Bort Report: Official Scouting Report on This Years Quarterback Class

[Bort]

7. Brad Kaaya, Miami

Games watched:
2015: Nebraska, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
2016: Virginia, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt

Like Watson, this was a difficult evaluation. Kaaya had the simultaneous problems of (1) having tissue paper for an offensive line; and (2) being physically incapable of moving his feet. I'm only slightly exaggerating. Kaaya was basically getting slaughtered on every play. I started feeling sorry for him and wanted to give him a higher ranking simply based on how unfair the whole situation seemed.

Kaaya has average arm strength and phenomenal accuracy. He has pretty good velocity on his fastball. He's super accurate up-down, left-right, any way you slice it. He also throws great touch passes. He also throws an extremely accurate deep ball. He's under duress constantly because his offensive line is terrible, but he's not necessarily good under pressure. Even when he completes the pass, his teammates are scraping him off the turf afterward because he has no ability to get out of the way of pass rushers.

Kaaya has good height at 6'4, but he looks lankier than the other prospects. Nonetheless, he missed only 1 game in 3 seasons despite taking severe beatings in nearly every game, so he has shown excellent durability. On the other hand, his athleticism is so bad that it could prevent him from ever being an effective NFL quarterback. He has terrible feet. His agility is awful almost to the point of being clumsy.

Kaaya does have good awareness and goes through his progressions well. He does a good job getting rid of the ball on time to open receivers. Given how bad his offensive line was and how unathletic he is, it's actually impressive that he didn't get sacked even more than he did.

Overall, Kaaya has impressive arm talent, but a complete lack of athleticism. His arm strength is good enough, and his accuracy at all levels is excellent. He also has good height for a pocket passer. Unfortunately, I think he might simply be too unathletic to play in the NFL. He would absolutely require a great offensive line to be effective.

Draft Projection: 4th Round

Bonus gif for fun:

 

[AussieBear]

dost hath juevos.....i commend thee for thou dedicacioun and thy durst 2 eval the qbs without whiteboard n ova mentals knowledge....

 

[Adipost]

Thanks for the evaluations. Great job.

 

[Enasic]

bort>everyone who keeps spouting off their opinion as gospel for hours on end, day after day

 

[Bort]

I love Mahomes but no one has any idea of he can read or play withing a scheme. Lot's of guys that can throw really well that were fails at NFL QB. I roll the dice on him but not until the bottom 1/2 of one or after Trubs that did prefer to stay put and read more.

Texas Tech does run pro style plays where the quarterback is asked to make reads and go through progressions. In fact, I think one of the major reasons Webb lost his starting job to Mahomes was because Webb made too many bad reads and threw too many interceptions.

Also, even if you didn't watch all of his games, just the stat of only 10 interceptions on 591 attempts is impressive.

 

[Bort]

Nice write-ups. I'd like a bit more on what you see as limitations and things to be improved upon, and likelihood they will be improved to NFL standards IYO.


For example, while this appears like a good scramble & heads up play,



Did anyone else see the streaking receiver & DB fly by from R to L, with the ball just barely missing them/tipped? Granted, it's a very limited play sample, but is Mitch a gunslinger or safe with the ball? Maybe not the best gif to choose I guess.

Good stuff, look forward to more.

One of the reasons I picked that gif is because I thought the fly-by looked cool. The camera angle makes it look closer than it was.

Also, Trubiski only had 6 interceptions last year on 447 attempts, so he's been extremely safe with the ball.

 

[Monsieur Tirets]

i wonder how accurate reports are of kaaya lacking leadership? based on what ive read about him they seem like an odd claim. anyway, i still think hes paces guy and as a pure passer i like him the best. yes, he struggles when pressured, but not always, plus if his mental makeup is good enough that prep and football iq can help him develop into a top pocket passer capable of getting into the right plays and knowing where to go with the ball quickly then it doesnt matter too much. some of the best struggle mightily with pressure, thing is they make it hard to get said pressure on them.

as a second or 3rd round pick i find him the most intriguing prospect. probably the most upside as a pocket passer imo. ive done a bit of a 180 when it comes to kayya. in part because he was the first of the prospects i watched and was hoping for more from the rest that i didnt really get and because in the end i value the ability to play from the pocket as a passer above all else.

and i dont get where the terrible feet comes from, he has the best mechanics including footwork out of all the prospects. do they breakdown when pressured? yes. but thats not the same thing. and lack of agility/athleticism doesnt mean anything in and of itself when it comes to pocket passers. manning and brady( oddly, until recently) were two of the least athletic "athletes" imaginable.

