2018 MLB Draft

[CubsFaninMN]

Cole Roederer for pick 77...

 

[CubsFaninMN]

And Pauil Richan for the 78th pick. The first pitcher we've taken, I believe...

 

[beckdawg]

I'm excited about the last pick. Wonder if they take a chance on Rocker if he is there with the next pick

I doubt Rocker gets picked for awhile. Here's the thing, there's only maybe 1 or 2 teams that have the money to sign him out of college. So, you don't need to draft him now. You can wait usually til like the 11th round for this sorta guy. The last 2 picks the cubs took were almost certainly below slot guys. I think Davis was maybe slot or slightly below slot. And Nico i'd guess is a little below slot. So, they are building a decent amount of money to play with is my guess.

 

[beckdawg]

Richan mlb.com Rank: 175

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45

As a sophomore at the University of San Diego, Richan began as a reliever, but gained confidence when given the chance to move into the rotation. He's been a weekend starter all year and while he's had some up-and-down results, he's far outperformed fellow Draft prospect Nick Sprengel.

Richan has missed a ton of bats this spring, while walking very few, thanks to a solid four-pitch mix. He'll throw his fastball up to 94 mph consistently, complementing it with a pair of breaking balls. His slider will show flashes of being above-average and he'll fold in a fringy curve as well. His changeup continues to develop and could eventually be average when all is said and done. While he has a high strikeout rate, he's also been fairly hittable.

Richan is more floor than ceiling, though he does have a solid delivery and a good 6-foot-3 pitcher's frame. His upside is as a No. 4 or 5 starter, one who could come off the board in the top six rounds, which would make him the first San Diego pitcher to be taken that early since David Hill was a fourth-round pick of the Rockies in 2015.

 

[Bigfoot]

Beck, what do you think of the last pick.

 

[beckdawg]

Beck, what do you think of the last pick.

I don't know much about Richan but here's my gut feeling on the last 2 picks. The cubs took guys that were guys they liked but were guys who were ranked lower than the pick and who would take whatever amount the cubs offered. As an example here, the 175 rank mlb.com put on Richan would make him a 6th round pick if everyone was drafted according to rank. The 175th pick is worth $271,100 in slot money. The 78th pick is worth $762,900 in slot money. So, what is probably going to happen is they will offer him like say $300k to sign and given they drafted him he's going to sign. They then have ~$475k in money to play with. Roederer wasn't ranked in mlb.com's top 200 so you're likely looking at probably $1 mil in slot money they still have to play with just between those 2. Davis I'm not sure on. Like mlb.com had him at 145 but he has enough tools that it wouldn't shock me to see him go around the 2nd/3rd round. But for the sake of argument his slot was worth $1,060,900 and the 145th pick is supposed to be worth $361,000. Nico went probably 10 picks early at least and maybe more depending on who you ask. The 24th pick was worth $2,724,000. As an example if you go down to the 40th pick that's worth $1,786,300

So, I don't know for a fact but it wouldn't shock me if they are sitting on deals with those 4 guys that are close to $2 mil under the slot values for their picks. I'm not entirely sure what it would take to get one of the top guys like Rocker/Cole Wilcox to sign but $2 mil is basically like being the #35 pick and you can offer anyone in the 11th+ $100k without it counting. In other words, if I'm right they could offer those guys $2.1 mil in the 11th round.

I had to say the length part above before talking about guys because it's obviously a GIANT caveat to how they were drafted. But Richan looks like a cubs starter. His college stats are here http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=201425 . Basically, he's a low walk rate guy who this year has seen his k rate go up a lot. I don't know this for a fact but I'm guessing he'll be a ground ball heavy guy who has a deceptive delivery. That's been the type of college guy they target cheaply. I would guess he's not going to be much more than what Michael Rucker is but that has some value especially if you count the money he is likely saving you for a bigger prize.

Roederer I'll have to get back to you on. He's not really on the radar but they seemed to indicate on the draft coverage he was a toolsy guy who got hurt

 

[beckdawg]

Ok I didn't find a ton on Roederer but what I found was basically he's played CF and has a chance at being a 5 tool guy. I want to temper that a bit by saying people tend to think of "5 tool guys" as HUGE prospects but in actuality what the term really means is the guy has a chance at all 5 tools being 50 or better grade. IE, Almora has a chance if his power creeps up to be a 5 tool guy. Roederer was signed to go to UCLA which is a good sign because they are one of the better college programs. His HS is one of the better programs in cali and has produced a number of MLB guys. UCLA's coach said he could potentially be a lead off hitter.

The feeling I'm getting here is a guy who can play all 3 OF spots but CF is kind of a stretch. I could be wrong because i have no idea how fast he is. But wouldn't shock me if he was something like Szczur was based on what I read. I'm sure the cubs will put out some more useful quotes in the next day or so.

 

[beckdawg]

Ok found some more on roederer.... apparently he stole 40 out of 43 bases in 79 games which tells me he's at least a plus runner so CF would make sense for him.

