Are you guys more worried about....

[FrankieLyrical]

The bats going cold in October or the pitching getting lit up?

Ever since I was a kid (I'm only 24, so 03, 07, 08, and last year are my Cubs postseason experiences) it seemed like our bats just go cold. I have PTSD from cold post-season bats. What are you guys worried about come next month?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Nope. Whatever happens happens.

 

[CSF77]

Not so much. The ball will get heavier and the runs should lessen. Teams that execute well and play top D should have the advantage.

Only thing that worries me is LAD right now. Kershaw back and Hill tossing a perfect through 7 before getting pulled.

That makes a tough 1-2 then Maedia and most likely Urias in as a 4th starter. This is the only rotation that I feel matches up with the Cubs.

 

[brett05]

No fear, but it's not so much the bats going cold as that it's really hard to hit great pitching and even more so for a younger offense.

 

[beckdawg]

The thing about this team more so than even last year is they are legit great defensively. And they are also legit crazily good at soft contact rates which plays even more into good defense. I don't particularly remember any of the cubs teams of the past 15-20 years being great defensively. Fangraphs only has fielding data going back to 2002. But to put some defensive metrics into contrast here, the cubs this season are +71 DRS and we're not even done with the season yet and that's a counting stat that can go up or down depending on how good you are. The next best season the cubs have from 2002-2015 was 2013 with +21 and 9 of the 14 other seasons they were negative in DRS. UZR really liked the 2007 cubs defense but it largely tells the same story for the rest of the seasons.

Now that doesn't really answer the question about the bats going cold but I feel like that is missing the issue often. Fans too often will see something happen and focus all of the blame on that. For example, pre-trade deadline we often saw a lot of complaining about the bullpen. Statistically speaking it was slightly above average yet the way people likely remember it was some horrid abomination. Getting back to the point here, most teams bats are going to go cold during the playoffs. That's just he way of things because your facing the best pitching usually in your respective league. And generally speaking, most teams don't have 5 good starters. The playoffs immediately remove one of the weaker pitchers from most teams rotation which strengthens the team you see.

What's any of that have to do with soft contact and defense? Well, those are things you largely control. If Kershaw goes out there and is just dominant and throws a no hitter or something close there's not much you can do there. But, if LA also doesn't score then it's largely wasted. As such, having easily the best defense in the majors and a pitching staff that limits extra base hits makes the opponent really work to score.

All that being said, I do worry slightly about the cubs reliance on the "big inning." Where they have got into trouble this year from a hitter perspective is when they can't string together hits enough to score. They walk at a phenomenal rate but eventually you need a base hit to get guys in usually. What we often see is games where they will get a few walks and then someone like Bryant hits a homer and they coast to a win because of it. What I would like to see however is for them to more commonly be able to string a few hits together and score runs.

 

[anotheridiot]

I would be much more comfortable if the Giants fell out of the race. Its an even year.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Here's the deal, there isn't any one thing I'm afraid of except for the randomness of playoff baseball. I truly believe the Cubs are the best team in the game and not because they have some great young hitters but because they have the best pitching and the best defense. There's never been a Cubs team with that combination in the playoffs before. Someone brought up the Dodgers and they are the walking, talking best example of the strange nature of baseball. I didn't pick them as a playoff team, I thought the Giants were likely to catch them as recently as 2 weeks ago and guess what? With 6 games remaining head to head they still could. The you look at the Dodgers and if they play Washington they really should beat them as the matchup looks incredibly favorable. You can play these matchup games with all these teams and do the "nobody wants to play the" fill in the blank team. Then I step back and I look at the league. Do you know who nobody wants to play? The Cubs. No, I'm not worried but I'm not guaranteeing a WS win either because that's not how the game works.

 

[jooo83]

The bats going cold in October or the pitching getting lit up?

Ever since I was a kid (I'm only 24, so 03, 07, 08, and last year are my Cubs postseason experiences) it seemed like our bats just go cold. I have PTSD from cold post-season bats. What are you guys worried about come next month?

Good question. For me it's the bats. I'm particularly interested to see how Rizzo and Bryant hit this time around.

 

[CSF77]

Here's the deal, there isn't any one thing I'm afraid of except for the randomness of playoff baseball. I truly believe the Cubs are the best team in the game and not because they have some great young hitters but because they have the best pitching and the best defense. There's never been a Cubs team with that combination in the playoffs before. Someone brought up the Dodgers and they are the walking, talking best example of the strange nature of baseball. I didn't pick them as a playoff team, I thought the Giants were likely to catch them as recently as 2 weeks ago and guess what? With 6 games remaining head to head they still could. The you look at the Dodgers and if they play Washington they really should beat them as the matchup looks incredibly favorable. You can play these matchup games with all these teams and do the "nobody wants to play the" fill in the blank team. Then I step back and I look at the league. Do you know who nobody wants to play? The Cubs. No, I'm not worried but I'm not guaranteeing a WS win either because that's not how the game works.

Dodgers went through a overhaul of their staff. Ryu injured. Grenke gone. Maeda untested. They were a fringe pitching staff at best. Adding Hill changed that. Maedia proved to be a capable Middle starter. Urias has been pretty good and IMO lets them walk from Hill next year vs pay him.

We know that runs will be hard to come by in these series. The fact LAD is sporting 3 lefties and the Cubs are stronger vs them bodes well.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

The team that matches up best with the Cubs is probably the Red Sox. But, oh to be in the World Series.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'd personally enjoy a Cubs/Indians series.

