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Some Highlights: (from The Athletic) I'm not posting the whole thing..... ya'll need to pay for that. The Athletic is 100% worth it in this sheep's opinion.
In my poll of 18 personnel evaluators, 14 rated Lawrence as the best quarterback. Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson drew three first-place votes and Ohio State’s Justin Fields had the other.
With a first-place vote worth five points, a second worth four and so on, Lawrence led with 84 points followed by Wilson with 64, Fields with 53, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance with 38 and Alabama’s Mac Jones with 30. One point went to Florida’s Kyle Trask.
Perhaps more interesting was the fact not one scout picked Lawrence as the quarterback with the best chance to bust. With 16 scouts willing to toss a dart, the bust count showed 7½ hits for Lance, 3½ for Wilson, three for Fields and two for Jones.
During these hours of interviewing, not one scout said this was a great group of quarterbacks. Yet, so many teams high atop the draft are fully prepared to risk everything on prospects such as Wilson, Fields, Lance and Jones.
+++++
“I think there is more hope than talent,” an AFC scout said. “People are so desperate for these guys. I don’t see (Patrick) Mahomes. I don’t see (Peyton) Manning. I don’t see Aaron Rodgers. I see maybe Russell Wilson.”
With highly-touted, highly-drafted quarterbacks being discarded left and right this offseason, one scout laughed at his profession. “And we’re going to sit up here and act like we know for sure,” he said.
+++++
Two personnel evaluators argued that the Jets, who are expected to draft a quarterback at No. 2, just traded away a capable one in Sam Darnold, their choice at No. 3 in 2018. An NFC executive maintained Darnold would rank No. 1 in this year’s class, and an AFC executive had Darnold ranked ahead of everyone other than Lawrence.
“The biggest mistake made this year will be letting Darnold go to Carolina,” the AFC scout said. “He was caught in a bad situation.”
A year ago, the Packers traded up late in the first round to No. 26 and gambled on Utah State’s Jordan Love.
A fourth-year junior, Love could have been in this draft. Because he didn’t play a down as a rookie, clubs still view him as a draft-eligible player. Seventeen scouts agreed to slot Love as if he were part of this draft. One rated him second, three rated him fourth, four rated him fifth, six rated him sixth, one rated him seventh and two rated him eighth.
“He would fit right in with this group. He really would,” an AFC personnel chief said. “Potential and traits, and you wish you saw it more on tape for a longer period.”
+++++
“There isn’t one scout in America that had Mac Jones and Zach Wilson in the top 5 back in the fall,” said one scout. “If they say that, they’re lying."
+++++
3. Justin Fields, Ohio State (6-2 ½, 227, 4.46 40 time, Round 1): Attempted 39 passes in 12 games as a true freshman at Georgia in 2018 before transferring. Two-time Big Ten offensive player of the year for the Buckeyes.
“Tremendous,” said one scout. “Ran 4.44. He’s got all the tools to do it. I hate to bring up (Dwayne) Haskins and Terrelle Pryor or some of those other (Ohio State) quarterbacks there that haven’t done it.”
Career passer rating of 127.6. Also ran for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns. “He’s a very smart guy and I see all the tools,” a second scout said. “If he’s good, he can be Donovan McNabb. But he’s going to need that redshirt year to kind of mesh.”
Had some fabulous games and a few stinkers in 2020 as well. “He’s a knockoff Cam Newton,” said a third scout. “He’s typically been the biggest, strongest, fastest kid on the field his whole life. He has learned to play football that when they call a pass he drops back and looks. First read, second read, if they’re not there, take off and run. Or if there was pressure, take off and run. At Ohio State, basically the same thing happened. To have him doing full-field reads will be a challenge. At the same time, in the NFL, Cam Newton did that for a decade. If you craft an offense around his skill set and don’t try to jam him into some system that will corral his abilities, then he’s got a chance. If you try to turn him into the classic NFL quarterback, I think you’re going to be frustrated.”
Led the Buckeyes to a 1-2 record in the College Football Playoff. Has small hands (9 1/8). “He is one of the top athletes (at quarterback) of all time,” a fourth scout said. “Best thing Fields does is throw the deep ball. But is he Jameis Winston? That’s who I see. I see the best quarterback in the draft on one play and on the next play I see a guy that makes stupid mistakes. Throws off his back foot a lot. Has a lot of balls tipped. He’s a first-rounder, but I wouldn’t take him until the bottom.” From Kennesaw, Ga.