That's also kind of interesting if indeed he's a 60+ runner because Nico and Davis are both plus runners as well. Also read Davis apparently was wanting like $1.2-1.5 mil to sign which would basically be slot or slightly over slot for the second round pick. That doesn't quite surprise me given he's kind of a tool shed. Still i think the cubs likely are well under their pick value enough to target someone way above slot later.

 

[CSF77]

Ok found some more on roederer.... apparently he stole 40 out of 43 bases in 79 games which tells me he's at least a plus runner so CF would make sense for him.

That's also kind of interesting if indeed he's a 60+ runner because Nico and Davis are both plus runners as well. Also read Davis apparently was wanting like $1.2-1.5 mil to sign which would basically be slot or slightly over slot for the second round pick. That doesn't quite surprise me given he's kind of a tool shed. Still i think the cubs likely are well under their pick value enough to target someone way above slot later.

They might have wanted the potential and the money issue was never there.

They seem to just find guys like this. He has a feel of Jimenez to him honestly. I can see them taking it slow with him.

Other guys most likely are savings deals. Talent cap is lower.

 

[CSF77]

My main problem with underslotting is if you are losing quality in higher rounds to save up for a HS player gamble later rounds it most likely will come up short. Either they will not give up a commitment regardless and if I had a free ride like that at a prestigious college with a solid baseball program then nothing sways me. An education is a great fall back plan and getting quick cash instead can end up the worse option in the he long run. Depends if the kid is gifted intelligence also or just a athlete.

Another problem lies in drafting for today’s team problems over aiming for the best talent available. The first 2 picks I have no issues with. They both have real talent. The 2nd 2 felt bargain bin honestly. Info was vague on the hitter and the pitcher was a weekend pitcher in a weaker college program. Not really a early round gem in either case. The hitter was a prototype for a lacking on the team. Lead off. Well that doesn’t fix the problem. Drafting a 3 year away kid doesn’t fix your lead off issues. This is like when they drafted Little. Needed a high leverage lefty and they use their first pick for one. And he is in A ball. Ya really smart.

It makes me wonder some times. It is really simple. Scout the talent near your picks and rank them by talent. Take the best pick. Not what you need today.

Now on a 1st rounds you get involved more. Get to know the guys as it is a heavy commitment and you want to profile more but later round you are gambling more and drafting guys with a 70 speed with a projectable frame is brilliant. Other 2 meh. Kinda felt like they took the 2 freebies and dropped the ball to over slot some kids that they never get anyways.

Far better to target the best talent on those bonus picks because the talent in that part of the draft is still decent vs a long shot

 

[beckdawg]

That's not usually the way underslotting works though. Basically my understanding of when teams do it is because they have a bunch of guys clustered together with similar values. For example, let's say you have like 50 guys roughly at the same value. If you like all of those guys similarly and one will take substantially less money why would you not get him?

As for it being a risk.... it's not. They know the number they need for someone like Rocker if they want him. It's possible I'm wrong in what they are doing but they aren't drafting a guy and losing that slot money. They have plans to use it on someone and they likely already have a handshake agreement in place. That's why these types of players don't usually get drafted in the 1-10 rounds. Those picks carry compensation and it's rather rare(usually injury related) when a guy doesn't sign because failing to sign one of those guys means you lose the slot money for that pick.

Best way to think about is like this..... in the NFL draft you'll often see teams "reach" for a player. It's always a guy they really like and people think it's a reach because the guy wasn't rated higher. In the NFL the comment is usually "shoulda traded down." But you can't do that in the MLB draft. So, on those 2 comp picks they might just have them highly rated internally and it works because they want to save slot money anyways.

Overall, I'm really happy with what they did. Davis could be the next Velazquez type who immediately pops up into prospect rankings. His tools are that loud. Obviously he's still raw but of the 130 players fangraphs ranked, they had 6 with ++ athletic ability. Davis was 1. They had 12 players who had ++ frame. Davis was also 1. He was the only player with both ++ athletic ability and ++ frame. Nico I think is going to be the next in the line of guys the cubs draft who just hit. I wish he had more power but he's one of the best hitters in the class who can play all over the field. That's basically the cubs MO. Roederer doesn't appear to be quite as toolsy as Davis but he's fairly toolsy. And Richan isn't super exciting but he fits the mold of the pitcher they like which is to say low bb rate high k rate.

If they end up using the saved slot money to get a quasi-first round talent I think this draft is a pretty big home run. Roederer and Davis have big potential. Nico has a great floor. Richan doesn't have a very high ceiling IMO but he's probably going to be useful. You get one more impact talent out of this draft and it's a pretty big success to me.

 

[anotheridiot]

With Edwards, Strop and Cishek why do you need an eighth inning guy from the outside? Assuming Edwards comes back healthy of course.

because these are the cubs and they just have to make some kind of move and Joe will always side with the betteran.

My whole point is they have to commit to wanting to get a guy and leave him where he can work on his craft. Look at the past 4 years and its always buying pitching and trading pitching.

