Anyone Still think Russell and Schwarber will be On the Cubs in 2019

[Ari Bear]

You lose a lead off if he leaves.

Center Fielders

Gregor Blanco (35)
Rajai Davis (38)
Craig Gentry (35)
Carlos Gomez (33)
Jon Jay (33)
Adam Jones (33)
Leonys Martin (31)
Cameron Maybin (32)
Andrew McCutchen (32)
A.J. Pollock (31)
Denard Span (35) – $12MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

Almora is better than all of them.

Second Basemen

Asdrubal Cabrera (33)
Daniel Descalso (32)
Brian Dozier (32)
Logan Forsythe (32)
Marwin Gonzalez (30)
Josh Harrison (31) — $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Ian Kinsler (37)
DJ LeMahieu (30)
Jed Lowrie (35)
Daniel Murphy (34)
Eduardo Nuñez (32) — $4MM player option with a $2MM buyout
Cliff Pennington (35)
Jose Reyes (36)
Sean Rodriguez (34)
Eric Sogard (33)
Neil Walker (33)

common theme is 30 plus here. But Murphy is the best bat. best buy would be Marwin Gonzalez. He is a SH but I don't think that he is a upgrade to Russell/Baez.

Market looks pretty bad here that it might inflate Russell or Happ. You really lack established youth.

But best in market:

C: Yasmani Grandal (30)
1B: Matt Adams (30)
2B: Daniel Murphy 34
SS: Manny Machado (26)
3B: Josh Donaldson (33)
LF: Michael Brantley (32) (kinda like him as a lead off if they trade Schwarber)
CF: Leonys Martin (31)
RF: Bryce Harper (26)

SP:
Madison Bumgarner (29) — $12MM club option (not hitting market)
Clayton Kershaw (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $65MM
Dallas Keuchel (31)

So there are going to be plenty of talent out there in pitching this year. Then Harper and Manny being by far the best hitting talent out there. Q IMO has deflated value. J.A. Happ is available and is 2nd tier.

Looking it over nice chips are Happ and Schwarber. If they go after Brantley to lead off in LF and keep Almora in CF that way both can swap lead off in 19. I'm kinda ok with that. SP is deflated so Q looks like a poor chip right now. SS Manny, Eduardo Escobar with 121 wRC+ are better than Russell. Jody Mercer IMO same tier as Russell. 90 wRC+. 2B is deflated.
murphy could end up catching on with a NL team because of this. 1B shit but you can plug a bat like Beltre there and get away with it.

Nice! You did gathered up some lofty info there. I copied and save it in my files! Thank for the info!

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Depends on what Murphys agent and their demands. I say 3years or less. If not let him go. We definetly could use his bat though.

Murphy is going to get 3/$60 mil or thereabouts from an AL team. It makes zero sense for the the Cubs to do that. I wouldn't even consider it. You want a big bat in the infield? Go sign Machado. I'm pretty convinced he'll improve at SS. He played at a very high level there in the minors.

 

[fatbeard]

Again not really about that. More to do with reloading their pitching. The fact there is arguement means he has trade value.

On Happ I’m good with him being traded also.

I would place in the system Thompson a sure thing as a back end starter. He has competed at every level and adjusts quickly to the new challenge. Rucker is a pretty close 2nd in a guy that can step onto the big stage. Neither are TOR.

So system wise this is a growing concern.

Next year they are good as long as they pull Hamels opt. They have Smyly also so they really don’t need a close arm. But with the depth that they have they could sell Q then use Smyly as a #5. Then Q becomes a trade chip to reload on pitching.

So I see next year as they have options available. Bote slides into Baez’s role of MI. If they trade Russell and opt to start Zo at 2B and use Bote to free up Zo or Bryant it is not a bad choice.

Then you have Q and Russell as chips to get back prospect pitching depth.

If they can get 1 arm ready by 2020 they are in good shape. Thinking it over if Smyly works out they could extend giving 2 longer term arms. That point Hendrick’s becomes a potential 3rd long term. But they need to replace Hamels and Lester. Thompson and Rucker are a flat downgrade. So you really want at least one higher end prospect coming back and let the other one go into spring competition.

