Cubs Farm System And Prospects Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

Jonathan sierra is hitting .286/.333/.357 thus far. He could really rise up ranks if he continues to hit like that avg/obp wise because he has massive raw power that isn't showing up yet in games. Apparently a long lever guy who typically take a while to come around power wise.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs: Brailyn Marquez, LHP (No. 3) -- 3 2/3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K (Class A South Bend)
Behind a fastball that was hitting 97-98 mph, the 20-year-old lefty kept Great Lakes out of the hit column for 3 1/3 frames, though he did hit a pair of batters along the way. He departed the outing after a two-out walk in the fourth inning, finishing with 59 pitches (37 strikes).

 

[beckdawg]

Fabian Pertuz, SS, Cubs Age 18 | B-T: R-R | Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 170 | Signed: Colombia, 2017.

Pertuz trained in Colombia with former big shortstop Orlando Cabrera before signing with the Cubs in 2017 for $300,000, the maximum bonus they could give while under the penalty. The Cubs sent fellow 2017 signings Luis Verdugo and Reivaj Garcia to the Rookie-level Arizona League last year, so they kept Pertuz in the DSL to get him everyday reps at shortstop, with the Cubs getting strong production from Pertuz and fellow shortstop Pedro Martinez on their other DSL club. Pertuz showed an advanced offensive approach for his age. He has a knack for the barrel and controls the strike zone, drawing more walks than strikeouts last year. He has mostly gap power now, with the strength projection to grow into average power eventually. How big Pertuz gets could dictate his future position. He's an average runner who doesn't have the typical first-step quickness teams often prefer at shortstop, but he's also a smart, heads-up player with good defensive instincts, along with the actions and strong arm for the position. If he goes to third or second base, he has the defensive attributes to be a potentially above-average defender at either spot with the offensive upside to possibly fit there as well.

From baseball america's top 20 DSL prospects from 2018

 

[beckdawg]

Riley Thompson is looking really strong. First 3 outings went 4.2 ip 6 hits 1 ER 0 bb, 4 k's, 5 ip 4 hits 1 walk 0 er 5 k and 5 ip 3 hits 0 er/walks and 5 ks. Since turning pro that gives him 39 k's in 40 ip with 10 walks 37 hits and 9 earned. If A+ and AA weren't so packed he'd likely already be moving up.

Book on him as I recall from the draft was he didn't really have a third pitch as of yet but his fast ball and curve ball were enough to making him at worst an interesting reliever. Hard to tell from stats how well it at all that third pitch development is going but I mean results are nice.

 

[DanTown]

The further you get removed from the majors, the harder it is to scout statlines in the minors. Because a guy can both have great numbers because he feasts on non-MLB level talent while also struggling against the better guys in the league. I get that we don't have much else to research but stats are horrible predictors of future MLB potential. Not saying don't use numbers but numbers alone are meaningless in A ball.

 

[beckdawg]

The further you get removed from the majors, the harder it is to scout statlines in the minors. Because a guy can both have great numbers because he feasts on non-MLB level talent while also struggling against the better guys in the league. I get that we don't have much else to research but stats are horrible predictors of future MLB potential. Not saying don't use numbers but numbers alone are meaningless in A ball.

Not really. Houston basically doesn't employ scouts anymore(think they only have like 10 in their org) and solely uses stats and they've been one of the more successful teams with young talent. Simple fact of the matter is if a guy is striking players out and he isn't grossly over age for the level he is in then it is quite reasonable to assume he'll continue to preform well as he moves up level to level with obvious cuts to production along the way. For instance, if you're a 160 wRC+ at A then you are maybe a 140 at AA an by the time you get to the majors expectations should probably be in the 120-130 range... etc.

What is important is knowing which stats are worth looking at. But that is also the case at looking at current major league players. And generally speaking that comes down to looking at walk and k rates. Those metrics translate very well to the majors. Obviously some guys early on as batters will k more than they ultimately end up doing at the majors but a guy with swing and miss issues in the minors is likely to be below average at that in the majors.

So, if you choose to ignore stats that's your choice but if you think they are meaningless I'd point you back to this very topic where I consistently sang the praises for Rollie Lacy last April-june. And when July rolled around and the cubs need to give up a prospect for Hamels who got dealt? Lacy. I'm not sitting here trying to be the "told you so" guy as many want to be. It was obvious to those who were paying attention to his stats. Simple fact of the matter is playing well gets you promoted. And being closer to the majors makes you far more interesting. So, while stats don't totally encompass what a player is and can be, if you're looking for guys who suddenly become names to watch stats are the way to go. The guys who stats don't matter much are known guys already.

 

[CSF77]

Not really. Houston basically doesn't employ scouts anymore(think they only have like 10 in their org) and solely uses stats and they've been one of the more successful teams with young talent. Simple fact of the matter is if a guy is striking players out and he isn't grossly over age for the level he is in then it is quite reasonable to assume he'll continue to preform well as he moves up level to level with obvious cuts to production along the way. For instance, if you're a 160 wRC+ at A then you are maybe a 140 at AA an by the time you get to the majors expectations should probably be in the 120-130 range... etc.

