Right now they kind of remind me of the early years when pax became GM. He turned the team around from a laughing stock to a solid playoff team, albeit one that had no chance. If the Bulls didn’t completely luck into D. Rose, they likely would have remained a 40-45 win team until pax got fired
From 2008 and prior, Pax had a habit and drafting guys that at least went to the Final Four (Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Tyrus, Noah were all at least in the Final Four the years they were drafted, Rose was too, but that one is more by accident).
If, the Bulls didn't move up to #1 in the lottery, they were picking #9. Players picked around there in reality were DJ Augstin (the actual #9 pick), Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless, Jason Thompson ,Brandon Rush.
Only Brandon Rush made the Final Four of that group, so if Paxson sticks to this philosophy here, that's your pick. If he doesn't, it's probably Augustin, unless he gets creative and makes a trade (unlikely).
So yeah, the Bulls dither and go about dysfunctional as a 35-45 win team, as you pretty much say. You say Paxson is gonna get fired. You know how many GMs Jerry Reinsdorf has fired? None. What likely happens is Paxson himself exits by 2011-12, like he tried to do in our reality (That's how Gar Forman got the power he did).
But instead, after a crappy 07-08, the Bulls lucked into #1, which is often how these stories go. Teams just luck into something and that's how they become title contenders. Teams that don't luck into these things, stay terrible. Some of it is scouting, having a good GM, etc, but in the end, a lot of it is just plain luck.
But that is how I was kind of viewing this season going in, as a 2004-05 type season. Instead we somehow bolted to the top of the East and looked really competitive at times. In the end, we finished a little worse than the 04-05 Bulls.
I don't see next year being a whole lot different with minor changes to be honest. Yes, some three and D guys would be nice, but every team in the league is hunting for those. Obviously we need some more size too, another thing many in the league are hunting for. So making minor improvements is not easy. I also argue it doesn't change much in the end, as DeMar, Zach, and Vuc aren't leading you to any championships as a core. In the end, they'll always be defeated by the greats of the league.