Anyone Still think Russell and Schwarber will be On the Cubs in 2019

[CSF77]

Why are you explaining UZR/DRS to me? I know what it is. My question is you're suggesting Simmons is twice as good, but in real baseball terms what does that mean? You're talking about ~8 runs over the course of a season. That's not that big of a difference. Also how is April-june cherry picking? The only reason I cut it off at the end of June was he got hurt at the start of July and the entire point of this was that injuries effected his performance.

He is hitting .258 and his career line is .243. That doesn’t make him starting quality.

If he was hitting .280 then this would be moot.

Regardless cubs are 9-1 with Murphy starting at 2B. Based off that the Cubs are better now than before he came.

On Simmons vs Russell. Honestly im not in a spot to look it up ATM. And if that is true. 8 runs per season saved. Then what is the value of a D upgrade then? Again it seems to me that playing for the lead then enhancing the D late inning is sound... oh ya that is what Joe has done.

 

[beckdawg]

He is hitting .258 and his career line is .243. That doesn’t make him starting quality.

If he was hitting .280 then this would be moot.

Regardless cubs are 9-1 with Murphy starting at 2B. Based off that the Cubs are better now than before he came.

On Simmons vs Russell. Honestly im not in a spot to look it up ATM. And if that is true. 8 runs per season saved. Then what is the value of a D upgrade then? Again it seems to me that playing for the lead then enhancing the D late inning is sound... oh ya that is what Joe has done.

What was Baez career line before he turned 25? .255/.300/.427 My issue with your stance is you allow no room for growth on a guy who's clearly still developing. Why do you think it's useful citing stats that include him playing as a clearly overmatched 21 and 22 year old? You can't just say "that's what he is." The numbers this year are entirely different. He had a 24.9% K rate his first 3 years here. His K rate this year is 20.7% and that's if you include the time he was horribly dinged.

If you want to argue it's premature to say that his April-June results from 2018 hold over a full season fine but you can't just wash them away. He's shown over 277 PAs he can hit .285/.355/.407 and if you can do that over nearly 300 PAs then chances are you're good enough to do it over a full season. And again I'd add in the fact that there appears to be more than that. It wasn't just June he was hot. He started out slow in April but in May/June over 182 PAs he hit .302/.370/.444.

Even if you're highly dubious of him, what sense of urgency is there to deal him? Why would you not make absolute certain that he isn't the player I'm talking about? Given where they are right now I imagine it's highly likely the cubs are picking up Hamels' 2019 option which means you're looking at a starting 5 of him, Lester, Hendricks, Darvish and Q who has looked a lot better his last few starts. You don't need to deal him for pitching. And they already have enough bats as is. Morrow is under contract next year and the bullpen is fairly solid as is.

 

[garapp]

Murphy, like all starting position players, catches over 90% of all balls hit his way.

With the way he hits,that's adequate enough for me

 

[CSF77]

What was Baez career line before he turned 25? .255/.300/.427 My issue with your stance is you allow no room for growth on a guy who's clearly still developing. Why do you think it's useful citing stats that include him playing as a clearly overmatched 21 and 22 year old? You can't just say "that's what he is." The numbers this year are entirely different. He had a 24.9% K rate his first 3 years here. His K rate this year is 20.7% and that's if you include the time he was horribly dinged.

If you want to argue it's premature to say that his April-June results from 2018 hold over a full season fine but you can't just wash them away. He's shown over 277 PAs he can hit .285/.355/.407 and if you can do that over nearly 300 PAs then chances are you're good enough to do it over a full season. And again I'd add in the fact that there appears to be more than that. It wasn't just June he was hot. He started out slow in April but in May/June over 182 PAs he hit .302/.370/.444.

Even if you're highly dubious of him, what sense of urgency is there to deal him? Why would you not make absolute certain that he isn't the player I'm talking about? Given where they are right now I imagine it's highly likely the cubs are picking up Hamels' 2019 option which means you're looking at a starting 5 of him, Lester, Hendricks, Darvish and Q who has looked a lot better his last few starts. You don't need to deal him for pitching. And they already have enough bats as is. Morrow is under contract next year and the bullpen is fairly solid as is.