What is important is knowing which stats are worth looking at. But that is also the case at looking at current major league players. And generally speaking that comes down to looking at walk and k rates. Those metrics translate very well to the majors. Obviously some guys early on as batters will k more than they ultimately end up doing at the majors but a guy with swing and miss issues in the minors is likely to be below average at that in the majors.

So, if you choose to ignore stats that's your choice but if you think they are meaningless I'd point you back to this very topic where I consistently sang the praises for Rollie Lacy last April-june. And when July rolled around and the cubs need to give up a prospect for Hamels who got dealt? Lacy. I'm not sitting here trying to be the "told you so" guy as many want to be. It was obvious to those who were paying attention to his stats. Simple fact of the matter is playing well gets you promoted. And being closer to the majors makes you far more interesting. So, while stats don't totally encompass what a player is and can be, if you're looking for guys who suddenly become names to watch stats are the way to go. The guys who stats don't matter much are known guys already.

There is more to it. Looking at numbers just gives a end product. There is a process involved to get a pitcher to that level. And that takes coaching and using tech like statcast and current training Dynamics.

Data is a tool to judge results. But has little value in getting a kid to that level. More so a cut off gauge.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs: Nico Hoerner, SS (No. 2, MLB No. 95) -- 1-for-4, HR (Double-A Tennessee)
Hoerner, hitting .304 through 16 games, hit his first Double-A homer, but did so via an inside-the-park homer after lining a ball into the left-field corner and racing around the bases. Hoerner, 21, hit two homers in 14 games season before injuries cut his professional debut short. The Cubs drafted the former Stanford Cardinal with the 24th overall pick last June

 

[chibears55]

Cubs: Nico Hoerner, SS (No. 2, MLB No. 95) -- 1-for-4, HR (Double-A Tennessee)
Hoerner, hitting .304 through 16 games, hit his first Double-A homer, but did so via an inside-the-park homer after lining a ball into the left-field corner and racing around the bases. Hoerner, 21, hit two homers in 14 games season before injuries cut his professional debut short. The Cubs drafted the former Stanford Cardinal with the 24th overall pick last June

Looking good for him so far to be up next year

 

[CSF77]

Looking good for him so far to be up next year

Maybe. I would rather not be disappointed by self imposed demands

 

[CSF77]

Some player stuff:

AAA:
Pitching wise:
Clifton not on the 40 but used in short starts. 3 and limiting him to 8.1 IP. Not sure why as he has a 0.00 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He is the only guy that they have limited.

Edwards Jr 1.80 ERA and a .60 WHIP You can almost say good bye to Webster right now.

Rea is interesting. There might be something there but it is AAA and he has been to the show. Smoke and mirrors most likely.

Maples is typical. 1.25 WHIP...looks great until you see 2 hits and 8 BB.

Tony Barnette on rehab: 2 games 1.2 IP looks rough. 1 HB 1 BB no SO It is early and it might take some time with him.

Hitting wise Russell is at SS but they are moving him between SS/2B. 1-4 with a walk and a SO. He should be up soon also. I expect Zag demoted.

Short has been on the DL but was raking as a SS. .368/.455/.474 Machado is also interesting. 27 YO But has been around for a long time in the minors. Typical UI. 3104 AB's so he is what he is. .247/.326/.319 Basic glove that travels.

Happ still sucks....225/.313/.408...Brett Jackson anyone?

Rest are really not worth talking about right now.

Further down not really getting into that. I'm more concerned with the players that affect this year.


So I do see this as Russell and Edwards coming up together and Webster and Zag demoted. I believe they will do it on his suspension date of May 2. Barnette IMO is just filler unless he just takes off. Maples really has not turned a corner with his control. Happ might not even be trade capital right now. Him and Giambrone are in a rat race of who wins in most strike outs. Pretty ugly talent wise there.

2 wild cards are Rea and Clifton. Neither are on the 40 man but both look intriguing right now. If I had to guess they might push Clifton into the pen with Mills back in the rotation. He has a 1.32 WHIP kinda like Maples with walks right now 7 in 8.1 IP But the 14.1 SO/9 is eye popping as a potential late inning arm. Historically he has not been a terrible BB/9 guy so this might be a blip.

Underwood IMO will be axed this year. Failed just like Tseng.

 

[CSF77]

• Shortstop Nick Hoerner (No. 1 on the Cubs' Top 30 Prospects list, per MLB Pipeline) will likely head to Arizona later this week to continue his rehab from a left wrist injury and to begin a hitting program to tolerance. Pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay (Chicago's No. 4 prospect) is slated to start Friday for Triple-A Iowa.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs: Oscar De La Cruz, RHP (No. 22) – 6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 2 K, 1-for-2, HR (Double-A Tennessee)
De La Cruz did a little bit of everything as he led the Smokies to a win over Jackson. Making his second start with Tennessee this season, De La Cruz threw 58 of his 96 pitches for strikes and pitched into the seventh inning for the first time this season. At the plate, he drove in Tennessee’s first run of the game with a solo homer, the first of his career.

