Chicago Cubs Starting Lineup Projections(aka Bill James thinks they will suck)

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dabynsky

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Maybe the Cubs as a whole organization from A-MLB have improved with the acquisition of prospects, and front office I'd agree.

I'm assuming he's talking about the MLB only.

I disagree if CO is thinking the MLB has improved this season.

C-Worse
1B-Worse, though Rizzo is promisinng
2B-~the same
3B-Worse
LF-Worse
CF-~the same maybe better if Jackson is all that and a bag of Fareway baked potato chips
RF-~ the same
P-Better Mahlom, Wood, and Volstad replace Zambrano and round out the rotation nicely.

Out of curiousity how did we get worse at catcher when the only change is removing the backup Koyie Hill for one of Steve Clevenger, Jason Jaramillo or Wellington Castillo?
 

IvyPickin87

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C: Soto (.252/.345/.450 19HR's 52RBI)
1B: Lahair(.272/.335/.474 13HR's 43RBI) Rizzo(.236/.312/.425 14HR 62RBI)
2B: Barney(.275/.317/.356 2HR 25RBI)
3B: Stewart(.247/.328/.444 10HR 35RBI)
SS:Castro(.312/.354/.441 8HR 66RBI)
LF: Soriano(.252/.308/.469 22HR 63RBI)
RF: DeJesus(.271/NA/NA 8HR 58RBI) BJax(.251/.333/.434 10HR 26RBI)
CF: Byrd(.275/.329/.412 13HR 66RBI)

Usually this time of year this kinda talk gets me jacked for the season.... This lineup here on the other hand makes my asshole pucker. This is weak sauce...Its gonna be a long year. Thank god there is Olympics this summer to help pass the time til football season cause the cubs sure wont.:dunno:
 

nwfisch

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Out of curiousity how did we get worse at catcher when the only change is removing the backup Koyie Hill for one of Steve Clevenger, Jason Jaramillo or Wellington Castillo?
Soto being another year older, losing supporting cast (Ramirez, Pena), defense will be about the same.
 

IvyPickin87

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Out of curiousity how did we get worse at catcher when the only change is removing the backup Koyie Hill for one of Steve Clevenger, Jason Jaramillo or Wellington Castillo?

I think you can say worse, because while Koyie sucked at the plate, he called a good game. We don't know who the backup is to Soto (who WILL like always sit out 50+ games, whether its pot or injury related we will find out later) we don't know how well his fill-in will be so at this point yes i say worse.
 

Capt. Serious

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In what way have the cubs improved?

lineup has NO power to speak of, No speed whatsoever...fucking garbage bench.

Starting rotation sucks balls. Bullpen sucks ass. traded away our best reliever to the reds for a mediocre starter.

Yea, the cubs have improved.......in being worst than the astros

and you expected anything less from CO? :rolling:

:shifty:
 

dabynsky

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Soto being another year older, losing supporting cast (Ramirez, Pena), defense will be about the same.
How does Ramirez and Pena influence Soto's offensive production when he hit behind them the entire year (if you even believe in the concept of protection)? If defense remains the same and the offensive production is improve between the backups isn't it at least a wash?

Catchers do age quickly, and it is certainly possible that at 29 Soto is just going to continue decline. But on the otherhand he has shown the ability to rebound from a poor season at the plate as well. I just don't see how one looking at all the evidence available at this point conclusively say the Cubs are worse behind the dish this season.

I think you can say worse, because while Koyie sucked at the plate, he called a good game. We don't know who the backup is to Soto (who WILL like always sit out 50+ games, whether its pot or injury related we will find out later) we don't know how well his fill-in will be so at this point yes i say worse.

Saying Koyie Hill sucked at the plate is generous, and the odds of one of those three guys being a significant upgrade offensively is pretty high. Koyie Hill's defensive abilities have been greatly overstated, and I am pretty sure that at least one of those three guys will emerge as a better backup which as you point out is significant because no catcher really can handle more than 120-130 games a season.
 

IvyPickin87

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How does Ramirez and Pena influence Soto's offensive production when he hit behind them the entire year (if you even believe in the concept of protection)? If defense remains the same and the offensive production is improve between the backups isn't it at least a wash?

Catchers do age quickly, and it is certainly possible that at 29 Soto is just going to continue decline. But on the otherhand he has shown the ability to rebound from a poor season at the plate as well. I just don't see how one looking at all the evidence available at this point conclusively say the Cubs are worse behind the dish this season.



Saying Koyie Hill sucked at the plate is generous, and the odds of one of those three guys being a significant upgrade offensively is pretty high. Koyie Hill's defensive abilities have been greatly overstated, and I am pretty sure that at least one of those three guys will emerge as a better backup which as you point out is significant because no catcher really can handle more than 120-130 games a season.

I understand no catcher goes over that 130 plateau, I am sayin he will not be an option for 50 or so games, so two of those three are going to have to do the job. That is what worries me.
 
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IvyPickin87

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Our pitching is going to have trouble keeping teams from scoring, and our offense will struggle to give them run support. It's pretty much the perfect recipe for a trainwreck season.

You gotta get a new sig dude i cant stand looking at that fatty anymore, happy he is gone. :cubs:
 

CODE_BLUE56

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LOL@the cubs improving overall when we lost aramis and pena who produce a bulk of the offense especially power wise

if you want to talk in terms of highs and lows for a team...because of the team's experience age, and all the other circumstances we are at a relative low..

meaning this team is going to not be very good next year..70-75 wins

i could be wrong though..we'll see
 

dabynsky

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I understand no catcher goes over that 130 plateau, I am say he will not be an option for 50 or so games, so two of those three are going to have to do the job. That is what worries me.

And I agree with you that makes the backup position significant, I just fail to see how the play of those three options (Jaramillo, Clevenger, and Castillo) would be worse than what we got last year.
 

dabynsky

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LOL@the cubs improving when we lost aramis and pena who produce a bulk of the offense especially power wise

if you want to talk in terms of highs and lows for a team...because of the team's experience age, and all the other circumstances we are at a relative low..

meaning this team is going to not be very good next year..70-75 wins

PECOTA projections came up for the Cubs with them at 74.5 wins I think which seems about right.
 

IvyPickin87

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And I agree with you that makes the backup position significant, I just fail to see how the play of those three options (Jaramillo, Clevenger, and Castillo) would be worse than what we got last year.

I'm sorry man i shouldn't try to rain on the parade things are going to be bleak this year.... Maybe if one steps up the Cubs do actually improve in that category. Gotta stay positive!
 

dabynsky

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I'm sorry man i shouldn't try to rain on the parade things are going to be bleak this year.... Maybe if one steps up the Cubs do actually improve in that category. Gotta stay positive!

Look I agree that the major league roster has the potential to be diastrously bad. I guess I just think backup catcher is one of the few safe spots for an improvement. Not because I think that highly of Jaramillo, Clevenger or Castillo, but more because the guy they are replacing was that bad.
 

CODE_BLUE56

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PECOTA projections came up for the Cubs with them at 74.5 wins I think which seems about right.

i could see that...we had 71 last year....idk if we can conclude that the win differential means the team will be better though

partly because our division has gotten a little weaker
 

IvyPickin87

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il be shocked if Cubs dont lose 95+

I dont know if i would say that, i would say 95 is a good over/under number, there may be a CCS game there sig bets with teams of people who think they will lose more or less then 95. Gotta have fun with what will be a horrible season.
 
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