Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

Week 5 in the winter leagues was a little quiet, as the Cubs did not make any further moves or add any more players to the winter league rosters. But Manuel Rodriguez continues to impress in Mexico while Gioskar Amaya continues his comeback in Venezuela.


Mexican Pacific League

Caneros de los Mochis

It seems that Los Mochis can never string together any success this year, but Wednesday saw the Caneros top equally inconsistent Navojoa 2-1. Entering in the sixth inning, Manuel Rodriguez had one of his best outings of the winter, tossing two perfect innings and striking out three. Los Mochis 2 - Navojoa 1

The first half race is tightening in LMP, as the Canemen moved to three games out of first place with a fourteen inning 5-4 victory over league leading Culiacan on Saturday. With two out in the eleventh inning, Manuel Rodriguez entered and struck out three in 2.1 scoreless innings. Los Mochis 5 - Culiacan 4



Tomateros de Culiacan

It was a total collapse for Culiacan on Wednesday, as the Tomateros allowed seven runs in the final two innings to lose 9-2 to Hermosillo. Ali Solis caught the entire game and was 1-for-3 in the loss. Hermosillo 9 - Culiacan 2

The Tomatomen fell into a three way tie of first place on Saturday with a 5-4 loss to Los Mochis fourteen innings. Running for Alexis Wilson in the eighth inning, Ali Solis stayed in to catch the rest of the game and go 1-for-2 at the plate. Caneros 5 - Tomateros 4



Venezuelan Winter League

Cardenales de Lara

In Monday night’s spotlight game, Lara pitching was roughed up in a 9-7 loss to Zulia. Coming in for former Cubs prospect Yoanner Negrin with one out in the fifth, Yapson Gomez gave up two earned runs while failing to record an out. Zulia 9 - Lara 7

It was a doubleheader day on Friday for the Cardenales as they were thumped in Game 1 by Zulia 5-1. Iowa right-hander Williams Perez served up four earned runs in the first inning, including a three-run home run. Perez would go only 2.1 innings and strike out three batters. Zulia 5 - Lara 1



Caribes de Anzoategui

Anzoategui continued to try and crawl out of the VWL basement on Sunday as they took Game 2 of a doubleheader with Margarita 3-0. Erick Castillo caught the second game and was 1-for-3 in the win. Anzoategui 3 - Margarita 0

Still fighting to stay relevant in the first half of the season, the Caribes defeated Magallanes 6-2 on Thursday. Erick Castillo had a hand in the outcome, as he was 1-for-2 with a double and a run scored. Anzoategui 6 - Magallanes 2

The Tribe broke out their bats on Friday as they pounded out 16 hits in an 11-6 victory over Magallanes. Erick Castillo was back at catcher and went 1-for-5 with a run scored in the victory. Anzoategui 11 - Magallanes 6



Navegantes del Magallanes

In the only game on the schedule on Tuesday, Magallanes continued the trend of high scoring affairs in the VWL with a 10-6 in over Caracas. In his first start in the field, Gioskar Amaya was 1-for-3 with a walk, an RBI, and a run scored while manning second base. Magallanes 10 - Caracas 6

Make it two in a row for the Navegantes as they used a three-run seventh to edge out Anzoategui 8-5 on Wednesday. Gioskar Amaya moved over to third base and was 0-for-4, but had an RBI and a walk in the win. Magallanes 8 - Anzoategui 5

In a slugfest on Friday, the Nav’s were unable to keep up with Anzoategui, losing 11-6. Gioskar Amaya was back at second base and went 1-for-4 in the loss. Caribes 11 - Navegantes 6

The offense continued to be in high gear for Magallanes on Saturday as they turned 12 hits into an 8-5 victory over La Guaira. Joining in on the festivities was Gioskar Amaya, who went 1-for-4 while remaining at second base. Magallanes 8 - La Guaira 5



Bravos de Margarita

Margarita was stymied on Friday night, as their six hits led to nothing in a 6-0 loss to Caracas. Eugenio Palma was the only Braves pitcher not scored upon, as he tossed a perfect sixth inning. Caracas 6 - Margarita 0



