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Chad Ford wrote an ESPN piece on 2010 free agency, and here were the estimates he came up with for how much tema's have to spend in 2010 free agency.
1. New Jersey: $25-27 million
2. New York: $24 million
3. Miami: $20-22 million (includes Super Mario Chalmers, Beasley, and Wade staying)
4. Minnesota; $16-18 million
------Cut off of teams able to offer 7 year vet a max contract--------
5. Oklahoma City: $14-15 million
6. Chicago: $13-15 million (No Tyrus)
7. Houston: $12-14 million (No T-Mac)
8. LA Clippers: $8-9 million
9. Sacramento Kings: $9-10 million
So only four teams would be able to offer a true max contract for a 7 year vet under Ford's projected cap of $53.6 million.
What do we see because of this? Dwyane Wade is staying in Miami. He can make by far the most money in Miami, and they seem to have one of the best futures out of the 9 teams that have cap space this summer.
Where does that leave Lebron James and Chris Bosh? I think Lebron James either re-signs in Cleveland, or goes to Miami and joins D-Wade. If Lebron doesn't go to Miami, which I think is what will happen, Chris Bosh goes to Miami.
So now we take Miami out of the free agent equation.
We're left with New Jersey, New York, Minnesota as teams that can offer the max, and then Chicago and OKC as near-max teams.
The top remianing free agents would be Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce (if he opts out), Ray Allen, Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Redd (if he opts out), Richard Jefferson (if he opts out), and Carlos Boozer.
I think we can narrow this list down even more. Paul Pierce is probably a lifelong Celtic and Ray Allen is probably staying in Boston as well. Dirk Nowitzki is probably a lifelong Maverick.
So I think the list comes out to something like:
1. Amare Stoudemire
2. Joe Johnson
3. Carlos Boozer
4. Michael Redd
5. Richard Jefferson
as the free agents for the remaining eight teams to pursue (New Jersey, New York, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Chicago, Houston, LA Clippers, and Sacramento).
So where does this leave the Bulls? Are they willing to commit maximum money to any of those guys? If they aren't, they will probably lose out on those guys. I only see one max player on that list, and that's Amare Stoudemire, and by all reports, the Bulls don't seem too keen on giving Amare a big extension.
New Jersey/New York have based their rebuilding plans around 2010, so you know they're going to spend their money. Minnesota is probably going to spend their money too, to address the shooting guard position.
So what I think we can happen is that New York, New Jersey, OKC, and Chicago all put their bid in for Amare Stoudemire. I think Amare goes to where he can get the most money. If Salmons doesn't opt out, we will easily be beaten out in this regard.
So say New York signs Amare Stoudemire.
That leaves you with a free agent outlook of:
1. Joe Johnson
2. Carlos Boozer
3. Michael Redd
4. Richard Jefferson
With New Jersey, Minnesota, OKC, Chicago, and Houston as the guys who can offer really big contracts. Overpaying is the name of the game in free agency. So I think we'll see New Jersey and Minnesota and maybe Houston offering Joe Johnson the big money and OKC and maybe New Jersey/Houston (depending on Johnson outcome) offering Carlos Boozer a really big contract.
So 2010 free agency basically comes down to the question of this for the Bulls:
Do the Bulls want to commit near-max money to a 29 year old (34 at the end of the contract) shooting guard who averaged 21.4 PPG on 53.4 TS% who has less DWS than the previous "horrible defender" shooting guard, despite playing in 225 games? or an oft-injured power forward who just had a bad 16.2 PPG on 52.3 TS% season who is the same age as that shooting guard, who may never return to his allstar form because he's suffered too many injuries.
I don't mind taking a risk on a guy like Carlos Boozer when we're sending out expiring contracts for him. I do have a problem with locking a guy like Boozer up longterm for big money, while sacrificing various assets in the process (Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, the usability of our expiring contracts in a trade for longterm talent) to get said player.
We could have had Ben Gordon back at $9 million a year. Maybe around $11.5 million a year if we chose to re-sign him this year.
So what would you rather have, Ben Gordon at $69 million/6 years ($57.5 million/5 years converted to 5 year scale), or Joe Johnson/Carlos Boozer at $15.66 million a year ($78.3 million/5 years).
I know which one I would rather have. Ben Gordon at that price (granted I'd take Gordon at $15.66 million over those guys too) over those guys. Gordon's not only a lot cheaper option, but we have a lot more flexibility toward building a championship team (keeping Tyrus Thomas, using MLE's, and leveraging expiring contracts in trade) than we do going the free agency and signing Johnson/Boozer (or worse!) route.
I think in order for the 2010 plan to be a success, the Bulls need to sign either Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Amare Stoudemire. (To a lesser extent Dirk Nowitzki and Yao Ming, which I find unlikely, because I don't see Dirk leaving the Mavs, and Yao Ming is probably not opting out after sitting out the year with injury...not to mention that Yao may be a bad player when he comes back, which would not make the 2010 free agency a success by signing him).
If we don't get one of those 4 (or 6 including Dirk, and a Yao who makes a full recovery), then we essentially will have a player who is equal to Gordon at best...only on a lot bigger contract, while taking away a lot of flexibility in team building.
Unfortunately for the Bulls, everything rides on Salmons. I think Salmons will have a declined year, and choose not to opt out, and hope for a better economy in 2011 free agency. If Salmons opts out, the Bulls become playes for Wade/Lebron/Bosh/Amare. If Salmons opts in, then the writing is already on the wall, and the Bulls will not get one of those four guys, and 2010 free agency will be a bust for the Bulls.