It has little to do with him improving or not. It has more to do with line up construction. Murphy impacts this line up more. The impact holds more over all value than the loss of D.

Even then when you are blowing out teams 8-1 who cares. The problem has been the games that the O stalls vs the games that got away. Mills had the only blow out and that was a game that Murphy sat.

So I’m kinda going to point scoreboard here. Sorry

 

[Diehardfan]

To paraphrase from the Matrix movies, there are levels of adequate we are prepared to accept...

Like continuing to hit about .350 out of the lead off slot......covers a lot of warts.

 

[fatbeard]

Like continuing to hit about .350 out of the lead off slot......covers a lot of warts.

Sure does, but Murphy will be 34 next year. How long does it last? The Cubs let Fowler walk at 30 and had much worse options in the OF than they've currently got in the IF.

 

[CSF77]

Sure does, but Murphy will be 34 next year. How long does it last? The Cubs let Fowler walk at 30 and had much worse options in the OF than they've currently got in the IF.

That is a very objective point.

If they end up trying to absorb Hamels in 2019 anything could happen. Add to it they may end up flipping bad deals to rid Chatwood. This should end up a interesting offseason regardless of the results. They need a stable closer. Maybe Strop as they have a option. Do they start Smyly or does he replace Wilson?

 

[beckdawg]

It has little to do with him improving or not. It has more to do with line up construction. Murphy impacts this line up more. The impact holds more over all value than the loss of D.

Even then when you are blowing out teams 8-1 who cares. The problem has been the games that the O stalls vs the games that got away. Mills had the only blow out and that was a game that Murphy sat.

So I’m kinda going to point scoreboard here. Sorry

So what you're suggesting is they keep Murphy of all things? If they are going to do that why trade Russell? Trade Happ. You have Heyward who can play CF and RF and Almora to cover your needs there and Zobrist can shift to the 4th OF slot with Bryant also filling in in RF. That allows you flexibility to play Baez all over the infield on given days.

 

[anotheridiot]

So what you're suggesting is they keep Murphy of all things? If they are going to do that why trade Russell? Trade Happ. You have Heyward who can play CF and RF and Almora to cover your needs there and Zobrist can shift to the 4th OF slot with Bryant also filling in in RF. That allows you flexibility to play Baez all over the infield on given days.

Heyward is a great right fielder, he is really not as good in center. I think Theo figured that out when he brought Fowler back. He is not bad by any means, but his value is in right. KB would prefer to play center if in fact they do bring back either Russell or Murphy and want to keep Bote in the mix.

The thing you usually hear is a players position. Javy plays 3B 2B or SS like he is a SS. Any move with Russell is solidifying Javy at SS

I think Murphy might end up being a series MVP in the postseason, if he is, how do you not keep him around?

When these big dollars start rearing their ugly head, is Russell really someone you want to pay double digit millions to?

There are a few scenarios I see happening.

Still hopeful Heyward opts out and goes. Javy accepts a rizzo type extension buying up arby years.

 

[Omeletpants]

Heyward is a great right fielder, he is really not as good in center.

Agreed. He looks clumsey out there. Not natural

 

[CSF77]

Agreed. He looks clumsey out there. Not natural

I wouldn't go clumsy. one bad play doesn't deem that. Adequate is closer to the truth.

If you were looking at pure D

Happ LF 108 wRC+
Almora CF 97 wRC+
Heyward RF 101 wRC+
Bryant 3B 131 wRC+
Russell SS 85 wRC+
Baez 2B 137 wRC+
Rizzo 1B 127 wRC+
Contreras C 109 wRC+

Zobrist 130 wRC+
Murphy 135 wRC+
Schwarber 113 wRC+
Bote 103 wRC+
LaStella 88 wRC+
Caratini 70 wRC+

Sometimes the answers are in plain sight on why some players are not starting.