Over all they are going to have some issues happening soon and being co-dependent via F/A is not the wisest of choices. This year returned poor results. Having a weak farm caused it.

So you've picked up Hamels' option, traded Quintana, and are replacing him with Smyly. Now the 2019 Cubs, still expected to contend for a World Series, are heading into the season with not one but two SPs entering their age 35 seasons (Lester and Hamels). How well is your roster prepared if one of them throws up on himself like Hamels spent the first half of 2018 doing? Well, there's Montgomery, but he's only good as a SP in small doses and that's why he's at his best as a swing man in the pen. And then there's Chatwood, who may or may not be LARPing Rick Ankiel again. Oh, and you've got Darvish coming off what was basically a season-long injury, and throw Smyly in that boat as well except his "basically" was an "actually" and the guy hasn't thrown an MLB pitch since 2016 but for some reason has been anointed by the forum as Mr. Reliable Starter Who We Know Is Going To Return To A Form He Never Really Had because "reasons". So here's your plan, in a nutshell:

Darvish, 32: What could go wrong...again?
Lester, 35: Please just make it to the next gas station!
Hendricks, 29: Hey, this guy's good!
Hamels, 35: Because "unsustainably good" can only last forever, right?
Smyly, 30: Jesus, take the wheel!

Now that's not a plan. That's a hope. I get what you're trying to do here in looking towards the future, but that rotation is about one short hair away from disaster if anything goes wrong.

 

[CSF77]

Murphy is going to get 3/$60 mil or thereabouts from an AL team. It makes zero sense for the the Cubs to do that. I wouldn't even consider it. You want a big bat in the infield? Go sign Machado. I'm pretty convinced he'll improve at SS. He played at a very high level there in the minors.

Well Brantley would cost less and sets them up also.

Brantley LF
Baez 2B
Rizzo 1B
Bryant 3B
Heyward RF
Contreras C
Russell SS
Pitcher
Almora CF

trade Schwarber and Happ for pitching prospects
Zo’s Last year on bench with Bote and LaStella. Pretty solid flex

Pull Hamels opt
Smyly in the pen replacing Wilson
Maples in as a closer in training
Pull Strop’s opt back up closer again

Now it is basically the same team but Brantley stabilizes the lead off and you retain one of the top D’s in baseball while yielding a few needed prospect arms

 

[CSF77]

So you've picked up Hamels' option, traded Quintana, and are replacing him with Smyly. Now the 2019 Cubs, still expected to contend for a World Series, are heading into the season with not one but two SPs entering their age 35 seasons (Lester and Hamels). How well is your roster prepared if one of them throws up on himself like Hamels spent the first half of 2018 doing? Well, there's Montgomery, but he's only good as a SP in small doses and that's why he's at his best as a swing man in the pen. And then there's Chatwood, who may or may not be LARPing Rick Ankiel again. Oh, and you've got Darvish coming off what was basically a season-long injury, and throw Smyly in that boat as well except his "basically" was an "actually" and the guy hasn't thrown an MLB pitch since 2016 but for some reason has been anointed by the forum as Mr. Reliable Starter Who We Know Is Going To Return To A Form He Never Really Had because "reasons". So here's your plan, in a nutshell:

Darvish, 32: What could go wrong...again?
Lester, 35: Please just make it to the next gas station!
Hendricks, 29: Hey, this guy's good!
Hamels, 35: Because "unsustainably good" can only last forever, right?
Smyly, 30: Jesus, take the wheel!

Now that's not a plan. That's a hope. I get what you're trying to do here in looking towards the future, but that rotation is about one short hair away from disaster if anything goes wrong.

After looking over F/A Q has shit return value. LH starting is deep. Russell would return nothing. But 2B and LF are the 2 weakest spots for FA. 1B also if a team looks at Schwarber as a 1B dump.


Add to it Smyly was pitching at AAA. Should be on the team soon. Darvish was a fracture. Mills has the exact same issue and it was hard to detect also. Guess what never would have known.

Have some faith.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Injuries would worry me with Brantley and I'm not trading Schwarber. I would like to see them move on from Russell which makes Machado a good fit.

 

[beckdawg]

Injuries would worry me with Brantley and I'm not trading Schwarber. I would like to see them move on from Russell which makes Machado a good fit.

