Big cuts are made

[Parade_Rain]

What alot of stuff ? Not swinging and missing too much

He going to Iowa, he most likely tears it up there again for a month or so... what else is there to keep him down ?

Point is, i think he shown he could hit AAA pitching pretty well..
They eventually need to bring him back up to see if he able to adjust and hit major league pitching. ..


Russell 21 YO, with plenty of good IFers already on team this year
I just dont see the Cubs bringing him up this year..

I think he gets the Bryant treatment, stays in Iowa all year and comes up late April to get an extra Full year on him...

No he didn't. He got on a bit of a streak and they called him up specifically so he could struggle and see what he needed to work on.

 

[chibears55]

The only way Baez comes up is if a couple of players get injured. A month is not going to be enough. It may be more like the last few months of the year at best.

I could actually see Russell coming up before Baez if 3B and/or 2B doesn't work out for a couple of guys. If Russell outperforms Baez as someone said, he may not get the call up.

Baez has a lot of proving to do with the bat. His discipline has to be drastically improved. This FO is not going to take free swingers IMO, especially when they are preaching OBP.

Ehhhh... i bet Baez was only sent down cause of the Bryant situation. .. to sorta justify it despite his poor play

Maddon was backing baez pretty good til the last couple days before he was sent down and also the whole baez saying he made the team. .. it looks as if the uppers had a meeting and decided to send them both down to ease the assault a bit of sending bryant down. .. seemed to work...


Baez will be up within a week or two after bryant and they figure out the bench situation as long as he not crapping it up in Iowa..

dont understand the rush for a 21 YO IFer who hasn't really played in AAA yet. ... yes the kid has lots of potential, no need to rush him up this year..

 

[Diehardfan]

Gotcha. ..lol

@CarrieMuskat: It's down to Sweeney vs Szczur vs Herrera for final 2 spots. Denorfia likely to open on DL. Coghlan day to day now. #Cubs


I dont think Herrera makes it....

Sweeney makes it by default because he a LH bat ..

Szczur earned it....


They have to make a deal or 2 to clean up the Bench with 2 Catchers and especially when Donorfio, Bryant, and Baez comes back...


Pissed that Jackson coming north over better options in Grimm and Schlitter. ...

Yeah, I really thought they'd just dump him off for a bag of balls or something. This is only because he has a history with Maddon and I guess he thinks he can turn him around. Good luck with that.

 

[chibears55]

@RobZastryzny_8: "@wrigleyvillenat: Baez with a monster home run while Bryant awaits his turn on deck. pic.twitter.com/3LSUHrCsuS" dont forget @treymasek

AAA not going to be rough on Baez, he needs to face major league pitching ... not saying he needs to start but should get ABs in the majors

 

[beckdawg]

A lot of people are declaring Alcantara a main stay which is far from a given.

A lot of people? Honestly, other than me I've not seen many people talking him up and I've been pretty clear it's my opinion that he will more so than a foregone conclusion.

 

[CSF77]

Yeah, I really thought they'd just dump him off for a bag of balls or something. This is only because he has a history with Maddon and I guess he thinks he can turn him around. Good luck with that.

22 mil reasons why he is making the team.

On Szczur: Earned it and with Lake demoted it should be obvious that he will get Denorfia's roster spot. Sweeney sucked last year. I only see him getting a shot if Coghlan starts injured. He is depth right now.

I still see then need in IF depth with Alcantara able to cover the OF and Szczur able to cover all 3 OF spots.

 

[CSF77]

A lot of people? Honestly, other than me I've not seen many people talking him up and I've been pretty clear it's my opinion that he will more so than a foregone conclusion.

I've called him out on his BB%. He should be a strong bench player long term as he can play a bunch of roles. But lacks some plate skills to be a full time player.

OBA this spring:
LaStella: .455
Fowler: .448
Szczur: .423
Coghlan: .420
Soler: .393
Olt: .389

Alcantara: .315

It is going to be interesting to see if Maddon values LaStella's OBA over Alcantara's glove (or not) at 2B opening day.


