Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

Mid season promote train:

Erich Uelmen to A+
Cory Abbott A+
Keegan Thompson AA
Matt Swarmer AA
Trevor Clifton AAA

Staying at level:

Oscar De La Cruz
Alex Lange
Brendon Little
Thomas Hatch
Michael Rucker
Javier Assad
Bryan Hudson

Now I see Iowa flushed out next year. Clifton most likely becomes the defacto staff ace with Hatch in the rotation. Underwood I believe becomes trade bait and Tsng and Mills cut. ODLC IMO should be pushed into the pen at Iowa. Has plus stuff but not avg 5 IP per is a red flag. Alzolay could go either way pen vs rotation. His injury really screwed him this year as it would have been him called up vs Underwood and there might have been a controversy going forward.

But as far as staff's.

AAA Clifton/Hatch are a safe bet. Rucker I see them promoting also. Alzolay and ODLC may end up as the 8/9 inning guys which I would approve of due to the pending F/A BP issue. Rest honestly should be AAAA types filling in for injury.

AA: Lange/Thompson should be the 1/2 on the staff. Abbott would be nice to bump up also. I wouldn't mind just seeing this staff loaded with plus arms and let the fringe fall off.

 

[beckdawg]

Lacy is just killing it this year. Had 7 k's in 5 innings tonight. That gives him 61 k's in 54 innings(10.16 k/9) and 15 walks(2.21 bb/9) with his 2.17 ERA. Given this performance I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the top 20 prospects come rerank time.

 

[beckdawg]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-7-2/

Some interesting notes on cubs guys here.

In particular Reivaj Garcia caught my eye. It's some what uncommon for 16 year old to go straight to mesa unless they are top tier guys. Not only is Garcia there but he's raking hitting .318/.400/.341. Granted there's no power but he's 16! Vast majority of guys in mesa are 18 or older. This is the same team with a number of the cubs draft picks on it(other mesa team appears to be mostly DSL graduates). So, you're talking about Artis who's 21, Slaughter who's 21, Wharton who's 22, Brennen Davis is there t 18, as are Ezequiel Pagan and Tyler Durna(21).

 

[beckdawg]

Keep an eye on Peyton Remy. He was a juco guy they drafted in 2017 so he's a touch old(21) for mesa but I've read his fastball is in the mid 90's and since debuting he's got a 27:7 k/bb rate over 18.1 innings including this year where he's thrown 12.1 with 17 k's 2 walks 7 hits and 1 ER. To put his age in context here, he's about 6 months older than cubs 2nd round pick Paul richan.

 

[chibears55]

This sucks..

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1015334851875102721?s=19

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[CSF77]

This sucks..

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1015334851875102721?s=19

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Most likely taking stuff to prevent injury. .his numbers were not earth shattering so with his track record more so recovery related.

 

[beckdawg]

This sucks..

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1015334851875102721?s=19

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If someone were going to get popped he's probably the one and at this time I'd want. There's like 20-30 games left in the season and given his injury track record having him full go all out is probably not advised. Plus he's pitched ok but not amazing. This I assume allows him to go back to extended spring training where they can simulate some games for him. Plus, it also allows some of the logjam of pitchers at A+ and A to be moved up a level.

I'm not sure how this effects AFL games if they count toward that 80 games. If they do then he's maybe only missing a month to start next year. And chances are they let him play winter ball to make up the time he missed.

 

[CSF77]

With ODLC out the rotation at AA stands at Hatch, Robinson, Rucker, Swarmer, Thompson

Swarmer is not doing well with the promote. 4.74 ERA .276 BAA 1.47 WHIP
Thompson got hammered on his greet for 8 runs but has tossed back to back 0 run outings. So you are seeing the talent gap between the two show at this level.

Hatch, Rucker and Robinson have faired well at Tenn but I doubt they are ready for a promotion. All are fringe types.

So Thompson is really looking like a nice find from 2018's draft. That draft is turning out some nice arms thus far.

 

[chibears55]

Moving on up....
Be cool to see him in AA by next season, which would mean he doing very well

https://twitter.com/PJ_Mooney/status/1017165226171686918?s=19

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[beckdawg]

Lacy's first start in A+ was fantastic. 5.1 4 hits 1 walk 7 k's.

 

[CSF77]

Moving on up....
Be cool to see him in AA by next season, which would mean he doing very well

https://twitter.com/PJ_Mooney/status/1017165226171686918?s=19

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They normally push the advanced bats to A- then A. Start year 2 at MB and let their production dictate. Bryant, Schwarber and Happ advanced very fast this way and expect the same

 

[CSF77]

Lacy's first start in A+ was fantastic. 5.1 4 hits 1 walk 7 k's.

Swarmer finally had a good game at Tenn. might have been correlated. Never know if Swarmer would get pushed down.

I’m accually shocked that they are not pushing Lange as they are with Keegan. Both are very similar situations.