Tiburones de La Guaira

In a potential bid for a second half surge, LaGuaira doubled up Margarita 10-5 on Wednesday. After a few starts at third base, Yasiel Balaguert was at DH and homered in the seventh inning, going 1-for-4 with two RBI. La Guaira 10 - Margarita 5



Tigres de Aragua

Aragua started the week on a sour note, losing to Magallanes 5-3. Stephen Perakslis was roughed up once again, allowing five earned runs on seven hits and a walk in 3.2 innings. Teammate James Pugliese was able to stem the tide, pitching 1.1 innings of relief. Lead-off hitter Carlos Penalver was 0-for-5. Magallanes 5 - Aragua 3

Two days off were no help for the Tigers on Wednesday, as they were humbled by Caracas 7-2. Former Iowa Cub Seth Frankoff throttled Aragua for five innings, as Carlos Penalver went 0-for-4. James Pugliese entered in the seventh and struck out a batter while giving up a hit in 1.1 scoreless innings. Caracas 7 - Aragua 2

A pitcher’s duel on Saturday saw the Tigres come out on the short end, as they lost to Zulia 1-0. Carlos Penalver collected one of Aragua’s five hits, as he went 1-for-3 in the loss. Zulia 1 - Aragua 0

 

[beckdawg]

Stinnett is honestly becoming intriguing right now. I'm not 100% in on him because of his walk rates in the minors. 3.38 per 9. But in the pen it has gone to 3.18. SO/9 career 7.59 in pen: 10.75. So 12.6 in the AFL is not a aberration. To say the least he is becoming interesting as long as he can get his BB/9 around 2.

Thing was he was a closer in college if memory serves and the cubs saw something that made them think he could start though I do believe he was a under slot signing. So the fact he's pitching well in relief isn't that surprising. Probably not ideal for a 2nd round pick but given what reliever prices are these days maybe it's not so bad. He seems pretty safe to make it to the majors at this point.

 

[CSF77]

Thing was he was a closer in college if memory serves and the cubs saw something that made them think he could start though I do believe he was a under slot signing. So the fact he's pitching well in relief isn't that surprising. Probably not ideal for a 2nd round pick but given what reliever prices are these days maybe it's not so bad. He seems pretty safe to make it to the majors at this point.

Like I said. He really needs to get his BB/9 around 2. 3+ at that level is just going to implode vs advanced hitting. This will be the issue Maples will see also. But the talent is there for sure. They just need to keep around the plate.

 

[beckdawg]

Like I said. He really needs to get his BB/9 around 2. 3+ at that level is just going to implode vs advanced hitting. This will be the issue Maples will see also. But the talent is there for sure. They just need to keep around the plate.

3 bb/9 is basically average among pitching. League wide starters were at 7.96/3.13 while relievers were at 8.97/3.55. It's not ideal obviously but it's not that big of a deal if he gets strikeouts.

 

[CSF77]

3 bb/9 is basically average among pitching. League wide starters were at 7.96/3.13 while relievers were at 8.97/3.55. It's not ideal obviously but it's not that big of a deal if he gets strikeouts.

That is true but this is against younger talent that tends to swing more to get noticed.

I see him in Iowa myself. Which could be interesting with him, Maples and Black when he gets back. Could end up a power back of the rotation.

On Mills I really don’t know his upside. I didn’t like the whole curve ball lacking thing and being a fastball/change guy. It really makes him limited going forward. Some guys can pull it off but with out a legit 3rd pitch I’m doubtful. Regardless I see him in Iowa again proving that he is healthy.

 

[beckdawg]

That is true but this is against younger talent that tends to swing more to get noticed.

I see him in Iowa myself. Which could be interesting with him, Maples and Black when he gets back. Could end up a power back of the rotation.

On Mills I really don’t know his upside. I didn’t like the whole curve ball lacking thing and being a fastball/change guy. It really makes him limited going forward. Some guys can pull it off but with out a legit 3rd pitch I’m doubtful. Regardless I see him in Iowa again proving that he is healthy.