 

[run and shoot]

2. Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina

Games watched:
2015: None
2016: Pittsburgh, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Duke, NC State, Stanford

There isn't that much film on Trubisky since he only started for 1 year. Thus, it may see like a counterintuitive opinion, but I think he's the safest quarterback pick in this year's class. I think he's someone you can safely pencil in as an NFL starter for the next decade or so. The main reason is that he doesn't have a discernible weakness. He's at least pretty good in every single category and trait one could reasonably evaluate in a quarterback. Perhaps, if he played another year in college, some brilliant defensive coordinator would notice a weakness in his game and exploit it, and other teams would catch on, and he'd tumble down draft charts. But I doubt it. To the contrary, as I will discuss further, the fact he is so polished despite only 1 year of starting is something that I view as a strength.

First, his arm talent is very good. He's not Mahomes or Kizer, but he does get good velocity on his fastball and good distance on his deep throws. He's also extremely accurate. Like I mentioned in my Mahomes post, I think Trubisky is tied for third place in accuracy in this class after Kaaya and Peterman. He also throws with excellent touch. The thing I like most about his arm, though, is that, like Mahomes, Trubisky throws effectively from multiple arm angles, and is not at all bothered by being forced to throw sidearm, off his back foot, running in either direction, etc, which I think is a great trait that projects well into the NFL.

I suppose if you insisted on me identifying a weakness, it would be that he's a bit short for an NFL quarterback at just over 6'2. He plays taller than that, though, due to his ability to throw from multiple arm angles and adjust his release point. He's also an athletic, muscular 6'2, much like Mahomes and Watson, and I don't see his height holding him back in the NFL. He's also a great runner as a quarterback. He's fast, agile, and quick. He doesn't break tackles like Mahomes, Watson, and Kizer, but he avoids tackles entirely with his quickness and agility.

He has phenomenal awareness, arguably the best overall awareness of any quarterback in this class (Peterman is the one rguably better). I would rotate players so I wasn't watching the same guy for hours straight, and every time I watched Trubisky after watching Kizer or Webb, it was such a jarring contrast. If there is a blitzer coming, Trubisky will be aware of it. If there is a receiver in a soft spot in a zone, Trubisky will be aware of it. If there is an open receiver anywhere on the field, Trubisky will generally be aware of it and throw the ball to him. He goes through his progressions better and faster than any other quarterback in this class. What makes it even more impressive to me is that he has such great awareness despite only being a one year starter in college. I don't know whether this is attributable to "vision" or "reading defenses" or "spending time in the film room" or whatever the fuck people attribute these things to, but Trubisky has that quality.

He also generally makes very good decisions (I think this can be attributed in large part to seeming to always know where the open receiver is). He also played well in close games and really carried his team at times. He definitely plays well under pressure and responds well to adversity. Also, I can only recall one single time he made a completely boneheaded interception (a pick 6 in the 2nd quarter against Virginia Tech). Almost all of his interceptions would fall into the "good" interception category (deep down the field on third and long, late in a game when trailing, etc).

Overall, I think he's a safer pick than Mahomes, but he doesn't have the same upside, so I'd put him just slightly behind Mahomes. Nonetheless, Trubisky and Mahomes are, in my opinion, the two elite quarterback prospects in this draft, and both are head and shoulders above the rest of the prospects.

Draft Projection: Top 5 overall pick

Bonus gif for fun:

Virginia Tech Hokies 34 - 3 North Carolina M. Trubisky13-33, 58 YDS, 2 INT ( the other 1year starting qb did not turn the ball over and threw 2 Td passes)


Duke 28-27 North Carolina M. Trubisky 24/33 297 3 INTS. 2 QBR 78.3 (this was a upset by a 4-6, 1-5 Conf freshman Qb-led Duke team. The freshman DID NOT have a T.O.)


