Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[CSF77]

Matt Swarmer Is the most underated guy in the system.

 

[CSF77]

Lange and Little it’s too early but neither have taken off.

Thompson is very advanced. Worst case is a curve ball BP arm.

Rucker has the best fastball command in the system. Curve is good. Change is as good when he has feel for it.

Swarmer doesn’t walk much while striking guys out over 9.00 SO/9. Fact he is non ranked has another feel of pitichability with avg tool set.

I believe they will never go after any big arm types in the draft. If they do it will be in the international market. Too much risk involved

 

[CSF77]

http://www.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/club.jsp?team_id=555

 

[beckdawg]

Rosie
2:00 who's the biggest sleeper in the AZL that could become a big spec one day?

Eric A Longenhagen
2:02 Depends on what kind of perspective you have. Reivaj Garcia isn't a sleeper down here but he might be to you. I'll say Wilbis Santiago. Old for AZL but really loose, quick hands.

From fangraphs prospect chat today. Garcia just turned 17(19 days into 17) and hit .302/.362/.355 in mesa(110 wrc+). Sadly looks like he's not an amazing defender given he only played 2B but that's a pretty legit bat. Most international 16 year olds aren't even playing. It's usually age 17 before they even see time usually in DSL. So, he's probably 2 years ahead of most IFA prospects at a similar age and he obviously hit. Wouldn't entirely shock me to see him in South Bend to start next year though that would be fairly aggressive.

 

[beckdawg]

Something to watch next year.... Peyton Remy was a juco guy they drafted in 2017. He's pretty interesting with 52.1 IP 10.15 k/9 2.24 bb/9 and a 2.58/3.42 ERA/FIP. He's got good size(6' 2" / 170). He's maybe slightly behind the age curve because of being a juco guy. He literally just turned 22 so he's similar age to a college pitcher taken this year but typically college arms go to A- rather than staying around in mesa. I could definitely see him emerge like a Lacy/Rucker/Swarmer type.

 

[CSF77]

Weird, just noticed that Duncan Robinson got the Iowa promote after Mills went up. That was over Rucker and Hatch. .82 ERA. Big guy but not big stuff. Almost walks no one so that bit is nice.

Iowa seems interesting for a rotation. You know that Clifton ends up there. Robinson seems a lock. Rucker is forgone.

So Clifton/Robinson/Rucker set.

Hold overs: Alozay (not guaranteed a spot). Mills (doubtful). Underwood (ditto). Tseng (gone)

AA guys: Thompson should stick a half year. ODLC honestly has much to prove. Hatch ends up at AAA in the pen I’ll bet. I don’t see him roting at AA.

Over all I think it ends up Clifton/Robinson/Rucker with 2 adds. Underwood and Mills are a maybe for injury depth. Alozay and Hatch end up BP arms with Mekkes. Maples cracks the Cubs roster. Feeling it this Sept. 75 SO in 38 IP eventually translates over.

 

[CSF77]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/...s-the-cubs-minor-league-player-of-the-year-2/

 

[CSF77]

Justin Steele Retweeted

MLB Pipeline
✔
@MLBPipeline
5 #Cubs added to @mlbazfallleague roster:
RHP Bailey Clark
RHP Erick Leal
LHP Manuel Rondon
LHP Justin Steele
C Jhonny Pereda

 

[beckdawg]

Dan
2:32 Welcome back after a week off! Of the 2018 draftees, who in your mind has made the biggest rankings jump from where you and Kiley initially had them?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:35 Those evals tend not to change but the few that I believe we were light on and will alter this offseason: Cole Roederer (Cubs OF who I thought was a high-contact LF without pop, has gotten stronger than I anticipated he would and was crushing the b all in the AZL), Austin Cox (Royals lefty relief prospect with two-pitch mix that I think will miss big league bats, could move fast), Josiah Gray (Reds draftee, athletic conversion arm frmo small, northeastern school. Mid-90s, slider flashes plus, lots of strikes)

from fangraphs chat on prospects

 

[CSF77]

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2018/09/end-of-season-prospect-review-nico-hoerner/

 

[CSF77]

I was looking at this write up and it honestly made me think with his tool set. Raw speed and power. Not really fluid at SS but athletic. Why not move him to CF and lead off going up. They need a lead off and he is basically Bote at SS. Not really a plus but usable. But at CF he could be a potential lead off with speed.

