Baseball banter with Patrick and Melissa

[BigP50]

Baseball Banter with Patrick and Melissa | Chi City Sports l Chicago Sports News - Blog - Message Board - Fans

 

[Lefty]

The Sox didn't win the WS in 2005 because they all liked each other and weren't shy about snapping towels in the locker room. They won because they routinely mashed the ball over the fence and had a rotation AND bullpen full of can't-miss pitching. Really, the 2005 WS brought home by the Sox is an example of just how much luck plays into post-season success.

 

[BigP50]

11-1 was luck?

 

[Lefty]

A large portion of it, yes. The likes of Geoff Blum, Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts were big-time contributors in that series, along with Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland and Brandon McCarthy pitching out of their damn-fool minds. That's a lot of luck right there.

 

[BigP50]

not really, thats Ozzie playing people he knows can contribute.

 

[Lefty]

not really, thats Ozzie playing people he knows can contribute.

No, that's Ozzie not being able to miss a relief pitcher having a career year when he strolls out to the mound to change pitchers.

And because I know a "stolen bases" argument is sure to follow, let me say this right now: for all their running, the Sox actually cost themselves nearly 7.5 runs with how many times they got caught.

 

[FirstTimer]

not really, thats Ozzie playing people he knows can contribute.

The point is he really couldn't go wrong. The entire bullpen had career years and most of the starting staff did as well...then they were lights out in the playoffs.

 

[DewsSox79]

"Patrick: I would honestly say team chemistry. In 2005 you could tell these guys loved being around each other just like the hawks did this year which is why they found great success. This year I don’t see that amongst the players and it looks like they are playing for themselves, not each other."

^^^^ What!? are you kidding me? team chemistry? make it stop make it stop!

 

[DewsSox79]

i cannot believe i read that.

 

[DewsSox79]

"Melissa: I’d personally hate to see him go and I don’t know how we would feel the void his absence would leave. Flowers isn’t ready to play at an MLB level, and Castro isn’t an every-day starter. We’d have to figure out that before trading him. However I’m sure he would probably leave if the situation was right and there was a chance he could play for a contender."

i think im gonna hurl

if aj is dealt than the sox feel they are sellers and can go with whoever they want at catcher. than flowers should get the call for mlb seasoning.

 

[Lefty]

In the playoffs that year, only one starter had a LOB% between 70 and 75 percent (Freddy Garcia), the rest of them were well above a 75 LOB%, with Contreras, Buehrle and B-Mac all having LOB marks above 80 percent. Out of the pen, Politte had a staggering 100 LOB% mark. That's insane, and it is positively an illustration of the possible benefits of the small sample sizes to be had in the playoffs.

 

[Captain Iago]

No, that's Ozzie not being able to miss a relief pitcher having a career year when he strolls out to the mound to change pitchers.

And because I know a "stolen bases" argument is sure to follow, let me say this right now: for all their running, the Sox actually cost themselves nearly 7.5 runs with how many times they got caught.

Ok, now I'm intrigued. How in the hell does someone calculate this? Nostradamus and a calculator? Does someone come up with that number based on what happens in the AB following a CS...that can't be right if there is a .5 there plus if there was only one base runner on, the pitcher removes himself from the stretch.

Sorry for the sorta hijack.

 

[Lefty]

Ok, now I'm intrigued. How in the hell does someone calculate this? Nostradamus and a calculator? Does someone come up with that number based on what happens in the AB following a CS...that can't be right if there is a .5 there plus if there was only one base runner on, the pitcher removes himself from the stretch.

Sorry for the sorta hijack.

I'm not exactly sure what Baseball Prospectus uses to calculate EqSBR (Equivalent Stolen Base Runs), it's either a run expectation framework or their custom Win Expectancy framework. Run expectation (the amount of runs a league-average team can expect to score given every base/out situation) makes sense because EqSBR is given in run increments, but BP usually shies away from using that over their Win Expectancy (the chance that a team wins the game given the inning/base/out situation, incorporating the run-scoring tendencies of both teams) framework, which they could easily convert into marginal runs by dividing EqSBWE by 10 or so (the amount of marginal runs that equals roughly 1 win).

 

[BigP50]

why all the stupid stats? They mean nothing.

 

[Lefty]

 

[BigP50]

"the chance that a team wins the game given the inning/base/out situation, incorporating the run-scoring tendencies of both teams)"

why?

 

[Lefty]

Why....what, exactly?

 

[BigP50]

just wondering what the purpose of this is?

 

[Lefty]

To tell teams how much a player's performance contributed to the team, and how particular strategies might be adding or subtracting from the overall goal of winning baseball games.

 

[BigP50]

ahhhh