+++++
4. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (6-foot-4, 224, no 40 time, Round 1): Turned down the chance to play safety at his home-state Big Ten team (Minnesota) and spent three seasons in Fargo. Won all 17 of his starts.
“He and Jordan Love, there might not be much difference between them,” said one scout. “He’s not that accurate with the ball. He’s got some mechanical flaws. He drops his weight and then comes back up to kind of generate some power from his lower body. His accuracy is a little erratic. People say he’s a developmental guy. You’re going to draft this guy and sit him for a year? He needs to play. He’s thrown (318) passes in his life. Mahomes threw 300 passes in six weeks at Texas Tech. But how do you take the guy and throw him out there when he’s this green?”
Compiled a passer rating of 130.1 in 2019. In 2020, against a Central Arkansas team that finished 5-4, he had a passer rating of just 72.8 in a 39-28 victory. He also ran for 143 yards. “He might (bust) because of the competition,” said a second scout. “I would be scared as hell to have to draft him. Maybe you fall in love with the workout, then a year later you’re getting a divorce. He’s good but he’s not Cam Newton, I’ll tell you that right now. Don’t confuse him with Cam Newton. He won a (FBS) national championship. This kid’s coming from North Dakota State.”
Led the Bison to the FCS national title in 2019. Finished with a career passer rating of 125.3. Has small hands (9 1/8). “What scares me?” said a third scout. “Inability to throw a catchable football. If you really watch Trey Lance, all the receivers have to make unbelievable adjustments to his throws. He only throws 16 to 18 times a game because of the offense. He’s not a real thrower. I may be wrong on this but, my God, he’s at least three years away.” From Marshall, Minn.
+++++
5. Mac Jones, Alabama (6-2 ½, 217, 4.81 40 time, Round 1): Redshirted as a three-star recruit in 2017, carried a clipboard in ’18, made four starts for an injured Tua Tagovailoa in ’19 and went 13-0 for the national champs in ’20.
“If you throw away the way he looks, and he looks like shit, he’s a really good player,” said one scout. “People want to roll their eyes when you make a comparison with one of the greatest players ever. Is the guy going to win seven Super Bowls? I don’t know, but there are a lot of Tom Brady traits to this player. He’s got that kind of anticipation, that kind of arm. You want to look at him and say he’s not a good athlete, but he’s a functionally really good quarterback athlete. If you ask Tom Brady to scramble he looked like an old man even when he came out.”
His career passer rating of 138.2 edged Tagovailoa’s 138.1 and Baker Mayfield’s 131.1 at Oklahoma. “I love the kid at Alabama, but he’s not Tom Brady,” said a second scout. “Everyone’s trying to find that next Tom Brady or the next Peyton Manning, the non-mobile bell cow. Those guys are wired different. They’re culture guys. A year ago, they didn’t even think he’d be the starter at Alabama.”
Even wears his socks rolled over like Brady. Hands were 9¾.
“If he goes to San Francisco (No. 3), they’ll protect him with the run game,” said a third scout. “A lot of their passing is based on timing, rhythm and play-action. He should be able to do those things. But does he have an explosive arm? No. Does he have an explosive lower body? No. When push comes to shove, what’s the physical trait that gets him off the hook? Well, he doesn’t really have one. He’s got kind of a bad body … when people said he was going to the Saints in the 20s (No. 28), that made sense to me. To say he’s going to go 3 overall … as ridiculous as taking Zach Wilson is at 2, what’s even more absurd is the Niners taking Mac Jones at 3. I mean, good God.” From Jacksonville, Fla.
+++++
6. Kyle Trask, Florida (6-foot-5, 236, 5.08 40 time, Rounds 2-3): Compared by one scout to Ben Roethlisberger, although he noted that Big Ben (6-foot-5, 241) ran considerably faster (4.86) coming out of Miami (Ohio) in 2004.
“Nobody’s talking about him,” one scout said. “I’d take him over Lance. He’s a big, strong, tough kid. He’ll step up, and he can throw it. He’s got good enough arm strength. Second round.”
