Cole hamels

[brett05]

There's a Venezuelan kid they love, RH just turned 17. The Twins chased him this past year and didn't get him. I'll have to dig for the name.

Problem with a kid like that is he's now a WAY TOO young guy. By the time he's ready the Cubs are in need of cheaper hitters again.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Problem with a kid like that is he's now a WAY TOO young guy. By the time he's ready the Cubs are in need of cheaper hitters again.

Right but you stock up on guys like that and hopefully they become positive assets before they reach your big club. The Cubs have a couple of 20 year olds in Underwood and Tseng that are both expected to climb at least a level a year. Tseng especially is considered to have TOR stuff. They'll both be in Myrtle Beach this year, maybe Tennessee next and maybe if they don't lose a year to Tommy John or the like you might see them in late 2017 or so. You just hope to replace them year after year. It's a strategy as someone pointed out the Cardinals have used for years. Arms are arms. They don't all become top starters, heck they don't all become starters but you just keep them coming. Front loading the system with hitters has given this team probably a two year jump start on a full rebuild from about as bad as it gets top to bottom. In 2011 when this FO took over this team won 71 games and was the 25th best team in the league. The farm system was 28th. It's likely that the big club will be in the top half of the game and has an off chance of being in the top ten and a playoff team at the end of this year and as we know the farm system is #1. That's remarkable in 4 years. Keep stocking arms, 17 years old or not. It all matters.

 

[SilenceS]

Duane underwood has the most ace potential in our lower levels. He keeps his control and he will start to fly through the ranks. Kids arm is special. Ever heard of a live arm. That's him. Throws 92 but it feels like 95 with movement. Secondary pitches show a ton of life. He made huge strides last year.


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[beckdawg]

How many of those guys will be available before they reach 28-30 ?

If their that good, and young why would their team give them up ? Good young pitching harder to get then hitters

No idea but it's not a case of Hamels now or nothing. If those players aren't available over the next 2-3 years someone will be. By that point, someone similar Hamels(meaning someone similar not actually hamels himself) actually makes sense because they will be farther along.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Duane underwood has the most ace potential in our lower levels. He keeps his control and he will start to fly through the ranks. Kids arm is special. Ever heard of a live arm. That's him. Throws 92 but it feels like 95 with movement. Secondary pitches show a ton of life. He made huge strides last year.


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Yeah, Underwood is the other one. Scouts seem to be split on which is the better of the two. Tseng has better velocity, a stronger body type and more polished pitches for a twenty year old but his detractors don't see where the development comes. Underwood is as you say with some saying that his lack of velo will make his ceiling a #3 on a good staff, while others say Tseng has all the makings of an ace, or a bust. Not being a scout I'm not qualified to call it. I like that there are two of them, on the same trajectory pushing each other along the way. That can't be anything but good.

 

[CSF77]

Duane underwood has the most ace potential in our lower levels. He keeps his control and he will start to fly through the ranks. Kids arm is special. Ever heard of a live arm. That's him. Throws 92 but it feels like 95 with movement. Secondary pitches show a ton of life. He made huge strides last year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

C.J. Edwards
Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55
Texas nabbed Edwards, who was lightly scouted in high school, in the 48th round of the 2011 Draft. He quickly developed into much more than a typical 48th-round pick, and he was a key component to the package the Rangers sent to the Cubs in exchange for Matt Garza in July '13. Edwards has shown electric stuff with his new organization, though shoulder inflammation has limited his innings this year.

Edwards throws his fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, and it can touch 97 mph. He does a good job of keeping his fastball down in the zone, and he only gave up one home run in 116 1/3 innings in 2013. Edwards' best offspeed pitch is his 12-to-6 curveball, and his changeup has improved as a professional.

Edwards is skinny, and some scouts question his long-term durability as a result. If he can prove that won't be a problem, his stuff is good enough to make him a front-line starter.



Pierce Johnson

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
Johnson had an impressive first full professional season, pitching well across two levels in 2013. And perhaps most importantly, he stayed healthy after a checkered injury history as an amateur dinged his stock leading up to the '12 Draft. Johnson hasn't been as fortunate this year, as hamstring and calf issues sidelined him early.

