Castro

[DewsSox79]

he is still quite raw. His ceiling is still very high, but no one knows....no one. He has age on his side and MLB experience being so young. He can go either way. He could flop, He could be the best ss in the game or just another MLB player. Lots of time to decide with him being young.

As far as Castro being better at defense than ramirez that was USC. Using UZR or UZR/150 has to be out of all the metrics the most unreliable. I talked to Dan Hayes from CSN about it on Twitter and he believes as do I and a lot of fans that MLB Scouts and the front offices are using proprietary metrics, and the stuff that we see is purely horrible. What makes USCs debate even worse is he said that ramirez couldnt play 2b for the cubs because of his 2008 UZR. hey brainiac, its 2012 and he plays SS and plays a better d than castro. Also the same guy who says de az is just a guy and is comprable to Jordan Danks.

Let's go player by player on the Sox's "prospects"

Gordon Beckham: Beckham has been a massive disappointment in the majors. He was supposed to be a disciplined hitter who could hit for a high average and hit for power. Carrer ISO of .134, O-Swing% of 33.5% this season after being 37% last season which is bad.

Alexei Ramirez: Already have Castro. He could move to 2nd but he was horrible defensively when he played 2nd in 2008. -5 DRS, -7 UZR, -9.3 UZR/150.

Viciedo: A power hitting OF who will always be below average defensively and doesn't walk at all and has little plate discipline. 41.2 O-Swing% and a 13.2 F-Strike% is bad.

Morel: Below average offensively,couldn't take a walk if his life depended on it, little power, but is a good defender.

De Aza: Cubs have a lot of CF prospects in the minors. No need and I doubt they'd want him either. Also like it has been stated he's 28. Not a prospect

Jones: Reliever w/ spotty control but he can throw hard and has a great curveball. Okay he's a good prospect not a great one.

Septimo: Lefty specialist

Jordan Danks: See De Aza. Danks also strikes out a lot is probably no more than a 4th outfielder.

Addison Reed: Closers are replaceable. But he's a solid reliever.

Sale: Great young pitcher.

Quintana: Back of the rotation pitcher who relies on good command to pitch effectively w/ his average stuff.

Flowers: Strikeout machine and a bad defensive catcher.

 

[Jntg4]

I think Castro decided to dig a hole so that he actually has to try before he finishes the season with a .357 average and 40 Hr

 

[Mr. Cub]

I think Castro decided to dig a hole so that he actually has to try before he finishes the season with a .357 average and 40 Hr

I want some of whatever you are smoking.

 

[The Bandit]

He'll be fine, probably a top 10 SS for his career as well.

 

[dabynsky]

he is still quite raw. His ceiling is still very high, but no one knows....no one. He has age on his side and MLB experience being so young. He can go either way. He could flop, He could be the best ss in the game or just another MLB player. Lots of time to decide with him being young.

I agree that we don't know what his ceiling is because he might continue this slow growth of power that we've seen each year until his physical peak. This could be it in terms of power and the walks never develop. I am confused as to what you think a flop might be. The player we see is a guy that is capable of playing SS and hit at least 700 OPS. That player can play in the bigs for a long time. So I am guessing what you mean by a flop is basically what we are seeing this year. Or do you think he is suddenly not going to be able to hit at all?

I'm going to skip the debate about defense because until fieldf/x data is available to the public it is pointless. What is not debatable is that Castro has the physical tools to play SS at the big league level, and he has been flashing those tools on a regular basis since the first week of May this season.

 

[tbo41fan]

I voted .270 -.279

 

[2SeamHeat]

Exactly. All fielding stats are terrible and either screw one guy who is good or make a bad fielder look good.

Using the eye test isn't great because opinion has a lot to do with it and maybe that's why I think Ramirez is better, but I've seen both play and that's just what I believe. I'm willing to admit that Castro has been a TON better though. Last year was just bad.