 

[CSF77]

That's not usually the way underslotting works though. Basically my understanding of when teams do it is because they have a bunch of guys clustered together with similar values. For example, let's say you have like 50 guys roughly at the same value. If you like all of those guys similarly and one will take substantially less money why would you not get him?

As for it being a risk.... it's not. They know the number they need for someone like Rocker if they want him. It's possible I'm wrong in what they are doing but they aren't drafting a guy and losing that slot money. They have plans to use it on someone and they likely already have a handshake agreement in place. That's why these types of players don't usually get drafted in the 1-10 rounds. Those picks carry compensation and it's rather rare(usually injury related) when a guy doesn't sign because failing to sign one of those guys means you lose the slot money for that pick.

Best way to think about is like this..... in the NFL draft you'll often see teams "reach" for a player. It's always a guy they really like and people think it's a reach because the guy wasn't rated higher. In the NFL the comment is usually "shoulda traded down." But you can't do that in the MLB draft. So, on those 2 comp picks they might just have them highly rated internally and it works because they want to save slot money anyways.

Overall, I'm really happy with what they did. Davis could be the next Velazquez type who immediately pops up into prospect rankings. His tools are that loud. Obviously he's still raw but of the 130 players fangraphs ranked, they had 6 with ++ athletic ability. Davis was 1. They had 12 players who had ++ frame. Davis was also 1. He was the only player with both ++ athletic ability and ++ frame. Nico I think is going to be the next in the line of guys the cubs draft who just hit. I wish he had more power but he's one of the best hitters in the class who can play all over the field. That's basically the cubs MO. Roederer doesn't appear to be quite as toolsy as Davis but he's fairly toolsy. And Richan isn't super exciting but he fits the mold of the pitcher they like which is to say low bb rate high k rate.

If they end up using the saved slot money to get a quasi-first round talent I think this draft is a pretty big home run. Roederer and Davis have big potential. Nico has a great floor. Richan doesn't have a very high ceiling IMO but he's probably going to be useful. You get one more impact talent out of this draft and it's a pretty big success to me.

Picks 3 and 4 were typical later picks that they have historically made. Low upside high floor.

That is why the system is in the state it is. Bunch of interesting players but no high impact guys.

The best talent that they have gained has been from the first round and from the international rounds when they were not restricted. Under restriction they have tapped Mexico and have found another avenue.

I liked the first 2 picks. First guy should be fairly quick and they needed a player that fits Joe. 2nd pick is a 4-5 year process pick with huge tools. Those guys could end up boom or bust.

Other 2 are just like most that they picked. Fringe types like Zastryzny and Hannemann.

 

[beckdawg]

Picks 3 and 4 were typical later picks that they have historically made. Low upside high floor.

Roederer doesn't strike me as low upside. He probably doesn't have an astronomical ceiling like some prospects can but they compared him to Andrew Benintendi. I'd wager more the pre-college version of him but obviously you're buying the upside chance on the guy. You're talking a 20/20 type who can play all 3 outfield positions and hit decent.... that's not a bad prospect. I mean he had a UCLA commitment. If he played 2 years for them as someone who was top 200 or whatever now he'd like be top 75 or better in 2 years.

My main thing with him is how much they are signing him for. If it's below slot I really like the pick. If it's at slot or right around slot I'm ok with it. If they are buying him out of college over slot I'm less sure. But the thing is they know how to draft hitters. So, if their scouts are saying the guy can play he's probably underrated. This is largely the same group of guys who found Mookie Betts in the 5th round.

 

[beckdawg]

Draft is starting up soon i'll be fellowing with comments as they go. Here's what I'm expecting... I think they take at least one upside arm. If they have the money saved that could be a wilcox/rocker type arm. if not you're looking more at a guy like Hudson was or Estrada was last year. The rest of the pitching they get I would assume is going to be polished college guys without huge upside. I suppose there's an argument to be made with their depth for a few more risky HS arms but I think even the HS arms they could take are going to be guys like Hudson was who is more a safe-ish guy who's projectable. I don't envisioning them taking guys with like plus stuff and no command.

In terms of bats, look for athletic guys up the middle(CF/SS/C) mostly. They may take a few guys with big power as that's kind of a weakness. Two names I can see them taking if available in the third are Gage Canning and Kyle Isbel. Both are college performers who don't have a ton of upside.

 

[Bigfoot]

Roger Clemens son was the 1st pick of 3rd round

 

[Bigfoot]

Royals took Kyle Isbel.

 

[beckdawg]

Third round pick is Herron, Jimmy from duke. Will update this post with more info as i get it.

Edit: On draft stuff they said basically high hit/speed CF type which fits what they've been doing. Isn't rated by mlb.com

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=199852

Edit 2: 165 at BA

 

[Bigfoot]

Jimmy Herron from Duke CF

 

[Bigfoot]

Looks like we are going for more contact college bats, and high ceiling HS bats