Johnson's fastball sits in the low 90s, and it is most effective when he keeps it down in the zone. He has a good feel for his hard curveball, which is an effective out pitch. Johnson rounds out his three-pitch mix with a solid changeup.

At his best, Johnson pounds the strike zone and shows the ability to command all of his pitches well. He earned praise for his pitchability, and he looked the part of an advanced college pitcher at the outset of his professional career. Johnson profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.



Jen-Ho Tseng
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
Tseng looked like an elite international prospect when he dominated the 18-and-under World Championships in September 2012, but his stuff and delivery regressed significantly by the time he pitched for Taiwan as an 18-year-old in the World Baseball Classic the following spring. Undaunted, Chicago signed Tseng for $1.625 million last July.

The early returns on that investment have the Cubs optimistic that they could have a future No. 3 starter on their hands. Tseng was so impressive in Spring Training this year that Chicago sent him to Class A for his pro debut, and he got off to a terrific start at Kane County.

Tseng's stuff has bounced back to where he's pitching with a consistent 90-95 mph fastball. He also can get swings and misses with his curveball. Tseng has advanced feel for his changeup and for finding the strike zone with all three of his offerings.


Paul Blackburn
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45
The first of four high school pitchers selected by the Cubs in the top five rounds of the 2012 Draft, Blackburn has one of the best combinations of stuff and feel among the system's mound prospects. He projects as a potential No. 3 starter, with command of three average or better pitches.

Blackburn's best pitch is a 90-93 mph fastball, with the sink to generate plenty of groundouts. He spins a nice curveball, too, and he already has an effective changeup. Blackburn is already starting to add strength, and he has the athleticism to repeat his delivery on a regular basis.

Blackburn finished his first full season with two dominant starts in the short-season Northwest League playoffs, which could be a harbinger of a breakout this year. If he can build on that progress, he could advance very quickly for a prep prospect.


Corey Black
Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45
After the Cubs traded Alfonso Soriano to the Yankees for Black last July, New York general manager Brian Cashman went on record as saying that he was opposed to the deal, because he didn't want to give up the live-armed right-hander. A fourth-round pick in 2012, Black touched 100 mph with his fastball during instructional league that fall, and he worked at 91-96 mph as a starter in his first full pro season.

Black has more than enough pitches to remain in the rotation. His hard slider gives him a second swing-and-miss pitch, and his curveball made siginificant strides in 2013. Black's changeup has enough fade to keep hitters off balance.

Though Black has the arsenal to start, some scouts believe he projects more as a reliever in the long run. He's small and slender, and he has some effort to his delivery, leading to questions about his long-term durability and command. If Black moves to the bullpen, he'd likely add more velocity and be a late-inning option.



Carson Sands
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
By taking projected mid-first-round talent Kyle Schwarber with the No. 4 overall selection and college senior Jake Stinnett in the second round in June, the Cubs stockpiled cash to land high-profile high school pitchers in the later rounds. They took Sands, who figured to go before the second round, in the fourth and signed him away from his Florida State commitment for $1.1 million.

Sands shows the ability to throw strikes with all three of his pitches. His best offering is a 90-94 mph fastball with good life, and he also has a solid curveball and a promising changeup. Sands has a nice build with the room to add more strength and velocity.

Sands is a product of North Florida Christian High, which also produced a 2014 third-rounder in Matt Railey (Diamondbacks). Sands' younger brother Cole, a right-hander, is an early-round prospect for the 2015 Draft.


Duane Underwood
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
Underwood had an inconsistent high school senior season in 2012, running his fastball up to 98 mph and flashing a nifty curveball on some days and losing velocity and his feel for spin on others. In need of pitching, the Cubs invested a second-round pick and $1.05 million in him. He was inconsistent in his first two seasons but had his best year as a pro in 2014 after taking his conditioning more seriously.

Underwood usually pitches at 92-95 mph with his fastball, and he could regularly work in the mid 90s once he fully matures physically. His hard curveball shows promise, while his changeup is more of a work in progress.

Chicago knew Underwood would be a long-term project who would need time to develop. His control and command took a nice step forward last season, and if he puts everything together, he could be a mid-rotation starter or a late-inning reliever.



That is the rankings.

 

[beckdawg]

I would also point out to not forget about Dylan Cease. Hard to say much of anything while he's hurt but he was probably a top 30 pick had he been healthy.