I've begun looking at basic ratios. Chances per inning, put outs per inning, and assists per inning. Castro ranks amongst the elite in all of those categories (#1 in put outs and put outs/Inning, #3 in assists, #4 in assists/Inning in the MLB -minimum 700 innings-). What you have to do at that point is look into the team's opponents' trajectory rates to get an idea of whether or not Castro has been the benefactor of having more opportunities due to the team's pitching staff serving up more grounders than average. The Cubs rank 25th in GB% at 43.6%. So, theoretically, the Castro has to cover more ground than most other SS in order to get to the plays he does... as he has had less opportunities to make plays than most other SS this year.

 

[Jntg4]

I've begun looking at basic ratios. Chances per inning, put outs per inning, and assists per inning. Castro ranks amongst the elite in all of those categories (#1 in put outs and put outs/Inning, #3 in assists, #4 in assists/Inning in the MLB -minimum 700 innings-). What you have to do at that point is look into the team's opponents' trajectory rates to get an idea of whether or not Castro has been the benefactor of having more opportunities due to the team's pitching staff serving up more grounders than average. The Cubs rank 25th in GB% at 43.6%. So, theoretically, the Castro has to cover more ground than most other SS in order to get to the plays he does... as he has had less opportunities to make plays than most other SS this year.

Nice research

 

[DewsSox79]

I agree that we don't know what his ceiling is because he might continue this slow growth of power that we've seen each year until his physical peak. This could be it in terms of power and the walks never develop. I am confused as to what you think a flop might be. The player we see is a guy that is capable of playing SS and hit at least 700 OPS. That player can play in the bigs for a long time. So I am guessing what you mean by a flop is basically what we are seeing this year. Or do you think he is suddenly not going to be able to hit at all?

I'm going to skip the debate about defense because until fieldf/x data is available to the public it is pointless. What is not debatable is that Castro has the physical tools to play SS at the big league level, and he has been flashing those tools on a regular basis since the first week of May this season.

yes if he stays the same that is a flop. if he is worse which i doubt unless severe injury than the word would be..... :dunno:

I've begun looking at basic ratios. Chances per inning, put outs per inning, and assists per inning. Castro ranks amongst the elite in all of those categories (#1 in put outs and put outs/Inning, #3 in assists, #4 in assists/Inning in the MLB -minimum 700 innings-). What you have to do at that point is look into the team's opponents' trajectory rates to get an idea of whether or not Castro has been the benefactor of having more opportunities due to the team's pitching staff serving up more grounders than average. The Cubs rank 25th in GB% at 43.6%. So, theoretically, the Castro has to cover more ground than most other SS in order to get to the plays he does... as he has had less opportunities to make plays than most other SS this year.

I really hope this isnt your arguement that castros Defense is better than Ramirez.

 

[Uman85]

He'll be fine, probably a top 10 SS for his career as well.

Top 10 of all-time?

 

[DewsSox79]

Top 10 of all-time?

i hope he didnt mean it that way

 

[Jntg4]

i hope he didnt mean it that way

Well just being just a top 10 in the league during his prime kinda seems like lowballing, top 5 is probably closer... but idk what he meant by that, I think all-time is way high-balling, just top 10 as peak is low-balling.

 

[DewsSox79]

Well just being just a top 10 in the league during his prime kinda seems like lowballing, top 5 is probably closer... but idk what he meant by that, I think all-time is way high-balling, just top 10 as peak is low-balling.

ok dude.


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[2SeamHeat]

I really hope this isnt your arguement that castros Defense is better than Ramirez.

I never really entered that debate. Right now, due to Castro's errors alone, I'd have to grant Ramirez the edge. He may not get to nearly as many plays as Castro does (.566 chances per Inning for Castro, .479 for Ramirez... Cubs opposing GB rate of 43.6%, WhiteSox 42.8% -This suggests that Castro has superior range, as that .8% difference also comes with the WhiteSox having thrown 34.1 more innings than the Cubs... and have produced about the same number of GBs as the Cubs), but he doesn't make the same sort of mistakes that Castro has this season. Then again, Castro isn't making so many of those mistakes anymore.