A high school backup in Manvel, Texas, he redshirted in 2016 and then didn’t become a starter until 2019. “I see Jared Goff,” said another scout. “He’s strictly a pocket guy. He has a high, three-quarters release. Quick release, tight ball. He can move around the pocket but he doesn’t have quickness. He does have good pocket awareness.”
Finished with a career passer rating of 117.1. “Similar to Jones,” said a third scout. “He’s a game manager. Average arm. He gets in rhythm good, but if he has to reset and throw it’s over with. He’s a backup type. If he ends up starting you’ve got a bad team.” Largest hands (10 1/8) of the top quarterbacks.
+++++
7. Davis Mills, Stanford (6-3 ½, 217, 4.80 40 time, Round 3): Top-ranked recruit out of Duluth, Ga. Redshirted in 2016 as he rehabilitated a high-school knee injury. Teams also have concerns about the condition of his shoulder.
“He’s a little bit more mobile than Trask,” said one scout. “They’re similar, but I’d take Trask. He could be an eventual starter. His accuracy is really good. Has some injury issues. Really hasn’t played a lot. He had command of the offense. He would get the ball out of his hand.”
Went 6-5 as a starter for the Cardinal with a career passer rating of 95.8. “He’s like a one-read robot where he just stares down (receivers),” a second scout said. “Just not a lot of natural feel for the game. His arm’s good enough. He can run some. He’s not a playmaker. He’s just kind of a one-read, systems-type player.” Hands were 9½.
+++++
8. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (6-foot-2 ½, 208, 4.62 40 time, Round 4): Won the job as a true freshman in 2017 and held it all four years.
“Before the season I thought he’d be a free agent,” said one scout. “Now I’ve got him in the fifth or sixth (round). He’s got a strong arm. He’s a good straight-line athlete but he doesn’t adjust well to movement. He’s a little mechanical. He’ll be a competitive backup for someone.”
Showed major improvement as a senior with a passer rating of 104 compared to 71 in 2017, 91.3 in ’18 and 89.2 in ’19. His career mark was 90. “He’s a paint-by-numbers guy,” a second scout said. “He can’t improvise.”
Hands were 9 3/8. “He’s jumpy at everything he does,” a third scout said. “No poise. He’s stiff with his ball carriage and delivery. He can run in a straight line but he’s not fluid and he gets scared when people tackle him.” From San Antonio.
In my poll of 18 personnel evaluators, 14 rated Lawrence as the best quarterback. Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson drew three first-place votes and Ohio State’s Justin Fields had the other.
With a first-place vote worth five points, a second worth four and so on, Lawrence led with 84 points followed by Wilson with 64, Fields with 53, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance with 38 and Alabama’s Mac Jones with 30. One point went to Florida’s Kyle Trask.
Perhaps more interesting was the fact not one scout picked Lawrence as the quarterback with the best chance to bust. With 16 scouts willing to toss a dart, the bust count showed 7½ hits for Lance, 3½ for Wilson, three for Fields and two for Jones.
During these hours of interviewing, not one scout said this was a great group of quarterbacks. Yet, so many teams high atop the draft are fully prepared to risk everything on prospects such as Wilson, Fields, Lance and Jones.
+++++
“I think there is more hope than talent,” an AFC scout said. “People are so desperate for these guys. I don’t see (Patrick) Mahomes. I don’t see (Peyton) Manning. I don’t see Aaron Rodgers. I see maybe Russell Wilson.”
With highly-touted, highly-drafted quarterbacks being discarded left and right this offseason, one scout laughed at his profession. “And we’re going to sit up here and act like we know for sure,” he said.
+++++
Two personnel evaluators argued that the Jets, who are expected to draft a quarterback at No. 2, just traded away a capable one in Sam Darnold, their choice at No. 3 in 2018. An NFC executive maintained Darnold would rank No. 1 in this year’s class, and an AFC executive had Darnold ranked ahead of everyone other than Lawrence.
“The biggest mistake made this year will be letting Darnold go to Carolina,” the AFC scout said. “He was caught in a bad situation.”
A year ago, the Packers traded up late in the first round to No. 26 and gambled on Utah State’s Jordan Love.
A fourth-year junior, Love could have been in this draft. Because he didn’t play a down as a rookie, clubs still view him as a draft-eligible player. Seventeen scouts agreed to slot Love as if he were part of this draft. One rated him second, three rated him fourth, four rated him fifth, six rated him sixth, one rated him seventh and two rated him eighth.
