Cubs current roster 2018

[CSF77]

LF: Schwarber/Happ/Zo
CF: Almora/Happ/Heyward
RF: Heyward/Zo/Happ/Bryant
3B: Bryant/LaStella/Baez
SS: Russell/Baez
2B: Baez/Zo/Happ/LaStellaRussell
1B: Rizzo/LaStella/Cartiani/Baez/Bryant
C: Contreras/Cartiani/Schwarber

It is more of a depth thing going on. Early year the starters will be building up to get deeper into games. Add to it the cold weather makes it harder to loosen up. So having a 8 man pen pays off more than a extra bat.

I see it as they need 2 2 inning guys coming out of S/T. Montgomery and Butler would be the 2 guys that would have the edge going in to ST. But you also have Mills and Tseng to concider.

Tseng strikes me as a ideal long relief. Can go through the line up 1 time with a diverse arsonel. 2nd guy should be Montgomery if he remains in that role. A 2nd guy would be Mills.

Now I see them grooming Underwood for the rotation this year. His stuff is good enough to start. Alozay in Tenn should end up in Iowa at some point and be the next guy. Following him DeLaRosa.

Those 3 I expect them to continue to develop vs convert to pen arms.

 

[PickSix]

That’s not a very exciting pitching staff for a contender folks.
No legit Ace.
No legit Closer.
And God help us if we ever have to watch Grimm on the mound again.

 

[CSF77]

Morrow had a career year. 1.7 WAR in 43.2 IP. .282 BABIP This is where I believe he is sustainable. It was not far off of league avg. 10.31 SO/9 was over his career avg of 9.19 1.85 was well below his career mark of 3.90. The question for him is sustainability. The BB/9 to me is his major concern. Now in 2016 with the Pads it was at 1.69 in a brief stint so it could also be a new trend with him also.

Over all it was a gamble but the signs kinda show that he may end up doing what Davis did before in his conversion from starter to set up to closer. Seems the Cubs want that vs paying for the aftermath.

Steve Cishek: wOBA: vs R: .192 vs L .287 (better vs right)
Justion Wilson: wOBA: vs R: .270 vs L: .312 (better vs right)
Carl Edwards: wOBA: vs R: .204 vs L: .267 (better vs right)
Pedro Strop: wOBA: vs R: .307 vs L: .230 (better vs lefties)
Grimm: wOBA: vs R: .328 vs L: 327 (flat split and both are bad)
Duensing: wOBA: vs R: .290 vs L .296 (flat again but both are a bit better)

Now on Maples: it is a small sample but vs L .314 vs R .411 It just shows that he has work to do before getting in there again.

So what does this mean? Well by the numbers Strop is the best option vs lefties right now. Edwards is flat hard to hit in general and should be the set up. Wilson is better vs righties and is a one inning pitcher. Grimm and Duesing are neutral pitchers so can be put in vs either in lower pressure situations for a full inning.

But to show Morrow's value: wOBA vs L: .139 by far the best mark. vs R: .239 again respectable. Not as dominate as Cishek or Edwards marks but that was his worst split.

He deserves the nod honestly. If anything they really need a Loogy more than anything.

wOBA Rules of Thumb (for a hitter) Just to show the value of these splits.
Rating wOBA
Excellent .400
Great .370
Above Average .340
Average .320
Below Average .310
Poor .300
Awful .290

 

[chibears55]

Morrow had a career year. 1.7 WAR in 43.2 IP. .282 BABIP This is where I believe he is sustainable. It was not far off of league avg. 10.31 SO/9 was over his career avg of 9.19 1.85 was well below his career mark of 3.90. The question for him is sustainability. The BB/9 to me is his major concern. Now in 2016 with the Pads it was at 1.69 in a brief stint so it could also be a new trend with him also.

Over all it was a gamble but the signs kinda show that he may end up doing what Davis did before in his conversion from starter to set up to closer. Seems the Cubs want that vs paying for the aftermath.

Steve Cishek: wOBA: vs R: .192 vs L .287 (better vs right)
Justion Wilson: wOBA: vs R: .270 vs L: .312 (better vs right)
Carl Edwards: wOBA: vs R: .204 vs L: .267 (better vs right)
Pedro Strop: wOBA: vs R: .307 vs L: .230 (better vs lefties)
Grimm: wOBA: vs R: .328 vs L: 327 (flat split and both are bad)
Duensing: wOBA: vs R: .290 vs L .296 (flat again but both are a bit better)

Now on Maples: it is a small sample but vs L .314 vs R .411 It just shows that he has work to do before getting in there again.