North Carolina State 28 - North Carolina 21 Trubisky QBR 66.8 ( North Carolina was the favorite and again was upset see Duke game)

HYUNDAI SUN BOWL ( "big stage game"....sort of speak)
Stanford 25-North Carolina 23 Trubisky QBR 43.3 (3 T.O.'s by Trubisky, 2 picks 1 fumble)

 

[run and shoot]

i like mahomes in that the kid can play, but at the same time i worry if his game can translate to the nfl. plus his mechanics, or lack thereof, scare the hell out of me. favre was a gunslinger, but he still understood the nfl game and he he was capable of playing with sound mechanics. mahomes is a big risk imo.

A true "gunslinger" was a Moon or Marino. Farve made a lotta bad decisions that cost GB a chance to be in more playoff games.

 

[wazzupi]

give me mahomes in the first or kaaya in the 3rd round or below.

 

[Bearly]

2. Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina

Games watched:
2015: None
2016: Pittsburgh, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Duke, NC State, Stanford

There isn't that much film on Trubisky since he only started for 1 year. Thus, it may see like a counterintuitive opinion, but I think he's the safest quarterback pick in this year's class. I think he's someone you can safely pencil in as an NFL starter for the next decade or so. The main reason is that he doesn't have a discernible weakness. He's at least pretty good in every single category and trait one could reasonably evaluate in a quarterback. Perhaps, if he played another year in college, some brilliant defensive coordinator would notice a weakness in his game and exploit it, and other teams would catch on, and he'd tumble down draft charts. But I doubt it. To the contrary, as I will discuss further, the fact he is so polished despite only 1 year of starting is something that I view as a strength.

First, his arm talent is very good. He's not Mahomes or Kizer, but he does get good velocity on his fastball and good distance on his deep throws. He's also extremely accurate. Like I mentioned in my Mahomes post, I think Trubisky is tied for third place in accuracy in this class after Kaaya and Peterman. He also throws with excellent touch. The thing I like most about his arm, though, is that, like Mahomes, Trubisky throws effectively from multiple arm angles, and is not at all bothered by being forced to throw sidearm, off his back foot, running in either direction, etc, which I think is a great trait that projects well into the NFL.

I suppose if you insisted on me identifying a weakness, it would be that he's a bit short for an NFL quarterback at just over 6'2. He plays taller than that, though, due to his ability to throw from multiple arm angles and adjust his release point. He's also an athletic, muscular 6'2, much like Mahomes and Watson, and I don't see his height holding him back in the NFL. He's also a great runner as a quarterback. He's fast, agile, and quick. He doesn't break tackles like Mahomes, Watson, and Kizer, but he avoids tackles entirely with his quickness and agility.

He has phenomenal awareness, arguably the best overall awareness of any quarterback in this class (Peterman is the one rguably better). I would rotate players so I wasn't watching the same guy for hours straight, and every time I watched Trubisky after watching Kizer or Webb, it was such a jarring contrast. If there is a blitzer coming, Trubisky will be aware of it. If there is a receiver in a soft spot in a zone, Trubisky will be aware of it. If there is an open receiver anywhere on the field, Trubisky will generally be aware of it and throw the ball to him. He goes through his progressions better and faster than any other quarterback in this class. What makes it even more impressive to me is that he has such great awareness despite only being a one year starter in college. I don't know whether this is attributable to "vision" or "reading defenses" or "spending time in the film room" or whatever the fuck people attribute these things to, but Trubisky has that quality.

He also generally makes very good decisions (I think this can be attributed in large part to seeming to always know where the open receiver is). He also played well in close games and really carried his team at times. He definitely plays well under pressure and responds well to adversity. Also, I can only recall one single time he made a completely boneheaded interception (a pick 6 in the 2nd quarter against Virginia Tech). Almost all of his interceptions would fall into the "good" interception category (deep down the field on third and long, late in a game when trailing, etc).

