[A] Western Conference Quarterfinals - Game 1: CHI @ PHX

Ton

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The Chicago Blackhawks will head to Phoenix for their Western Conference Quarter-finals playoff match-up against the Coyotes. The season series did not go well for the Blackhawks, who won the first contest with Jason Labarbera between the pipes and then dropping the next three straight with Mike Smith in net. The season series concluded with a 1-2-1 record against the reviving franchise while scoring 9 goals and conceding 12, not including the shootout winner in the 3rd game of the series.



TEAM MATCH-UP



CHI_PHX_SEASON_SERIES.png




Although the Blackhawks (45-26-11, 101 pts) technically have a better record than Phoenix (42-27-13, 97 pts), the Coyotes will have home ice advantage due to the fact that they won their division, vaulting them up to the 3rd seed.



The gap between offensive production is wide with the Blackhawks standing at 6th place (2.94) in G/G and the Coyotes at 18th place (2.56) as the regular season concluded. However, the tables turn when comparing their overall defensive performance as Chicago drops all the way to 22nd (2.82) in the league in GA/G while Phoenix sits pretty in 5th place (2.37) with the stellar play of Mike Smith coupled with Dave Tippett's defensive style.



Of course while the Coyotes don't have the firepower that the Blackhawks have on the bench to take over a game, they do have a solid team structure that will make it difficult for the Hawks to penetrate.



Both teams have struggled on the power-play all year. The Blackhawks (26th, 15.2%) have been abysmal at times with the extra man but the Coyotes (29th, 13.6%) have not fared any better with atrocious production from their special teams unit. On the penalty kill, Chicago (27th, 78.1%) started to get rolling at the end of the regular season but still pales in comparison to Phoenix (8th, 85.5%) and the success they sustained throughout the season.



Regardless of their regular season stats, it's quite clear that the most important clue to solving this playoff match-up lies within their season series battle (displayed above), which tends to differ from their regular season totals.



EDGE: PHOENIX COYOTES



GOALTENDERS



CRAWFORD_SMITH_SEASON_SERIES.png




Corey Crawford saw his struggles throughout the season, even to a point where Joel Quenneville decided to ride Ray Emery for a decent stretch until he fell off the horse as well. Phoenix simply did not have that issue, Mike Smith was the horse and the team had no issues riding him all the way into the post-season.



Although Crawford did struggle for a portion of the season, he seems to have regained his rookie season form as the Blackhawks rode him during the last stretch of the season where he came up large to help the team clinch the 6th seed without Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith.



Here's the bad news: Corey struggled mightily against the Coyotes all season. His numbers are atrocious when compared to Mike Smith and he was even pulled twice in favor of Ray Emery, eventually forcing Joel Quenneville to opt for Emery in the final game of the season series.



The equation is simple, the Blackhawks need Corey Crawford to be better against the Coyotes if they want any chance to win. Much better.



EDGE: PHOENIX COYOTES



DEFENSEMAN



It's hard to gauge how well the Blackhawks will play defensively considering the effect that Johnny Oduya has had on the back-end since being acquired as well as the addition of Dylan Olsen.



With Keith Yandle, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Michal Rozsival, Rostislav Klesla, Derek Morris, and Adrian Aucoin, you'd find a difficult time presenting an solid argument that the Coyotes group is better than the Blackhawks defensive core. With Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Johnny Oduya, Nick Leddy, Dylan Olsen, and Niklas Hjalmarsson I think it's pretty clear who has the deeper crop of defenseman going into the series regardless of what happened earlier in the season.



At first glance, names on the Blackhawks paper have a clear cut advantage in regards to puck movement and overall offense, but there has also been a development of physical snarl since the addition of Dylan Olsen along with Niklas Hjalmarsson returning (and showing his physical presence as well), of course Brent Seabrook tops the cake on either team when it comes to overall physical attributes and two-way play.



EDGE: CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS



FORWARDS



Although the season series says otherwise, it's obvious that the Blackhawks have more fire power upfront than the Coyotes from top to bottom. Even with Jonathan Toews out of the line-up, the Blackhawks were able to score an average of 2.54 goals per game, which is just shy of the Coyotes season average which clocked in at 2.56 G/G.



With Toews expected to be injected into a top-six crop of forwards including Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, Patrick Sharp, Marcus Kruger, and Viktor Stalberg, there is simply no comparison on the Phoenix bench.



Taking it a step further, the Blackhawks third line of Bickell, Bolland, and Shaw have been on fire lately. If they can continue their production they will certainly give the Coyotes top line fits of their own. Let's flash back to years prior where Dave Bolland was able to dominate other teams top lines in the post-season. Adding Andrew Shaw to the mix only deepens the shut-down ability on that line and could vault the Blackhawks past the Coyotes in this series on that fact alone.