So what does this mean? Well by the numbers Strop is the best option vs lefties right now. Edwards is flat hard to hit in general and should be the set up. Wilson is better vs righties and is a one inning pitcher. Grimm and Duesing are neutral pitchers so can be put in vs either in lower pressure situations for a full inning.

But to show Morrow's value: wOBA vs L: .139 by far the best mark. vs R: .239 again respectable. Not as dominate as Cishek or Edwards marks but that was his worst split.

He deserves the nod honestly. If anything they really need a Loogy more than anything.

Looking as if that the direction the cubs are going with Morrow closing...

Thing is he had just over 60 games out of the pen the last 2 seasons (started before that), none as closer...
Just a different animal mentally being out there in 9th closing games and getting those final outs ...
Hope he can handle it

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[CSF77]

Looking as if that the direction the cubs are going with Morrow closing...

Thing is he had just over 60 games out of the pen the last 2 seasons (started before that), none as closer...
Just a different animal mentally being out there in 9th closing games and getting those final outs ...
Hope he can handle it

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We can say that about any closer in the league. They all have to progress to that point.

 

[chibears55]

We can say that about any closer in the league. They all have to progress to that point.

Right.. but the cubs are asking and hoping a 34 yo will be able to do this for first time in a year their supposed to be WS contenders..
It a risk hoping he progresses throughout season and dont become Rondon 2016 where they ended up needing to sell top prospects to get a seasoned closer...

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[The-0]

I’d like to see 9 in the pen if we don’t bring in another starter. We’ve got the versatile backups to do it for at least a few weeks. Give maples and Tseng the opportunity to show out and give every starter a short leash.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

I’d like to see 9 in the pen if we don’t bring in another starter. We’ve got the versatile backups to do it for at least a few weeks. Give maples and Tseng the opportunity to show out and give every starter a short leash.

Sounds like a strategy designed to bring in a .500 team at best, to be honest. Any plan that has the team carrying Maples and/or Tseng into Opening Day feels like giving up and cheaping out, to me. That, or drowning in a pool of deadly optimism, convinced that the extremely unlikely is just going to happen, no matter what.

Sure, either one could break out. But it's nearly as likely that my mother could perform just as effectively. And she's 86...

 

[The-0]

Sounds like a strategy designed to bring in a .500 team at best, to be honest. Any plan that has the team carrying Maples and/or Tseng into Opening Day feels like giving up and cheaping out, to me. That, or drowning in a pool of deadly optimism, convinced that the extremely unlikely is just going to happen, no matter what.

Sure, either one could break out. But it's nearly as likely that my mother could perform just as effectively. And she's 86...

I don’t see that. Both have major league stuff and maybe even high end stuff. Just need to prove it on the big stage. Instead of bringing up zag or another guy and taking AAA at bats away from them give the pitchers a chance to make a name. Better case scenario we sign Yu and don’t have to worry about it.

 

[Omeletpants]

Sounds like a strategy designed to bring in a .500 team at best, to be honest.

Nothing like exaggeration

 

[DanTown]

Nothing wrong with being a decent bench player. Zagunis could probably start on teams that aren't competitive it's just not as appealing for mediocre power guy in a corner. But in my eyes, Hannemann is more or less your ideal 4th/5th of type. He hit .269/.322/.426 in the minors vs RHP as a lefty. League average last year among OF vs RHP was .261/.332/.443. If you narrow that to players who played some CF it's .260/.332/.426. So, he's more or less league average vs RHP. When you factor in good defense and speed for pinch running he's a pretty helpful platoon guy.

He had a .312 OBP between AA/AAA last year (age 26)
He had a .326 OBP in 327 PA in AA in 2016 (age 25)

There is no way his bat is ready to play in the majors. He simply cannot hit. And I don't get where he gets playing time in the OF as a late inning replacement considering this roster already has Almora and Heyward and you could probably get away with guys like Zobrist or Happ in LF.

Makes sense in an expanded roster situation but you cant just be a glove on a MLB team, especially with Joe only going with four bench players and one of them being a catcher so he'd still have to bat most weeks even in a true bench situation.

