2b 2018

[CSF77]

He's hitting .270/.312/.493 since the start of June. People need to relax when a guy has a bad month or so. Also the guy is 23. Most players don't peak until they are 27. That's 4 years from now. And what do you mean huge step back? If you want to argue he hasn't taken a step forward ok but last year he hit .238/.321/.417. This year he's hitting .241/.305/.417. Literally the only difference is a 2% variance in his walk rate.

.305 OBA add to it he didn't progress off of last year.

The guy has trade value and I wouldn't muse it unless they were aiming for Archer. But I wouldn't call him off limits

 

[CSF77]

Anyways more to do with the line up vs anything else.

Bottom of the order you want a guy that has a higher BA to put the ball into play. Jay actually has been very good hitting lower in the order with Almora due to this fact.

But in general the team needs a replacement to Fowler. That has never been really resolved. CF and 2B are the obvious choices. And to be honest I would not mind seeing a speed guy at the top. It would give a whole different dimension to the line up.

Trea Turner comes to mind for the Nats. June 29 went on the DL. 35 SB up to that point. Now they are using Brian Goodwin in that role. More of a crutch but the team is so talented it really hasn't taken a nosedive.

Guys that come to mind:

Billy Hamilton: 44 SB but never been a fan of his OBA. .305 this year but he bring havoc if he gets on.
Dee Gordon: 40 SB .344 OBA More to my liking honestly.

Mia tends to make stupid deals and honestly is a team in transition and most likely will end up over hauling after it finishes selling.

 

[DanTown]

this board has far too much fascination with getting rid of players after stalling out for a month or two early in their career. I can get the idea that you may not like a hitter or a player but to say "oh this guys not going to make it because he's having a bad year at age 23" is crazy. MLB is literally littered with players who have bad years then have amazing years then regress and settle in somewhere in the middle. To champion Dexter Fowler, who didn't have a 3 WAR season until age 29, and say Russell, owner of an age 21 3.0 WAR and age 22 3.9 WAR season, should be traded is hysterical to me.

Patience is the number one virtue in player development. Imagine if the 2012 Royals sold off all their "bad" young players who weren't succeeding. I more than anyone on this board want to trade Schwarber but even I understand he can easily have a Conforto/Judge like rebound to his game next year.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

this board has far too much fascination with getting rid of players after stalling out for a month or two early in their career. I can get the idea that you may not like a hitter or a player but to say "oh this guys not going to make it because he's having a bad year at age 23" is crazy. MLB is literally littered with players who have bad years then have amazing years then regress and settle in somewhere in the middle. To champion Dexter Fowler, who didn't have a 3 WAR season until age 29, and say Russell, owner of an age 21 3.0 WAR and age 22 3.9 WAR season, should be traded is hysterical to me.

Patience is the number one virtue in player development. Imagine if the 2012 Royals sold off all their "bad" young players who weren't succeeding. I more than anyone on this board want to trade Schwarber but even I understand he can easily have a Conforto/Judge like rebound to his game next year.

Good post. You're absolutely right, these guys are very young. Hard to make career observations when guys are 23-25 years old.

 

[CSF77]

this board has far too much fascination with getting rid of players after stalling out for a month or two early in their career. I can get the idea that you may not like a hitter or a player but to say "oh this guys not going to make it because he's having a bad year at age 23" is crazy. MLB is literally littered with players who have bad years then have amazing years then regress and settle in somewhere in the middle. To champion Dexter Fowler, who didn't have a 3 WAR season until age 29, and say Russell, owner of an age 21 3.0 WAR and age 22 3.9 WAR season, should be traded is hysterical to me.

Patience is the number one virtue in player development. Imagine if the 2012 Royals sold off all their "bad" young players who weren't succeeding. I more than anyone on this board want to trade Schwarber but even I understand he can easily have a Conforto/Judge like rebound to his game next year.

More to do with him hitting .240 ish every year. Even last year where he put up 20 HR's and over 90 RBI's he still put out a .241 BA. Just think if he was hitting .270 with all of that OBA ahead of him

Now Contreras is doing that job and is wrecking house.

Now my opinion is using the age card is pretty weak. All of these guys are young. But in general they get the job done.

Now I get it if we are talking about a kid learning the league. But not a guy in his 3rd year.