Spring hits:
Soler: 19
La Stella: 18
Bryant: 17
Szczur: 17
Fowler: 15
Lake: 13
Olt: 13
Alcantara: 12
Herrera: 12
Russell: 12
Castro: 11
Coghlan: 11
Rizzo: 10

I'm honestly thinking Rizzo hits the reg season hot. As I recall he came in cold last S/T then strated hot when the games counted. Castro has been cold this spring. I'm not to concerned with him either. Montero all I can say needs to hit better. Having Ross in there looks like a wash right now....

 

[beckdawg]

I've called him out on his BB%. He should be a strong bench player long term as he can play a bunch of roles. But lacks some plate skills to be a full time player.

Don't agree but whatever. I think he'll be be more than that.

Edit: it occurred to me that I should probably explain this in greater detail. These are his walk rates by month in the minors last season.

April - 3 BB in 93 PA or 3.2%
May - 8 BB in 112 PAs or 7.1%
June - 10 BB in 124 PAs or 8%
July - 4 BB in 34 PAs or 11.7%

If you exclude his really slow start in april he was 22 BB in 270 or 8.1% walk rate. For Licey in the DWL he had 7 bb in 68 ABs(they don't list PA and I don't feel like hunting) which is roughly 10.3%. the DWL is roughly considered AAA competition. Also keep in mind he had a 10.9% rate in AA over 571 PAs. Obviously this is lessor competition than the majors. League average in terms of walk rate was 7.6% last season. Walk rate tends to be one of the few things that doesn't really decrease in the majors for players. For example, Rizzo had a 10.4% in his first AAA with the Padres(413 PAs) and a thus far in his career he has a 10.8% in the majors(1827). Rizzo was basically +/- 1% of that from A+ on. In terms of spring training, Alcantara had 5 BBs in 48 ABs(again stupid MLB uses ABs not PAs) or a 10.6% bb rate roughly. Given that I think it's pretty reasonable to expect Alcnatara to walk some where between 8-10%.

In terms of K rate, it looks like this

April - 20 k's in 93 PAs or 21.5%
May - 30 k's in 112 PAs or 26.8%
June - 26 k's in 124 or 21%
July - 7 k's in 34 PAs or 20.6%

That gave him a 22.7% for all of AAA though he was about 6 K's higher than normal in May. For Licey he had 15 K's in 68 ABs or roughly 22%. In Spring Training he had 16 in 48 ABs or roughly 33.3%. This coincides with his 31.0% in the majors last year. If we again use Rizzo as an example, he had 21.5% K rate for the Padres in his first AAA stint. He followed up with 30.1% for his first 153 PAs in the majors and currently sits at 19.2% for his career. Personally, I'd wager that Alcantara is closer to 21% K rate guy than 22%.

This is a list of every player who stole more than 20 bases while having a bb rate between 8-10.99%, and a k rate above 19% in the past 10 years.

2009 - Micheal Bourn - 9.3%/20.6% .285/.354/.384
2012 - Micheal Bourn - 10.0%/22.0% .274/.348/.391
2012 - Mike Trout - 10.5%/21.8% .326/.399/.564
2009 - B.J. Upton - 9.1%/24.3% .241/.313/.373
2010 - B.J. Upton - 11.0%/26.9% .237/.322/.424
2014 - B.J. Upton - 9.8%/29.7% .208/.287/.333
2006 - Alfonso Soriano - 9.2%/22.0% .277/.351/.560
2011 - Matt Kemp - 10.7%/23.1% .324/.399/.586
2011 - Emilio Bonifacio - 9.2%/20.1% .296/.360/.393
2010 - Drew Stubbs - 9.4%/28.8% .255/.329/.444
2011 - Drew Stubbs - 9.3%/30.1% .243/.321/.364
2012 - Desmond Jennings - 8.2%/21.3% .246/.314/.388
2013 - Desmond Jennings - 10.6%/19.1% .252/.334/.414
2010 - Andres Torres - 9.8%/22.5% .268/.343/.479
2013 - Brett Gardner - 8.5%/20.9% .273/.344/.416
2006 - Grady Sizemore - 10.4%/20.4% .290/.375/.533
2004 - Mike Cameron - 10.1%/25.4% .231/.319/.479
2011 - Austin Jackson - 8.4%/27.1% .249/.317/.374
2012 - Jason Heyward - 8.9%/23.3% .269/.335/.479
2014 - Christian Yelich - 10.6%/20.8% .284/.362/.402
2014 - Brett Gardner - 8.8%/21.1% .256/.327/.422
2012 - Hanley Ramirez - 8.1%/19.8% .257/.322/.437
2008 - Fred Lewis - 9.8%/23.8% .282/.351/.440
2012 - Shin-Soo Choo - 10.6%/21.9% .283/.373/.441
2012 - Andrew McCutchen - 10.4%/19.6% .327/.400/.553
2009 - Justin Upton - 9.4%/23.3% .300/.366/.532
2011 - Carlos Gonzalez - 8.9%/19.4% .295/.363/.526
2012 - Carlos Gonzalez - 9.7%/19.9% .303/.371/.510
2009 - Nelson Cruz - 9.5%/22.9% .260/.332/.524
2009 - Curtis Granderson - 10.1%/19.9% .249/.327/.453