 

[CSF77]

CHICAGO -- The Cubs have signed Dylan Cease, a right-handed pitcher from Milton (Ga.) High School and their sixth-round pick in the 2014 First-Year Player Draft, to a $1.5 million signing bonus, the fourth highest all time for a sixth-round pick and well above the slot value of $269,500.

The Cubs signed Cease knowing he will need Tommy John surgery, which he is scheduled to have on July 22. Cease was throwing 97 mph before he was hurt.
It's the 34th-highest bonus this year. According to MLB.com's Jim Callis, the Cubs had a great First-Year Player Draft, getting first-round pick Kyle Schwarber, considered the best college bat available, and using the savings to sign fourth-round pick Carson Sands ($1.1 million), fifth-round selection Justin Steele ($1 million) and Cease ($1.5 million).
The Cubs have signed their first 22 picks, and 25 of their first 27 taken in the Draft.

 

[chibears55]

No idea but it's not a case of Hamels now or nothing. If those players aren't available over the next 2-3 years someone will be. By that point, someone similar Hamels(meaning someone similar not actually hamels himself) actually makes sense because they will be farther along.

Waiting 2-3 yrs to hope and get a TOR like Hamels may cost a whole lot more then , then to just get Cole Hamels now if they can and have him already on the team..

By then these kids in their system should be ready to hopefully replace both Hamels and Lester

 

[beckdawg]

Waiting 2-3 yrs to hope and get a TOR like Hamels may cost a whole lot more then , then to just get Cole Hamels now if they can and have him already on the team..

Based on what? Are you assuming the phillies are going to sell low on him? Because every indication we've heard recently is they don't plan to move him unless it's two top prospects in your system and then some. There's always another guy available. You don't have to take my word for it. Look at the names who've been traded the past 10 years either at the deadline or prior to the start of a season. We're talking about guys like Halladay, Lee, Sabathia, Price, Lester, Shark, Shields, Greinke, Gio Gonzo, and Garza. That's just off the top of my head. Admittedly some of those players like Garza and Shark are more #2 that Hamels but the point remains that premium pitching is often available. That says nothing of the litany of high caliber pitching who can possibly hit FA over the next 2 years.

Regardless, I see no reason that the players who will be available 2-3 years from now will cost anymore in terms of prospects. If you mean money, then sure but that's kind of a constant and additionally, the cubs will have more TV revenue in the future. That's the point I'm trying to make. There's is absolutely no rush to make a decision. If someone is going to give away a player then sure you consider a player like Hamels. For example, if the Phillies just wanted to dump his contract and weren't trying to extract a kings ransom as well then fine make the trade. But presently that doesn't appear where we sit today.

 

[chibears55]

Based on what? Are you assuming the phillies are going to sell low on him? Because every indication we've heard recently is they don't plan to move him unless it's two top prospects in your system and then some. There's always another guy available. You don't have to take my word for it. Look at the names who've been traded the past 10 years either at the deadline or prior to the start of a season. We're talking about guys like Halladay, Lee, Sabathia, Price, Lester, Shark, Shields, Greinke, Gio Gonzo, and Garza. That's just off the top of my head. Admittedly some of those players like Garza and Shark are more #2 that Hamels but the point remains that premium pitching is often available. That says nothing of the litany of high caliber pitching who can possibly hit FA over the next 2 years.

Regardless, I see no reason that the players who will be available 2-3 years from now will cost anymore in terms of prospects. If you mean money, then sure but that's kind of a constant and additionally, the cubs will have more TV revenue in the future. That's the point I'm trying to make. There's is absolutely no rush to make a decision. If someone is going to give away a player then sure you consider a player like Hamels. For example, if the Phillies just wanted to dump his contract and weren't trying to extract a kings ransom as well then fine make the trade. But presently that doesn't appear where we sit today.

I dont think Amaro will sell low but i dont think he going to get as much as he hopes as far as top valued prospects

I was talking more in money but one can argue that in a couple years it may be harder to pry away a 28-31 YO TOR starter via trade unless your willing to give up alot. .