 

[CSF77]

So what you're suggesting is they keep Murphy of all things? If they are going to do that why trade Russell? Trade Happ. You have Heyward who can play CF and RF and Almora to cover your needs there and Zobrist can shift to the 4th OF slot with Bryant also filling in in RF. That allows you flexibility to play Baez all over the infield on given days.

Look above and rethink that. Again I question why you are even going here? 135=>85 is too much of a gulf to justify anything.

 

[CSF77]

I’m pretty sure the way Joe is dealing is Murph, Baez, Rizzo and Bryant are locks.

Heyward is injured but in this bunch.

Zo he is resting when he is off vs anything else. He is a starter.

Russell is late inning D.

Almora late inning D and will start vs LHSP

Bote gives Bryant a day off. Kinda a luxury atm.

Happ should see action in LF/CF and RF. He is pretty league avg right now as a player.


If I would retool things in the offseason it would be at CF. I need a lead off CF. Then things would settle into place after. As long as a hitter is putting up close to 100 wRC+ I really have no issue with getting playing time. 85 I take issue with.

 

[DanTown]

The issue with trading Russell is what do you think you're going to get for him? He's battled injuries and had too little consistent success for teams with young, controllable SP (the only need the Cubs have to trade for) to want three years of Russell at arbitration. I mean, think of all the people who said trade Russell for Machado and the Cubs did far better trading whatever they gave up for Murphy.

As this season (and every season) proves, depth matters. Some guys have great years, some guys fall off. Considering the Cubs have one regular who is in his late 30s (Zobrist) and other guy is a rental that will probably not be retained (Murphy), there is no reason to just trade a guy to trade him.

I'll assume the Cubs aren't going to do anything drastic in FA: my guess is they decline the option on Hamels and then resign him to a more friendly 1/10 deal with some money left for bonuses. They keep the young guys around and if Murphy wants a one year deal, I'd imagine the Cubs would be inclined but they won't go two years (his age + lack of position truly limits the time here). Yu has TJ and misses 2019. Your 2019 Cubs would be

With Murphy (* starter, # platoon)
IF - Murphy*, Baez*, Russell#, Rizzo*, LaStella, Bote
OF - Schwarber#, Happ#, Almora#
IF/OF - Bryant*, Zobrist#
C - Contreras*, Defensive C

SP - Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Quintana
5th spot/RP - Chatwood, Montgomery, Smyly
RP - Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Edwards

Maybe they go after a power lefty arm out of the pen (Britton, Miller) and that should probably do it.

You trade Russell if you really believe in Hoerner being a regular by 2020 because you trade Russell and then Zobrist retires and now all of the sudden you have no IF depth at all. And as much as I love Javy this year, this isn't a guy that I just say "pencil in 150 starts and a 5-6 WAR season". And again, you need Russell to come back and show value to have trade value.

 

[beckdawg]

Heyward is a great right fielder, he is really not as good in center. I think Theo figured that out when he brought Fowler back. He is not bad by any means, but his value is in right. KB would prefer to play center if in fact they do bring back either Russell or Murphy and want to keep Bote in the mix.

The thing you usually hear is a players position. Javy plays 3B 2B or SS like he is a SS. Any move with Russell is solidifying Javy at SS

I think Murphy might end up being a series MVP in the postseason, if he is, how do you not keep him around?

When these big dollars start rearing their ugly head, is Russell really someone you want to pay double digit millions to?

There are a few scenarios I see happening.

Still hopeful Heyward opts out and goes. Javy accepts a rizzo type extension buying up arby years.

I'm not saying you start heyward in CF every single day. My point is the main perk of Happ is that he can play CF sparingly but the cubs have a very capable back up in Heyward. I'd imagine typically you play Heyward in RF anyways and depending on the day you look at Zobrist in LF or Schwarber given the scenario I laid out. But the benefit here is that on days with bad match ups for Almora you can play Heyward in CF.