The 5 worst OBP seasons on that list are 2014 Upton(.287), 2009 Upton(.313), 2012 Desmond Jennings(.314), 2011 Austin Jackson(.317), and 2004 Mike Cameron(.319). Keep in mind for a moment that .314 was last year's league average in OBP and also keep in mind that Alcantara stole 8 bases in 300 PAs which if you figure he gets 650 PAs with no change in stats would roughly be 17-18. If we narrow that focus to just 2B they averaged .250/.307/.364 last season.

The vast majority of players on that list hit in the .270/.340-.350 range which coincides well with the .271/.352/.451 Alcantara hit in AA. Also, of those players above, only 2011/12/13 Cargo, 2009 Granderson, 2009 Cruz, 2009 Justin Upton, 2012 McCutchen, 2012 Choo, 2012 Hanley, 2014 Gardner, 2012 Heyward, 2004 Cameron, 2006 Sizemore, 2010 Torres, 2011/12 Drew Stubbs, 2011 Kemp, 2006 Soriano, 2010 B.J. Upton, and 2012 Trout hit more than 15 HRs from that list which clearly Alcantara has the power for.

Additionally, it's not as though Alcantara looked bad defensively. He made a number of impressive plays last season. And while I wont tell you to rely on 209 innings worth of UZR he was a 24.0 UZR/150. Even if he's a third of that he's still well above average defensively.

Long story short, none of that screams bench player to me. I think he'll be a guy pretty close to his AA numbers. With a 132 wRC+ that'd put him third last season behind Cano(136) and Altuve(135) for 2B's with Neil Walker(130), Zobrist(119), Brian Dozier(118) and Howie Kendrick(115) being the only others above 115. I'd also point out that he batted .250/.315/.417 in ST with a 33% k rate so presuming his K rate does come down a .330-.340 OBP is well within reason.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Ehhhh... i bet Baez was only sent down cause of the Bryant situation. .. to sorta justify it despite his poor play

Maddon was backing baez pretty good til the last couple days before he was sent down and also the whole baez saying he made the team. .. it looks as if the uppers had a meeting and decided to send them both down to ease the assault a bit of sending bryant down. .. seemed to work...


Baez will be up within a week or two after bryant and they figure out the bench situation as long as he not crapping it up in Iowa..

dont understand the rush for a 21 YO IFer who hasn't really played in AAA yet. ... yes the kid has lots of potential, no need to rush him up this year..

Baez won't be up in a few weeks, if that was the case there would have been no reason to send him down. As far as Russell I don't think there's a rush but if you listen to scouts he's pretty near ready. A couple things to understand is that Oakland uses AAA quite a bit differently than the Cubs do. Most of their players come up right from AA or go to AAA or a few weeks. In 2013 Russell went to AAA for a few days to get a handle on whether he could come up for them and start at SS in early 2014. It exposed some weaknesses and they targeted him more for late 2014. Then he was injured, then he was traded. On the A's development scale he would be starting at SS now. The Cubs are more thorough and more cautious. I think That the Cubs would like him to play in AAA all year, I also think if their right in the race in June or July they'll be less likely to trade for a bat than call one up and since my opinion is that Baez is further away as a hitter I think Russell would make a lot of sense. Maybe at 2B or maybe at 3B with Bryant moving to left. I think that will depend on the performances of La Stella and Coghlan. I think pitching is the strength if this team and what could hold them back us run production. Russell would be an upgrade. Another scenario is injury and again he might make sense. If the Cubs are way out of it or are in the thick of it by getting unexpected production from the likes of La Stella, Coghlan or even Montero then I think he stays down and we go through the Boras drama again next year. However I think between injury, need for run production or just plain performance from Russell at AAA I think he's up this year. It's also not a minority opinion among scouts and writers who cover the Cubs. Even the crusty mass of negative energy that is Bruce Levine thinks he'll be up this year. In the end though they're all opinions and best guesses and this is my educated guess.