Now that said I love his D and you could argue Baez/Russell all day. Both are very similar. 1 walks more other gets more hits but .320'OBA should be a good year for either. Power 20 HR's should be a peak now on either.

Just my opinion is with OBA ahead and the pitcher behind you want "more" contact vs another walk to bring the pitcher up or force a PH when it could have been avoided with contact from the 8

 

[DanTown]

More to do with him hitting .240 ish every year. Even last year where he put up 20 HR's and over 90 RBI's he still put out a .241 BA. Just think if he was hitting .270 with all of that OBA ahead of him

Now Contreras is doing that job and is wrecking house.

Now my opinion is using the age card is pretty weak. All of these guys are young. But in general they get the job done.

Now I get it if we are talking about a kid learning the league. But not a guy in his 3rd year.

Now that said I love his D and you could argue Baez/Russell all day. Both are very similar. 1 walks more other gets more hits but .320'OBA should be a good year for either. Power 20 HR's should be a peak now on either.

Just my opinion is with OBA ahead and the pitcher behind you want "more" contact vs another walk to bring the pitcher up or force a PH when it could have been avoided with contact from the 8

I don't have a problem with you saying how you want to balance a lineup (though personal preference usually doesn't matter and in fact typically is a worse lineup); my problem is you saying what kind of player Russell is going to be in the future because he's a 23 y/o who's having moderate success. You realize the difference for Russell is a hit a week instead a K? If he goes 7/25 with an extra single he all of the sudden would have a line of .280/.350/.455 and he has your magical ops of .800 and would be an excellent defender. He's 23. At this age, Kris Bryant was four months in to his rookie season and we've seen the increase in his hitting.

If he was a 23 y/o hitting .280 and slugging .455+ while playing top flight defense, you'd be talking about a future hall of famer. I mean, maybe you've set a bar a little high if that's your benchmark.

 

[CSF77]

I don't have a problem with you saying how you want to balance a lineup (though personal preference usually doesn't matter and in fact typically is a worse lineup); my problem is you saying what kind of player Russell is going to be in the future because he's a 23 y/o who's having moderate success. You realize the difference for Russell is a hit a week instead a K? If he goes 7/25 with an extra single he all of the sudden would have a line of .280/.350/.455 and he has your magical ops of .800 and would be an excellent defender. He's 23. At this age, Kris Bryant was four months in to his rookie season and we've seen the increase in his hitting.

If he was a 23 y/o hitting .280 and slugging .455+ while playing top flight defense, you'd be talking about a future hall of famer. I mean, maybe you've set a bar a little high if that's your benchmark.

Lets compare Baez and Russell:

Baez AB: 297
Russell AB: 319

Hits: Russell 77. Baez: 79

BB: Russell: 25 Baez: 17

So OBA is a wash right now. .305-.306 Like I said Baez gets his by hitting. Russell more so by BB.

Other factors: OPA: Baez .794 Russell: .722 SO's Baez is winning that battle. Power: Baez has the edge. Both can bash.

So honestly they are very close to each other. Baez gets his OBA by hitting more than Russell does.

But as a 8 hitter you want more contact. Now is either idea? no. Both SO too much. But out of the 2 of them you would rather have Baez before the pitcher just because you know he will be aggressive vs passive at the plate. Which you would rather have there.

 

[CSF77]

Ideal to me I would rather trade for a lead off. Then find a spot for Happ every day. SS you really have to go one or the other with Baez or Russell. The numbers are too close to really nit pick. With the over all line up pretty passive having a aggressive bat cleaning up BB's ahead of him makes more sense....as long as you don't lose those bonus runs at SS D. Which pushes the edge to Russell.

So it is debateable and honestly you would need many forms of data to back a argument.

 

[beckdawg]

What bugs me more than harping on young guys is the thought process. The cubs are going to trade Russell so they can play Baez daily at SS? Really? Baez is a .250/.294/.418 hitter over 1076 PAs and over 714.0 innings at SS he's 0 DRS and -0.8 UZR/150. If you prefer traditional statistics he has 14 errors over that time at SS. Russell is a .240/.312/.407 hitter over 1469 PAs with 2463.0 innings at SS where he is 43 DRS and 13.7 UZR/150. Again if you prefer traditional stats, Russell had 14 errors last year over 1262.2 innings at SS and only has 29 on his career.