I could be wrong but i think teams are going to try and tie up their young studs through their prime years so it may cost a bit more in trades to pry them away because there may not be many (TOR type ) available via FA

 

[beckdawg]

I could be wrong but i think teams are going to try and tie up their young studs through their prime years

I'd ask what's changed? Not saying it's not a valid viewpoint but I'd question why teams in the past haven't but will now/future. In my opinion, you're always going to have Rays/A's teams who draft well and have an eventual selloff when they don't have enough to compete over several years. So, that's one source. But we've seen this offseason that the Nats signed Scherzer rather than(presumably) locking Strasburg up long term. Maybe that still happens. But clearly the speculation out presently is he's eventually Strasburgs replacement.

Ultimately, I think the situation isn't as simple as a player is talented so you lock him up. There could be someone you think is better and you'd rather spend money on that player than lock your own up. It could be that someone like Strasburg has a tough agent and you doubt you can come to an agreement. It could be as simple as the player doesn't want to play in the city they are in. There's been tons of reasons why teams didn't come together with pitchers of the past 10 years. I don't really see anything that's changed that.

 

[SilenceS]

C.J. Edwards
Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55
Texas nabbed Edwards, who was lightly scouted in high school, in the 48th round of the 2011 Draft. He quickly developed into much more than a typical 48th-round pick, and he was a key component to the package the Rangers sent to the Cubs in exchange for Matt Garza in July '13. Edwards has shown electric stuff with his new organization, though shoulder inflammation has limited his innings this year.

Edwards throws his fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, and it can touch 97 mph. He does a good job of keeping his fastball down in the zone, and he only gave up one home run in 116 1/3 innings in 2013. Edwards' best offspeed pitch is his 12-to-6 curveball, and his changeup has improved as a professional.

Edwards is skinny, and some scouts question his long-term durability as a result. If he can prove that won't be a problem, his stuff is good enough to make him a front-line starter.



Pierce Johnson

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50
Johnson had an impressive first full professional season, pitching well across two levels in 2013. And perhaps most importantly, he stayed healthy after a checkered injury history as an amateur dinged his stock leading up to the '12 Draft. Johnson hasn't been as fortunate this year, as hamstring and calf issues sidelined him early.

Johnson's fastball sits in the low 90s, and it is most effective when he keeps it down in the zone. He has a good feel for his hard curveball, which is an effective out pitch. Johnson rounds out his three-pitch mix with a solid changeup.

At his best, Johnson pounds the strike zone and shows the ability to command all of his pitches well. He earned praise for his pitchability, and he looked the part of an advanced college pitcher at the outset of his professional career. Johnson profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.



Jen-Ho Tseng
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
Tseng looked like an elite international prospect when he dominated the 18-and-under World Championships in September 2012, but his stuff and delivery regressed significantly by the time he pitched for Taiwan as an 18-year-old in the World Baseball Classic the following spring. Undaunted, Chicago signed Tseng for $1.625 million last July.

The early returns on that investment have the Cubs optimistic that they could have a future No. 3 starter on their hands. Tseng was so impressive in Spring Training this year that Chicago sent him to Class A for his pro debut, and he got off to a terrific start at Kane County.

Tseng's stuff has bounced back to where he's pitching with a consistent 90-95 mph fastball. He also can get swings and misses with his curveball. Tseng has advanced feel for his changeup and for finding the strike zone with all three of his offerings.


Paul Blackburn
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45
The first of four high school pitchers selected by the Cubs in the top five rounds of the 2012 Draft, Blackburn has one of the best combinations of stuff and feel among the system's mound prospects. He projects as a potential No. 3 starter, with command of three average or better pitches.

Blackburn's best pitch is a 90-93 mph fastball, with the sink to generate plenty of groundouts. He spins a nice curveball, too, and he already has an effective changeup. Blackburn is already starting to add strength, and he has the athleticism to repeat his delivery on a regular basis.

Blackburn finished his first full season with two dominant starts in the short-season Northwest League playoffs, which could be a harbinger of a breakout this year. If he can build on that progress, he could advance very quickly for a prep prospect.


Corey Black
Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45
After the Cubs traded Alfonso Soriano to the Yankees for Black last July, New York general manager Brian Cashman went on record as saying that he was opposed to the deal, because he didn't want to give up the live-armed right-hander. A fourth-round pick in 2012, Black touched 100 mph with his fastball during instructional league that fall, and he worked at 91-96 mph as a starter in his first full pro season.