 

[CSF77]

With Baez in AAA he has his shot. The problem is the Cubs were 3rd from last in team OBA. .300. As a table setter that is his primary role on the team. Sure HR power and D factor into the decision but OBA will be the deciding factor on if he starts vs plays the sub role over the first few weeks.

They traded for Fowler ans La Stella because it was a targeted "team" need. http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/115774610/cubs-new-additions-can-provide-needed-obp-boost

 

[CSF77]

Baez won't be up in a few weeks, if that was the case there would have been no reason to send him down. As far as Russell I don't think there's a rush but if you listen to scouts he's pretty near ready. A couple things to understand is that Oakland uses AAA quite a bit differently than the Cubs do. Most of their players come up right from AA or go to AAA or a few weeks. In 2013 Russell went to AAA for a few days to get a handle on whether he could come up for them and start at SS in early 2014. It exposed some weaknesses and they targeted him more for late 2014. Then he was injured, then he was traded. On the A's development scale he would be starting at SS now. The Cubs are more thorough and more cautious. I think That the Cubs would like him to play in AAA all year, I also think if their right in the race in June or July they'll be less likely to trade for a bat than call one up and since my opinion is that Baez is further away as a hitter I think Russell would make a lot of sense. Maybe at 2B or maybe at 3B with Bryant moving to left. I think that will depend on the performances of La Stella and Coghlan. I think pitching is the strength if this team and what could hold them back us run production. Russell would be an upgrade. Another scenario is injury and again he might make sense. If the Cubs are way out of it or are in the thick of it by getting unexpected production from the likes of La Stella, Coghlan or even Montero then I think he stays down and we go through the Boras drama again next year. However I think between injury, need for run production or just plain performance from Russell at AAA I think he's up this year. It's also not a minority opinion among scouts and writers who cover the Cubs. Even the crusty mass of negative energy that is Bruce Levine thinks he'll be up this year. In the end though they're all opinions and best guesses and this is my educated guess.

I see it as when Baez gets on fire he will be promoted back to 2B. He is viewed at the future there and it is up to him to make the needed adjustments. The only time clock is his own.

Bryant I believe is promoted after the 12 days as long as he doesn't start off in a slump.

Russell is another story. I see him getting almost a full season in Iowa barring injury to Castro. This season will have to sort it self out and Russell will fall into what ever role that opens itself for him. I see the natural path of letting Olt build trade value and moving Bryant to LF. But they could just push Olt to a corner IF role also and keep Coghlan in LF. It is not like Coghlan sucks or anything either.

Who knows to be honest here.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I see it as when Baez gets on fire he will be promoted back to 2B. He is viewed at the future there and it is up to him to make the needed adjustments. The only time clock is his own.

Bryant I believe is promoted after the 12 days as long as he doesn't start off in a slump.

Russell is another story. I see him getting almost a full season in Iowa barring injury to Castro. This season will have to sort it self out and Russell will fall into what ever role that opens itself for him. I see the natural path of letting Olt build trade value and moving Bryant to LF. But they could just push Olt to a corner IF role also and keep Coghlan in LF. It is not like Coghlan sucks or anything either.

Who knows to be honest here.

None of us know. My personal opinion is that Russell, while looking good there right now, is not a SS long term as he grows into his body and it's been reported that, barring an offer they couldn't refuse, Castro is the long term choice of the Cubs at SS. I think Russell is ultimately their long term answer at 3B, but I think if they thought he could help at 2B this year they'd play him there. Of course this is a funny game and things happen. If Castro were to go down with an injury after Russell's super 2 date he might get that call up and be so good there that Ol' Starlin never sees the position again. Or Russell may never play a minute at SS. Thank goodness games are about to start huh?