“He would fit right in with this group. He really would,” an AFC personnel chief said. “Potential and traits, and you wish you saw it more on tape for a longer period.”
+++++
“There isn’t one scout in America that had Mac Jones and Zach Wilson in the top 5 back in the fall,” said one scout. “If they say that, they’re lying."
+++++
3. Justin Fields, Ohio State (6-2 ½, 227, 4.46 40 time, Round 1): Attempted 39 passes in 12 games as a true freshman at Georgia in 2018 before transferring. Two-time Big Ten offensive player of the year for the Buckeyes.
“Tremendous,” said one scout. “Ran 4.44. He’s got all the tools to do it. I hate to bring up (Dwayne) Haskins and Terrelle Pryor or some of those other (Ohio State) quarterbacks there that haven’t done it.”
Career passer rating of 127.6. Also ran for 1,133 yards and 19 touchdowns. “He’s a very smart guy and I see all the tools,” a second scout said. “If he’s good, he can be Donovan McNabb. But he’s going to need that redshirt year to kind of mesh.”
Had some fabulous games and a few stinkers in 2020 as well. “He’s a knockoff Cam Newton,” said a third scout. “He’s typically been the biggest, strongest, fastest kid on the field his whole life. He has learned to play football that when they call a pass he drops back and looks. First read, second read, if they’re not there, take off and run. Or if there was pressure, take off and run. At Ohio State, basically the same thing happened. To have him doing full-field reads will be a challenge. At the same time, in the NFL, Cam Newton did that for a decade. If you craft an offense around his skill set and don’t try to jam him into some system that will corral his abilities, then he’s got a chance. If you try to turn him into the classic NFL quarterback, I think you’re going to be frustrated.”
Led the Buckeyes to a 1-2 record in the College Football Playoff. Has small hands (9 1/8). “He is one of the top athletes (at quarterback) of all time,” a fourth scout said. “Best thing Fields does is throw the deep ball. But is he Jameis Winston? That’s who I see. I see the best quarterback in the draft on one play and on the next play I see a guy that makes stupid mistakes. Throws off his back foot a lot. Has a lot of balls tipped. He’s a first-rounder, but I wouldn’t take him until the bottom.” From Kennesaw, Ga.
+++++
4. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (6-foot-4, 224, no 40 time, Round 1): Turned down the chance to play safety at his home-state Big Ten team (Minnesota) and spent three seasons in Fargo. Won all 17 of his starts.
“He and Jordan Love, there might not be much difference between them,” said one scout. “He’s not that accurate with the ball. He’s got some mechanical flaws. He drops his weight and then comes back up to kind of generate some power from his lower body. His accuracy is a little erratic. People say he’s a developmental guy. You’re going to draft this guy and sit him for a year? He needs to play. He’s thrown (318) passes in his life. Mahomes threw 300 passes in six weeks at Texas Tech. But how do you take the guy and throw him out there when he’s this green?”
Compiled a passer rating of 130.1 in 2019. In 2020, against a Central Arkansas team that finished 5-4, he had a passer rating of just 72.8 in a 39-28 victory. He also ran for 143 yards. “He might (bust) because of the competition,” said a second scout. “I would be scared as hell to have to draft him. Maybe you fall in love with the workout, then a year later you’re getting a divorce. He’s good but he’s not Cam Newton, I’ll tell you that right now. Don’t confuse him with Cam Newton. He won a (FBS) national championship. This kid’s coming from North Dakota State.”
Led the Bison to the FCS national title in 2019. Finished with a career passer rating of 125.3. Has small hands (9 1/8). “What scares me?” said a third scout. “Inability to throw a catchable football. If you really watch Trey Lance, all the receivers have to make unbelievable adjustments to his throws. He only throws 16 to 18 times a game because of the offense. He’s not a real thrower. I may be wrong on this but, my God, he’s at least three years away.” From Marshall, Minn.
+++++
5. Mac Jones, Alabama (6-2 ½, 217, 4.81 40 time, Round 1): Redshirted as a three-star recruit in 2017, carried a clipboard in ’18, made four starts for an injured Tua Tagovailoa in ’19 and went 13-0 for the national champs in ’20.
