Brewers at Cubs IST

[TL1961]

Funny thing is, on one hand we have succumbed to “Earl Weaver Ball”, yet many of our guys have experienced a huge dropoff in power.

 

[Diehardfan]

Awful inning from the cubs hitters.

Which one? Lately, there's been a lot to choose from.

 

[Diehardfan]

Funny thing is, on one hand we have succumbed to “Earl Weaver Ball”, yet many of our guys have experienced a huge dropoff in power.

I was thinking about that earlier....I mean you got a nice power boost from Javy and Schwarber will get his 30 but that's about it.

 

[jooo83]

I think we need a bit longer to judge but initially I like some of what I'm seeing. I'm a firm believer in outcome based baseball. That's a fancy way of saying I believe in roughly 4 things as it pertains to hitting. Those are K rate, BB rate, ISO and BABIP. For most players if you know those factors you can tell how good a hitter is. I will mention that Baez doesn't fit neatly in those. His numbers don't quite match what you would expect as far as outcomes but he's more an exception than the rule.

As for those 4 categories, BABIP is sorta static and isn't really something you can improve but what it does do is account for faster players and to an extent players who smoke the ball as it's harder to field those balls. That being said, coaching really shouldn't have an impact on BABIP. And if we look at 2017 vs 2018 it's largely the case at .305 in 2017 and .322 in 2018 most of which I think has to do with Baez.

As for the other 3, last year they were 10.3%/21.1% and.190 and in 2018 they are 9.6%/20.6% and .165 as a team. So, the initial takeaway here is power is down a fair amount based on that iso with K's down and walks slightly down. My read on that is that they are changing the way the team approaches at bats. The pre-2018 teams were largely 3 true outcome hitters who would either walk, homer or strike out. I'm not a fan of that style of play. There are pluses and minuses to it. The pro side is it can be a great way to score runs. It's largely the style of play that fueled the steroid era. The down side is it's really not a consistent way to score and you can end up where the cubs did so much last year where you'd get guys on and no one could hit the single to get them home.

This year's team is apparently very focused on putting the ball into play more. They've shaved about 0.7% off their walk rate and a similar amount off their K rate. I would also point out that the cubs non-pitchers have 1099 K's in 5340 PAs which is where that 20.6% k rate comes from. However, Happ has 154 in 421. You remove him from the equation and that comes down to 945 in 4919 which is a 19.2% K rate. League average for non-pitchers is 20.6%. So with the exception of Happ who clearly has strugged this year, you've seen a lot of progress made in reducing the k rates of cubs hitters. Baez has gone from 28.1% to 25.3%. Schwarber has gone from 28.9% to 27.2%. Russell has gone from 24% to 21%....etc.

That's the good side of things. You'd probably need someone more in tune with swing mechanics to talk about this point but what appears to have happened from a statistical stand point is selling power for that K rate improvement which is why the ISO has fallen. Obviously more power is better but I'm a believer in guys finding power when they make good contact. Take Jose Altuve. That guy shouldn't be a 25 HR hitter at 5' 6" / 165 but because he makes great contact enough balls leave the yard. I think the cubs are still in the process of changing that approach so I don't necessarily think they are there yet. But I think the end goal will help them.

And just speaking as a fan, I hate the modern style of baseball. Give me 80's baseball where guys put the ball in play and ran all over the bases. That's fun to watch. Ultimately, I feel like the cubs are trying to get to where the Royals were a few seasons ago in terms of style. If you look at the way they have drafted it's been good contact, good walk rate guys with speed. Essentially, I think they are trying to find guys that are what Heyward was in his best years or what Zobrist currently does.

What will be interesting is to see what happens with guys like Schwarber and happ who seem to fit more the old style rather than where they are going though as I've said before, I don't believe Schwarber's prime is a guy who strikes out over 25%. He was a 20% type in the minors. I think he was just too good to keep in the minors because no one challenged him and he has enough flaws still in his swing that he is sort of exposed in the majors. But the only way to get better is to be up and play.

Excellent analysis. You bring up some very good points but the drop in power is a big concern. I wonder if he returns next year.

 

[jooo83]

Which one? Lately, there's been a lot to choose from.

Touche'

 

[Diehardfan]

Gotta hand it to Strop, he might be a better closer than setup guy...who woulda thunk?

 

[TL1961]

Say what you will, but Pedro Strop is gettin’ ‘er done!

 

[jooo83]

https://twitter.com/NBCSChicago/status/1039481782662574085/video/1

 

[TL1961]

I was thinking about that earlier....I mean you got a nice power boost from Javy and Schwarber will get his 30 but that's about it.

Bryant at 11 due to injury. Russell down due to injury as well? Contreras at 9?

If I told you on 9/11 Bryant and Contreras had 20 between them would you think we had best record in NL?

 

[PickSix]

Hey beckdag, do have voice recognition software?
Not complaining, but damn all your posts are long.
You certainly don’t have ADD like the rest of us.

 

[Diehardfan]

Bryant at 11 due to injury. Russell down due to injury as well? Contreras at 9?

If I told you on 9/11 Bryant and Contreras had 20 between them would you think we had best record in NL?

I would say they would have to have 3 or 4 guys on plus side of .300, the pitching had to be great, Maddon was pushing all the right buttons....or....they were doing it with mirrors.

 

[TL1961]

Awful inning from the cubs hitters.

Up 3-0 bottom of 8th and it was necessary to bash the hitters?

Another chibears alt?

 

[bamainatlanta]

We won with our 1-4 hitters going 0-15

 

[Parade_Rain]

Gotta hand it to Strop, he might be a better closer than setup guy...who woulda thunk?

I thunk it.

 

[Diehardfan]

Hey beckdag, do have voice recognition software?
Not complaining, but damn all your posts are long.
You certainly don’t have ADD like the rest of us.

Hahaha....we've been looking for the Cliff Notes version of his posts for years.

 

[Diehardfan]

I thunk it.

You think Alt Kowabunga thunk it?

And BTW, where is his sorry Alt Ass tonight? Oh, yeah Cubs won.

 

[TL1961]

I would say they would have to have 3 or 4 guys on plus side of .300, the pitching had to be great, Maddon was pushing all the right buttons....or....they were doing it with mirrors.

There is a thread here about Maddon’s job security.

Hendricks’ and Q’s ERA are up a point. Chatwood shat the bed totally. Darvish didn’t make a decent (or healthy) start all season. Bryant hasn’t been nearly himself since a May beanball. Russell has been playing hurt. Morrow was as good a closer as any in the first half, but hasn’t pitched in second half. Contreras lost his bat in spring training.

And many question Maddon.

 

[Parade_Rain]

You think Alt Kowabunga thunk it?

And BTW, where is his sorry Alt Ass tonight? Oh, yeah Cubs won.

Kapooncha55 is with his buddies on a different forum absolutely stunned the Cubs shut out the Brewers for the 6th time this season.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Bryant at 11 due to injury. Russell down due to injury as well? Contreras at 9?

If I told you on 9/11 Bryant and Contreras had 20 between them would you think we had best record in NL?

I would say they would have to have 3 or 4 guys on plus side of .300, the pitching had to be great, Maddon was pushing all the right buttons....or....they were doing it with mirrors.

Here's the thing...Cubs currently 1st in NL batting average (.262) and 1st in NL in runs scored. 9th in HR.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Kapooncha55 is with his buddies on a different forum absolutely stunned the Cubs shut out the Brewers for the 6th time this season.

And knowing that information, maybe I was too harsh on Counsell bringing the IF in earlier in the game.