2025 Regular Season IGT

[knoxville7]

Wanted to dig into some stats this morning on PCA. Was trying to mentally anchor where I thought he was based on his start to the season vs previous CF from history. Long story short he's a really difficult comp. Not many people have his skill defensively and the ones who do often didn't hit. But just as a guiding light here.... since July 1 last season he has 377 PAs where he has hit 14 homers and stole 22 bases while hitting .270/.318/.474 for a 119 wRC+. Obviously he's taking a big step forward thus far this season hitting .294/.339/.549 for a 146 wRC+ but i wanted to throw a bit more meat on the sample size.

To cut to the chase, he's playing a lot like prime Andruw Jones. 21-29 Jones hit .270/.347/.513. PCA probably steals more bases and thus far doesn't have quite the eye Jones did but I think people are gonna walk him more now that his power is breaking out some. He also looks like he's as good as prime Granderson and/or Cameron. For Cameron I think there's more bat there and defense for PCA. Granderson didn't have a lengthy peak but 2007 and 2011 look like reasonable comps to me.

But outside of those you have to start moving into some pretty crazy comps. Like I am not about to throw him in with Mays/Griffey Jr. but that's the kind of next tier you're talking about.

he is Kenny Lofton with more power

 

[SilenceS]

he

he is Kenny Lofton with more power

is Kenny Lofton with more power

Really great comparison, but PCA a couple of years younger on progression due to Kenny not even a baseball player. Came in a little later but man, loved watching him with Indians and I was fucking jacked when we traded for him in 2003; I loved the late 90;s Indians and seeing him be a Cub and on a team that man, should have won it.

 

[CSF77]

 

[CSF77]

Really great comparison, but PCA a couple of years younger on progression due to Kenny not even a baseball player. Came in a little later but man, loved watching him with Indians and I was fucking jacked when we traded for him in 2003; I loved the late 90;s Indians and seeing him be a Cub and on a team that man, should have won it.

PCA is not a lead off. And I never want to see him as one. Watching him try to take pitches and not be aggressive. It make him worse as a player.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1915872370444689894

 

[CSF77]

Best pix from that thread

 

[CSF77]

And another win. Rea is out performing.

.96 ERA. 9.71 SO/9. 1.53 BB/9.

Plus the pen was non high leverage and they put up 0's.

Wind in or not I will take that

 

[beckdawg]

Really great comparison, but PCA a couple of years younger on progression due to Kenny not even a baseball player. Came in a little later but man, loved watching him with Indians and I was fucking jacked when we traded for him in 2003; I loved the late 90;s Indians and seeing him be a Cub and on a team that man, should have won it.

He's a little bit different IMO. Lofton had much better plate skills with a career 10.2%/11.0% bb/k rates. Also I think Lofton was a great defender but i think PCA is better.

What makes PCA so unique is just that there's so few players who truly compare to him. I think from a bat stand point Andruw Jones matches up well except for the fact that Jones was a higher walk guy for his OBP and PCA is more of a BABIP low walk rate guy thus far though I do expect that to improve as pitchers stop challenging his power as much. Also Jones didn't steal bases.

I'll spare you all the details but I looked up seasons where a guy primarily played CF, had a .180 or higher ISO and stole 40+ bases. There's like 25 seasons in MLB history like that. Since july 1 2024 PCA has hit .270/.318/.474 for a 120 wRC+ 5.6%/22.0% bb/k rates, 14 HR, 22 SB, a .203 ISO over 337 PAs. which is roughly like 25-30 HR, 40 SB pace and given how he's started this season I think you can argue there's more SB in there. For giggles I have some comps for you.

Andruw Jones ages 21-29 hit .270/.347/.513 with a 119 OPS+ .243 ISO. Jones didn't steal bases really. 21-29 Cesar Cedeno who hit .293/.362/.467 with a 136 OPS+ and a .174 ISO. Cedeno wasn't nearly the fielder PCA is and it's kind of a different era being the 70s. Eric Davis 22-29.... .268/.363/.509 136 OPS+ and a .241 ISO. Davis also isn't the fielder PCA is. Davis was a stud though before injuries killed his career. Carlos Beltran 24-34 to try to give him his best "prime" years.... .285/.367/.510 128 OPS+ and a .225 ISO.

For reference here... Davis 34.9 career fWAR. Beltran 67.4 career fWAR. Andruw Jones 67.0 career fWAR. Cedeno 49.8 career fWAR. For the sake of argument.... Lofton 62.4 career fWAR and I'm arguing I think PCA's power gives him an edge over lofton's career .124 ISO. Lofton's probably a little bit better base stealer especially with his higher OBP but i think PCA is a better defender and a better power hitter.

Long story short... i went into this thinking PCA was good.... i'm not sure I thought he was as valuable as Beltran/Jones. Having looked at this I think you can make the case his prime he'll be as good if not better. Jones and Beltran are #11/10 in all time fWAR for primarily CF. It's a bit crazy to me to think he's on a similar path.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Will Andrew Jones get voted into the HoF? It’s always a topic here in Atlanta

 

[CSF77]

Still a bit early to comp PCA

 

[Bigfoot]

Will Andrew Jones get voted into the HoF? It’s always a topic here in Atlanta

You going to the all-star game this year. My wife wanted to get to make it down for the Home run derby, but not sure we will with the boys hockey schedule.