Brewers at Cubs IST

[beckdawg]

He meant MIL is 6-2 in the last 8 against the Cubs. And you know that but you're pretending not to for some reason.

Why the fuck if that's his intention would you split up a series? Their last 8 games wouldn't include the first game of the june 11th-13th series which they won. I mean fine if you're going to cherry pick games but that's a rather arbitrary way to look at games. If you're going to look at the games why start there? That doesn't even fit into the "they are shit in the 2nd half" narrative.

The games vs MIL look like this

April 5th-8th @MIL
W 8-0
L 5-4
W 5-2
W 3-0

April 26th-29th @wrigley
W1-0
W3-2
W3-0
W2-0

June 11th-13th @mil
W7-2 F/11
L4-0
L1-0

August 14th-15th @wrigley
L7-0
W8-4

Sep 3rd-5th @mil
L4-3
L11-1
W6-4

Sep 10-12th @wrigley
L3-2
?
?

More over the post he was responding to was talking about the advantage of playing at home. Against MIL the cubs are 5-2 at wrigley.

Edit: and if we're talking about who has an edge vs another team, in all of the games combined the cubs have outscored MIL 56-49 or roughly half a run per game.

 

[beckdawg]

No I thought that was the record because that was being posted on the Cub site and I’m at work and don’t have the time to honestly fact check.

Which is perfectly fine honestly.

I see it as Lester might have gotten injured.

Hamels had a human episode.

Smyly got shut down.

Edwards just plain sucks now.

Duesing still sucks.

Man I could go on here but the momentum is not in their favor and Mil is in the catbirds seat right now.

They lose this series hang it up.

The only way this gets right is to kick the shit out of them vs depend on others to do it. Man up boys.

Duesing and Smyly really weren't part of the team. I mean sure you'd like them to contribute but it's not like they were great and they were suddenly lost to injury. Edwards I wouldn't say sucks but he's clearly got some issues to work through. I hate when people phrase things that way because it's not like he lost the talent he's always had. He's just going through a bad stretch. Players who suck don't have talent. He does. That's neither here nor there for your point which is they lack him however. As to that point, Morrow could return this weekend. Honestly they don't have to have Edwards to make the playoffs. They will need him in the playoffs for sure but between Cischek, Strop, Chavez and hopefully Morrow this weekend the bullpen is decent.

As for MIL being in the catbird seat, you and I have entirely different views on what the catbird seat is. MIL doesn't even hold their own destiny in their hands. Cubs have more games to play so as long as they lose fewer games from here on out than MIL there's nothing MIL can do to change that. Clearly you're saying you think they are more likely to preform better over the remainder of the season but I am not really sure I agree. They are 38-35(.521) on the road this year and as mentioned still have 8 of their remaining 17 games on the road. If they simply preform to their season win rate for home away they go 6-3 at home and 4-4 on the road or 10-7 meaning the cubs need 94 wins. If the cubs perform to their season win rate for home/away they go 8-4 at home and 4-3 on the road which is 12-7 and gives them 95 wins.

Even if the cubs lose both of the remaining games vs MIL, it just tightens the race to an uncomfortable level. It doesn't hand MIL anything. If you wanna say from there on out MIL is favored to win I think that's fair but they still would have to play the games and not let up any.

 

[CSF77]

Duesing and Smyly really weren't part of the team. I mean sure you'd like them to contribute but it's not like they were great and they were suddenly lost to injury. Edwards I wouldn't say sucks but he's clearly got some issues to work through. I hate when people phrase things that way because it's not like he lost the talent he's always had. He's just going through a bad stretch. Players who suck don't have talent. He does. That's neither here nor there for your point which is they lack him however. As to that point, Morrow could return this weekend. Honestly they don't have to have Edwards to make the playoffs. They will need him in the playoffs for sure but between Cischek, Strop, Chavez and hopefully Morrow this weekend the bullpen is decent.