 

[beckdawg]

I was looking at this write up and it honestly made me think with his tool set. Raw speed and power. Not really fluid at SS but athletic. Why not move him to CF and lead off going up. They need a lead off and he is basically Bote at SS. Not really a plus but usable. But at CF he could be a potential lead off with speed.

Teams typically don't just plug guys into CF willy nilly. I mean for instance, remember all the talk about Baez in CF? AFAIK he's never even played a pro game there yet. A lot of the issues outfielders face aren't just speed issues. It's how you read the ball. That's why a guy like Almora with above average but not great speed can make so many plays. It's also why Schwarber prior to this year looked so horrible in the OF. He wasn't taking good routes to the ball which given his lack of experience isn't that surprising.

He's better than Bote based on the tools grades I've seen. Bote is a utility guy in terms of defense in that he can play on the left side as a sub but you don't really want him starting. What I think you may see is Nico play a similar role to how they use Happ. So, it wouldn't shock me if he sees some time in the outfield sooner or later but don't mistake that for making him your starting CF. One thing with this cubs manager/front office is positions are fluid. If you hit you'll play and your position doesn't really matter. What matters is who else is hitting and you figure out the rest from there.

Additionally, if I'm right about him basically playing a Happ like role, I again wonder if Happ may get moved this offseason if they choose to go after say Machado. There's plenty of time to speculate on that later but I do wonder what sort of return you could get pitching wise for Monty + Happ. You'd likely need some prospects as well for a deal to make sense but if they go with Lester, Hendricks, Q, and I think it's likely they pick up Hamels option, they are set up fairly well but could use a bit younger pitching. And given as things stand right now you're probably either cutting Chatwood or if you don't want to eat his deal you're likely hiding him as a long guy in the BP. That's kind of Monty's thing.

 

[CSF77]

On Nico: more of a prep thing as he moves up. SS he has but CF is opertunity and it doesn’t hurt learning now vs when Joe gets his grips on him and tosses him raw out there.

Machado: he is a 3B. Bryant would have to be moved to LF perm for that to happen. I really don’t see them going this direction unless injury forces it then it will be Schwarber on the block vs Happ.

 

[beckdawg]

On Nico: more of a prep thing as he moves up. SS he has but CF is opertunity and it doesn’t hurt learning now vs when Joe gets his grips on him and tosses him raw out there.

Machado: he is a 3B. Bryant would have to be moved to LF perm for that to happen. I really don’t see them going this direction unless injury forces it then it will be Schwarber on the block vs Happ.

Re: nico, They may not feel he has the right tools for that. I mean judging by the scouting grades he's probably fast enough but his arm is a bit on the weaker side. Like I said, it wouldn't surprise me if he can play there some but I wouldn't go around expecting them to start him there every day. Typically speaking when they draft guys they stay at one position unless it's a SS -> 2B move. SS -> CF doesn't happen often for any team let alone the cubs.

As for Bryant, I'd put him in RF. My idea would basically be Heyward is your starting CF with Bryant in RF and Schwarber in LF. on some days you're not going to play Schwarber so then sure you move Bryant to LF and Heyward to RF with Almora in. Some days you're going to have to give Baez/Machado/Russell days off so you can also bring in Bryant to the infield then as well. But from a skillset stand point Machado makes more sense to me than Harper. He's a high contact bat in a line up that desperately needs those types of hitters.

 

[CSF77]

Re: nico, They may not feel he has the right tools for that. I mean judging by the scouting grades he's probably fast enough but his arm is a bit on the weaker side. Like I said, it wouldn't surprise me if he can play there some but I wouldn't go around expecting them to start him there every day. Typically speaking when they draft guys they stay at one position unless it's a SS -> 2B move. SS -> CF doesn't happen often for any team let alone the cubs.

