2025 Regular Season IGT

[knoxville7]

Wanted to dig into some stats this morning on PCA. Was trying to mentally anchor where I thought he was based on his start to the season vs previous CF from history. Long story short he's a really difficult comp. Not many people have his skill defensively and the ones who do often didn't hit. But just as a guiding light here.... since July 1 last season he has 377 PAs where he has hit 14 homers and stole 22 bases while hitting .270/.318/.474 for a 119 wRC+. Obviously he's taking a big step forward thus far this season hitting .294/.339/.549 for a 146 wRC+ but i wanted to throw a bit more meat on the sample size.

To cut to the chase, he's playing a lot like prime Andruw Jones. 21-29 Jones hit .270/.347/.513. PCA probably steals more bases and thus far doesn't have quite the eye Jones did but I think people are gonna walk him more now that his power is breaking out some. He also looks like he's as good as prime Granderson and/or Cameron. For Cameron I think there's more bat there and defense for PCA. Granderson didn't have a lengthy peak but 2007 and 2011 look like reasonable comps to me.

But outside of those you have to start moving into some pretty crazy comps. Like I am not about to throw him in with Mays/Griffey Jr. but that's the kind of next tier you're talking about.

he is Kenny Lofton with more power

 

[SilenceS]

he

he is Kenny Lofton with more power

is Kenny Lofton with more power

Really great comparison, but PCA a couple of years younger on progression due to Kenny not even a baseball player. Came in a little later but man, loved watching him with Indians and I was fucking jacked when we traded for him in 2003; I loved the late 90;s Indians and seeing him be a Cub and on a team that man, should have won it.

 

[CSF77]

 

[CSF77]

Really great comparison, but PCA a couple of years younger on progression due to Kenny not even a baseball player. Came in a little later but man, loved watching him with Indians and I was fucking jacked when we traded for him in 2003; I loved the late 90;s Indians and seeing him be a Cub and on a team that man, should have won it.

PCA is not a lead off. And I never want to see him as one. Watching him try to take pitches and not be aggressive. It make him worse as a player.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1915872370444689894

 

[CSF77]

Best pix from that thread

 

[CSF77]

And another win. Rea is out performing.

.96 ERA. 9.71 SO/9. 1.53 BB/9.

Plus the pen was non high leverage and they put up 0's.

Wind in or not I will take that

 

[beckdawg]

Really great comparison, but PCA a couple of years younger on progression due to Kenny not even a baseball player. Came in a little later but man, loved watching him with Indians and I was fucking jacked when we traded for him in 2003; I loved the late 90;s Indians and seeing him be a Cub and on a team that man, should have won it.

He's a little bit different IMO. Lofton had much better plate skills with a career 10.2%/11.0% bb/k rates. Also I think Lofton was a great defender but i think PCA is better.

What makes PCA so unique is just that there's so few players who truly compare to him. I think from a bat stand point Andruw Jones matches up well except for the fact that Jones was a higher walk guy for his OBP and PCA is more of a BABIP low walk rate guy thus far though I do expect that to improve as pitchers stop challenging his power as much. Also Jones didn't steal bases.

I'll spare you all the details but I looked up seasons where a guy primarily played CF, had a .180 or higher ISO and stole 40+ bases. There's like 25 seasons in MLB history like that. Since july 1 2024 PCA has hit .270/.318/.474 for a 120 wRC+ 5.6%/22.0% bb/k rates, 14 HR, 22 SB, a .203 ISO over 337 PAs. which is roughly like 25-30 HR, 40 SB pace and given how he's started this season I think you can argue there's more SB in there. For giggles I have some comps for you.

Andruw Jones ages 21-29 hit .270/.347/.513 with a 119 OPS+ .243 ISO. Jones didn't steal bases really. 21-29 Cesar Cedeno who hit .293/.362/.467 with a 136 OPS+ and a .174 ISO. Cedeno wasn't nearly the fielder PCA is and it's kind of a different era being the 70s. Eric Davis 22-29.... .268/.363/.509 136 OPS+ and a .241 ISO. Davis also isn't the fielder PCA is. Davis was a stud though before injuries killed his career. Carlos Beltran 24-34 to try to give him his best "prime" years.... .285/.367/.510 128 OPS+ and a .225 ISO.

For reference here... Davis 34.9 career fWAR. Beltran 67.4 career fWAR. Andruw Jones 67.0 career fWAR. Cedeno 49.8 career fWAR. For the sake of argument.... Lofton 62.4 career fWAR and I'm arguing I think PCA's power gives him an edge over lofton's career .124 ISO. Lofton's probably a little bit better base stealer especially with his higher OBP but i think PCA is a better defender and a better power hitter.