In other words, if you want to argue Baez is a better hitter i'd say that's arguable but their defense isn't even close. People think Baez is amazing defensively because he makes some crazy plays but he's flat out no where near as consistent. Baez is also a full year older.

 

[beckdawg]

Also fwiw, since he debuted in 2015 Russell is second to Andrelton Simmons in DRS and 4th in UZR/150 behind Simmons, Lindor, and Crawford at SS. He's not just "good defensively" he's in the conversation for "the best."

 

[CSF77]

Also fwiw, since he debuted in 2015 Russell is second to Andrelton Simmons in DRS and 4th in UZR/150 behind Simmons, Lindor, and Crawford at SS. He's not just "good defensively" he's in the conversation for "the best."

fair enough

 

[brett05]

And for at least the past three weeks, Baez struggles with the routine plays. His defense reminds me often of Starlin Castro. If a trade is made, the value is in Russell, not Baez.

 

[Diehardfan]

And for at least the past three weeks, Baez struggles with the routine plays. His defense reminds me often of Starlin Castro. If a trade is made, the value is in Russell, not Baez.

I couldn't care less what the perceived value is....my eyes tell me who I want to keep. Russell was born to play shortstop....Baez is better at second maybe even at third. Don't get me wrong, I would not trade either guy but if forced to trade one....Russell is going nowhere.

 

[brett05]

I couldn't care less what the perceived value is....my eyes tell me who I want to keep. Russell was born to play shortstop....Baez is better at second maybe even at third. Don't get me wrong, I would not trade either guy but if forced to trade one....Russell is going nowhere.

And I get that. I agree that Russell is more valuable at this point. I think it's quite a lot over Baez. I'm pointing out that Baez doesn't carry the trade value he once did.

 

[anotheridiot]

And I get that. I agree that Russell is more valuable at this point. I think it's quite a lot over Baez. I'm pointing out that Baez doesn't carry the trade value he once did.

But who ends up costing more? Isnt that part of this? I dont think Javy settles for what Addison settles for. This is not Kane and Toews even contracts. Javy can play gold glove defense at any position on the field, while Addison is a shortstop. There are alot of factors. I really dont think this super sub was in Javy's mind when he was tatooing the MLB logo on his neck.

As far as Russell and his UZR whatever, this kid just makes everything look routine. He does not even look like he has a strong arm. When Javy lets one go from short left field, its on the line to Rizzo, Russells always have an arch to them. This is no way a bad thing to say about Russell, its just that he is so smooth it almost does not look like he is making a great play. I think that is why most underestimate him.

 

[brett05]

But who ends up costing more? Isnt that part of this? I dont think Javy settles for what Addison settles for. This is not Kane and Toews even contracts. Javy can play gold glove defense at any position on the field, while Addison is a shortstop. There are alot of factors. I really dont think this super sub was in Javy's mind when he was tatooing the MLB logo on his neck.

As far as Russell and his UZR whatever, this kid just makes everything look routine. He does not even look like he has a strong arm. When Javy lets one go from short left field, its on the line to Rizzo, Russells always have an arch to them. This is no way a bad thing to say about Russell, its just that he is so smooth it almost does not look like he is making a great play. I think that is why most underestimate him.

In trade today, Russell brings in more. At one time I think you could have gotten a TOR prospect for Baez. I think his value is down to a mid three to a low end 2 for SP. Baez makes the great plays, and then gets lazy at times on the routine. Just ask that iPad from mid July or the easy double play ball from Saturdays Nats game that he throws away.

 

[SilenceS]

And I get that. I agree that Russell is more valuable at this point. I think it's quite a lot over Baez. I'm pointing out that Baez doesn't carry the trade value he once did.

Almost a 3 fWAr for the paat two years for a part time player. lol

 

[greg23]

Back to the original question....just don't see happ as an everyday 2b as his body type; feet and thus d looks awful for a middle inf position.

He looks like a below avg c.f. as well and is likely best suited in lf

His positional versatility is a plus but starting 130+ games at 2b would kill the staff

 

[brett05]

Almost a 3 fWAr for the paat two years for a part time player. lol

142 games last year and 90% of the games this year...Yep, pinch hitter all the way...LOL