EDGE: CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS



GAME ONE PREDICTION



Let's get real here, home ice advantage means close to nothing in this series considering Blackhawks fans seem to pack Jobing.com Arena anyway. If anything the Blackhawks should feel right at home as they visit Phoenix to start the series. Considering the intimidation factor should be null void, there are other factors to consider that the Blackhawks may need to overcome in order to take the first game of the series.



Phoenix has been playing playoff hockey for the last 10 games or so. Their record during this time? 8-0-2. This is not to discredit the Blackhawks quest to lock the 6th seed, but it was quite obvious that the last few games of the regular season were more of a rest stop than a triumphant run into the post-season.



Along with that, the Coyotes have been fairly healthy heading into the playoffs. Adrian Aucoin ended the season with a day-to-day groin injury but he is slotted to return anyway. Radim Vrbata also came with his struggles in March missing a handful of games but has returned to end the season. Meanwhile the Blackhawks have had some trouble ending the season with Jonathan Toews, Daniel Carcillo, Sami Lepisto, and Steve Montador missing significant time along with spotty appearances by Dave Bolland, Marcus Kruger, Jamal Mayers, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Ray Emery. In fact, this team has only played a handful of games with a healthy line-up this year, whether this is counted as a positive or a negative is up to you to decide.



Another note to consider is that these teams have not met each other for exactly 2 months and an added day. While most stats through the season series could be used as a benchmark for how these two teams will fare during this series, it's also unfair to place all your eggs in that basket considering all the changes that have been made since they last played each other.



GAME ONE PREDICTION:



Head says: CHI 2, PHX 4 (J. Toews, P. Kane, D. Langkow, L. Korpikoski, O. Ekman-Larsson, R. Whitney)

Heart says: CHI 3, PHX 1 (J. Toews, P. Kane, V. Stalberg, D. Langkow)



041212hawksvscoyotesg.gif


Courtesy of Al Sharpton's Nephew



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MassHavoc

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No shootout, no chance for Phoenix. Hawks roll.
 

Pez68

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Home ice advantage for Phoenix, playing against Chicago, is completely irrelevant. That place is likely going to be 50/50 Hawks/Coyotes fans.



What's with the "Edge: Phoenix Coyotes" stuff?
 

PatrickSharpRules

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I still can't think of an opponent I would like more than Phoenix.
 

Ton

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Dammit this wasn't suppose to be posted until later tonight... it's OK... I will still do the rest of it.
 

Ton

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And Pez, it just means the Coyotes have the edge when it comes down to those categories... so far that includes the series match-up and goaltending.
 

Ton

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I still can't think of an opponent I would like more than Phoenix.



I could... I might be the only one around here that's slightly worried.
 

R K

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And Pez, it just means the Coyotes have the edge when it comes down to those categories... so far that includes the series match-up and goaltending.



Last two games and even the 2nd were without a healthy Toews. Adavantage Coyotes? Team? Really? Maybe I didn't read if careful enough.



The only advantage they've shown to have IMO is goal tending.
 

Samurai

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Apropos of nothing, but some of us just want a toasted waffle...



jhcga.gif
 

R K

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I could... I might be the only one around here that's slightly worried.



If the Hawks play as they have the last month without Toews I'm sorry I just don't worry. The Drive, experience, and now healthy team is on their side.



I will be very disappointed in this team if they don't play like they can. That's the ONLY reason they lose this series.
 

Ton

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Holy crap, wait for me to finish the damn article! Phoenix won the season series, they had the edge in every stat, simple as that... there are still a few more categories I haven't done yet.



Toews played in every game, the last game of the series was the game after Toews was beat up by the Sharks... otherwise he was fine.
 

Pez68

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And Pez, it just means the Coyotes have the edge when it comes down to those categories... so far that includes the series match-up and goaltending.



Gotcha. I thought it looked incomplete.
<
 

R K

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Holy crap, wait for me to finish the damn article! Phoenix won the season series, they had the edge in every stat, simple as that... there are still a few more categories I haven't done yet.



Toews played in every game, the last game of the series was the game after Toews was beat up by the Sharks... otherwise he was fine.



Should have finished it before you put half of it on there. Last game was also 2 months ago.
 

Ton

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I didn't mean to put half of it on there, I scheduled it to be posted tonight as I would have finished it... but I put the wrong time in and it posted early. Oops!
 

supraman

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Really Ton, Kruger over Shaw in your forwards section?
 

PatrickSharpRules

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If the attendance in Phoenix is how we are expecting it to be I am very confident for our game 3 standing on Tuesday, which is my birthday.
 

Rex

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Melrose picks Hawks - Pens for the finals. Pens in the finals.



Melrose seems to be the only one I've read that even takes us out of the first round.



He must love the mullets.
 

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