As for Bryant, I'd put him in RF. My idea would basically be Heyward is your starting CF with Bryant in RF and Schwarber in LF. on some days you're not going to play Schwarber so then sure you move Bryant to LF and Heyward to RF with Almora in. Some days you're going to have to give Baez/Machado/Russell days off so you can also bring in Bryant to the infield then as well. But from a skillset stand point Machado makes more sense to me than Harper. He's a high contact bat in a line up that desperately needs those types of hitters.

Nico: Not sure on arm but seeing him come in as a SS a plus arm is pretty much required. Learning routes can be taught.

Bryant: I would have to see him out there more. He has the arm for it.

Heyward: He is a avg CF at best. Downgrade to Almora. I almost would be calling them a wash when you weight all of the factors.

 

[beckdawg]

Nico: Not sure on arm but seeing him come in as a SS a plus arm is pretty much required. Learning routes can be taught.

Bryant: I would have to see him out there more. He has the arm for it.

Heyward: He is a avg CF at best. Downgrade to Almora. I almost would be calling them a wash when you weight all of the factors.

He doesn't have a plus arm. His arm is average at best. That's part of the reason the talk leading into the draft was whether or not he stays at ss. And even if you have a plus arm at SS, it's not the same as having a plus arm in the outfield because they are different kinds of throws.

 

[beckdawg]

fangraphs guys have a podcast and in the most recent one they had some interesting things to say about scouting. Here's the short version... Houston basically doesn't scout from the way they talked. I've mentioned this before but it's still interesting. There's other teams who just don't even bother scouting above full season leagues(A or higher). They mentioned SF and the Mets as two teams in particular and brought up some interesting points in that if you think a certain team may be getting a disappointing return in a trade it may very well be because they just don't have scouting reports on guys in the low minors. That's a pretty crazy statement but given Kiley has worked in multiple front offices, it's probably true. Eric wasn't entirely sure(he lives in AZ and covers a lot of the rookie league stuff there) but he didn't think the cubs were scouting there but the way they were talking at the time is that some teams wont scout low level prospects when they are in a winning window and instead shift resources to the higher minors and when the window closes they move that scouting back down some.

They also brought up Roederer again. The short version of that is they thought he was hurt near the end of the evaluation period so not all teams saw him when decision makers need to. They said that the scouts who like him wouldn't say anything about him for obvious reason and the scouts that didn't really like him heard rumors of the ones who did thinking he was Andrew Benintendi. I've also read before that apparently the cubs scouts were the highest on him probably by a round or so.

I really recommend the podcast as it's pretty insightful. Another unrelated talk they had was about how good Wander Franco is. They had started a talk about Acuna/Soto/Vlady jr. and mentioned that at the same point in development Vlady jr. was seen as a potential 1B only type guy who could mash. Franco is seen as a legit SS with great speed. Franco out hit Vlady at a similar level. Earlier in this talk they ran through a bunch of players who were as good as Soto/Acuna and the basica floor was something like Jason Heyward with ceiling being like ARod/Griffey jr. They weren't entirely sold yet but mentioned Franco may be better than those two which would be crazy.

 

[CSF77]

fangraphs guys have a podcast and in the most recent one they had some interesting things to say about scouting. Here's the short version... Houston basically doesn't scout from the way they talked. I've mentioned this before but it's still interesting. There's other teams who just don't even bother scouting above full season leagues(A or higher). They mentioned SF and the Mets as two teams in particular and brought up some interesting points in that if you think a certain team may be getting a disappointing return in a trade it may very well be because they just don't have scouting reports on guys in the low minors. That's a pretty crazy statement but given Kiley has worked in multiple front offices, it's probably true. Eric wasn't entirely sure(he lives in AZ and covers a lot of the rookie league stuff there) but he didn't think the cubs were scouting there but the way they were talking at the time is that some teams wont scout low level prospects when they are in a winning window and instead shift resources to the higher minors and when the window closes they move that scouting back down some.