Overall, I think he's a safer pick than Mahomes, but he doesn't have the same upside, so I'd put him just slightly behind Mahomes. Nonetheless, Trubisky and Mahomes are, in my opinion, the two elite quarterback prospects in this draft, and both are head and shoulders above the rest of the prospects.

Draft Projection: Top 5 overall pick

Bonus gif for fun:

And why I've had him as my #1. 2nd best overall arm to Mahomes with better mechanics and easily has the best tape of the bunch. Hardest thing for any young QB is decision making and he was the best at it of those that have the physical traits to go early. Peterman was also good but his arm, escape ability and ability throw when flushed aren't as good. He missed reads like they all did but if you look at the entirety of his work, they were more the exception than the others.

 

[Bearly]

It's not like he was freewheeling on purpose, his line was bad. I also think the scheme stuff is overblown. They ran plays straight out of the Patriots, and Steelers playbooks and they asked him to scan his progressions. For all intents and purposes his scheme was more advanced than Watson and Trubisky's. He was in charge at the line as well. Kingsbury knows what he's doing with their QB's.

I generally agree with you though. It takes a lot more than a crazy arm. I think he has the intangibles to put it together where a Jay or J'marcus might not have though.

Schoolyard ball. I think he's got it as well but you can't know that from what we saw. He won't be able to extend plays that way at the next level. Quicker decisions will be needed.

 

[Bearly]

7. Brad Kaaya, Miami

Games watched:
2015: Nebraska, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
2016: Virginia, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt

Like Watson, this was a difficult evaluation. Kaaya had the simultaneous problems of (1) having tissue paper for an offensive line; and (2) being physically incapable of moving his feet. I'm only slightly exaggerating. Kaaya was basically getting slaughtered on every play. I started feeling sorry for him and wanted to give him a higher ranking simply based on how unfair the whole situation seemed.

Kaaya has average arm strength and phenomenal accuracy. He has pretty good velocity on his fastball. He's super accurate up-down, left-right, any way you slice it. He also throws great touch passes. He also throws an extremely accurate deep ball. He's under duress constantly because his offensive line is terrible, but he's not necessarily good under pressure. Even when he completes the pass, his teammates are scraping him off the turf afterward because he has no ability to get out of the way of pass rushers.

Kaaya has good height at 6'4, but he looks lankier than the other prospects. Nonetheless, he missed only 1 game in 3 seasons despite taking severe beatings in nearly every game, so he has shown excellent durability. On the other hand, his athleticism is so bad that it could prevent him from ever being an effective NFL quarterback. He has terrible feet. His agility is awful almost to the point of being clumsy.

Kaaya does have good awareness and goes through his progressions well. He does a good job getting rid of the ball on time to open receivers. Given how bad his offensive line was and how unathletic he is, it's actually impressive that he didn't get sacked even more than he did.

Overall, Kaaya has impressive arm talent, but a complete lack of athleticism. His arm strength is good enough, and his accuracy at all levels is excellent. He also has good height for a pocket passer. Unfortunately, I think he might simply be too unathletic to play in the NFL. He would absolutely require a great offensive line to be effective.

Draft Projection: 4th Round

Bonus gif for fun:

The accuracy part is interesting because I completely agree about Kaaya being so on the vast majority of his throws but once you move him off his spot or he needs to go downfield, guys like Trubisly are better. I think the ability to throw from different angles and on the move is underrated by almost everyone. You want a guy the favors a pocket and scans but you don't always get it and the ability to snap one off going sideways can be the difference maker at crunch time. I would give the situational accuracy win to Mahomes and then Trubisky over Kaaya even though Kaaya is remarkably accurate to 20 yards with his feet under him. He also loses more velocity than the other 2 when he can't throw in rhythm. As slow as Glennon is and he's also not strong armed, he can still side arm, buggy whip one when running left

 

[Bearly]

A true "gunslinger" was a Moon or Marino. Farve made a lotta bad decisions that cost GB a chance to be in more playoff games.

I guess you don't understand the term. Gunslingers think they can make chicken salad out of chicken shit.