K/bb rates tend to be fairly similar level to level. Specifically walk rates tend to be pretty accurate because if you have command you're using it. K rates drop a little often vs what you did in the minors but that's not always the case. Difference is obviously better hitters strike out less but if you're walking guys you're going to still walk them regardless of level. On way it's really different are guys who chase out of the zone pitches but there's not enough of that to really warrant worrying about.

 

[DanTown]

I like Stinnett but he’s already going to be 26 so it’s time to see how he does at AAA and maybe he’s a major leaguer when an injury happens.

 

[beckdawg]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-chicago-cubs/

Fangraphs rankings of cubs

 

[CSF77]

Guess they hate Tseng in general. Bunch of players who honestly have low chance of making it but the guy that proved to have the best year and come back is a non factor. They even ranked Mills who has realistically 2 pitches while Tseng has 4.

IDK honestly on this. I get Alozay as the top arm. BA did this also with Adlman as the 1. I’m fine with that. MLB was giving too much love to a DL case IMO anyways. Lange and Little you can switch back and forth and no one will care. Put a player in between then you might get some eyebrows raised. Not enough info to separate 2 pretty close draft picks honestly.

So over all I’m not down with the snub of Tseng. Not when Paulino and Hudson are ranked ahead and honestly are nothing special and had back of the rotation seasons.

 

[beckdawg]

Guess they hate Tseng in general. Bunch of players who honestly have low chance of making it but the guy that proved to have the best year and come back is a non factor. They even ranked Mills who has realistically 2 pitches while Tseng has 4.

IDK honestly on this. I get Alozay as the top arm. BA did this also with Adlman as the 1. I’m fine with that. MLB was giving too much love to a DL case IMO anyways. Lange and Little you can switch back and forth and no one will care. Put a player in between then you might get some eyebrows raised. Not enough info to separate 2 pretty close draft picks honestly.

So over all I’m not down with the snub of Tseng. Not when Paulino and Hudson are ranked ahead and honestly are nothing special and had back of the rotation seasons.

Nothing to do with hating anyone. It's just that tseng is what he is. A low ceiling back of the rotation starter. It's the same thought process that lead Hendricks to be a BOR low on prospect list guy. Like the thing people need to understand about scouting is they will often fall into a trap of liking someone with tools more than someone who's useful today. It's great to have absurd stuff like say maples but if you can't actively throw strikes in the zone then what good are you?

On the flip side, I think the cubs front office really values command. They haven't selected many starters who have great stuff and iffy command. Some of that is about where they selected guys but in generally they appear to rather have Lester/Q types than higher k rate guys who may not have command. That's both good and bad. You limit the risk of totally sucking but you also likely miss out on some guys who end up being the literal cream of the crop.

 

[CSF77]

Nothing to do with hating anyone. It's just that tseng is what he is. A low ceiling back of the rotation starter. It's the same thought process that lead Hendricks to be a BOR low on prospect list guy. Like the thing people need to understand about scouting is they will often fall into a trap of liking someone with tools more than someone who's useful today. It's great to have absurd stuff like say maples but if you can't actively throw strikes in the zone then what good are you?

On the flip side, I think the cubs front office really values command. They haven't selected many starters who have great stuff and iffy command. Some of that is about where they selected guys but in generally they appear to rather have Lester/Q types than higher k rate guys who may not have command. That's both good and bad. You limit the risk of totally sucking but you also likely miss out on some guys who end up being the literal cream of the crop.

I doubt Jose Paulino Bryan Hudson Pedro Araujo Javier Assad will even make it to a major league game.

IMO the fact that Tseng has made it and pitched in a game vs a bunch of guys that may never play above the A level makes the whole system jaded.

 

[beckdawg]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/min...r.com&utm_campaign=buffer#RQkOT7mWc97Ot5Zb.97

 

[CSF77]

Found it intresting honestly. Cubs have no star level prospects and bottom 2 system. And with the new agreement etc they would have to tank to improve it.