As for MIL being in the catbird seat, you and I have entirely different views on what the catbird seat is. MIL doesn't even hold their own destiny in their hands. Cubs have more games to play so as long as they lose fewer games from here on out than MIL there's nothing MIL can do to change that. Clearly you're saying you think they are more likely to preform better over the remainder of the season but I am not really sure I agree. They are 38-35(.521) on the road this year and as mentioned still have 8 of their remaining 17 games on the road. If they simply preform to their season win rate for home away they go 6-3 at home and 4-4 on the road or 10-7 meaning the cubs need 94 wins. If the cubs perform to their season win rate for home/away they go 8-4 at home and 4-3 on the road which is 12-7 and gives them 95 wins.

Even if the cubs lose both of the remaining games vs MIL, it just tightens the race to an uncomfortable level. It doesn't hand MIL anything. If you wanna say from there on out MIL is favored to win I think that's fair but they still would have to play the games and not let up any.

I’ll disagree here. I see it as the Cubs have been screwed by Mother Nature right now and are looking pretty beat up. Joe was even commenting on never working 30 strait before and a rain out is not a day off. They still go in and get mentally prepared. That shit is real. I’ve done it before and that makes you a train wreck.

That is a big issue going on and outside of it Mil is playing their asses off right now.


Only way to fixit is to punch them in the face. Starting today. Fuck the next series. Beat them and push them 3 back.

 

[beckdawg]

I’ll disagree here. I see it as the Cubs have been screwed by Mother Nature right now and are looking pretty beat up. Joe was even commenting on never working 30 strait before and a rain out is not a day off. They still go in and get mentally prepared. That shit is real. I’ve done it before and that makes you a train wreck.

That is a big issue going on and outside of it Mil is playing their asses off right now.


Only way to fixit is to punch them in the face. Starting today. Fuck the next series. Beat them and push them 3 back.

Well here's why I think you're wrong. The assumption everyone wants to make now is that MIL can't possibly lose enough. But why? For example, let's humor the argument that they win this clearly emotional series vs the cubs and take the lead in the central. Is it that unbelievable that they will have the classic let down series vs PIT? Meanwhile, the cubs would have that make up game that may not even happen because of a hurricane and 3 games vs CIN that they really need to win. IMO it's entirely plausible that even if they get swept this series that MIL takes their eyes off the prize and goes like 1-2 vs PIT while the cubs could easily go 4-0 or 3-1 vs WAS/CIN. If that happens even losing the next two games the cubs are back to a either a half game up or a full game up.

Ultimately that's my point here. MIL has very little margin for error because you want to be the team with more games to play. If they have any kind of slide like a 2-4 stretch or something like that they are probably done because they don't have the extra games to make that up.

 

[CSF77]

Well here's why I think you're wrong. The assumption everyone wants to make now is that MIL can't possibly lose enough. But why? For example, let's humor the argument that they win this clearly emotional series vs the cubs and take the lead in the central. Is it that unbelievable that they will have the classic let down series vs PIT? Meanwhile, the cubs would have that make up game that may not even happen because of a hurricane and 3 games vs CIN that they really need to win. IMO it's entirely plausible that even if they get swept this series that MIL takes their eyes off the prize and goes like 1-2 vs PIT while the cubs could easily go 4-0 or 3-1 vs WAS/CIN. If that happens even losing the next two games the cubs are back to a either a half game up or a full game up.

Ultimately that's my point here. MIL has very little margin for error because you want to be the team with more games to play. If they have any kind of slide like a 2-4 stretch or something like that they are probably done because they don't have the extra games to make that up.

Cubs are 4-5 in Sept.

They have not had a day off sense Aug 20.

The next off day they have to fly to Was then fly back toChicago. So 2 flights back to back.

And the whole time they have to play to win every game because Mil is on their ass.

Or if they win both they can goto Azl with a 3 game lead with out the feeling of no margin of error and they can give guys a day off and utilize the 40 man to get the Wash game in on a mulligan game vs giving your starters x2 jet lag going into a Cush Sox series that becomes more do or die than necessary.