 

[Bearly]

Oh, and thanks Bort. These are great.

 

[Wintermute]

Excellent thread. Definitely re-thinking which QB I would like to see them take.

 

[playthrough2001]

Well done Bort... Thanks for taking the time.

 

[iffybiz]

3. Deshaun Watson, Clemson

Games watched:
2015: Alabama, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Louisville, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, South Carolina
2016: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Louisville, South Carolina, Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Florida State

This was the most difficult evaluation for me. There is so much to like about Watson. On the other hand, his weakness is throwing, which is, you know, kind of an important thing for an NFL quarterback to be able to do. How much does athleticism and toughness and leadership and being a "winner" compensate for mediocre arm talent? I'm not entirely sure, which is why this was the toughest evaluation for me.

First, his arm is pretty mediocre overall. His fastball isn't very fast. Interestingly, his arm looks stronger when he's throwing deep rainbows than it does when he's throwing 15 yard fastballs. The flip side of that is his accuracy on the deep rainbow throws is flat-out bad whereas he actually has pretty good accuracy on the 15 yard fastballs. The result is that he doesn't make any specific type of throw particularly well. His fastballs are accurate, but not fast enough to fit into tight windows. His deep rainbows get good distance, but he can't land them accurately with any consistency. He also doesn't throw with very good touch. His accuracy is pretty good left-right and up-down, but he often overthrows or underthrows touch passes. I suppose the one thing he can do consistently well with his arm is throw an accurate pass less than 20 yards that doesn't require any touch and doesn't need to arrive to its target in a hurry. For this reason, I think he'll really struggle against zones in the NFL.

He has a very similar body type to the other two guys I've posted about so far at 6'2 with a thick, muscular frame. I don't think the height will be an issue in the NFL since he's not going to be standing in the pocket throwing over people. That just isn't his game. His game is going to be relying on his athleticism, and he does have great athleticism for a quarterback. He's built like a running back, and he runs like a running back. He has explosive quickness, the ability to break tackles, and good top end speed.

He also has very good awareness. His pocket presence is excellent, and when combined with his strength and athleticism, allow him to create a lot of extra time to throw. He also does a very good job going through his progressions and finding the open receiver. If he does end up having success in the NFL as a pocket passer, it will likely be due to the fact that his awareness and ability to read who is going to come open before they do will make up for the lack of velocity on his passes and other arm issues.

Moreover, he is not at all bothered by pressure, and in fact, plays at his best in the biggest games and when under the most pressure. He played in 2 national championship games. I actually thought his best game was in the loss to Alabama in the national championship his sophomore year. His junior year, against Alabama again, he led his team to an exciting comeback win after taking an absolute beating from a great, physical Alabama defense. He's extremely physically and mentally tough. He's one of those guys who will just keep coming at you.

One other thing to note about Watson is that he throws on the run pretty well, which is odd for a guy with a weaker arm. It makes me think that he can potentially improve the velocity on his fastball. If he could manage to improve the velocity on his fastball and the accuracy on his deep ball, he could develop into a really good NFL quarterback. If not, then I think you're looking at a read-option type guy who needs to make plays with his legs to be successful.

Overall, it's basically a question as to whether his intangibles and athleticism make up for his mediocre arm. There's also a chance his arm improves, but that doesn't happen very often. He also might end up being a guy who has a couple successful seasons as a read-option quarterback and then fizzles. If I didn't place so much value on intelligence and awareness, I'd probably have him significantly lower, but I do place a lot of value on intelligence and awareness, so here he is...

Draft Projection: Late 1st/Early 2nd Round

Bonus gif for fun:

While agree with some of what you said, I think the arm strength issue is overblown. It looks to me as if the focus of the offense at Clemson was to get the ball out as quick as possible. Most of the short and many of the intermediate he just uses his arm vs. stepping into his throws on the deep balls. This is why when he throws on the run or throws the deep ball, his arm appears much stronger, he's putting his legs and body into the throw.
If you wish to, check out his throwing from the pro day and in Gruden's QB camp, he's already corrected many of his flaws (Kudos to Jordan Palmer) including getting better loft on his deep throws.
Someone here has likened him to Joe Montana. I think that's a good comp, Joe never had that great fastball either and frankly wasn't as good as Watson in college.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[rawdawg]

The accuracy part is interesting because I completely agree about Kaaya being so on the vast majority of his throws but once you move him off his spot or he needs to go downfield, guys like Trubisly are better. I think the ability to throw from different angles and on the move is underrated by almost everyone.