“If you throw away the way he looks, and he looks like shit, he’s a really good player,” said one scout. “People want to roll their eyes when you make a comparison with one of the greatest players ever. Is the guy going to win seven Super Bowls? I don’t know, but there are a lot of Tom Brady traits to this player. He’s got that kind of anticipation, that kind of arm. You want to look at him and say he’s not a good athlete, but he’s a functionally really good quarterback athlete. If you ask Tom Brady to scramble he looked like an old man even when he came out.”
His career passer rating of 138.2 edged Tagovailoa’s 138.1 and Baker Mayfield’s 131.1 at Oklahoma. “I love the kid at Alabama, but he’s not Tom Brady,” said a second scout. “Everyone’s trying to find that next Tom Brady or the next Peyton Manning, the non-mobile bell cow. Those guys are wired different. They’re culture guys. A year ago, they didn’t even think he’d be the starter at Alabama.”
Even wears his socks rolled over like Brady. Hands were 9¾.
“If he goes to San Francisco (No. 3), they’ll protect him with the run game,” said a third scout. “A lot of their passing is based on timing, rhythm and play-action. He should be able to do those things. But does he have an explosive arm? No. Does he have an explosive lower body? No. When push comes to shove, what’s the physical trait that gets him off the hook? Well, he doesn’t really have one. He’s got kind of a bad body … when people said he was going to the Saints in the 20s (No. 28), that made sense to me. To say he’s going to go 3 overall … as ridiculous as taking Zach Wilson is at 2, what’s even more absurd is the Niners taking Mac Jones at 3. I mean, good God.” From Jacksonville, Fla.
+++++
6. Kyle Trask, Florida (6-foot-5, 236, 5.08 40 time, Rounds 2-3): Compared by one scout to Ben Roethlisberger, although he noted that Big Ben (6-foot-5, 241) ran considerably faster (4.86) coming out of Miami (Ohio) in 2004.
“Nobody’s talking about him,” one scout said. “I’d take him over Lance. He’s a big, strong, tough kid. He’ll step up, and he can throw it. He’s got good enough arm strength. Second round.”
A high school backup in Manvel, Texas, he redshirted in 2016 and then didn’t become a starter until 2019. “I see Jared Goff,” said another scout. “He’s strictly a pocket guy. He has a high, three-quarters release. Quick release, tight ball. He can move around the pocket but he doesn’t have quickness. He does have good pocket awareness.”
Finished with a career passer rating of 117.1. “Similar to Jones,” said a third scout. “He’s a game manager. Average arm. He gets in rhythm good, but if he has to reset and throw it’s over with. He’s a backup type. If he ends up starting you’ve got a bad team.” Largest hands (10 1/8) of the top quarterbacks.
+++++
7. Davis Mills, Stanford (6-3 ½, 217, 4.80 40 time, Round 3): Top-ranked recruit out of Duluth, Ga. Redshirted in 2016 as he rehabilitated a high-school knee injury. Teams also have concerns about the condition of his shoulder.
“He’s a little bit more mobile than Trask,” said one scout. “They’re similar, but I’d take Trask. He could be an eventual starter. His accuracy is really good. Has some injury issues. Really hasn’t played a lot. He had command of the offense. He would get the ball out of his hand.”
Went 6-5 as a starter for the Cardinal with a career passer rating of 95.8. “He’s like a one-read robot where he just stares down (receivers),” a second scout said. “Just not a lot of natural feel for the game. His arm’s good enough. He can run some. He’s not a playmaker. He’s just kind of a one-read, systems-type player.” Hands were 9½.
+++++
8. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (6-foot-2 ½, 208, 4.62 40 time, Round 4): Won the job as a true freshman in 2017 and held it all four years.
“Before the season I thought he’d be a free agent,” said one scout. “Now I’ve got him in the fifth or sixth (round). He’s got a strong arm. He’s a good straight-line athlete but he doesn’t adjust well to movement. He’s a little mechanical. He’ll be a competitive backup for someone.”
Showed major improvement as a senior with a passer rating of 104 compared to 71 in 2017, 91.3 in ’18 and 89.2 in ’19. His career mark was 90. “He’s a paint-by-numbers guy,” a second scout said. “He can’t improvise.”
Hands were 9 3/8. “He’s jumpy at everything he does,” a third scout said. “No poise. He’s stiff with his ball carriage and delivery. He can run in a straight line but he’s not fluid and he gets scared when people tackle him.” From San Antonio.