As for Russell getting double digit millions.... he's probably going to make $6 mil in arb. He's not going to approach double digits unless he has a crazy season next year until the final year of arbitration. I would estimate 6 next year, 8 in 2020 and 10-11 in 2021.

As for solidifying Baez at SS, he's not better than Russell there. If he were he'd already be there.

 

[beckdawg]

You trade Russell if you really believe in Hoerner being a regular by 2020

I don't really agree with this. You don't make moves based on prospects who aren't in the majors on a contending team.I mean you're obviously saying that's the only reason you would trade Russell here but I really don't think it's a consideration.

Either way, I think people are going nuts because Russell hasn't broken out to their linking yet. But Baez is a perfect example of why you wouldn't deal russell yet. There's also the fact that you really only need get through 2019 because Zobrist is gone then and I think La Stella may be as well.

 

[fatbeard]

Javy Baez
1390 MLB innings at SS
+3 DRS, .5 UZR/150

Addison Russell
3446 MLB innings at SS
+58 DRS, 7.5 UZR/150

Since 2015, only 8 SS in baseball have a higher defensive score than Russell, and most of those guys have at least 1,400 more innings than him (a full MLB season). People just have no idea how much value he provides. There is no way in hell the Cubs trade him.

 

[CSF77]

I don't really agree with this. You don't make moves based on prospects who aren't in the majors on a contending team.I mean you're obviously saying that's the only reason you would trade Russell here but I really don't think it's a consideration.

Either way, I think people are going nuts because Russell hasn't broken out to their linking yet. But Baez is a perfect example of why you wouldn't deal russell yet. There's also the fact that you really only need get through 2019 because Zobrist is gone then and I think La Stella may be as well.

Baez hovered high 90’s wRC+ for a few years. Russell low 90’s. They were close but Baez always had explosive power coming up and had to tone it down until this year. Russell is a 20 HR bat at best. I don’t see him having a consistent power game.

Baez took the next step but going in we all knew that he had 30 HR power and this is more so him establishing himself because the talent was there.

Russell no. That would be over estimated and great if he becomes this superstar player. I just don’t see that level of talent.

Now what is he worth: depends on the current market value as always. If SS is a hot ticket item then his value goes up. If it is a cold market then it goes down.

Manny on the market makes Russell a cheap alternate. That is it. That is desirable but only if a team has a pressing need.

 

[beckdawg]

Baez hovered high 90’s wRC+ for a few years. Russell low 90’s. They were close but Baez always had explosive power coming up and had to tone it down until this year. Russell is a 20 HR bat at best. I don’t see him having a consistent power game

You're missing the point. Russell doesn't need to break out power wise. He's always been a high walk rate guy. The point here is he's finally found a way to remove the K's from his game that dogged his average. I mean obviously you don't believe in the first half of his season this year but he was hitting .290 or w/e. You put that together with an 8-105 walk rate and the guy is going to be valuable. Again that's if you believe in this year but the fact that Baez broke out illustrates people can be close to breaking out but not have it all put together.

 

[CSF77]

Javy Baez
1390 MLB innings at SS
+3 DRS, .5 UZR/150

Addison Russell
3446 MLB innings at SS
+58 DRS, 7.5 UZR/150

Since 2015, only 8 SS in baseball have a higher defensive score than Russell, and most of those guys have at least 1,400 more innings than him (a full MLB season). People just have no idea how much value he provides. There is no way in hell the Cubs trade him.

That is only 1 factor. 85 wRC+ is another.


I’ve said this before: if he is hitting .280 you can never trade him. In wRC+ a 100 player is league avg. then you tack on a huge D plus that spikes his over all value. But when you are 15% below a avg player then you D has to make you equal first before pushing over.

Murphy is opposite. 135 wRC+ but his DEF drags it down.

But with the way Joe manages he can push wRC+ early game and DEF late if they have the lead. He has to score runs. Holding runs has more to do with the pitching. DEF supports pitching. While wRC+ is more independent.