Now on pitching: Hatch/Lange are most polished. Little most likely a pen arm. Alozay doesn’t have a 2nd polished pitch. Albertos too far away and De La Rosa injury concerns.

Other than that Theo has proven that they can draft hitters. Pitching has not been proven and for the most part has been miss

 

[beckdawg]

And with the new agreement etc they would have to tank to improve it.

I don't really agree with that. The podcast was a bit too dismissive of the cubs players IMO. I can certainly agree they lack someone who immediately screams impact today but look how young they are as a system. When you lose the guys to the majors they have it's going to really kill the impact talent. I feel like the biggest thing prospect people over look is floor. Kyle Hendricks was not a big time prospect. I mean I literally had to hit my soap box for him for 2-3 years before his break out in 2016 for anyone to see him as more than a 5th starter. I'm not necessarily saying that type of player happens often but Tseng is a similar pitcher who throws strikes and is going to be useful. I also like Keegan Thompson and Michael Rucker a lot as guys who aren't likely rated high enough based on their floor.

The thing that really bothered me about the podcast was two fold. First they are way underselling the cubs ability to find hitting. They haven't just found hitting in the first round of the draft. They've found guys like young, burks, velazquez...etc later in drafts. And while guys like young/burks may just be bench players typically you don't find anything useful after say the 5th round. The fact they find guys that can hit routinely later in drafts is a big deal. Secondly, I think they aren't lending enough importance to system depth. If you need to see why just look at the system post Hendry. What in terms of pitching have the cubs been able to use that was left to them? Cashner and Shark were both already at the major league level. Since then what's come through the cubs draft pipeline? Maples? Think that's more or less it. Most of the younger players like Hendricks/Grimm they've had to trade in order to back fill.

What they currently have with their pitching is so much better. Take for example Clifton. He's probably the biggest down guy from last year but he at the very least may be able to give you something out of the bullpen. And while someone like Tseng isn't going to be an ace, him being able to provide a #5 starter on rookie money allows you to push resources else where. Until recently the cubs haven't had that luxury. We got the Feldman's and Hammel's of the world.

Ultimately I think the answer to their question where the pitching comes from will be HS arms. Because of the mentioned lack of depth they've been forced to draft college pitchers more often. They've made a few detours on guys like Cease/Steele/Sands, Underwood, and last year Estrada but by in large they've been going with college arms and they aren't going to have high upsides outside of the first 20 or so picks. They have a 3-4 year window here with Q and Hendricks plus likely Lester/Darvish where they have bought themselves some time where they can develop younger arms. With their current top 10 being mostly pitchers they have several guys who at the very least will back fill the 4/5 slots.

Also, the cubs are likely to be heavily involved in IFA next year. They could have used 2018 IFA money on the braves guys who were released but to the best of my knowledge they didn't even sniff on any of them. That tells me they likely already have deals lined out for some of the higher tier 2018 IFAs. They could realistically add Juan Pablo Martinez who's a 21 year old CF who likely could be top 100 the day he signs. Osiel Rodriguez is a 15 year old cuban who already throws 95. When you consider the names they added in 2013(Eloy, Tseng, Torres, Galindo) and 2015(Ademan, Paredes, Albertos) the cubs can greatly improve some of their ceiling there. And I still like some of the 2015 class to break through more than they have(I mean they are only 18).

 

[CSF77]

I don't really agree with that. The podcast was a bit too dismissive of the cubs players IMO. I can certainly agree they lack someone who immediately screams impact today but look how young they are as a system. When you lose the guys to the majors they have it's going to really kill the impact talent. I feel like the biggest thing prospect people over look is floor. Kyle Hendricks was not a big time prospect. I mean I literally had to hit my soap box for him for 2-3 years before his break out in 2016 for anyone to see him as more than a 5th starter. I'm not necessarily saying that type of player happens often but Tseng is a similar pitcher who throws strikes and is going to be useful. I also like Keegan Thompson and Michael Rucker a lot as guys who aren't likely rated high enough based on their floor.

