Projected in a neutral park, ZiPS has Suzuki as a better-than-league-average corner outfielder but one who projects below All-Star levels without another step forward:
ZiPS Projection – Seiya Suzuki
Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
---|
2022 | .287 | .351 | .480 | 529 | 81 | 152 | 29 | 2 | 23 | 85 | 49 | 12 | 124 | 0 | 2.6 |
2023 | .285 | .350 | .488 | 502 | 77 | 143 | 29 | 2 | 23 | 81 | 47 | 10 | 125 | -1 | 2.5 |
2024 | .282 | .349 | .479 | 489 | 74 | 138 | 29 | 2 | 21 | 78 | 47 | 10 | 122 | -1 | 2.2 |
2025 | .281 | .347 | .479 | 474 | 72 | 133 | 27 | 2 | 21 | 76 | 45 | 9 | 122 | -1 | 2.1 |
2026 | .278 | .341 | .466 | 457 | 67 | 127 | 25 | 2 | 19 | 71 | 42 | 8 | 117 | -2 | 1.6 |
ZiPS suggests a five-year, $83 million contract for Suzuki, though some of that wouldn’t be part of his contract, with a chunk instead going to the Carp as a posting fee. (Based on the ZiPS’ projected contract, the posting fee would be about $14 million under MLB’s current arrangement with NPB, and I swear, I didn’t change Suzuki’s cut to $69 million in order to make that joke.)
ZiPS Projections – Adding Seiya Suzuki
Team | Playoff Probablity | With Suzuki | Difference |
---|
Philadelphia Phillies | 23.5% | 39.0% | 15.5% |
Milwaukee Brewers | 57.7% | 71.5% | 13.8% |
Oakland Athletics | 24.8% | 38.1% | 13.3% |
New York Mets | 58.7% | 69.4% | 10.7% |
San Diego Padres | 70.4% | 81.1% | 10.7% |
St. Louis Cardinals | 65.5% | 75.6% | 10.1% |
Los Angeles Angels | 24.7% | 34.7% | 10.0% |
Boston Red Sox | 30.5% | 40.1% | 9.6% |
Cincinnati Reds | 17.3% | 26.6% | 9.3% |
Detroit Tigers | 10.4% | 19.6% | 9.3% |
Atlanta Braves | 70.3% | 79.5% | 9.2% |
Toronto Blue Jays | 63.8% | 72.0% | 8.2% |
San Francisco Giants | 19.7% | 27.6% | 7.9% |
Miami Marlins | 15.8% | 23.4% | 7.6% |
Seattle Mariners | 17.4% | 23.8% | 6.4% |
Cleveland Guardians | 17.5% | 23.6% | 6.1% |
Minnesota Twins | 8.8% | 14.5% | 5.7% |
Chicago Cubs | 6.8% | 12.4% | 5.6% |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 87.9% | 92.9% | 5.0% |
Kansas City Royals | 6.7% | 11.7% | 5.0% |
Chicago White Sox | 74.8% | 79.8% | 5.0% |
Tampa Bay Rays | 61.7% | 66.2% | 4.5% |
Washington Nationals | 4.3% | 8.1% | 3.8% |
Texas Rangers | 3.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
New York Yankees | 74.3% | 76.5% | 2.2% |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
Houston Astros | 81.6% | 82.7% | 1.1% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
Colorado Rockies | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
Baltimore Orioles | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |