Big cuts are made

[JP Hochbaum]

From the GIF above it looks like a higher front leg kick which gives him more time to hold his swing.

 

[Parade_Rain]

They have made minor adjustments to his swing. The noise about overhauling his swing has been chatter from outside the organization many of whom don't believe minor adjustments are enough and that at 22 he's still young enough for an overhaul. It's clear the Cubs brass do not agree but the small changes they have tried to make haven't stuck past the batting cage which is probably more of a function of muscle memory than unwillingness to learn. He gets to the plate and adrenaline takes over. People are so worried about the K's but if he were to get his K rate to the 27%-30% range, with that bat speed all anyone would be saying is what a stud this kid is. Now let's see if he can get there.

Yep. It's a process. Actually Mallee has in the past suggested that there are about 7 steps to the curve before it shows up on game day.

 

[Parade_Rain]

From the GIF above it looks like a higher front leg kick which gives him more time to hold his swing.

GIF 1 from last year starts too late in the swing to know that for certain. There isn't any reason to mess with the leg kick, imho.

 

[brett05]

He's only hearing one thing from the Cubs. That's all that matters.

maybe

 

[Parade_Rain]

maybe

 

[brett05]

I'm serious. Would you be surprised that any hitter of any organization was getting at least two pieces of advice? Really? I think you missed the meaning of my simplistic "maybe" answer

 

[Parade_Rain]

I'm serious. Would you be surprised that any hitter of any organization was getting at least two pieces of advice? Really? I think you missed the meaning of my simplistic "maybe" answer

All the "pieces of advice" add up to start slower and earlier.

 

[brett05]

All the "pieces of advice" add up to start slower and earlier.

That very well could be. I'd have to rely on someone like you who does that for a living.

 

[beckdawg]

People are so worried about the K's but if he were to get his K rate to the 27%-30% range, with that bat speed all anyone would be saying is what a stud this kid is. Now let's see if he can get there.

I mean I've said my piece on Baez but honestly I don't think that's enough. In that range his OBP is still going to be mediocre. At a 8.1%/27.3% bb/k rate last season Jay Bruce hit .217/.281/.373. His BABIP was about 30 points below average at .269 so you could probably call that more like .247/.311 perhaps slightly higher if you assume at least early in Baez career he'll have a decent set of wheels and thus a slightly above average BABIP. Maybe some will be won over by HR numbers but to me that doesn't mean much. As I've said a number of times, Chris Carter hit 37 HRs last season with roughly a .310 OBP and to be blunt no teams fans is saying man we need to go get him in a trade.

Honestly, I'd be surprised if Baez ever gets a "fair" narrative. I'll tell you what's going to happen right now. He's going to be a guy that K's in "clutch" situations because that's the numbers game when you K 1/4th of the time and fans are going to feel like he's a bust because he's been talked up to great heights by prospect people. Obviously that's a bit unfair but it didn't stop Yankee fans from hating on A-Rod for irrational reasons because he's not Jeter. Additionally, I've said this before but I think Alcantara is going to surprise a bunch of people this year to the point where Baez's role may be in question.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I mean I've said my piece on Baez but honestly I don't think that's enough. In that range his OBP is still going to be mediocre. At a 8.1%/27.3% bb/k rate last season Jay Bruce hit .217/.281/.373. His BABIP was about 30 points below average at .269 so you could probably call that more like .247/.311 perhaps slightly higher if you assume at least early in Baez career he'll have a decent set of wheels and thus a slightly above average BABIP. Maybe some will be won over by HR numbers but to me that doesn't mean much. As I've said a number of times, Chris Carter hit 37 HRs last season with roughly a .310 OBP and to be blunt no teams fans is saying man we need to go get him in a trade.

Honestly, I'd be surprised if Baez ever gets a "fair" narrative. I'll tell you what's going to happen right now. He's going to be a guy that K's in "clutch" situations because that's the numbers game when you K 1/4th of the time and fans are going to feel like he's a bust because he's been talked up to great heights by prospect people. Obviously that's a bit unfair but it didn't stop Yankee fans from hating on A-Rod for irrational reasons because he's not Jeter. Additionally, I've said this before but I think Alcantara is going to surprise a bunch of people this year to the point where Baez's role may be in question.

You're on record with your feelings on Baez and, to be honest, you could be right and I wouldn't be surprised at all. I wouldn't be surprised if you're wrong either. The one thing that makes Baez different than some of these other guys is that he is a good defensive ballplayer. What if he's Dan Uggla but as a better defender? Is that not valuable? Uggla has three years of really good OBP numbers, but it some of the other years still hit a ton of home runs. Again I'm not sure on this kid. Because of his bat speed he's going to stick around and get some chances and he just turned 22. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a bust and I wouldn't be surprised if he's a solid player. I just don' his story as anywhere near written yet.

 

[2323]

With all the hype about this bullshit, it makes sense when you think about it. Bryant did struggle his last couple games, including some backwords K's. He also needs more time in LF, not necessarily cuz his 3B play was bad, but to get a better lineup for the Cubs to win by another player playing 3B.

Baez with the 3 K's yesterday didn't help his cause any, either, and Russell wasn't supposed to make the roster. But the biggest thing is the Cubs will get some more time to evaluate the other players that could help them win, like La Stella, etc. Maddon will get some real game looks at the veterans to see what players he wants to keep for the long haul.

It's a farce. Bryant could have been playing OF weeks ago.

 

[Bear Pride]

It's a farce. Bryant could have been playing OF weeks ago.

To me, the only thing that's a farce, is the fact we still have to talk about it. The damn players union signed the contract during the CBA. The players always do what's best for them, why shouldn't teams do what's best for them?

I think it'a a farce that Boras has to criticize the Cubs through the media. I think it's a farce that Boras has to cause strife between the Cubs players and management prior to the most exciting start to the year since, well, a freakin century.

File a grievance or call out the union, but as far as I'm concerned.......

STFU!

#letsplaysomefuckinball


Edit to add: And before you get all mad at me again 23, that wasn't directed at you.

 

[chibears55]

I think people are looking at Bryant HR total and not his overall spring. .

He hit 6 of those 9 HR in the first 7 games where he also only struck out 5 times in 20 ABs...

Last 7 games he had 20 AB 3 HR and 9 Ks
facing a bit better pitching. ..

 

[beckdawg]

The one thing that makes Baez different than some of these other guys is that he is a good defensive ballplayer.

There's been talk of that this spring but I don't know color me unconvinced. I say this as someone who defended him when he had what was it 40 errors 2 years ago? At that point I suggested Castro had a similar number of errors at those levels. The thing is even though Castro has improved a boat load I'm not sure I'd suggest he's even average defensively. Last season Baez had 10 errors in 55 games which would put him on pace for 30+ over a full season. While it's far to early to draw strong conclusions on metrics they didn't like him either with a -28.7 UZR/150 at 2B and a -7.2 UZR/150 at SS. I'm more than willing to humor the idea that he'll be Castro defensively. I can totally buy that. But, I'm not seeing a gold glover.

Ultimately I feel as though people have the wrong idea on what he is likely to be. I don't necessarily think he's a boom or bust guy. Given his power and the lack of that in the majors and his ability to start MI I'd be surprised if he isn't playing there for someone. However, I think his top end is quite limited with where he appears to be today even given reasonable improvement assumptions. I'd suggest he's more likely a 1-3 WAR player rather than a 0 or 5 WAR guy. But again I don't think that's a "stud" player. That's the reason I've been so vocal about him because I feel as though people have this vision of him being a 5+ WAR guy. To get to that point his K rate probably has to go well under 25% and he probably has to be at least an above average defender. He may also need to raise his walk rate. For example, the only players last season with 5+ fWAR and less than .340 OBP were Ian Kinsler(11.2 UZR/150), Jhonny Peralta(12.7 UZR/150), Kyle Seager(9.2 UZR/150), and Adam Jones(8.7 UZR/150). And as I've already discussed he's going to have trouble getting to that sort of OBP given the player he appears to be.

 

[SilenceS]

There's been talk of that this spring but I don't know color me unconvinced. I say this as someone who defended him when he had what was it 40 errors 2 years ago? At that point I suggested Castro had a similar number of errors at those levels. The thing is even though Castro has improved a boat load I'm not sure I'd suggest he's even average defensively. Last season Baez had 10 errors in 55 games which would put him on pace for 30+ over a full season. While it's far to early to draw strong conclusions on metrics they didn't like him either with a -28.7 UZR/150 at 2B and a -7.2 UZR/150 at SS. I'm more than willing to humor the idea that he'll be Castro defensively. I can totally buy that. But, I'm not seeing a gold glover.

Ultimately I feel as though people have the wrong idea on what he is likely to be. I don't necessarily think he's a boom or bust guy. Given his power and the lack of that in the majors and his ability to start MI I'd be surprised if he isn't playing there for someone. However, I think his top end is quite limited with where he appears to be today even given reasonable improvement assumptions. I'd suggest he's more likely a 1-3 WAR player rather than a 0 or 5 WAR guy. But again I don't think that's a "stud" player. That's the reason I've been so vocal about him because I feel as though people have this vision of him being a 5+ WAR guy. To get to that point his K rate probably has to go well under 25% and he probably has to be at least an above average defender. He may also need to raise his walk rate. For example, the only players last season with 5+ fWAR and less than .340 OBP were Ian Kinsler(11.2 UZR/150), Jhonny Peralta(12.7 UZR/150), Kyle Seager(9.2 UZR/150), and Adam Jones(8.7 UZR/150). And as I've already discussed he's going to have trouble getting to that sort of OBP given the player he appears to be.

Lulz

 

[beckdawg]

Lulz

[video=youtube;23kFiqFiOlA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23kFiqFiOlA[/video]

 

[CSF77]

1B: Rizzo
2B: Alcantara
SS: Castro
3B: Olt
LF: Coghlan
CF: Fowler
RF: Soler
C: Montero

Bench:
C: Ross
C: Castillo
IF: LaStella
IF: Herrera
OF: Szczur

I'm expecting Alcantara to start and them using him as the 5th OF at times. Szczur earned a spot this spring with a .349/.417/.837 line.#2 on the team with 5 HR's. If that power translates outside of S/T he may never look back.

Pen:

Coke looks like he tied up the LH pen arm. 9 games 0.00 ERA. .78 WHIP is getting the job done. He is a vet to lean on.

So the pen is looking like:
Rondon
Strop
Ramirez
Coke

Rotation:
Lester
Arrieta
Hammel
Hendricks

Leaves 4 open spots.
$$$
Jackson 11 mil
Wood: 6 mil
Motte: 4.5 mil

Leaves 1 open spot. I see it going back to Grimm but Ortiz could make an argument. Rosscup put up 12 SO's in 9 IP.

IMO they should not have spent on Motte this off season. I get it that it was because of the youth in the pen. But if they were going to spend it should have been on a elite closer not on a player that has not rebounded from injury.

Right now I believe the 25 has been set. Basically there is just 1 spot under debate. I see them using Herrera to free up Alcantara. LaStella I see getting games at 3B.
Looking at Herrera in 1346 inning at 2B. He has only committed 11 errors total. 3.85 RF. I see him as a solid place holder for Baez. LaStella IMO is a liability at 2B. I like his OBA skills and should make a solid LH PH as the season is in progress.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

1B: Rizzo
2B: Alcantara
SS: Castro
3B: Olt
LF: Coghlan
CF: Fowler
RF: Soler
C: Montero

Bench:
C: Ross
C: Castillo
IF: LaStella
IF: Herrera
OF: Szczur

I'm expecting Alcantara to start and them using him as the 5th OF at times. Szczur earned a spot this spring with a .349/.417/.837 line.#2 on the team with 5 HR's. If that power translates outside of S/T he may never look back.

Pen:

Coke looks like he tied up the LH pen arm. 9 games 0.00 ERA. .78 WHIP is getting the job done. He is a vet to lean on.

So the pen is looking like:
Rondon
Strop
Ramirez
Coke

Rotation:
Lester
Arrieta
Hammel
Hendricks

Leaves 4 open spots.
$$$
Jackson 11 mil
Wood: 6 mil
Motte: 4.5 mil

Leaves 1 open spot. I see it going back to Grimm but Ortiz could make an argument. Rosscup put up 12 SO's in 9 IP.

IMO they should not have spent on Motte this off season. I get it that it was because of the youth in the pen. But if they were going to spend it should have been on a elite closer not on a player that has not rebounded from injury.

Right now I believe the 25 has been set. Basically there is just 1 spot under debate. I see them using Herrera to free up Alcantara. LaStella I see getting games at 3B.
Looking at Herrera in 1346 inning at 2B. He has only committed 11 errors total. 3.85 RF. I see him as a solid place holder for Baez. LaStella IMO is a liability at 2B. I like his OBA skills and should make a solid LH PH as the season is in progress.

Personally I would love to see Herrera make this team. Going into the season without a backup SS is scary. Sure they could always call up Baez or Russell but what if all Castro needs is 3 days or so to get right? Right now they're looking at Alcantara who played part of 1 game at SS this spring and who the FO really doesn't think can play the position. That being said you are the sole individual I've seen that gives Herrera a shot at making this roster. I think they roll the dice at SS and while Olt gets the first shot at 3B Alcantara and La Stella will see time there as well. When Bryant comes up I think La Stella probably starts a 2B more often than not with Alcantara seeing a day a week in RF and CF as well as maybe 2 days a week at 2B.

As far as Szczur goes, the kid earned a spot and will probably make the opening day roster. There has been some question with his contract as to whether he has options left. If he does I think he goes down when Denorfia comes off the DL. Carrying 3 catchers is a far greater burden to this roster than sending Bryant down ever could be. They're going to need to stop this game of chicken and dump Castillo pretty quick but of course if they trade him for an MLB player there's still a roster crunch.

 

[beckdawg]

Personally I would love to see Herrera make this team. Going into the season without a backup SS is scary. Sure they could always call up Baez or Russell but what if all Castro needs is 3 days or so to get right?

Alcantara came up as a SS originally playing 266 games there. I'm not saying you want to play him there long term but for 3 games? Not that big of a deal. Pretty sure the original reason they moved him to 2B was because they promoted Baez to AA. He played 66 games at AA SS and 64 at 2B which would be roughly the half season split Baez was there in 2013. After that there wasn't ever a reason to move him back because they had both at AAA and ultimately added Russell too not to mention they already had Castro.

Edit: Also I'd wager there wasn't ever really a reason to play him their this spring. Obviously you have Castro. But they also wanted to get a look at Russell. And considering they played Baez there when Castro was hurt he'd likely be the third in depth for ST. Considering they were already playing him in CF, 2B, and 3B there was likely not much option.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Alcantara came up as a SS originally playing 266 games there. I'm not saying you want to play him there long term but for 3 games? Not that big of a deal. Pretty sure the original reason they moved him to 2B was because they promoted Baez to AA. He played 66 games at AA SS and 64 at 2B which would be roughly the half season split Baez was there in 2013. After that there wasn't ever a reason to move him back because they had both at AAA and ultimately added Russell too not to mention they already had Castro.

Edit: Also I'd wager there wasn't ever really a reason to play him their this spring. Obviously you have Castro. But they also wanted to get a look at Russell. And considering they played Baez there when Castro was hurt he'd likely be the third in depth for ST. Considering they were already playing him in CF, 2B, and 3B there was likely not much option.

Barry Rozner was talking about how they just plain don't think he could play there and I've heard that before. That was the reason a lot of people thought Baez would stick. With the work Javy needs didn't seem like a very good reason to me.