 

[fatbeard]

None of us know. My personal opinion is that Russell, while looking good there right now, is not a SS long term as he grows into his body and it's been reported that, barring an offer they couldn't refuse, Castro is the long term choice of the Cubs at SS. I think Russell is ultimately their long term answer at 3B, but I think if they thought he could help at 2B this year they'd play him there. Of course this is a funny game and things happen. If Castro were to go down with an injury after Russell's super 2 date he might get that call up and be so good there that Ol' Starlin never sees the position again. Or Russell may never play a minute at SS. Thank goodness games are about to start huh?

The problem with putting Russell at 3B long term is it leaves the Cubs one spot short for Bryant/Schwarber. Everyone that I've heard--everyone--outside the Cubs org believes there's no way in hell Schwarber makes it as a major league catcher. He's going to have to play LF, and that puts Bryant at 3B. So Russell has to play middle infield. Eventually either Castro or Baez gets moved for starting pitching, unless Baez flames out. Am I wrong?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The problem with putting Russell at 3B long term is it leaves the Cubs one spot short for Bryant/Schwarber. Everyone that I've heard--everyone--outside the Cubs org believes there's no way in hell Schwarber makes it as a major league catcher. He's going to have to play LF, and that puts Bryant at 3B. So Russell has to play middle infield. Eventually either Castro or Baez gets moved for starting pitching, unless Baez flames out. Am I wrong?

The Cubs believe in Schwarber as a catcher and apparently he made a few converts in ST. I think it's his "want to" that makes it a little more likely. Frankly I don't think he's a catcher but I'm impressed by his drive as well. He's coming to town here with the Smokies next week and I look forward to seeing him. If he isn't a catcher something will have to give because I don't think Bryant is third baseman long term. Believe me the Cubs will do what they can to make this kid as little as a liability behind the plate as possible.

 

[fatbeard]

The Cubs believe in Schwarber as a catcher and apparently he made a few converts in ST. I think it's his "want to" that makes it a little more likely. Frankly I don't think he's a catcher but I'm impressed by his drive as well. He's coming to town here with the Smokies next week and I look forward to seeing him. If he isn't a catcher something will have to give because I don't think Bryant is third baseman long term. Believe me the Cubs will do what they can to make this kid as little as a liability behind the plate as possible.

But even if Schwarber does turn himself into a decent catcher, does it make sense to have what is by all accounts an amazing bat--potentially the best in the Cubs system--playing ~140 games a year?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

But even if Schwarber does turn himself into a decent catcher, does it make sense to have what is by all accounts an amazing bat--potentially the best in the Cubs system--playing ~140 games a year?

There isn't a perfect solution. Bryant isn't a great fit at 3B and Schwarber isn't a great fit at catcher and of places they might play all they have is LF with Rizzo and Soler locked up at 1B and RF. They can't both play there. Positionally having a catcher that can do what Schwarber can do is an incredible plus. Potentially he could be the best hitting catcher in the game. I don't know the answers bu they're nice problems to have and these things have a way of working themselves out.

 

[CSF77]

There isn't a perfect solution. Bryant isn't a great fit at 3B and Schwarber isn't a great fit at catcher and of places they might play all they have is LF with Rizzo and Soler locked up at 1B and RF. They can't both play there. Positionally having a catcher that can do what Schwarber can do is an incredible plus. Potentially he could be the best hitting catcher in the game. I don't know the answers bu they're nice problems to have and these things have a way of working themselves out.

I see it as:

Russell 3B
Soler RF
Rizzo 1B
Bryant LF
Schwarber C
Baez 2B
Castro SS
Pitcher
Almora/Alcantara CF

Long term ideal plan. McKenny as a 5th OF.

 

[SilenceS]

A lot of people? Honestly, other than me I've not seen many people talking him up and I've been pretty clear it's my opinion that he will more so than a foregone conclusion.

You know there are more message boards and posters then the 5 we have here?

 

[SilenceS]

No he didn't. He got on a bit of a streak and they called him up specifically so he could struggle and see what he needed to work on.

Close to two moths is more then a streak. From middle of may on last year, Baez killed AAA pitching.

 

[SilenceS]

But even if Schwarber does turn himself into a decent catcher, does it make sense to have what is by all accounts an amazing bat--potentially the best in the Cubs system--playing ~140 games a year?

It isnt the best