2018 MLB Draft

beckdawg

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9th round pick is Derek Casey who is a RHP out of Va. Senior sign so probably money saver.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=187900

Michael Cerami
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@Michael_Cerami
The Cubs just took Derek Casey in the ninth round of the draft - this is the second time they've drafted him: he passed on $900,000 as a high schooler from the Cubs back in 2014.
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Ok this is slightly inaccurate. Cards took him in the 22nd round but apparently the cubs would have taken him in the 3rd/4th round and offered him $900k but he wouldn't take that thus wasn't picked.
 

beckdawg

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So recap after day 2... cubs got a lot of good hitters stats wise.

Luke reynolds
.373/.506/.590 18.24/15.35 bb/k rate over 658 PAs in college. He's hitting .400/.562/.727 this year

DJ Artis
.339/.495/.487 20.02/12.91 bb/k rate over 829 PAs in college. Down year this year though only hitting .292/.458/.457. Also was 72/85 in SB chances so has some wheels.

Andy Weber
.305/.371/.442 8.28/11.55 bb/k over 580 PAs. .344/.415/.536 this year

Jimmy Herron
.315/.415/.452 12.15/10.51 bb/k over 790 PAs. .296/.416/.440 this year 62/75 sb chances on career so again more speed.

Nico Hoerner
.304/.351/.406 6.26/9.59 bb/k over 751 PAs. .349/.396/.498this year.

Weber and Herron were in probably the #2 conference in baseball(ACC). Hoerner is probably #3 in the pac. Reynolds i believe is in a pretty good conf USA but not at the level of the SEC/ACC/PAC. D.J. Artis at liberty is some rather inferior competition but that walk rate he has is absurd.

The two HS bats seem like their upside plays while most of the guys above seem more like your Bote types who you're hoping hit their way to the majors but aren't likely to be stars or even big prospects until they get to AAA. In terms of the pitchers, Derek Casey, Zach Mort, and Paul Richan all seem like essentially the same guy which is to say polished college arm with good bb/k ratios. Ethan Roberts is a sort of interesting reliever but typically relievers aren't highly drafted so likely a money play. Kohl Franklin i have like nothing on but would appear to be an upside play. My guess is the cubs really like him and they are really high on him comparable to everyone else. Typically you don't take HS picks in the 6-10 range unless it's a Cease type.

Going into day 3, I truly believe the cubs have a lot of money. I've read that it sounds like Cole Wilcox and Kumar Rocker are both going to college. So that kinda sucks but if I'm right the cubs have enough money to sign a top 100 type guy out of college. Wouldn't shock me if the guy was Austin Becker. Cubs have been big on curveball guys lately and other than Tim Cate/Carter Steward his is among the best in the class at a 60. Owen Sharts is another similar guy as is Zack Hess and Chandler Champlain. Of those 4, Hess has the best FB/CB combo both being 60's but his third pitch is a 45 and his command is a 45. Becker is 55/60 50 with 45 command. Shart is 45/60 55 55 command. Camplain is 50/60 50 and 50 command. Presumably they aren't saving money for a bat as there's really not someone that jumps out as an obvious gotta sign him type left.

I think what you're going to see is they will likely take someone like the 4 above in the 11th. I think then you're going to see them take some intriguing HS names SUPER late. From there, you basically offer the 11th round guy what you think he'll take. If he doesn't you can spend some of the left over money on super late picks. I'm guessing the odds are high on the 11th round guy signing but in case it falls through or whatever chances are you see them have some interesting HS guys who you can spread the $1-1.5 mil I think they have left over 3-4 guys and essentially make them 3rd/4thish range picks to buy them out of college.
 
chibears55

chibears55

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Baseball draft is funny and backwards....

Outside the top 5 or 10

The better players get drafted in late rounds so you can pay them more..lol


Like... youre hoping you don't get picked til the last round so you can make a ton of money..

With the 20th pick of round 1
Please don't pick me
Please don't pick me

Lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

beckdawg

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chibears55 said:
Baseball draft is funny and backwards....

Outside the top 5 or 10

The better players get drafted in late rounds so you can pay them more..lol


Like... youre hoping you don't get picked til the last round so you can make a ton of money..

With the 20th pick of round 1
Please don't pick me
Please don't pick me

Lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Not really. It's more a case of the MLB having two distinct pools of players in HS vs college where as at least now anyways NBA/NFL don't. It's more a case of leverage. HS players have it and unless you're a draft eligible soph. in college you probably don't. Occasionally a really good college jr will go back for his senior year but that's pretty rare. So, what happens is it becomes a game for the HS player on gambling if he makes more by going to college or taking what he can get now.