The thing is punching them in the face opens up opertunity to rest your guys vs killing them.

 

[CSF77]

And seriously crossing our fingers that the east coast gets steamrolled by a Hurricane.... come on now man

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs are 4-5 in Sept.

They have not had a day off sense Aug 20.

The next off day they have to fly to Was then fly back toChicago. So 2 flights back to back.

And the whole time they have to play to win every game because Mil is on their ass.

Or if they win both they can goto Azl with a 3 game lead with out the feeling of no margin of error and they can give guys a day off and utilize the 40 man to get the Wash game in on a mulligan game vs giving your starters x2 jet lag going into a Cush Sox series that becomes more do or die than necessary.

The thing is punching them in the face opens up opertunity to rest your guys vs killing them.

I mean sure I'm not discounting what you're saying about them playing so many days without a day off. Obviously that sucks. But I will point out it's no guarantee that WAS game even happens. The hurricane very well might call it off. And obviously you want to win the two remaining games vs MIL. All I'm saying is even if the worst case happens it's not like the season just ends. Even if they lose these two games they wouldn't have more losses than MIL. Both would have 62. What it would mean is that there then would be very little room for error because you can't lose even a single game more than MIL. But I mean even if the brewers go like 11-6(.647) the cubs could still go 11-8(.579) and tie the brewers. That's why you want to have more games to play.

As for ARI, they have Hendricks, Monty and Hamels lined up for that series. Not sure you could reasonably ask for better save for maybe swapping out Monty. But given how the ball flies in arizona having a ground ball specialist like Monty isn't the worst thing in the world.

 

[CSF77]

I mean sure I'm not discounting what you're saying about them playing so many days without a day off. Obviously that sucks. But I will point out it's no guarantee that WAS game even happens. The hurricane very well might call it off. And obviously you want to win the two remaining games vs MIL. All I'm saying is even if the worst case happens it's not like the season just ends. Even if they lose these two games they wouldn't have more losses than MIL. Both would have 62. What it would mean is that there then would be very little room for error because you can't lose even a single game more than MIL. But I mean even if the brewers go like 11-6(.647) the cubs could still go 11-8(.579) and tie the brewers. That's why you want to have more games to play.

As for ARI, they have Hendricks, Monty and Hamels lined up for that series. Not sure you could reasonably ask for better save for maybe swapping out Monty. But given how the ball flies in arizona having a ground ball specialist like Monty isn't the worst thing in the world.

Any news on Lester?

 

[beckdawg]

And seriously crossing our fingers that the east coast gets steamrolled by a Hurricane.... come on now man

? Who's hoping for that? I said it was possible the game gets called off. It's not an unreasonable thought given there's a hurricane supposed to be arriving there on thursday. And it's not like the cubs have missed any bad weather the rest of the season so why would they now?

 

[beckdawg]

Any news on Lester?

He said he felt fine today. Expect to make his next start.

 

[CSF77]

? Who's hoping for that? I said it was possible the game gets called off. It's not an unreasonable thought given there's a hurricane supposed to be arriving there on thursday. And it's not like the cubs have missed any bad weather the rest of the season so why would they now?

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/c...-game-nationals?amp&__twitter_impression=true

 

[PickSix]

Some manufactured small ball. Whoohoo.

 

[Parade_Rain]

That AB by Vic was outstanding! Of course the result was aided by a poor managerial decision to pull the infield in. Folks, the infield in rarely works and using it before the 7th inning is pure folly. Maddon did the same thing yesterday and would have had an out, if Russell had been playing normal depth or perhaps even double play depth.

 

[Parade_Rain]

What a snag by Cain.

 

[TL1961]

What a snag by Cain.

Dude can.go get it, that’s for sure.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Q has lost control. Short leash, pull him.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Wow. From 2on, 3-0 count to out of a jam. Nice job.

 

[TL1961]

Nice work getting out of that, Q!

 

[Parade_Rain]

Cain with another outstanding catch.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Fuck gotta get some more runs and chase their starter out