But he's not. A 3.64 ERA is not a number 1. He's pitched well in the playoffs and there's no doubt he'd pitch well here, but if it is me, I'm not going to give him ace money, as he is not an ace.
Furthermore, he's pitching like an ace this year. They are numbers that he is not going to be able to reproduce. He will regress to the mean. If you look at his velocity, it is also down. Also, his groundball rate is down, which is another cause for concern.
I think the best comparison for Lester is James Shields. They are basically the same pitcher except Lester is going to get probably 100 million more than Shields.
I break down each rotation spot as high medium and low range...
Like Aces, not every Ace is in the HOF catagory like a Glavine , Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson type..
I look at lester and see him as a Low range Ace in AL with the Numbers he put up there against a hitters league with DH , and could be a Medium range Ace in NL which should see his numbers improve. mostly his Whip, ERA, and Ks...
What will it take to get him this offseason ?
I think with him being 31 next season , the team that willing to give him a guaranteed 5th year with the money should land him..
Problem that the Cubs may find themselves in is that if their competing with a team that already built to win in 2015 , they may need to overpay in money and or years to get him unless he intrigued by a talented young team that about ready to roll and wants to be part of trying to win that world series with the Cubs..