They also brought up Roederer again. The short version of that is they thought he was hurt near the end of the evaluation period so not all teams saw him when decision makers need to. They said that the scouts who like him wouldn't say anything about him for obvious reason and the scouts that didn't really like him heard rumors of the ones who did thinking he was Andrew Benintendi. I've also read before that apparently the cubs scouts were the highest on him probably by a round or so.

I really recommend the podcast as it's pretty insightful. Another unrelated talk they had was about how good Wander Franco is. They had started a talk about Acuna/Soto/Vlady jr. and mentioned that at the same point in development Vlady jr. was seen as a potential 1B only type guy who could mash. Franco is seen as a legit SS with great speed. Franco out hit Vlady at a similar level. Earlier in this talk they ran through a bunch of players who were as good as Soto/Acuna and the basica floor was something like Jason Heyward with ceiling being like ARod/Griffey jr. They weren't entirely sold yet but mentioned Franco may be better than those two which would be crazy.

A good Comp for Roederer and Davis is a young Yelch and Cain.

 

[beckdawg]

A good Comp for Roederer and Davis is a young Yelch and Cain.

Yellich sorta works for Roederer but I don't think Cain does. Davis isn't really like either of those.... well a better way to say this is we have no idea what Davis is yet. The thing is most people with speed are like 6 foot tops. There's some guys in the 6-2/180 range like Cristian Pache, Jordyn Adams, Taylor Trammell, Bubba Thompson, Derek Hill...etc with 70-80 grade speed. There's not a lot of guys with plus speed who are 6-3 or taller. Just looking at the fangraphs ratings because they have sortable ratings the list of guys with 60+ speed over 6-3 are

Buddy Reed(6' 4" / 210 70 speed)
Quentin Holmes(6' 3" / 175 70 speed)
Connor Scott(6' 4" / 180 70/65 speed)
Parker Meadows(6' 5" / 185 70 / 65 speed)
Luis Robert(6' 3" / 185 60 speed)
Monte Harrison(6' 3" / 220 60 speed)
Kristian Robinson(6' 3" / 190 60 speed)
Marcus Wilson(6' 3" / 175 60 speed)
Jake McCarthy(6' 3" / 195 60 speed)
Delvin Perez(6' 3" / 175 60 speed)
Ryan Cordell(6' 4" / 195 60 speed)
Jared Oliva(6' 3" / 187 60 speed)
Josh Lowe(6' 4" / 205 60 speed)
Thomas Jones(6' 4" / 195 60 speed)
Nick Schnell(6' 3" / 180 60 speed)
Brandon Marsh(6' 4" / 210 60/55 speed)
Cole Tucker(6' 3" / 200 60/55 speed)
Evan White(6' 3" / 205 60/55 speed)
Jake Holmes(6' 3" / 185 60/55 speed)

And that's it. Davis is 6' 4" / 175. He also has 60 raw power. Of those guys above Harrison, Schnell, Marsh, Lowe, Jones, and Meadows has 60 raw power. Robert has 65 raw power. Robinson has 70 raw power. And that's of basically any player at any position on prospects worth grading in the minors. Of those few guys, the remaining group with a 60 or better arm are Harrison, Schnell, Lowe, Marsh, Robert and Robinson. So, it's a pretty rare skillset. To put that size in perspective, Bryce Harper is 6' 3" / 220. Bryce Harper isn't a 60 runner. Trout is 6' 2" / 235 and probably is at least a 60 runner.

That's kind of the issue. Most guys who have his size and power don't run well. The ones that do and can hit are franchise players. He hit .298/.431/.333 over 72 PAs in Mesa with 13.9%/16.7% bb/k. 72 PAs at a low level isn't much go off of but the bb/k looks good if it's real. But the range of outcomes for him is immense. He could turn into Monte Harrison who's a guy with similar size/tools and hit grade but who hasn't quite put everything together. On the other hand, if he does figure out his hit tool.... the sky is the limit with his skills.

 

[CSF77]

Ya 6’4” 175 with a 70 run tool is pretty outrageous. I would think that they should focus on his other skills. The speed should be decent after putting on more size.

Doug Glanville 6’2” seems his current projection.