You're going to love Josh Allen next year then.

Oh and very good analysis Bort. Appreciate it.

 

[remydat]

2. Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina

Games watched:
2015: None
2016: Pittsburgh, Florida State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Duke, NC State, Stanford

There isn't that much film on Trubisky since he only started for 1 year. Thus, it may see like a counterintuitive opinion, but I think he's the safest quarterback pick in this year's class. I think he's someone you can safely pencil in as an NFL starter for the next decade or so. The main reason is that he doesn't have a discernible weakness. He's at least pretty good in every single category and trait one could reasonably evaluate in a quarterback. Perhaps, if he played another year in college, some brilliant defensive coordinator would notice a weakness in his game and exploit it, and other teams would catch on, and he'd tumble down draft charts. But I doubt it. To the contrary, as I will discuss further, the fact he is so polished despite only 1 year of starting is something that I view as a strength.

First, his arm talent is very good. He's not Mahomes or Kizer, but he does get good velocity on his fastball and good distance on his deep throws. He's also extremely accurate. Like I mentioned in my Mahomes post, I think Trubisky is tied for third place in accuracy in this class after Kaaya and Peterman. He also throws with excellent touch. The thing I like most about his arm, though, is that, like Mahomes, Trubisky throws effectively from multiple arm angles, and is not at all bothered by being forced to throw sidearm, off his back foot, running in either direction, etc, which I think is a great trait that projects well into the NFL.

I suppose if you insisted on me identifying a weakness, it would be that he's a bit short for an NFL quarterback at just over 6'2. He plays taller than that, though, due to his ability to throw from multiple arm angles and adjust his release point. He's also an athletic, muscular 6'2, much like Mahomes and Watson, and I don't see his height holding him back in the NFL. He's also a great runner as a quarterback. He's fast, agile, and quick. He doesn't break tackles like Mahomes, Watson, and Kizer, but he avoids tackles entirely with his quickness and agility.

He has phenomenal awareness, arguably the best overall awareness of any quarterback in this class (Peterman is the one rguably better). I would rotate players so I wasn't watching the same guy for hours straight, and every time I watched Trubisky after watching Kizer or Webb, it was such a jarring contrast. If there is a blitzer coming, Trubisky will be aware of it. If there is a receiver in a soft spot in a zone, Trubisky will be aware of it. If there is an open receiver anywhere on the field, Trubisky will generally be aware of it and throw the ball to him. He goes through his progressions better and faster than any other quarterback in this class. What makes it even more impressive to me is that he has such great awareness despite only being a one year starter in college. I don't know whether this is attributable to "vision" or "reading defenses" or "spending time in the film room" or whatever the fuck people attribute these things to, but Trubisky has that quality.

He also generally makes very good decisions (I think this can be attributed in large part to seeming to always know where the open receiver is). He also played well in close games and really carried his team at times. He definitely plays well under pressure and responds well to adversity. Also, I can only recall one single time he made a completely boneheaded interception (a pick 6 in the 2nd quarter against Virginia Tech). Almost all of his interceptions would fall into the "good" interception category (deep down the field on third and long, late in a game when trailing, etc).

Overall, I think he's a safer pick than Mahomes, but he doesn't have the same upside, so I'd put him just slightly behind Mahomes. Nonetheless, Trubisky and Mahomes are, in my opinion, the two elite quarterback prospects in this draft, and both are head and shoulders above the rest of the prospects.

Draft Projection: Top 5 overall pick

Bonus gif for fun:

Not sure I would call throwing picks late in the game against Duke for example on 1st and 10 or his interceptions against Stanford that gave Standford the lead good interceptions.

His strength is not that he threw good interceptions. It's that he threw so few of them. Otherwise good writeup.