However, Castro's play over the past two months shows he's capable of being near the level of Ramirez right now... and he's 8.5 years younger than Ramirez. Two year's time, I'd be highly surprised if Castro isn't considered the better defender amongst the current two Chicago starting SS.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Well just being just a top 10 in the league during his prime kinda seems like lowballing, top 5 is probably closer... but idk what he meant by that, I think all-time is way high-balling, just top 10 as peak is low-balling.

Top 10 all time might be a bit silly. He'd have to perform in the class of guys like A-Rod, Jeter, Ripken, Banks, Tejada, Yount, Trammell, Larkin, Normar, and Tony Fernandez just to get into the top of the past 50-60 years.

Top 10 any given year... he's already in that class easily.

 

[DewsSox79]

I never really entered that debate. Right now, due to Castro's errors alone, I'd have to grant Ramirez the edge. He may not get to nearly as many plays as Castro does (.566 chances per Inning for Castro, .479 for Ramirez... Cubs opposing GB rate of 43.6%, WhiteSox 42.8% -This suggests that Castro has superior range, as that .8% difference also comes with the WhiteSox having thrown 34.1 more innings than the Cubs... and have produced about the same number of GBs as the Cubs), but he doesn't make the same sort of mistakes that Castro has this season. Then again, Castro isn't making so many of those mistakes anymore.

However, Castro's play over the past two months shows he's capable of being near the level of Ramirez right now... and he's 8.5 years younger than Ramirez. Two year's time, I'd be highly surprised if Castro isn't considered the better defender amongst the current two Chicago starting SS.

thats still pretty gray as ****. i dont care about the future or projections i care about the now


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[2SeamHeat]

thats still pretty gray as ****. i dont care about the future or projections i care about the now

Well yeah, it is kind of gray. However, it's better than throwing out metrics that now change formulas every year... and vary from one place to another. The fact is, Castro makes more plays than Ramirez does right now... and with about the same amount of opportunity to do so. What this doesn't show is field fx and the like... so we don't know if balls are getting hit harder against the Sox than the Cubs... or if more balls get hit to the right side rather than the left side of the IF for the Sox than happens against the Cubs (which is entirely unlikely). We don't know if more balls are getting hit right at Castro, rather than to Ramirez. We don't know statistically the effects of positioning. But in the end, Castro makes more plays. Ramirez makes fewer mistakes.

I think that even with fielding fx and stronger, more accurate metrics in place... it would still be quite gray. I believe Ramirez, right now, is slightly better in the field than Castro, but it's actually quite close. I did kind of say that in the post you replied to. And I know you don't care about the future. Why would you? When Castro is 28, in his prime, and amongst the elite SS in the game both with the bat and the glove... Ramirez will be on the verge of retirement, and probably not even with the White Sox.

 

[dabynsky]

The Cubs do shift a lot more than the White Sox do.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

Comparing players defensively is pointless. Different stats could be used from either person and the eye test is always different between two people. People turn facts into their own opinions.

Castro is a good player who has gotten a lot better defensively and is still a raw talent. He's going to get a lot better and probably be one of the best if not the best SS in the league any given year. Who really cares if he's better than Ramirez? The White Sox have a better record. Who gives a ****?

 

[dabynsky]

Comparing players defensively is pointless. Different stats could be used from either person and the eye test is always different between two people. People turn facts into their own opinions.

Castro is a good player who has gotten a lot better defensively and is still a raw talent. He's going to get a lot better and probably be one of the best if not the best SS in the league any given year. Who really cares if he's better than Ramirez? The White Sox have a better record. Who gives a ****?

Well said TCF. Trying to debate who is better on defense is just going to turn into a bunch of pointless chest pounding at this point. I am glad we have Starlin Castro, and I think the possibility of him moving into an elite category of players is well within the realm of possible.