Long story short... i went into this thinking PCA was good.... i'm not sure I thought he was as valuable as Beltran/Jones. Having looked at this I think you can make the case his prime he'll be as good if not better. Jones and Beltran are #11/10 in all time fWAR for primarily CF. It's a bit crazy to me to think he's on a similar path.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Will Andrew Jones get voted into the HoF? It’s always a topic here in Atlanta

 

[CSF77]

Still a bit early to comp PCA

 

[Bigfoot]

Will Andrew Jones get voted into the HoF? It’s always a topic here in Atlanta

You going to the all-star game this year. My wife wanted to get to make it down for the Home run derby, but not sure we will with the boys hockey schedule.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Hope everyone kills themselves nicely

 

[Bigfoot]

Hope everyone kills themselves nicely

I did briefly than realized it was a nap.

 

[Probie2429]

Yankees benched Williams. Wonder if the Cubs call later in the season to see if he’s available considering the familiarity with Counsell.

 

[CSF77]

Yankees benched Williams. Wonder if the Cubs call later in the season to see if he’s available considering the familiarity with Counsell.

What was his issue? Command or velocity?

 

[CSF77]

Airbender is not effective right now. Report is pushed to low leverage to get his momentum going.

 

[beckdawg]

Still a bit early to comp PCA

I mean not really. The thing is we know what his defense is and that severely limits who you can comp him to. Someone like Kevin Kiermaier's best stretch was his age 24 season where he put up a .187 ISO while hitting .263/.315/.450 for a 117 wRC+. PCA is *already* better than that with the bat and KK didn't steal bases at the same clip PCA is.

And that's my point. PCA is unique because he steals bases are a high clip, plays other worldly defense in CF and has already shown well above league average power. That is his floor and that floor matches some pretty crazy profiles already. I would argue what we don't know is how good he can be but we can make a pretty educated guess of his floor. For example, if he starts walking at a 10% clip in the next year or two his already high floor goes nuts. But as is right now he's a top 5 position player in baseball and i don't even think you can argue he's "lucky". Like yeah he has a .342 BABIP but Corbin Carroll who's similarly fast has a .347 and his break out year he had a full season .325.

Edit: Also for what's worth, since July 1 last season when he roughly got out of his slump he's 10th in position player fWAR. That's a 100 game sample and obviously he's been far better with the bat this year than 2nd half last season.

 

[CSF77]

I mean not really. The thing is we know what his defense is and that severely limits who you can comp him to. Someone like Kevin Kiermaier's best stretch was his age 24 season where he put up a .187 ISO while hitting .263/.315/.450 for a 117 wRC+. PCA is *already* better than that with the bat and KK didn't steal bases at the same clip PCA is.

And that's my point. PCA is unique because he steals bases are a high clip, plays other worldly defense in CF and has already shown well above league average power. That is his floor and that floor matches some pretty crazy profiles already. I would argue what we don't know is how good he can be but we can make a pretty educated guess of his floor. For example, if he starts walking at a 10% clip in the next year or two his already high floor goes nuts. But as is right now he's a top 5 position player in baseball and i don't even think you can argue he's "lucky". Like yeah he has a .342 BABIP but Corbin Carroll who's similarly fast has a .347 and his break out year he had a full season .325.

Edit: Also for what's worth, since July 1 last season when he roughly got out of his slump he's 10th in position player fWAR. That's a 100 game sample and obviously he's been far better with the bat this year than 2nd half last season.

You have to go over a avg of data. The more data the better. Right now you are looking a strand of data.

To put into perspective look at Jake Arreta. His string would have made him the greatest of all time. But if you look at his career he is not a HOF.

We need more data vs a year or less of data to judge.

 

[CSF77]

PCA has a large hole in his game right now. His walk rate sucks. And pitchers can exploit it knowing that he will be aggressive.

This game is all about players adjusting. Right now PCA made a adjustment. Pitching will yet again find a exploit and attack it. Then PCA will have to counter.

I'm kinda looking at Rea as a example. He lowered his arm slot this year and it allows his 4 seem to stay above the normal swing paths which is causing more swing and miss rates.

The game is compiled of this. Players making adjustments. All data is it taking that info. Trying to predict future success off of that data is faulty. Because players are always adapting.

 

[knoxville7]

imagine caping for less data in the AI driven world of 2025