Black has more than enough pitches to remain in the rotation. His hard slider gives him a second swing-and-miss pitch, and his curveball made siginificant strides in 2013. Black's changeup has enough fade to keep hitters off balance.

Though Black has the arsenal to start, some scouts believe he projects more as a reliever in the long run. He's small and slender, and he has some effort to his delivery, leading to questions about his long-term durability and command. If Black moves to the bullpen, he'd likely add more velocity and be a late-inning option.



Carson Sands
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
By taking projected mid-first-round talent Kyle Schwarber with the No. 4 overall selection and college senior Jake Stinnett in the second round in June, the Cubs stockpiled cash to land high-profile high school pitchers in the later rounds. They took Sands, who figured to go before the second round, in the fourth and signed him away from his Florida State commitment for $1.1 million.

Sands shows the ability to throw strikes with all three of his pitches. His best offering is a 90-94 mph fastball with good life, and he also has a solid curveball and a promising changeup. Sands has a nice build with the room to add more strength and velocity.

Sands is a product of North Florida Christian High, which also produced a 2014 third-rounder in Matt Railey (Diamondbacks). Sands' younger brother Cole, a right-hander, is an early-round prospect for the 2015 Draft.


Duane Underwood
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
Underwood had an inconsistent high school senior season in 2012, running his fastball up to 98 mph and flashing a nifty curveball on some days and losing velocity and his feel for spin on others. In need of pitching, the Cubs invested a second-round pick and $1.05 million in him. He was inconsistent in his first two seasons but had his best year as a pro in 2014 after taking his conditioning more seriously.

Underwood usually pitches at 92-95 mph with his fastball, and he could regularly work in the mid 90s once he fully matures physically. His hard curveball shows promise, while his changeup is more of a work in progress.

Chicago knew Underwood would be a long-term project who would need time to develop. His control and command took a nice step forward last season, and if he puts everything together, he could be a mid-rotation starter or a late-inning reliever.



That is the rankings.

So, you are saying what I am saying? Underwood and Tseng are low levels. They have the most potential. Like TC said, I have seen mixed reviews. Some believe Underwood projects to TOR. Ive seen people say he will be in the bullpen.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

So, you are saying what I am saying? Underwood and Tseng are low levels. They have the most potential. Like TC said, I have seen mixed reviews. Some believe Underwood projects to TOR. Ive seen people say he will be in the bullpen.

From the list Edwards has the most potential and he should at least sniff the big club this year. The only questions are his frame and durability. No one really questions that he has TOR stuff.

 

[SilenceS]

From the list Edwards has the most potential and he should at least sniff the big club this year. The only questions are his frame and durability. No one really questions that he has TOR stuff.

I know. My original post was about lower level guys. Pierce Johnson, CJ Edwards, and Corey Black are all AA or higher.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Gotcha. Long thread, got off point there for a second.

I think the thing to really focus on is the canard that Theo and Jed haven't focused on pitching needs to be put to rest. They just focused on it differently knowing that the bats they wanted in their line up would be more difficult to get than the arms if they didn't draft and develop those guys themselves, at least initially.

 

[brett05]

Gotcha. Long thread, got off point there for a second.

I think the thing to really focus on is the canard that Theo and Jed haven't focused on pitching needs to be put to rest. They just focused on it differently knowing that the bats they wanted in their line up would be more difficult to get than the arms if they didn't draft and develop those guys themselves, at least initially.

Showing some guys in lower level minors does not refute the premise that Theo and team passed on pitching.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Showing some guys in lower level minors does not refute the premise that Theo and team passed on pitching.

I disagree because that's exactly what they said they were going to do. The argument will be whether it works or not. The jury is out.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Showing some guys in lower level minors does not refute the premise that Theo and team passed on pitching.

I guess when the Dodgers drafted Piazza with the last pick, they passed on catching, too. Your position is illogical.

 

[beckdawg]

Showing some guys in lower level minors does not refute the premise that Theo and team passed on pitching.

Unless you're drafting 1st round pitchers typically any player is going to be in the low levels. Additionally, we're only talking about 3 drafts under theo which is hard to comment on as you're not even seeing the first picks he's made in the majors yet.