 

[beckdawg]

I tried to dig into some numbers finding comparable players to Rollie Lacy and I'm struggling. Firstly, he's a ground ball machine. At A ball he posted a 62.1% ground ball rate. I'm not sure what the minor league average is at various levels but 45% is roughly the major league average. Going over 50% is pretty extreme ground ball territory. So, being over 60% is fairly bonkers. This year there's only 4 qualified pitchers over 55%, Dallas Keuchel(55.3%), Jake Arrieta(55.5%), Lance McCullers Jr.(55.9%) and Clayton Richard(57.4%).

The second thing that's so surprising is typically speaking high ground ball pitchers don't strike players out. This is the old Hendricks like thinking where you pitch to weak ground balls. That's not the case with Lacy. He's striking out a ridiculous amount of guys. We're talking 91 guys in 76.2 innings or 10.68 k/9. Another thing you typically see with high k rate guys is a creepingly high walk rate but he doesn't have that either with 21 walks on the season or 2.47 bb/9.

To compare Lacy to those 4 guys listed above, I'll throw in Marcus Stroman for fun. Richards at 22 in A and A+ had a 5.08 and 4.56 k/9. Arrieta debuted in A+ at 22 and was at 9.56 k/9 and 4.06 bb/9 but his ground ball rate was only 48.4%. Lance McCullers Jr. was drafted out of high school and progressed quicker. He was in A at 19 where he had 10.06 k/9 and a 4.21 bb/9 with 55.5% ground ball rate. In A+ at 20 he was 10.67 k/9 5.20 bb/9 and 48.0%. Keuchel was drafted at 21 and started his age 22 year in A+ where he put up 7.23 k/9 and 1.86 bb/9 with 62.1% ground ball rate. Stroman at age 22 was in AA as he was drafted a year earlier than Lacy but he put up 10.40 k/9 2.18 bb/9 with a 44.5% ground ball rate.

 

[CSF77]

I tried to dig into some numbers finding comparable players to Rollie Lacy and I'm struggling. Firstly, he's a ground ball machine. At A ball he posted a 62.1% ground ball rate. I'm not sure what the minor league average is at various levels but 45% is roughly the major league average. Going over 50% is pretty extreme ground ball territory. So, being over 60% is fairly bonkers. This year there's only 4 qualified pitchers over 55%, Dallas Keuchel(55.3%), Jake Arrieta(55.5%), Lance McCullers Jr.(55.9%) and Clayton Richard(57.4%).

The second thing that's so surprising is typically speaking high ground ball pitchers don't strike players out. This is the old Hendricks like thinking where you pitch to weak ground balls. That's not the case with Lacy. He's striking out a ridiculous amount of guys. We're talking 91 guys in 76.2 innings or 10.68 k/9. Another thing you typically see with high k rate guys is a creepingly high walk rate but he doesn't have that either with 21 walks on the season or 2.47 bb/9.

To compare Lacy to those 4 guys listed above, I'll throw in Marcus Stroman for fun. Richards at 22 in A and A+ had a 5.08 and 4.56 k/9. Arrieta debuted in A+ at 22 and was at 9.56 k/9 and 4.06 bb/9 but his ground ball rate was only 48.4%. Lance McCullers Jr. was drafted out of high school and progressed quicker. He was in A at 19 where he had 10.06 k/9 and a 4.21 bb/9 with 55.5% ground ball rate. In A+ at 20 he was 10.67 k/9 5.20 bb/9 and 48.0%. Keuchel was drafted at 21 and started his age 22 year in A+ where he put up 7.23 k/9 and 1.86 bb/9 with 62.1% ground ball rate. Stroman at age 22 was in AA as he was drafted a year earlier than Lacy but he put up 10.40 k/9 2.18 bb/9 with a 44.5% ground ball rate.

Brandon Webb

 

[beckdawg]

Brandon Webb

Webb at 22 in A+ threw 162.1 innings with only 8.8 k/9 and 2.4 bb/9. Fangraphs doesn't have ground ball data going back that far so I don't have that but clearly you're right he was a ground ball guy. Either way, point here I'm getting at is seeing that sort of K rate with a huge ground ball rate is pretty bonkers.

 

[CSF77]

Webb at 22 in A+ threw 162.1 innings with only 8.8 k/9 and 2.4 bb/9. Fangraphs doesn't have ground ball data going back that far so I don't have that but clearly you're right he was a ground ball guy. Either way, point here I'm getting at is seeing that sort of K rate with a huge ground ball rate is pretty bonkers.

only really matters at the upper levels. Lower levels he is going through greenhorns. AA-AAA he should start to see guys that have been in the minors for 5 years or more. That is when most posers show up.

I'm honestly more interested in Rucker in this level of talent. He really is showing that he is the next Kyle Hendricks. and he throws 91-94 with the best fastball command in the system. If anyone breaks in it should be him.

On higher level talent guys Lange is the best they have right now. Thompson they went with the same mold as Lange with a plus curve ball pitcher. So that seems the main theme that they are aiming at. Which means when they have a early round pick they are looking at fast bats and curve ball guys lately.