 

[CSF77]

Cubs: Tyson Miller, RHP (No. 19) -- 7 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 8 K (Double-A Tennessee)
Miller, 24, was tagged for a pair of solo home runs but otherwise pitched well, striking out eight and throwing 67 of his 96 pitches for strikes in his longest start of the season for the Smokies. The 2016 fourth-round pick sits atop the Southern League leaderboard with a 1.17 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP, and he’s yet to give up more than two runs in any of his eight starts this season. He’s held hitters to a .163 clip, posting a 41/8 K/BB in 46 innings.

 

[zack54attack]

Ian Happ struggling in AAA

 

[zack54attack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1144043000257044482

 

[CSF77]

Worth noting

• Of the Cubs’ 2019 Draft class, one of the later choices has gotten off to the hottest start.

Zac Taylor, an outfielder whom the club selected in the 25th round, leads all 2019 draftees across baseball in homers this year. The University of Illinois product has slugged five in his first 36 at-bats.

• The Cubs have reportedly signed three of the Top 30 international prospects, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, on the first day of the international signing period. The club has not confirmed the signings.

The reported signees are catcher Ronnier Quintero (No. 6), shortstop Kevin Made (No. 11) and catcher Brayan Altuve (No. 30). The Cubs have had success over the past decade with international catching prospects signed on July 2; notably, Willson Contreras (2009) and Miguel Amaya ('15), the organization’s No. 2 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, were signed on the first day.

 

[DanTown]

Not really. Houston basically doesn't employ scouts anymore(think they only have like 10 in their org) and solely uses stats and they've been one of the more successful teams with young talent. Simple fact of the matter is if a guy is striking players out and he isn't grossly over age for the level he is in then it is quite reasonable to assume he'll continue to preform well as he moves up level to level with obvious cuts to production along the way. For instance, if you're a 160 wRC+ at A then you are maybe a 140 at AA an by the time you get to the majors expectations should probably be in the 120-130 range... etc.

What is important is knowing which stats are worth looking at. But that is also the case at looking at current major league players. And generally speaking that comes down to looking at walk and k rates. Those metrics translate very well to the majors. Obviously some guys early on as batters will k more than they ultimately end up doing at the majors but a guy with swing and miss issues in the minors is likely to be below average at that in the majors.

So, if you choose to ignore stats that's your choice but if you think they are meaningless I'd point you back to this very topic where I consistently sang the praises for Rollie Lacy last April-june. And when July rolled around and the cubs need to give up a prospect for Hamels who got dealt? Lacy. I'm not sitting here trying to be the "told you so" guy as many want to be. It was obvious to those who were paying attention to his stats. Simple fact of the matter is playing well gets you promoted. And being closer to the majors makes you far more interesting. So, while stats don't totally encompass what a player is and can be, if you're looking for guys who suddenly become names to watch stats are the way to go. The guys who stats don't matter much are known guys already.

The stats that Houston uses are not slash lines; they're advanced metrics that pick up things like spin rate on pitches, exit velocity and angle for hitters, and all other data that they can use. THAT data is valuable in determine a player's value; looking at slash lines and trying to say high numbers = better players isn't how anyone should do it. I appreciate the effort and the work that goes into compiling the stats and the results but I can judge that by looking at the baseball reference page.

It's a topic for another time but there is so much more advanced data in baseball now than even 5/10 years ago that I don't even know how much I can truly evaluate a guy anymore that I don't watch consistently. Of course I'd much rather have the data than my eyes to tell me what a guy is doing or isn't doing but I don't have that data so all I'm left with is the eye test.

And walk rates and K rates are terrible measures of future performance for the simple fact that minor league pitchers are far more likely to walk you because they lose command (cause you know, they're minor leaguers) and less likely to strike you out because again, they typically don't possess the greatest stuff. That's my point is that some guy in A/AA can probably face a future MLB caliber arm like 20% of the time he bats and struggle but dominate the 80% of guys who probably never make it out of the minors/the league they're in now and his slash lines look great.

That doesn't mean you use the eye test and solely scout via your eyes but that you use the data that generates the slash line (exit velocity, chase rate, contact rate, launch angle, take rate, etc) and not the results of that data.

 

[CSF77]

Danny Hultzen just got taken off the rehab list and has been reactivated at Iowa. It is a minor blip but could end up a nice story after his team Dr told him to hang them up in 2016 after his 2nd rotator cuff surgery.

 

[CSF77]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OutOfTheVines

Brailyn Marquez sets a record for strikeouts for South Bend since their affiliation with the #Cubs 6 IP 1 H 0 R 0 BB 14 K Ended with 8 straight Ks. Worked in the high 90s with his fastball throughout the game. Slider looked terrific. 71 pitches, 53 strikes.