Yankee’s dont need him but are always in the mix. Braves and D-Backs are also potential suitors.

Over all I just see this market as bad. His walk rate has not improved with time and his sinker is still sitting 93 pre injury 96-97. So it is back at his starter era velocity.

I really don’t want to see them over paying.

Smyly will be on a 2nd sum game thurs and he felt good after his Sunday sim. After that he goes on a rehab. It sounds like they will try to lengthen his arm first. So looking at the minors AAA is the likely landing spot. They have Mills, Tseng. Both have really been just regular starters. Clifton and Underwood have been used as piggyback guys. Then Coleman is back for a 2nd stint and has been decent. Then add Ferrell who is not in the dog house.

Seems like a lot going on but that staff has been is constant flux and is more used to change.

For the playoffs roster...

Don't think Smyley will be an option as i doubt theyll want to put him in stressful situations this soon..
Games here and there in August September but not October..

As for the rest, i could be wrong but i think maybe they would prefer a veteran over any of these young guys in the postseason...
Not saying a young guy couldn't be successful but those guys aren't exactly on the level of a hot prospect being brought up and having success late in year with a great chance of carrying it into the postseason..
Their more seasonal depth guys to get them through the DHers, or a couple games when needed..

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[chibears55]

Astros Yankees Redsox Cubs

https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1021842653120552962?s=19

Guess the best hope is Orioles decide to keep him out of AL, just because..lol

I think the cubs best chance is maybe they agree to take another player or two that Orioles would want to lose as a salary dump.

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[chibears55]

Well , it does look like the Yankees will get him..

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1021923949507215360?s=19

Their gonna have a super tough pen if he gets going..

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[CSF77]

For the playoffs roster...

Don't think Smyley will be an option as i doubt theyll want to put him in stressful situations this soon..
Games here and there in August September but not October..

As for the rest, i could be wrong but i think maybe they would prefer a veteran over any of these young guys in the postseason...
Not saying a young guy couldn't be successful but those guys aren't exactly on the level of a hot prospect being brought up and having success late in year with a great chance of carrying it into the postseason..
Their more seasonal depth guys to get them through the DHers, or a couple games when needed..

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For the play offs you expect Chatwood off. Montgomery in the pen .

Morrow 9th
8th Wilson and Strop
7th Edwards

In general with the lead. Now as we have seen Joe will yank around the 5th so the value of mid inning guys skyrocket in the play offs

Montgomery
Chavez
Smyly

So you have 3 vets in those crucial middle innings where you don’t have to sit on 1 guy

 

[chibears55]

For the play offs you expect Chatwood off. Montgomery in the pen .

Morrow 9th
8th Wilson and Strop
7th Edwards

In general with the lead. Now as we have seen Joe will yank around the 5th so the value of mid inning guys skyrocket in the play offs

Montgomery
Chavez
Smyly

So you have 3 vets in those crucial middle innings where you don’t have to sit on 1 guy

Like i said, i don't think theyll stress out Smyley for the playoffs..

Hell we dont even know how affective he will be if or when he actually pitches in a major league game, let alone risk counting on him now for a playoff spot a week before the deadline ends...

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