Ultimately it's rarely about the best players getting the most money. The reason people get lots of money late is usually because they aren't good enough to get drafted top 10 and teams are gambling on their skills improving. Take the cubs pick Davis for example. He's probably an over slot 2nd round pick. If he were to go to college and hit he's probably a top 15 pick. But he has to balance that against A) performing in college B) staying healthy and C) time to majors. HS players can get to the majors at 21-22 usually. Some super talented guys will get there sooner but that's generally the range. Most college players are only drafted at 21 and you then have 2-3 years to the majors.

That's why it's kind of nonsensical to worry about "over drafting" or "reaching" on guys. I mean I can see the argument if you're talking about a college guy but there's 2 types of college guys who show up in drafts. 1) guys who didn't sign because they weren't offered enough in a previous draft and 2) guys who no one had a clue about. As an example, joey bart was a 27th round pick as a HS prospect. Casey Mize went undrafted as a HS as did Alec Bohm. Those are you're top 3 picks in this draft. And you're often going to see that. Drafting HS guys is almost always purely on tools. But there's lots of guys with tools and no polish that never amount to anything.

And one other thing that's interesting about the draft is it's often a case of robbing peter to pay paul. If you have a particularly bad draft pool you're going to see people draft more hs players. But that then is going to hurt a subsequent draft 2 years later if you don't have a lot of surprise guys pop up.
 
anotheridiot

anotheridiot

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chibears55 said:
Baseball draft is funny and backwards....

Outside the top 5 or 10

The better players get drafted in late rounds so you can pay them more..lol


Like... youre hoping you don't get picked til the last round so you can make a ton of money..

With the 20th pick of round 1
Please don't pick me
Please don't pick me

Lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It really is. Its also the only sport that no first pick is ever expected to compete for a starting spot right away where NBA and NFL they are expected to. You have to bribe High school players to stay out of college, where the NBA forces kids to go to college at least one year, while the NFL uses colleges as their minor leagues. There are about 2000 drafted players that people went thru this whole draftgasm for that are wasting away somewhere.
 

beckdawg

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13th round pick is Ezequiel Pagan CF out of a puerto rico hS.

Pagan is a loose and projectable outfielder from Puerto Rico who's full of quick-twitch muscle as evidenced by his 6.63 60-yard dash. He also threw 90 mph from the outfield with sound mechanics and offered loose hands from the left side of the plate with fluidity to his path.
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Ezequiel Pagan is a 2018 OF/3B with a 6-1 163 lb. frame from Guayanilla, PR who attends Pro Baseball High School Academy. Long and slender athletic build, not strong yet but has lots of physical projection, young Denard Span build. 6.63 runner, moves very easily in the outfield and on the bases, will have plus range in centerfield, has good arm strength with a long and loose arm action, very good defensive tools overall that will keep improving with repetitions and fundamentals. Left handed hitter, simple lower half shift into contact, big barrel wrap creates some length but can create whip when he gets extended, still learning to adjust to inside velocity and get his hands it, has hitting tools that project. Good student, signed with Broward CC.
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beckdawg

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15th round pick is Tyler Durna 1B from UC san diego

baseball cube doesn't have stats on him

Looked him up a bit. If you've payed attention to how they've drafted he wont be a surprise. Good walk rate/average, low k rate. Looks to have about average power.
 

beckdawg

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20th round pick is Chris Allen Marin CC LHP
 

beckdawg

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So recapping 11-20.... seems like they drafted a lot of guys likely to be relievers. Allen appears to be the only obvious starter to me. Jake Slaughter is a little bit interesting given he's a draft eligible soph they drafted 2 years ago. They must really like him. Honestly wasn't many names here that are that interesting to me. If they have money left over i'm guessing in the 20-30 we may start seeing it. 11-20 seems more like org filling depth types.

Edit: I guess i kind of under sold Ezequiel Pagan he's kind of interesting.
 

beckdawg

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JJ Cooper
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@jjcoop36
(Thread). Now that's we're through the 11th-19th rounds, some picks that stand out.

11. Cubs. Riley Thompson. Hasn't come together yet at Louisville, but tons of arm speed.
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more info on thompson.
 

beckdawg

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Another thought I just had re: what appear to be a bunch of relievers. Cubs have been doing something sorta interesting the past 2 years where they start guys like Rollie Lacy and Michael Rucker in the bullpen and if they perform they allow them the chance to start. One of the reason i was kinda down on the 11-10 rounds was because the pitchers who were most of the picks had good k/9's but little to no command. Typically that means you're a reliever and typically relievers have little value as prospects. However, it's possible they do this whole reliever to starter thing again and some of these guys have more interesting stuff if they are good enough to start. So, the pitching they drafted seems kind high risk/reward.

It also puts the one HS pitcher they took in stark contrast. They must REALLY like him because they rarely draft HS arms.
 
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