This would possibly be the only reason that I'd personally consider making the move but even then IDK. To me the idea is you're eventually going to consider Bryant as an OF according to what I've heard scouts say. That's not to say he's bad defensively at 3B now but long term they seem to think he's an OFer. Not to mention the fact can you imagine Baez at 3B, Machado at short and russell at 2B or some grouping of those 3? Add in Rizzo and you would legitimately have 4 potential gold glove infielders.

I just keep coming back to Happ honestly. He's a very good player but he's the weakest in development thus far and doesn't offer you as much without his offense. If you can make the Machado move I like the infield with those 3 and an OF of Schwarber/Heyward/Bryant vs RHP and Bryant/Almora/Heyward vs LHP with the obvious flexibility to move guys around to suit days off and what not. You'd also have a ridiculous amount of injury insurance because you'd have basically every position covered 2-3 times over.

 

[anotheridiot]

Murphy is going to get 3/$60 mil or thereabouts from an AL team. It makes zero sense for the the Cubs to do that. I wouldn't even consider it. You want a big bat in the infield? Go sign Machado. I'm pretty convinced he'll improve at SS. He played at a very high level there in the minors.

Machado's problem was filling out his frame, slowing down and getting too big for the position.

 

[anotheridiot]

The other thing that changes alot of opinions here is if Russell goes all LaStella on the team when he does not start in the playoffs. Its pretty much the rate of upset Schwarber should be for sitting so much. That puts a push on the side to deal them.

 

[anotheridiot]

The issue with trading Russell is what do you think you're going to get for him? He's battled injuries and had too little consistent success for teams with young, controllable SP (the only need the Cubs have to trade for) to want three years of Russell at arbitration. I mean, think of all the people who said trade Russell for Machado and the Cubs did far better trading whatever they gave up for Murphy.

As this season (and every season) proves, depth matters. Some guys have great years, some guys fall off. Considering the Cubs have one regular who is in his late 30s (Zobrist) and other guy is a rental that will probably not be retained (Murphy), there is no reason to just trade a guy to trade him.

I'll assume the Cubs aren't going to do anything drastic in FA: my guess is they decline the option on Hamels and then resign him to a more friendly 1/10 deal with some money left for bonuses. They keep the young guys around and if Murphy wants a one year deal, I'd imagine the Cubs would be inclined but they won't go two years (his age + lack of position truly limits the time here). Yu has TJ and misses 2019. Your 2019 Cubs would be

With Murphy (* starter, # platoon)
IF - Murphy*, Baez*, Russell#, Rizzo*, LaStella, Bote
OF - Schwarber#, Happ#, Almora#
IF/OF - Bryant*, Zobrist#
C - Contreras*, Defensive C

SP - Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Quintana
5th spot/RP - Chatwood, Montgomery, Smyly
RP - Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Edwards

Maybe they go after a power lefty arm out of the pen (Britton, Miller) and that should probably do it.

You trade Russell if you really believe in Hoerner being a regular by 2020 because you trade Russell and then Zobrist retires and now all of the sudden you have no IF depth at all. And as much as I love Javy this year, this isn't a guy that I just say "pencil in 150 starts and a 5-6 WAR season". And again, you need Russell to come back and show value to have trade value.

Declining the option on hammels comes with a 6 million dollar buyout, so you tack on the 10 you want to give him and you are still paying him 16, why mess with the 4 million savings when he is your best pitcher?

 

[anotheridiot]

I'm not saying you start heyward in CF every single day. My point is the main perk of Happ is that he can play CF sparingly but the cubs have a very capable back up in Heyward. I'd imagine typically you play Heyward in RF anyways and depending on the day you look at Zobrist in LF or Schwarber given the scenario I laid out. But the benefit here is that on days with bad match ups for Almora you can play Heyward in CF.

As for Russell getting double digit millions.... he's probably going to make $6 mil in arb. He's not going to approach double digits unless he has a crazy season next year until the final year of arbitration. I would estimate 6 next year, 8 in 2020 and 10-11 in 2021.

As for solidifying Baez at SS, he's not better than Russell there. If he were he'd already be there.