 

[beckdawg]

He had a .312 OBP between AA/AAA last year (age 26)
He had a .326 OBP in 327 PA in AA in 2016 (age 25)

There is no way his bat is ready to play in the majors. He simply cannot hit. And I don't get where he gets playing time in the OF as a late inning replacement considering this roster already has Almora and Heyward and you could probably get away with guys like Zobrist or Happ in LF.

Makes sense in an expanded roster situation but you cant just be a glove on a MLB team, especially with Joe only going with four bench players and one of them being a catcher so he'd still have to bat most weeks even in a true bench situation.

Then who are you suggesting they should roster instead? Like if you're saying they sign someone else cheaply fine. But if you're saying they should go with Zagunis instead because he hits better what's the fucking point? He's never going to find playing time in a corner. He's just not. If it's not Schwarber or Heyward it will be Happ or Zobrist. And if it's not Happ or Zobrist it may very well be Bryant with Baez at 3B in some weird situations.

As for him needing to be a bat I totally disagree. The team went into the season with Szczur as their #5 OF last year. He was a career .237/.318/.368 hitter who wasn't as good defensively in CF. Fact of the matter is the #5 outfielder isn't going to bat much because you're not playing him much. You're going to shuffle around 11 or so guys a lot to get them all PAs closer to 400-500 and La Stella and whoever the last OF/last batter is is probably only getting 100-200 PAs tops.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

I vote for finding someone like Austin Jackson, decent defense, useful bat off the bench, on a one year deal for a million or so. Sort of like the deal we had with Jay last year. Not saying we must sign one of those two guys, but there are like 20 OF FAs out there who are looking at either signing a one year deal, or hanging it up at age 32 or so. Guys who could still contribute, but are bad fits for the rebuilders, who want their AAA guys up for experience, even though they'll lose 100 games with them, and for contenders, who all want the highest end starting players, even as their bench warmers.

A lot of guys are getting forced out earlier than before because we have more dedicated rebuilds happening at once than we used to. And more .500 teams who think this will be their breakout year. So, people like Jackson and Jay are increasingly available, relatively cheap, on one year deals. I'd be surprised if we don't see the Cubs pick up one of those, or a third catcher, before they break camp.

I figure Avila isn't in the discussion simply because the Cubs think he's a starting catcher, and we can't use him in that role. And they had all the drama they needed last year from a guy who saw himself as the starting catcher and found himself as the frustrated backup...

 

[beckdawg]

I vote for finding someone like Austin Jackson, decent defense, useful bat off the bench, on a one year deal for a million or so.

I wouldn't be opposed to that either but you gotta keep the price really low. They only have around $25-27 mil to play with to stay under the luxury tax and obviously someone like Darvish or Arrieta is a bigger concern. Only reason I even think Hannemann makes sense is they are already paying him to be on the 40 man. If you can get both Darvish and an older vet who's proven more then by all means go for it. But it seems like money on Darvish is gonna be a bit tight.

 

[DanTown]

Then who are you suggesting they should roster instead? Like if you're saying they sign someone else cheaply fine. But if you're saying they should go with Zagunis instead because he hits better what's the fucking point? He's never going to find playing time in a corner. He's just not. If it's not Schwarber or Heyward it will be Happ or Zobrist. And if it's not Happ or Zobrist it may very well be Bryant with Baez at 3B in some weird situations.

As for him needing to be a bat I totally disagree. The team went into the season with Szczur as their #5 OF last year. He was a career .237/.318/.368 hitter who wasn't as good defensively in CF. Fact of the matter is the #5 outfielder isn't going to bat much because you're not playing him much. You're going to shuffle around 11 or so guys a lot to get them all PAs closer to 400-500 and La Stella and whoever the last OF/last batter is is probably only getting 100-200 PAs tops.

The problem you have is quoting a guys AAA numbers (which are god awful considering age) and comparing that to a different guys MLB numbers. Sczuzr for most of his career in the minors was in the mid .350s for OBP. I mean, why would you ever take Heyward or Almora out of the game for Hannenman? What situation does he even help you? Szczur in 2016 played in the OF only 41 times off the bench and had 200 PA but only 353 innings in the field so he basically was a spot starter who barely got in as a defensive replacement and I bet a lot of those innings were low leverage.

If you're going to ask me what's more important: a righty who can play LF and has shown a great ability to get on base versus a lefty who can field but doesn't hit then the answer to me is the righty especially considering the other OF. The Cubs already have two lefty OF so a third lefty means very little.