The thing that really bothered me about the podcast was two fold. First they are way underselling the cubs ability to find hitting. They haven't just found hitting in the first round of the draft. They've found guys like young, burks, velazquez...etc later in drafts. And while guys like young/burks may just be bench players typically you don't find anything useful after say the 5th round. The fact they find guys that can hit routinely later in drafts is a big deal. Secondly, I think they aren't lending enough importance to system depth. If you need to see why just look at the system post Hendry. What in terms of pitching have the cubs been able to use that was left to them? Cashner and Shark were both already at the major league level. Since then what's come through the cubs draft pipeline? Maples? Think that's more or less it. Most of the younger players like Hendricks/Grimm they've had to trade in order to back fill.

What they currently have with their pitching is so much better. Take for example Clifton. He's probably the biggest down guy from last year but he at the very least may be able to give you something out of the bullpen. And while someone like Tseng isn't going to be an ace, him being able to provide a #5 starter on rookie money allows you to push resources else where. Until recently the cubs haven't had that luxury. We got the Feldman's and Hammel's of the world.

Ultimately I think the answer to their question where the pitching comes from will be HS arms. Because of the mentioned lack of depth they've been forced to draft college pitchers more often. They've made a few detours on guys like Cease/Steele/Sands, Underwood, and last year Estrada but by in large they've been going with college arms and they aren't going to have high upsides outside of the first 20 or so picks. They have a 3-4 year window here with Q and Hendricks plus likely Lester/Darvish where they have bought themselves some time where they can develop younger arms. With their current top 10 being mostly pitchers they have several guys who at the very least will back fill the 4/5 slots.

Also, the cubs are likely to be heavily involved in IFA next year. They could have used 2018 IFA money on the braves guys who were released but to the best of my knowledge they didn't even sniff on any of them. That tells me they likely already have deals lined out for some of the higher tier 2018 IFAs. They could realistically add Juan Pablo Martinez who's a 21 year old CF who likely could be top 100 the day he signs. Osiel Rodriguez is a 15 year old cuban who already throws 95. When you consider the names they added in 2013(Eloy, Tseng, Torres, Galindo) and 2015(Ademan, Paredes, Albertos) the cubs can greatly improve some of their ceiling there. And I still like some of the 2015 class to break through more than they have(I mean they are only 18).

Pretty sure they rank off of a pitchers fastball. Tseng his 93 but it lacks movement. But he is able to locate it and has 4 plus pitches to work off of it.

Hendricks is a 2 seem/change up guy. Both pitches are plus movement but he lacks the array that Tseng has. Not really the same guy.

Clifton dropped 5 MPH at AA. The same thing happened to Tseng when he got there. Most likely a wall they have to get over in arm durability.

Now they did say that they have a bunch of B rate prospects but no A list and I agree with this.

 

[beckdawg]

Pretty sure they rank off of a pitchers fastball.

Kind of. All rankings are based on scouting grades. With regards to a fastball velocity certainly plays a part in it but you'll hear people talk about the spin rate of players like Edwards which gives movement to the pitch. Likewise on other pitches they will focus on movement more. My biggest issue with the way places rank pitching prospects is they don't give enough credit to control and they don't give enough emphasis to "pitchability." There's a bunch of guys who live purely on over powering stuff and don't know how to "pitch" which ends up killing them when they get to AA/AAA. Those to factors in essence are Hendricks. He lacks the big tools other than his change up but if you limit your walks and you know how to pitch to get outs you're going to be effective.

I suppose in some ways the best way to describe the way they list pitching is they aren't trying to identify quality starters. They are trying to find the next ace with rankings. This is largely why no one cares about Tseng. No one is trying to find a guy who can be league average. And I think in some regards that's the wrong way to approach things. I feel as though more often than you'd think those league average types are better than league average. And more often than not the guys with great stuff either don't have enough control to remain starters or never figure out how to "pitch" rather than throw.