1. New Jersey: $25-27 million
2. New York: $24 million
3. Miami: $20-22 million (includes Super Mario Chalmers, Beasley, and Wade staying)
4. Minnesota; $16-18 million
------Cut off of teams able to offer 7 year vet a max contract--------
5. Oklahoma City: $14-15 million
6. Chicago: $13-15 million (No Tyrus)
7. Houston: $12-14 million (No T-Mac)
8. LA Clippers: $8-9 million
9. Sacramento Kings: $9-10 million
So only four teams would be able to offer a true max contract for a 7 year vet under Ford's projected cap of $53.6 million.
What do we see because of this? Dwyane Wade is staying in Miami. He can make by far the most money in Miami, and they seem to have one of the best futures out of the 9 teams that have cap space this summer.
Where does that leave Lebron James and Chris Bosh? I think Lebron James either re-signs in Cleveland, or goes to Miami and joins D-Wade. If Lebron doesn't go to Miami, which I think is what will happen, Chris Bosh goes to Miami.
So now we take Miami out of the free agent equation.
We're left with New Jersey, New York, Minnesota as teams that can offer the max, and then Chicago and OKC as near-max teams.
The top remianing free agents would be Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce (if he opts out), Ray Allen, Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Redd (if he opts out), Richard Jefferson (if he opts out), and Carlos Boozer.
I think we can narrow this list down even more. Paul Pierce is probably a lifelong Celtic and Ray Allen is probably staying in Boston as well. Dirk Nowitzki is probably a lifelong Maverick.
So I think the list comes out to something like:
1. Amare Stoudemire
2. Joe Johnson
3. Carlos Boozer
4. Michael Redd
5. Richard Jefferson
as the free agents for the remaining eight teams to pursue (New Jersey, New York, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Chicago, Houston, LA Clippers, and Sacramento).
So where does this leave the Bulls? Are they willing to commit maximum money to any of those guys? If they aren't, they will probably lose out on those guys. I only see one max player on that list, and that's Amare Stoudemire, and by all reports, the Bulls don't seem too keen on giving Amare a big extension.
New Jersey/New York have based their rebuilding plans around 2010, so you know they're going to spend their money. Minnesota is probably going to spend their money too, to address the shooting guard position.
So what I think we can happen is that New York, New Jersey, OKC, and Chicago all put their bid in for Amare Stoudemire. I think Amare goes to where he can get the most money. If Salmons doesn't opt out, we will easily be beaten out in this regard.
So say New York signs Amare Stoudemire.
That leaves you with a free agent outlook of:
1. Joe Johnson
2. Carlos Boozer
3. Michael Redd
4. Richard Jefferson
With New Jersey, Minnesota, OKC, Chicago, and Houston as the guys who can offer really big contracts. Overpaying is the name of the game in free agency. So I think we'll see New Jersey and Minnesota and maybe Houston offering Joe Johnson the big money and OKC and maybe New Jersey/Houston (depending on Johnson outcome) offering Carlos Boozer a really big contract.
So 2010 free agency basically comes down to the question of this for the Bulls:
Do the Bulls want to commit near-max money to a 29 year old (34 at the end of the contract) shooting guard who averaged 21.4 PPG on 53.4 TS% who has less DWS than the previous "horrible defender" shooting guard, despite playing in 225 games? or an oft-injured power forward who just had a bad 16.2 PPG on 52.3 TS% season who is the same age as that shooting guard, who may never return to his allstar form because he's suffered too many injuries.
I don't mind taking a risk on a guy like Carlos Boozer when we're sending out expiring contracts for him. I do have a problem with locking a guy like Boozer up longterm for big money, while sacrificing various assets in the process (Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, the usability of our expiring contracts in a trade for longterm talent) to get said player.
We could have had Ben Gordon back at $9 million a year. Maybe around $11.5 million a year if we chose to re-sign him this year.
So what would you rather have, Ben Gordon at $69 million/6 years ($57.5 million/5 years converted to 5 year scale), or Joe Johnson/Carlos Boozer at $15.66 million a year ($78.3 million/5 years).
I know which one I would rather have. Ben Gordon at that price (granted I'd take Gordon at $15.66 million over those guys too) over those guys. Gordon's not only a lot cheaper option, but we have a lot more flexibility toward building a championship team (keeping Tyrus Thomas, using MLE's, and leveraging expiring contracts in trade) than we do going the free agency and signing Johnson/Boozer (or worse!) route.
I think in order for the 2010 plan to be a success, the Bulls need to sign either Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Amare Stoudemire. (To a lesser extent Dirk Nowitzki and Yao Ming, which I find unlikely, because I don't see Dirk leaving the Mavs, and Yao Ming is probably not opting out after sitting out the year with injury...not to mention that Yao may be a bad player when he comes back, which would not make the 2010 free agency a success by signing him).
If we don't get one of those 4 (or 6 including Dirk, and a Yao who makes a full recovery), then we essentially will have a player who is equal to Gordon at best...only on a lot bigger contract, while taking away a lot of flexibility in team building.
Unfortunately for the Bulls, everything rides on Salmons. I think Salmons will have a declined year, and choose not to opt out, and hope for a better economy in 2011 free agency. If Salmons opts out, the Bulls become playes for Wade/Lebron/Bosh/Amare. If Salmons opts in, then the writing is already on the wall, and the Bulls will not get one of those four guys, and 2010 free agency will be a bust for the Bulls.