And Zagunis is far more likely to contribute in a high leverage situation with his bat than Hannenman and I don't consider Hannemann's speed and defense to have the same ability to help the team.

 

[anotheridiot]

I think all Sczcur had WAS defensive replacement. Most times I remember were one run games. Eventually he got to start against lefties and started to rake, but for the most part, he was the defensive specialist in a game that did not get an at bat.

Actually https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/szczuma01.shtml

he only started 29 games, but played in 70, so 29 games with 3-4 at bats were most of his PA.

 

[anotheridiot]

I vote for finding someone like Austin Jackson, decent defense, useful bat off the bench, on a one year deal for a million or so. Sort of like the deal we had with Jay last year. Not saying we must sign one of those two guys, but there are like 20 OF FAs out there who are looking at either signing a one year deal, or hanging it up at age 32 or so. Guys who could still contribute, but are bad fits for the rebuilders, who want their AAA guys up for experience, even though they'll lose 100 games with them, and for contenders, who all want the highest end starting players, even as their bench warmers.

A lot of guys are getting forced out earlier than before because we have more dedicated rebuilds happening at once than we used to. And more .500 teams who think this will be their breakout year. So, people like Jackson and Jay are increasingly available, relatively cheap, on one year deals. I'd be surprised if we don't see the Cubs pick up one of those, or a third catcher, before they break camp.

I figure Avila isn't in the discussion simply because the Cubs think he's a starting catcher, and we can't use him in that role. And they had all the drama they needed last year from a guy who saw himself as the starting catcher and found himself as the frustrated backup...

You need to let Almora go in to this as the starter. Even though game 1 I expect to see Heyward in center and Zobrist in left so Javy starts at second.

All I am reading is this "tax" worry. Where do you expect this team to go when Russell, Javy, Bryant, Rizzo and Schwarber get bumps. Nobody coming off the books, only adding more on. Yeah, a low dollar deal for a veteran is nice, but not if the manager is going to start him like he did Jay and back Almora up more from his development.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Right.. but the cubs are asking and hoping a 34 yo will be able to do this for first time in a year their supposed to be WS contenders..
It a risk hoping he progresses throughout season and dont become Rondon 2016 where they ended up needing to sell top prospects to get a seasoned closer...

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Morrow's stuff plays perfectly as a closer with a better BB/9 than Davis. I don't think anyone, even you, is arguing that part though. As far as the mental aspect this FO is good at those kind of assessments and I trust them here. I also think that the ninth inning thing can be overstated. Yes, some guys have failed there and found other roles better suited to them, but frankly that's more exception than norm and it's usually the stuff that determines effectiveness as a closer. When it gets to the point that you have to pay 10% of your payroll to a closer I'm all for coming up with other solutions. Ideally you'd develop a younger guy and in a perfect world that guy would have been Edwards but he has shown to be one of those guys you're talking about who probably doesn't have the mental makeup to be a closer, there is nothing about Morrow that raises those same red flags.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

You need to let Almora go in to this as the starter. Even though game 1 I expect to see Heyward in center and Zobrist in left so Javy starts at second.

All I am reading is this "tax" worry. Where do you expect this team to go when Russell, Javy, Bryant, Rizzo and Schwarber get bumps. Nobody coming off the books, only adding more on. Yeah, a low dollar deal for a veteran is nice, but not if the manager is going to start him like he did Jay and back Almora up more from his development.

We really need to start calling the luxury tax what it is, a salary cap. It's still not technically a "hard cap" like in other sports but it's gotten closer. Never again will see a team exceed it for 15 years straight like the Yankees did up until getting under for 2018 or even the 6 years the Dodgers did it before doing the same thing. It's not just the money it's the draft implications, international signing restrictions and even restrictions on compensatory picks in terms of the QO system. At this point to go over the cap for more than 2 straight years is foolish and I'm not so sure you'll ever see any team do that again. Small and medium market teams operate under the restriction that they can't keep their star players and this system is designed so that big market teams can't keep all of their. The Cubs won't be retaining every player going forward and we've seen some of that already. This is just the world MLB is in now.

 

[anotheridiot]

there cannot be a salary cap without a salary floor. The reason it works in other sports is it forces teams to take contracts of superstar players, whether they are living up to it or not. It helps the entire league. Whatever percentage players contracts are advancing should be the percentage the tax level ends up growing. You cant continue to get 25 million dollar players if each team is not expected to have one.