Russell is there because Baez can play third and second and they never asked Russell to move anywhere, probably because they think his ego is too big to play anywhere but SS. You just have a replacement at SS with Baez, with more range, more arm, more speed to run to center field for popups. They also had the excuse that Baez was scuffling at the plate and would not be playing every day. That has all changed. Baez turned into the MVP candidate guys like Kasper expected from Russell. Baez is cocky and backs it up, Russell is just plain cocky.

 

[beckdawg]

Russell is there because Baez can play third and second and they never asked Russell to move anywhere, probably because they think his ego is too big to play anywhere but SS.

? he started his career playing 2B when Castro was still with the team. What's that have anything to do with his "ego"? Also, I've literally never heard Russell say anything that would indicate he's "cocky."

 

[SilenceS]

Honest, Russell hasnt been the same since the domestic abuse charge. Baez was never on the saber guys radar. I know 3 posters in here that swore Baez could never be a star.

 

[beckdawg]

Honest, Russell hasnt been the same since the domestic abuse charge. Baez was never on the saber guys radar. I know 3 posters in here that swore Baez could never be a star.

Russell really hasn't been healthy since then. Was hurt last year as well. As for the second part, if you're referring to me think you're overstating what I said. I always acknowledged he had a high skill cap but my worry was he would strike out too much to be effective. And to be honest, I'm still not sure his stats make sense. A guy with a 3.9%/24.7% bb/k rate shouldn't work. Maybe he's just a statistical anomaly. At this point I'm just shrugging and saying I don't get it. But that's the thing about using stats. It's never a case of saying it's a stone cold lock that <x> will happen. You're playing probability games.

 

[SilenceS]

Russell really hasn't been healthy since then. Was hurt last year as well. As for the second part, if you're referring to me think you're overstating what I said. I always acknowledged he had a high skill cap but my worry was he would strike out too much to be effective. And to be honest, I'm still not sure his stats make sense. A guy with a 3.9%/24.7% bb/k rate shouldn't work. Maybe he's just a statistical anomaly. At this point I'm just shrugging and saying I don't get it. But that's the thing about using stats. It's never a case of saying it's a stone cold lock that <x> will happen. You're playing probability games.

You were one but always had a but to him which was fine. I’m talking about one that was sure. I don’t want to make this a Baez topic because like you. I’m enjoying he ride.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[fatbeard]

Russell is there because Baez can play third and second and they never asked Russell to move anywhere, probably because they think his ego is too big to play anywhere but SS.

You really can tell who started following the team in 2016.

 

[CSF77]

Injuries would worry me with Brantley and I'm not trading Schwarber. I would like to see them move on from Russell which makes Machado a good fit.

He had right ankle surgery after injury hampered him late 2017. That delayed him a few weeks. I don't consider that a reason to be concerned. What I am looking at is 11 mil made so a 4/60 might be reasonable vs the 300 mil Manny pushes. Add to it .350 career OBA at the top would be refreshing.


The biggest issue I see going is losing OBA by going top D. Brantley actually fixes it while freeing up 2 solid trade chips in a year that their value maybe the ripest.

Add to it I don't see them affording Manny. That is a handcuff deal that prevents retention.

 

[anotheridiot]

You really can tell who started following the team in 2016.

No, try 1970. Where did they ever move Russell to? If its the ego deal, that came from when he made that blunder of trying to stretch the double into a triple and him saying he makes it 99/100 and will do the same every time.

 

[anotheridiot]

? he started his career playing 2B when Castro was still with the team. What's that have anything to do with his "ego"? Also, I've literally never heard Russell say anything that would indicate he's "cocky."

and? he was always a shortstop. He was not an every day player and they eventually did move Castro to second did they not? What does that have to do with never moving russell from SS? This is like the let schwarber catch deal. He might frame better than wilson and carrot top, lost 30 pounds, but still they moved him so he will never ever go back? You let your kid in Baez develop the rest of the way, then eventually, he is an everyday player and he may end up going back to SS. This is not Machado getting big and slowing down, or a roid, its a guy ready to go back to his spot when you have 6 other guys that can play second base on the roster.

 

[CSF77]

2nd game with Murphy on the bench and 2nd implosion.

But Russell makes the team better. Yep