Ultimately the cubs have targeted guys who have control with lower upsides and know how to pitch. The idea people have is that you can't do that because where do you get your "aces." I've always said that's faulty logic. If you can consistently fill 3-5 in your rotation with cheap players between $500k-$7 mil pre-arb through arb 3 you can spend significantly more money on your #1/2 starters and you aren't paying the cost in terms of development attrition. For example, take Chatwood who's probably going to be the cubs #5. They are paying him $12.5 mi. A decent #3 is probably making $15-20 mil. so for the sake of argument let's just say a pure FA 3-5 is something like $50 mil or slightly more depending on how good you want them to be. Even if you get your #3-5 as arb 3 ~$7 mil guys that's $29 mil leaving you $21 mil you could theoretically spend on your #1/2. If you have let's say $80 mil to spend on your starting 5 as a max you could spend close to $60 mil on your top two starters.

That's why I think depth is more important than people let on.

 

[CSF77]

On the pitching part. 4 seem higher spin gives more movement. 2 seem lower spin rates give more. Kyle’s is at 2000. Edwards 4 is at 2500

I almost think Tseng needs to go with a 2 seem but I believe he gets enough swing and miss off his off speed that he can get away with a located 4 seem mixed in. Guys like him are very pitchable with high floors.

Now what I’ve seen is Theo has gone into the draft with a high floor agenda. Bryant and Schwarber were top 4 picks so they had higher top end. But in general their drafts have been “safe” early round (exception is Little due to a bonus pick) later round HS guys that might not sign.

Now their high projection guys that they have got has come via international and that is where you got De La Rosa And Albertos. That has been the area that you can look for high ceiling types for the most parts but they get them at 16 where they can mold them vs polish.

Honestly at this point They are not going be able to build via the draft for a while. Int Is where they have to strike if the talent warrants it. Even then all it costs is cash going there.

The trade avenue honestly they just have to stop trading and work on building the system. If they need a arm etc buy it in the offseason. After that look at the waver wire to pick up gambles. But coming in as a buyer should be over right now. They are 30 mil under tax and are not a small market

 

[beckdawg]

Austin Upshaw might be a guy to watch from the 2017 class. The guy can really hit. He hit .361/.416/.515 in 682 PAs in college and hit .290/.339/.381 in 290 PAs at south bend after being drafted. Given he was a 13th round pick there's always a catch. In my estimation there's two main hang ups. First, while his .153 college ISO isn't bad it's less than stellar for a corner infielder. League average among 1B in MLB last year was .211 ISO and .182 among 3B. That then leads into positional questions which is the second hang up. He played 3B in college. He was more a utility guy in South Bend. Played 25 games at 1B, 16 at 2B and 11 at 3B.

I didn't follow SB that closely but they do have several guys at 3B so it could just be a case of them wanting to move him around and stick with other guys at 3B. For example, I think Andruw Monasterio is a glove first guy and he was with SB all year. And I think he was the guy predominantly playing 3B over Upshaw. So, I wouldn't be super concerned long term and in some ways it's probably better to get Upshaw utility work given if he is to make the cubs one day that's likely where it will be.

With that being said, I'm wondering if he doesn't end up a bit like Martin Prado. Prado early on played 1B/2B/3B/LF though now is purely a 3B guy. He hit .130 for ISO and .291/.340/.422 overall with 6.7%/11.1% bb/k rates. Upshaw in college was 8.6%/10.4% bb/k rate and in south bend he was 6.1%/13.5%. Upshaw is still pretty young by college standards. He doesn't turn 22 until july. So, I'd imagine he'll add some power though I wouldn't expect it to be much. Overall I feel like that Prado comp might be pretty good. Prado was never a world beater but was a pretty useful guy. In his 12 MLB seasons he's been wroth 24.4 fWAR though to be fair that's more like 8 seasons given he was a utility guy early on and didn't play a ton.

Overall though I love the way the cubs draft bats. Upshaw isn't going to make a top 100 list. Hell he may not even make many top 20 lists. But the same could have been said about Prado. And guys who can hit are always going to hit. You see this with guys like Chesny Young and Zagunis. The fact they are still finding guys like that in the 13th round is fairly remarkable.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/...o-the-hitters-look-after-a-season-and-a-half/

 

[CSF77]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2018/...00-prospects-at-least-according-to-keith-law/