 

[CSF77]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQRDyJ9CAMM&ab_channel=SportZreport.com

 

[beckdawg]

only really matters at the upper levels. Lower levels he is going through greenhorns. AA-AAA he should start to see guys that have been in the minors for 5 years or more. That is when most posers show up.

I'm honestly more interested in Rucker in this level of talent. He really is showing that he is the next Kyle Hendricks. and he throws 91-94 with the best fastball command in the system. If anyone breaks in it should be him.

On higher level talent guys Lange is the best they have right now. Thompson they went with the same mold as Lange with a plus curve ball pitcher. So that seems the main theme that they are aiming at. Which means when they have a early round pick they are looking at fast bats and curve ball guys lately.

The point you're missing is relative talent. It's not that he's performing well and you go nuts over that. It's how well he's performing. You don't just get guys every day who are putting up 10+ k/9 and sub 3 walk rates. That's rare. I mean look I was the one pounding the table last season for Rucker being a guy to watch so you don't need to tell me about him but compare the two. Rucker had 114 k's in 106 IP. That's a 9.67 k/9. More importantly his ground ball rate was good at 46.7% in A+ but it wasn't elite. The front office in particular LOVES ground ball guys. It's why they brought in Chatwood. Well that and they thought his stuff would play up.

Regardless, the point here is that your k rate is pretty consistent level to level. Obviously if you're just more physically mature you can dominate some guys more than upper level minors hitters but to use Rucker as an example, he went from 8.87 k/9 in A+ to 8.62 this year in AA.

 

[CSF77]

The point you're missing is relative talent. It's not that he's performing well and you go nuts over that. It's how well he's performing. You don't just get guys every day who are putting up 10+ k/9 and sub 3 walk rates. That's rare. I mean look I was the one pounding the table last season for Rucker being a guy to watch so you don't need to tell me about him but compare the two. Rucker had 114 k's in 106 IP. That's a 9.67 k/9. More importantly his ground ball rate was good at 46.7% in A+ but it wasn't elite. The front office in particular LOVES ground ball guys. It's why they brought in Chatwood. Well that and they thought his stuff would play up.

Regardless, the point here is that your k rate is pretty consistent level to level. Obviously if you're just more physically mature you can dominate some guys more than upper level minors hitters but to use Rucker as an example, he went from 8.87 k/9 in A+ to 8.62 this year in AA.

Watching that video of his no hitter. And the camera angle was not optimal but it appears that he has a solid breaking pitch that he can move in and away from hitters. Having that kind of command of a breaking pitch at the lower levels pretty much left those hitters looking pathetic.

He is a 11th round pick so I'm not expecting much over all from him. I think of him akin to Swarmer. And that is the thing here. They have been really good about targeting these kind of arms. More pitcher vs raw thrower. I doubt we will find another Jake out of these types. Another Kyle more likely. Closest thing to another Jake is Lange.

 

[beckdawg]

Watching that video of his no hitter. And the camera angle was not optimal but it appears that he has a solid breaking pitch that he can move in and away from hitters. Having that kind of command of a breaking pitch at the lower levels pretty much left those hitters looking pathetic.

He is a 11th round pick so I'm not expecting much over all from him. I think of him akin to Swarmer. And that is the thing here. They have been really good about targeting these kind of arms. More pitcher vs raw thrower. I doubt we will find another Jake out of these types. Another Kyle more likely. Closest thing to another Jake is Lange.

Rucker was an 11th round pick as well. I honestly think you have the wrong idea about 11th round picks to begin with. They typically are more talented than you might otherwise expect. The reason for this is the first 5 rounds of the draft typically are guys with talent. In order to pay for that talent teams will skimp on guys 6-10. Now certainly that's not always the case with every pick. But the guys you take in 6-10 are often worse talent wise than the guys you take in the 11th round because the entire point may be to save slot money to push to other guys where as with the 11th round pick you can offer guys $125k at no cost. The other reason they may be more talented is because they are often guys you can't guarantee to lock down at a certain price. The guys you take 6-10 have to sign. You can't let them walk away because if they do you lose their slot money and I believe 6-10 you don't even get compensation picks for.

As that pertains to Lacy, I frankly don't care where he was picked. If they were to redraft right now that class he'd go much higher. The SEC is by far the best conference in college baseball but prospect guys compare it to A- in terms of talent. Lacy not only pitched well in A ball but he dominated. And granted he's only had 1 start in A+ but he dominated that game too. It's probably fair to compare Lacy to Rucker at this time last year as both took similar paths. However, I personally am always going to take a prospect who has higher ground ball rates all other things being equal or close to it. Keeping the ball on the ground works with guys who have 5-6 k/9. You put a guy who's posting 9-10 k/9 out there and they tend to be some of the best pitchers in MLB. Now maybe he's pitching above his league and those numbers will fall. But even if they fall to 80% of what they are now that's still a really exciting prospect.