 

[Diehardfan]

I'm not afraid of anything anymore. I've been witness to major, major fails in the playoffs by this franchise over the years. But what always ripped your heart out was the fact that they were almost always not built to last and even though you would hear people saying the old Cub refrain of "wait till next year"...you knew deep down that it would probably be a lot longer than that. Not the case now. This team is gonna be knocking on the door for the foreseeable future.

For the most part, the playoffs is not about the best team..it's about the team that gets hot at the right time. Usually, a hot team is also commonly highlighted by one really hot player. The Cubs have quite a few players that could fit that mold. So while I'm eager to get it started....I'll be disappointed but certainly not crushed if they don't make it to the WS.

 

[TL1961]

Yeah, it's funny. For all the "Wait til next year" stupid cliche, I have rarely, if ever, felt at the end of a season I can't wait for next year.

 

[DanTown]

I really don't fear anything. While I of course want the team to win and will endlessly debate it here, I am typically very good at not having the team's failures make me upset. For me, sports isn't enjoyable if I get that invested in winning that I'm legitimately unable to be happy outside of my life when the team doesn't win. When I was younger (in my late teens in 03 for example) it was harder but now, not so much.

 

[cubsmann]

Yeah nothing to fear but fear itself. The Cubs are positioned so well now with them peaking at the end of the season. Their pitching and defense will win the title this year. I would bet on it. No one this year has shown that they can consistently beat the Cubs. Im thinking it will be Giants, Dodgers, Rangers.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Casey Stern said something on MLB radio yesterday that, as I've rolled it around in my head for a while, I think I agree with almost 100%. If the Cubs are going to get beat it's going to be because of matchup issues and small sample size in a the 5 game NLDS. If they get through that round it's tough to imagine anyone beating them in a 7 game series. They can just beat you too many ways and those extra 2 games are going to matter because of that strength. The good news, in terms of that NLDS, is that of their possible opponents the Mets and Cards are pretty bad teams. The Giants are a better team and could pose matchup problems. If you want to worry about something just pray that the Giants don't catch the Dodgers in the West in those last 6 head to head games.

 

[SilenceS]

No team scares me. This team doesnt have an over lining weakness. In '08, we had problems against hard throwing right handers. We got the Dodgers who were full of hard throwing right handers. '07 team just wasnt that good. Last year team was young and was one of the worst hitting team against hard throwers. '03 was a fluke that we lost. We go to the series we were winning the ship. This team may not win it, but it wont be because of some glaring flaw. Our bullpen is stacked for a playoff run because it is cut down. We have 4 legit starters who can go out there and be Aces any day. We have a lineup that doesnt need to hit everything to push a pitcher out of the game. Teams are worried about us not the other way around. When you have pitchers like Jose Fernandez saying this is the hardest lineup he has faced. That is saying something.

 

[fatbeard]

Yeah, it's funny. For all the "Wait til next year" stupid cliche, I have rarely, if ever, felt at the end of a season I can't wait for next year.

You didn't think they turned a corner last year? Finally beating the Cardinals and winning a playoff series at Wrigley? I remember watching the Mets celebrate and being incredibly optimistic about the future.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

No team scares me. This team doesnt have an over lining weakness. In '08, we had problems against hard throwing right handers. We got the Dodgers who were full of hard throwing right handers. '07 team just wasnt that good. Last year team was young and was one of the worst hitting team against hard throwers. '03 was a fluke that we lost. We go to the series we were winning the ship. This team may not win it, but it wont be because of some glaring flaw. Our bullpen is stacked for a playoff run because it is cut down. We have 4 legit starters who can go out there and be Aces any day. We have a lineup that doesnt need to hit everything to push a pitcher out of the game. Teams are worried about us not the other way around. When you have pitchers like Jose Fernandez saying this is the hardest lineup he has faced. That is saying something.

I agree with the only caveat being that the Dodgers in a 5 game series would be a tough matchup, probably still winning, while I think the Cubs beat them in a 7 almost no question.

 

[DanTown]

Of course the right teams "scare" me

- The Dodgers have an equally good rotation 1-4 as the Cubs do while having a few very good hitters that can be the difference in a low scoring game. Kershaw has historically struggled in the playoffs but if he hasn't thrown 230+ innings this time, it might be different.

- The Nationals have the potential to be dangerous in a short series with Scherzer/Strasburg if those guys are healthy

- The Cubs don't have a "typical" lineup so if guys struggle in games 1 and 2, how do you balance natural moving of guys without making it seem like a panic?

- Every starting pitcher on the team has a drastically lower ERA compared to FIP; what if that normalizes in a short series and your pitching goes from "drastically better" to "about equal"? The Cubs ERA for starters at 2.90 is much lower than the next four (Nationals 3.50, Mets at 3.61, Giants at 3.83, Dodgers at 3.99) but in terms of FIP, it's much closer (Nationals and Mets are tied at the best with 3.59, Dodgers next at 3.65, then Cubs at 3.77, then Giants at 3.84). Also, teams in the playoffs start bad starters less so the potential to win isn't the same as it is during the regular season

Cubs W/L with Arrieta/Lester/Hendricks: 57-26, .686 winning percentage
Dodgers W/L with Maeda/Kershaw/Hill/Urias: 43-18, .705 winning percentage

If the Cubs lose to the Dodgers, it would not surprise me. If they lost to a healthy Nationals team, it would not surprise me. Losing to anyone else in the NL would surprise me.