brett05
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Who said the Cubs are the front runners for Lester?
Mitchapalooza
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Anyone think the red sox get him back? That would be so epic
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To early on Maeda, have to see where the market has him. He is no where near Darvish or Tanaka type of talent. More like a 3ish/4ish. He is only 6' and a 160 pounds. He is 25, but doesnt have really a plus pitch. His fastball would be his best pitch and his secondary pitches are average.
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Money wise and the Theo connection. We would have to be up there.
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Possible, he really likes Boston but if history tells us anything. It is extremely unlikely.
brett05
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Up there, but not the front runner. That would be Boston and in this case by quite a lot since he has come out publicly saying he wants to go back.
brett05
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I'd almost say more than likely. When a player says they want to go somewhere they usually do. This is a different test case though. I do not recall anyone ever saying, no worries, trade me and I'll be back in two months.
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Eh, at the end of the day its business. People say a lot of things until they see the money.
brett05
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Agree, the problem the Cubs have right now is that they have like a 20% surcharge issue. Meaning a top tier FA gets offered $100 million by a competitive team for say 5 years. The Cubs needs to offer $120 to have the same "woo" That disappears once they start winning.
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What constitutes a number 1?
Since 2008, there have been 155 pitchers with more than 500 innings. Lester ranks 29th in ERA. The only ones above him who have higher walk rates are Lincecum and Darvish. He ranks 25th in FIP. He has the 7th highest fWAR, but it is mainly based on FIP. Fangraphs for his career has him worth 34 wins, while bWAR has him worth 16.6. I think that that is a lot closer to being accurate than 34.
Since 2008, the pitchers that had higher fWAR are Verlander, Cliff Lee, King Felix, Kershaw, Greinke, and CC. All of those are much better than Lester. The pitchers close to him behind him in fWAR are Halladay, Hamels, Wainwright, Jered Weaver, Scherzer, Haren, Lincecum, and Shields.
Lester just isn't an ace. He's going to get paid like one though because he has been ridiculously good this year. Which is why I want us to stay away because he is going to command more than what he is worth and overpaying is never a good idea.
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this. CO you love FIP...remember how that worked out for you with Randy Wells.
lester is an ace. he may not be the flashy elite, consistent number 1 but he is still an ace. projections are what they are, projections. to boldly state "regress to the mean" has been well over used in the last 4 years.
lester is an ace. period.
Boobaby1
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I'd take him to start game 1 in any playoffs. I'd also take him and be well ahead of the game considering Samardzija would have probably cost north of 100 million, and I have two good prospects in the system, with one of them probably being my long term SS.
It would be like at the minimum staying the same, to possibly upgrading Shark, and getting the prospects to boot.
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My favorite teams
I would guess that the Yankees will be involved in the courtship of Lester this off-season. Money talks.
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Everything you just wrote says he is a number 1.
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Because you say so?
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29th in ERA, 25th in FIP? Definite ace.
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I'm saying that fWAR weights it too heavily. That's my whole point as to why Lester isn't an ace.
brett05
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Oh boy....
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Do you know how FIP works and why you have to take it with a grain of salt?
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He has had one bad year. He is the definition of a 1. No he is not a top 5 pitcher in the game but he is a guy anyone would give the ball to on any day. The definition of a number 1